Physical Books Will Be Gone in 5 Years?

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Physical books be gone in five years? Yeah, I doubt that.

"It will be in five years," said Negroponte. "The physical medium cannot be distributed to enough people. When you go to Africa, half a million people want books ... you can't send the physical thing."
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Let's see, you can't send books buy you can send them all a computer…with an internet connection…so they can download books onto an electronic device....that you'd have to send them as well. :rolleyes:
 
Not happening. I love technology as much as the next guy but I'm never replacing my books with Kindles and Nooks. I'm certain a lot of other people feel the same way.
 
Then after that the next step would be that we don't "own" the books that we buy, we're just renting them!

It's a load of shit, i'll never buy an ebook this decade, and probably well into the next.
 
What I'd argue is books have transitioned from being a common man's tool to a luxury item, and the computer has transitioned from being a luxury item to the common man's tool / reading apparatus.

It's much cheaper to produce and ship 1 laptop with digital copies of 300 books then it is to ship 300 books..
 
I print and bind what I want to read at work then read it at home.
 
200$ for a text book or 200$ for a low cost computer, well the computer sounds like a much better option. Now on the other hand, the real cost of the text book is only about 5-10$.
 
RyanLucier said:
What I'd argue is books have transitioned from being a common man's tool to a luxury item, and the computer has transitioned from being a luxury item to the common man's tool / reading apparatus.

It's much cheaper to produce and ship 1 laptop with digital copies of 300 books then it is to ship 300 books..
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Exactly. Steve fails economics 101. The cost of shipping computers is a one time cost vs the recurring costs of shipping books. The computers would pay for theirselves after a single ebook distribution.
 
sink257 said:
I'm guessing in 5 years time ebook piracy will be a major issue
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Why 5 years? You can already pirate a lot of eBooks on usenet in PDF I think. I've never looked, so don't quote me.
 
Azhar said:
Why 5 years? You can already pirate a lot of eBooks on usenet in PDF I think. I've never looked, so don't quote me.
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a lot of the old books are free on Amazon. I downloaded a few but never read them. i still prefer paper cause i can but it away and never lose my place.
 
I'm not for piracy, but what are the professors going to do when it's a choice between piracy vs. $200 textbook?


Regardless, books are here to stay.
 
bloodhawke83 said:
a lot of the old books are free on Amazon. I downloaded a few but never read them. i still prefer paper cause i can but it away and never lose my place.
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This is true..I download quote a lot of books from amazon straight to my HTC Evo..screen is big enough to read. I'm not sure if books will survive though, if anything the consumer would like a paper copy just because you can say 'I own it", on the other note..maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea for consumers to be able to buy or provide their own books for classes without having to be restricted to one source. (usually the school, pre college)
 
vengence said:
200$ for a text book or 200$ for a low cost computer, well the computer sounds like a much better option. Now on the other hand, the real cost of the text book is only about 5-10$.
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how do you get the real cost to only be $5 ? Somebody had to write the books, somebody had to edit the books. That takes time and money.

if you don't agree then go write history books, math books, science books and the rest for your local schools and only charge them $5 a book. or better yet, do it all on your computer and give them the books as pdf for free, after all it didn't cost you anything to write them as a pdf is free.
 
While I do read some ebooks (free stuff from Amazon) I'm never going to replace my physical books. I'm quite happy with my always growing collection of books. I'm willing to spend money on good hardcover books of series I like. eBooks and audio books are nice to have away from home (or to relax and fall asleep to in the case of audio books), but I prefer the real thing.

I still read physical magazines.
 
RyanLucier said:
It's much cheaper to produce and ship 1 laptop with digital copies of 300 books then it is to ship 300 books..
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It might be cheaper the produce, but the publishers still want to charge just as much (or even more) as the physical books.
 
Derangel said:
While I do read some ebooks (free stuff from Amazon) I'm never going to replace my physical books. I'm quite happy with my always growing collection of books. I'm willing to spend money on good hardcover books of series I like. eBooks and audio books are nice to have away from home (or to relax and fall asleep to in the case of audio books), but I prefer the real thing.

I still read physical magazines.
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i have 4 magazine subscriptions just for the restroom. :D
 
When you go to Africa, half a million people want books ... you can't send the physical thing.
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How about we ask someone like amazon.com if its possible to send 500,000 books anywhere on Earth. I swear the author assumes they all have to come in one package or not at all.

I'm not for piracy, but what are the professors going to do when it's a choice between piracy vs. $200 textbook?
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Professors probably couldn't care less as long as the student has the material and uses it. Its quite rare for professors to get any amount of the book money unless they wrote the book, or they're dicks and selling their photocopied lecture notes in the bookstore.

But take it from a professor, book distributors are quite aggressive with getting you to use their company's book. However I have yet to have any sort of "kickback" or reward even mentioned for choosing what book over another, thankfully so.
 
No thanks. Remove physical printing, and they can change the once permanent words at their whim. 1984 ring a bell?
 
bloodhawke83 said:
i have 4 magazine subscriptions just for the restroom. :D
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Only sub I have right now is GameInformer, but I'll occasionally pick up Doctor Who, GamePro, Wired, and the Time special edition things for reading. They do come in handy.
 
Parmenides said:
I'm not for piracy, but what are the professors going to do when it's a choice between piracy vs. $200 textbook?


Regardless, books are here to stay.
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That situation is already here.
I've been in classes where my classmates were able to find free PDF scans of the required textbooks online. Or where everyone chipped in for one used copy of the book, then just photocopied certain pages in the library.
 
Exavior said:
how do you get the real cost to only be $5 ? Somebody had to write the books, somebody had to edit the books. That takes time and money.

if you don't agree then go write history books, math books, science books and the rest for your local schools and only charge them $5 a book. or better yet, do it all on your computer and give them the books as pdf for free, after all it didn't cost you anything to write them as a pdf is free.
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From what I read (there's a pun there somewhere) publishers make something like a 15% margin on the price, while authors would be lucky to get 15% in royalties--depending on the contract, it could be as low as 5% of net (ie. 5% of the publisher's 15%).

This leaves, say 70-80% of the cover price for cash advances, proofing and editing, printing, distribution, marketing, bookstore markup, ... Considering the author already provides an electronic version of their work to the publisher nowadays, a LOT of that overhead--from printing on--could be eliminated.
 
bloodhawke83 said:
no, i was 1 years old then. :confused:
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It's a book title. Amazon removed 1984 from everyone's Kindle without their permission because of some financial or copyright screw-up with the publishers.

He could also be referring to the plot of the story in the book 1984 where everything and everyone was controlled by a central overlord - in this case, our books will be centrally controlled by an overlord. We'd be fed propaganda and some books would be banned or considered contraband.
 
Exavior said:
how do you get the real cost to only be $5 ? Somebody had to write the books, somebody had to edit the books. That takes time and money.

if you don't agree then go write history books, math books, science books and the rest for your local schools and only charge them $5 a book. or better yet, do it all on your computer and give them the books as pdf for free, after all it didn't cost you anything to write them as a pdf is free.
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So many discussions of piracy or digital distribution turn into this fallacy that the physical medium is the only expense of content. Printing books, creating CDs and DVDs, whatever the physical medium is, chances are it costs only a fraction of what the design/development/writing whatever that content is cost.
 
Azhar said:
It's a book title. Amazon removed 1984 from everyone's Kindle without their permission because of some financial or copyright screw-up with the publishers.

He could also be referring to the plot of the story in the book 1984 where everything and everyone was controlled by a central overlord - in this case, our books will be centrally controlled by an overlord. We'd be fed propaganda and some books would be banned or considered contraband.
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oh yeah, now i remember.
 
Azhar said:
It's a book title. Amazon removed 1984 from everyone's Kindle without their permission because of some financial or copyright screw-up with the publishers.

He could also be referring to the plot of the story in the book 1984 where everything and everyone was controlled by a central overlord - in this case, our books will be centrally controlled by an overlord. We'd be fed propaganda and some books would be banned or considered contraband.
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I was referring more to the second half of your statement. The printed word is more important then people make it out to be. If everything becomes digital and centrally controlled by a few sources (look at the idiot US media) then they can change the message at a whim. Animal Farm hit on this as well. Orwell was a smart man, and very prophetic in many ways.
 
nalc said:
So many discussions of piracy or digital distribution turn into this fallacy that the physical medium is the only expense of content. Printing books, creating CDs and DVDs, whatever the physical medium is, chances are it costs only a fraction of what the design/development/writing whatever that content is cost.
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retails markup the cost of the books, they have to make money too.
 
I am piloting several courses on iPads right now for my college. While I would find it hard to believe that this will be commonplace for 3rd-world countries who can't afford the physical books - let alone a secondary option, I can see a day where post-secondaty institutions will migrate over to eBooks.

We are working with several publishers now where they have incorporated some nice notation and highlighting abilities, in additon to being able to allow the proffessor to distribute assignments, exams and other courseware.

In 5 years, I could see a 90% adoption rate. Think of how many trees will be saved at this point? (Not a tree-hugger, but I am aware of it's effect on fuel inflation and sustainability.
 
I will happily buy an e-reader when:
  1. They are less then $100
  2. They come across an ideal design of comfort for device shape, feel, and screen aspect ratio
  3. High resolution non-backlit color display with screen refresh rate faster then .1 second
  4. Quality non-obtrusive touchscreen (unnoticeable)

That is when I will buy an e-reader. Actually, I predict this will be about 5-10 years away.
 
friedchicken said:
Think of how many trees will be saved at this point? (Not a tree-hugger, but I am aware of it's effect on fuel inflation and sustainability.
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You are aware that one cannot save trees and that they are a renewable resource.. right?
 
Apple branding asaide, don't you think that in 5 years, a $100 device will be as common as buying a calculator for school?
 
schizrade said:
You are aware that one cannot save trees and that they are a renewable resource.. right?
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You are aware that trees just don't fall down and turn into stacks of 8.5" x 11"? We can argue this point over PMs if you like. I don't want to derail the thread.
 
Exavior said:
how do you get the real cost to only be $5 ? Somebody had to write the books, somebody had to edit the books. That takes time and money.

if you don't agree then go write history books, math books, science books and the rest for your local schools and only charge them $5 a book. or better yet, do it all on your computer and give them the books as pdf for free, after all it didn't cost you anything to write them as a pdf is free.
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I'm talking about print cost, not writing cost. If you've already written a physics book for American students, then there is no (substantial) extra cost to distribute it (in english) to Africa other than printing & shipping.

Back down off the internet road rage, and relax.
 
vengence said:
I'm talking about print cost, not writing cost. If you've already written a physics book for American students, then there is no (substantial) extra cost to distribute it (in english) to Africa other than printing & shipping.

Back down off the internet road rage, and relax.
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i remember watching the news where people have a van and ride arounding printing books for people that can't afford it for free. they all had ebooks on their computers and used some printer and binding machine.
 
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