PC Sales to Decline in 2019 Amid CPU Shortages, Weak GPU Market

Megalith

24-bit/48kHz
Staff member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
13,004
Don’t place your bets on the PC market growing in the coming future: marketing firms are predicting a 0.4 percent decline per year through 2023, with a potentially significant drop this year thanks to Intel’s CPU shortages and lukewarm interest in NVIDIA’s GPUs. While gaming hardware has managed to prop up the PC industry somewhat, the current buildup of inventory simply isn’t helping. Some say the crux of the issue is that people have no real reason to upgrade.

The real problem is, the PC market is mature. People aren’t buying machines for specific new features, at least not en masse. 5G and new display technology may move the needle for some people, but given the prices such technology would command in the near future, it’s unlikely we’ll see any significant jump in sales for these reasons alone. “Something compelling at the premium end” is damnably faint praise for an industry that once enjoyed record-breaking growth streaks. Looks like it’s all we’ve got.
 

maxz01

Limp Gawd
Joined
Aug 26, 2017
Messages
166
Yup no reason for me to upgrade because A) There aren't enough good games I care about, too many micro-transactions, DLC-laden multiplayer only games or just singleplayer games with open world endlessly grindy content because of microtransactions. Only new game I cared about recently was Hitman 2.

and B) computer hardware isn't improving at the rate it used to, back in the day when we'd get double the speed every generation. Nowadays we get maybe 30% at best per generation. A GTX 970 will suffice for a long time yet.
 

Amorius

n00b
Joined
May 10, 2014
Messages
15
Because Intel and Nvidia are the only sources to supply those 2 components. No really, that article never once mentioned AMD.

I do know that my company is prepping to do a desktop refresh at many of our locations at the end of this year to get rid of our 10+ year old PCs before upgrading everyone to Win10 (since 7's EOL is imminent).
 

NickJames

[H]ardness Supreme
Joined
Apr 28, 2009
Messages
6,662
Prices are higher than ever and yet the technology for which its built for is stagnant. It's just the usual cycle repeated by tech companies to keep profits high by price fixing every few years then letting supply flood the market at a deep discount. Rinse and repeat.
 

Rob94hawk

2[H]4U
Joined
Jul 20, 2002
Messages
2,127
I have no reason to build a new rig for myself. My 4770k & 780 GTX are doing just fine. Maybe when 4k, 5Ghz cpu's, & DDR5 ram becomes the norm.

But those are my own standards. I've been building new rigs for family.
 
Joined
Apr 17, 2007
Messages
772
oh thank god we finally have our required monthly "the end of the PC is coming!!!!" article. we almost made it to the 20th without being reminded how the PC market is going to implode in 3 years.... just like its been going to do for the last 10.


I wasnt sure what i was going to do with my day but now i can relax now that i know the end of the world is near... like usual....
 

trparky

Gawd
Joined
Jul 23, 2009
Messages
971
computer hardware isn't improving at the rate it used to, back in the day when we'd get double the speed every generation. Nowadays we get maybe 30% at best per generation.
Blame Intel for that happening. If they didn't sit on their asses and actually innovated there would be a reason to upgrade. Oh but no, Intel was shoveling the same four core-eight thread warmed over garbage for the last five years. Like really, what are we on now? 14nm++++++ (give or take a "+")? If you want to know why the PC industry is slow, LOOK AT INTEL!!!
 

oldmanbal

2[H]4U
Joined
Aug 27, 2010
Messages
2,161
I doubt Intel is going to do anything that will lower prices on new GPU tech. Their SSD's aren't cheap by any means. They're in the camp of 'people will pay more for intel' so despite more competition in the market, it may solidify the new pricing that Nvidia has standardized in the industry.
 

Uvaman2

2[H]4U
Joined
Jan 4, 2016
Messages
3,143
Blame Intel for that happening. If they didn't sit on their asses and actually innovated there would be a reason to upgrade. Oh but no, Intel was shoveling the same four core-eight thread warmed over garbage for the last five years. Like really, what are we on now? 14nm++++++ (give or take a "+")? If you want to know why the PC industry is slow, LOOK AT INTEL!!!
As the x86 torch bearer Intel has been a failure. It just took a while to see it. Their lack of capability is showing... Doesn't mean it will continue, but they haven't done x86 any favors. Only AMD has, but even if they execute perfectly AMD can only do so much..
 

steakman1971

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 22, 2005
Messages
2,433
My main system is a 2600k, 16 gb ram, and a 970 GPU. I think it's going on 8 years old? I might upgrade this year - but honestly, I'm not in a hurry and might not get around to it. I mostly play older games or indies (Nuclear Throne, Graveyard Keeper, Stardew Valley etc). Since a lot of the games I like don't even need a GPU, the 970 is overkill.
However, part of me loves new hardware and wants to upgrade. The younger (aka pre-family) would have done major upgrades every year. That person had more free time and disposable income. The now-me has obligations and has to justify purchases (my wife usually doesn't say anything, I just crunch numbers and make a decision myself).
All that said - I saw some killer deals this morning on AMD processors. I already bought a new case, PSU and Samsung 970 SSD on sales. I'm accumulating parts. Whenever I do upgrade, I'll have a collection of stuff I bought over time. Hopefully I use them before the warranties go bad :)
 

velusip

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Jan 24, 2005
Messages
1,577
My main system is a 2600k, 16 gb ram, and a 970 GPU. I think it's going on 8 years old? I might upgrade this year - but honestly, I'm not in a hurry and might not get around to it. I mostly play older games or indies (Nuclear Throne, Graveyard Keeper, Stardew Valley etc). Since a lot of the games I like don't even need a GPU, the 970 is overkill.
However, part of me loves new hardware and wants to upgrade. The younger (aka pre-family) would have done major upgrades every year. That person had more free time and disposable income. The now-me has obligations and has to justify purchases (my wife usually doesn't say anything, I just crunch numbers and make a decision myself).
All that said - I saw some killer deals this morning on AMD processors. I already bought a new case, PSU and Samsung 970 SSD on sales. I'm accumulating parts. Whenever I do upgrade, I'll have a collection of stuff I bought over time. Hopefully I use them before the warranties go bad :)
I'm in the same boat. I picked up this 1300X with the intention of upgrading since AMD said they were going to stick with the same socket for some time. I didn't upgrade to a a higher core count, passed on the Zen+, and I'm not sure I'll get a Zen2 either. Not because I don't want one ;) it's just not necessary.

Even back when I built this computer it was a complete sidegrade just to help out a family member by selling them my old PC for cheap (it was a Vishera 8 core + GTX980 and still running strong).
 

Burticus

[H]ardness Supreme
Joined
Nov 7, 2005
Messages
4,163
I have done some upgrades, I really didn't need them. But I wanted to. Silly? Yeah maybe, but I'd just blow the money at Starbucks or going out to eat anyway, might as well have current gen hardware.
 

jmilcher

[H]ardness Supreme
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
4,464
This thread is full of oft. Lol

While I don’t have the most high end blistering edge technology that I can’t afford, I have seen the difference in newer hardware vs let’s say my 970 and 4770k setup from years ago. Enough difference for me to get off my wallet.

But each time I also sold off my older parts.

I also don’t have time to play games all the time. And I don’t “need” the hardware either I suppose.

That said I did choose amd and a 2700x because of the supposed upgrade path with the socket. We shall see
 

Mode13

Gawd
Joined
Jun 11, 2018
Messages
746
oh thank god we finally have our required monthly "the end of the PC is coming!!!!" article. we almost made it to the 20th without being reminded how the PC market is going to implode in 3 years.... just like its been going to do for the last 10.


I wasnt sure what i was going to do with my day but now i can relax now that i know the end of the world is near... like usual....
I was getting worried the universe was about to explode as well. I can bring up usenet posts lamenting the death of PC gaming as far back as I can remember existing, but it always get's "saved" again... Shareware, DOOM, Duke3d/Quake and spinoffs, Diablo II, WoW, and now E-sports have been exploding ever since CS:GO came around.

The "Death" always comes in times like this when there is little innovation in PC hardware + rising prices all while the big console makers are probably gearing up to ship a new PC killing generation.
 

jmilcher

[H]ardness Supreme
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
4,464
I was getting worried the universe was about to explode as well. I can bring up usenet posts lamenting the death of PC gaming as far back as I can remember existing, but it always get's "saved" again... Shareware, DOOM, Duke3d/Quake and spinoffs, Diablo II, WoW, and now E-sports have been exploding ever since CS:GO came around.
BR type games, can’t forget those. Free to plays are the new model.
 

Mode13

Gawd
Joined
Jun 11, 2018
Messages
746
BR type games, can’t forget those. Free to plays are the new model.
Ah yes totally, I haven't jumped on that bandwagon yet but my nephew lives and breathes Fortnite.

I'm still on Borderlands 2, GTA: V and Dark Souls so I need about 4-5 years to catch up :p
 

oopspowsurprise

[H]Lite
Joined
Jan 21, 2012
Messages
104
There won't be a 'death' of the PC, it'll just 'evolve' to service based access and and streamed utilization from the cloud. Local installation and storage will be phased out. Recently there was the front page article showing Office 2019 vs Office 365 and how the service based Office 365 was better. So further foundation is being laid with respect to the service aspect.

You can see how we all transitioned will relatively little resistance to STEAM (and others...). Initially people complained. Today we don't even remember what we were complaining about. Now there are people willing to pay $60 for a game on STEAM without a physical box, or physical instructions, or even the game disc itself. It's second nature.

Realistically I think AMD/Intel/Nvidia won't go out of their way to one-up the other company for the masses anymore. Those years are gone. The target group is the enterprise. It is through catering to the enterprise that the PC and gaming as a service will come to light quicker. The increasing cost of Nvidia's GPUs I think reflect the future. In the near future, if you want great local gaming on your system, you are going to pay the piper. But if you pay for the GPU as a service, it would be loads cheaper and you could play your games on a variety of devices. And then year after year the price of a physical GPU will go higher and higher until it becomes a specialty item and it is completely phased out [think Office 2019 vs Office 365 style].
 

Biostud

n00b
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Messages
62
Extremely slow adaption of HDR displays and games that supports it.
Next to nothing in CPU singlecore performance.
Optane only launched as niche products with too small capacity or too expensive
GPU's first bought by all the miners, then launch new very expensive cards, where the main selling point only is supported by a few games.
And a huge back catalogue of cheap steam games including old AAA titles, you can play before shelling out for the newest games.
 
Top