Peak AI: A One Percent Gain in NVIDIA Shares Now Exceeds the Company’s Peak Annual Earnings

[erek]

Hmm seems inflated, and I doubt it’s peaked

“We noted in a previous post that Apple and NVIDIA have not seen a single insider buy transaction in around a year. This lack of validation on the part of the most well-informed cohort does not bode well for the prospects of these two stocks' ongoing rally.

Is a "reversal to mean" type of move now in store for NVIDIA? I guess time will tell. Until then, the AI mania continues.”

Source: https://wccftech.com/peak-ai-a-one-percent-gain-in-nvidia-shares-now-exceeds-peak-annual-earnings/

 

[DukenukemX]

There's a group of people who do nothing but invest, and when everything looks like it's collapsing, they will not stop investing but find safe havens. Nvidia just so happens to be everyones favorite, without knowing anything about the companies past and how it got this high to begin with. Nvidia's success was dependent on crypto and crypto is dead. There's a reason why the RTX 4070 is half the price of a 4080, which has never happened before. Reality is starting to sink in for Nvidia.

 

[staknhalo]

and I doubt it’s peaked

 

[Lakados]

There's a group of people who do nothing but invest, and when everything looks like it's collapsing, they will not stop investing but find safe havens. Nvidia just so happens to be everyones favorite, without knowing anything about the companies past and how it got this high to begin with. Nvidia's success was dependent on crypto and crypto is dead. There's a reason why the RTX 4070 is half the price of a 4080, which has never happened before. Reality is starting to sink in for Nvidia.

They are ridiculously over valued right now but they have a lot of cool stuff on the go which is attracting investors.
New Datacenter contracts a few super computers and a slew of new government contracts as well as permission to sell GPU’s to China.
For AI they literally have no competition right now AMD’s current best datacenter card is more than 30 times slower than Nvidia’s in most Algorithms and almost 100 times slower using the ChatGPT 3.5 and 4 models.

NVidia’s recent breakthroughs with Path Tracing can’t be taken lightly either, research wise it’s a pretty big deal. Most had given up on real time path tracing back in the 90’s and had settled on real time Ray Tracing as the only viable goal. The path tracing algorithm (singular) as unlike ray tracing which needs an array of algorithms to fill a scene should use less silicon to accelerate while doing a better job and it’s applications in Media and Gaming are far more impactful than Ray Tracing can hope to be.

And NVidia’s recent financial report was pretty positive, no mining to be seen and AIB orders are in the gutter as they struggle to sell the craploads of 3000 stock they already have but revenue is up because of all the other things going on.

Over inflated for sure, but dependent on Crypto they are not.

 

[DukenukemX]

For AI they literally have no competition right now AMD’s current best datacenter card is more than 30 times slower than Nvidia’s in most Algorithms and almost 100 times slower using the ChatGPT 3.5 and 4 models.

Doesn't Google make their own AI chips? Didn't Tesla dump them for their own AI chip?

NVidia’s recent breakthroughs with Path Tracing can’t be taken lightly either, research wise it’s a pretty big deal. Most had given up on real time path tracing back in the 90’s and had settled on real time Ray Tracing as the only viable goal.

It's not too early to give up again.

The path tracing algorithm (singular) as unlike ray tracing which needs an array of algorithms to fill a scene should use less silicon to accelerate while doing a better job and it’s applications in Media and Gaming are far more impactful than Ray Tracing can hope to be.

The way Ray-Tracing works right now is like this. Firstly, games are still 100% rasterization. The Ray-Tracing you see is on top of rasterization. Secondly, Nvidia's implementation just casts fewer rays, and uses an algorithm to fill in the blanks. On top of that, Nvidia had to invent DLSS because it's still super slow. All that and people still can't tell the difference between a game with or without Ray-Tracing.

And NVidia’s recent financial report was pretty positive, no mining to be seen and AIB orders are in the gutter as they struggle to sell the craploads of 3000 stock they already have but revenue is up because of all the other things going on.

There's no mining because it's all proof of stack. You'll never see mining again.

Over inflated for sure, but dependent on Crypto they are not.

That's why Jensen Huang said AI 90 times.

 

[Lakados]

That's why Jensen Huang said AI 90 times.

Which is a shame, if he had said it a full 100 it unlocks an achievement and gives you an exclusive Skynet-themed leather jacket.

 

[LukeTbk]

How does that work:
What's more, a mere 0.5 percent gain in NVIDIA shares now equates to around $8 billion

Nvidia current market cap is 655 billions, 655*0.5/100 = 3.25 not 8 billions.

For 0.5% gain to be around 8 billion would not need a 1600 billions cap or so ?

 

[noko]

They are ridiculously over valued right now but they have a lot of cool stuff on the go which is attracting investors.
New Datacenter contracts a few super computers and a slew of new government contracts as well as permission to sell GPU’s to China.
For AI they literally have no competition right now AMD’s current best datacenter card is more than 30 times slower than Nvidia’s in most Algorithms and almost 100 times slower using the ChatGPT 3.5 and 4 models.

NVidia’s recent breakthroughs with Path Tracing can’t be taken lightly either, research wise it’s a pretty big deal. Most had given up on real time path tracing back in the 90’s and had settled on real time Ray Tracing as the only viable goal. The path tracing algorithm (singular) as unlike ray tracing which needs an array of algorithms to fill a scene should use less silicon to accelerate while doing a better job and it’s applications in Media and Gaming are far more impactful than Ray Tracing can hope to be.

And NVidia’s recent financial report was pretty positive, no mining to be seen and AIB orders are in the gutter as they struggle to sell the craploads of 3000 stock they already have but revenue is up because of all the other things going on.

Over inflated for sure, but dependent on Crypto they are not.

Huh? Financial report positive?

Good breakdown on this here: (He is always entertaining but with very keen instincts. If one want to skip the lead in, start around the 8 min mark. He breaks down the not so good report from Nvidia).

 

[LukeTbk]

The way Ray-Tracing works right now is like this. Firstly, games are still 100% rasterization. The Ray-Tracing you see is on top of rasterization. Secondly, Nvidia's implementation just casts fewer rays, and uses an algorithm to fill in the blanks. On top of that, Nvidia had to invent DLSS because it's still super slow. All that and people still can't tell the difference between a game with or without Ray-Tracing.

Is that true of say metro exodus Enhanced edition ?
https://www.4a-games.com.mt/4a-dna/in-depth-technical-dive-into-metro-exodus-pc-enhanced-edition

That look like a pre denoised quite RT heavy if not full RT light calculation, with the composition over it, not the other way around.

Maybe I do not understand what you mean

 

[Lakados]

Is that true of say metro exodus Enhanced edition ?
https://www.4a-games.com.mt/4a-dna/in-depth-technical-dive-into-metro-exodus-pc-enhanced-edition

View attachment 563836

That look like a pre denoised quite RT heavy if not full RT light calculation, with the composition over it, not the other way around.

Maybe I do not understand what you mean

You’re both right he was over simplifying it a little for his point but there are multiple ways to do it. You can choose how far you go. Some literally rasterize the whole scene then just let the RT draw shadows others take it a smidge further for surface reflection, others go balls to the wall render the static meshes like above then let the RT fill in the colours then use a filter to smooth things out so it’s not a static blob like an old UHF signal.

But Farcry 6 and Metro Exodus are perfect examples of the opposite ends of the spectrum.

 

[DukenukemX]

Is that true of say metro exodus Enhanced edition ?
https://www.4a-games.com.mt/4a-dna/in-depth-technical-dive-into-metro-exodus-pc-enhanced-edition

View attachment 563836

That look like a pre denoised quite RT heavy if not full RT light calculation, with the composition over it, not the other way around.

Maybe I do not understand what you mean

There are games that do it right, but it's not the norm. Quake 2 RT and Minecraft do it properly, but there's reasons for this. If you think about how many shortcuts are needed to do Ray-Tracing, it begins to look a lot less like Ray-Tracing and more like AI image filtering. There are also games that do Ray-Tracing without the need of the GPU. Minecraft Ray-Tracing is done on my Vega 56 on Linux. Fortnite has it too that doesn't use a GPU, and LUMEN does a pretty good job.

I feel that Ray-Tracing is another Physx that will ultimately be done by the CPU or at least CPU+GPU, because the performance is kinda trash. Might be another one of those, let the GPU do GPU things. Especially with how many CPU cores we might get with Intel and their big little core setup.

 

[socK]

Software Lumen just traces into a different data structure, that doesn't mean it's done on the CPU. It traces distance fields instead of triangles. It's all compute shaders instead of DXR.


This is the exact thing GPUs are literally made for as it's an embarrassingly parallel problem. A CPU tracer will never be remotely as fast.

 

[LukeTbk]

Fortnite has it too that doesn't use a GPU, and LUMEN does a pretty good job.

It does not use (in software mode) hardware that is RT specific, but it is still gpu shaders to render no ?

They specifiy you need a video card with Shader model 5 for Lumen in software mode to work which seem to indicate the gpu is used,, they also talked about the challenge to make Lumen work on the Series S because it only has 4 tflops fo gpu compute:
https://www.unrealengine.com/en-US/...umination-to-fortnite-battle-royale-chapter-4

And how they opmitise lumen on the gpu compute pipeline wait time, Lumen can run on hardware raytracing mode if there gpu RT specialized silicon is strong enough but that does not mean that software mode does not use a GPU for a task like that.

 

[DukenukemX]

It does not use (in software mode) hardware that is RT specific, but it is still gpu shaders to render no ?

I don't know. I assume it's done on the CPU since they label it as software. I've not found any info to explain how Lumen works.

 

[RamboZombie]

I don't know. I assume it's done on the CPU since they label it as software. I've not found any info to explain how Lumen works.

Well, to assume - is to make an ass out of u and me..

or as they say - assumption is the mother of all fuck ups!..

 

[Lakados]

I don't know. I assume it's done on the CPU since they label it as software. I've not found any info to explain how Lumen works.

I’ve responded to a few posts on this topic in other threads lumen is dope but certainly not CPU based.
A little over simplified but here it goes.
As a part of the UE5 toolset there is Nanite, you use that for processing meshes and textures and all that jazz. Part of what it does is calculate much of the properties for how light will interact with that object and stores those values with it. So when lumen comes along with its ray tracing it doesn’t need to nearly calculate as much because the approximate values are already there so it just pulls them saving hundreds if not thousands of calculations.
It’s not as accurate but by the time the other filters are done doing their job it’s close enough that it doesn’t matter.

It makes the asset files larger but part of it is the texture streaming pipeline so it will resize the assets for the target resolution during decompression so the developer only needs one set of assets instead of multiple ones so install sizes remain the same, ram and vram usage is then appropriate for what you are doing and the developer spends less on man hours doing work and has various computer systems do more which is ultimately cheaper.

But the system is then completely dependent on Direct Storage and Resizable Bar to be present and active otherwise the performance tanks.