Nvidia Postpones 3nm GPU Launch to 2025 Amid Economic Struggles and Dwindling PC Demand

staknhalo

staknhalo

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Nvidia's forthcoming 3nm GPUs, anticipated to be crafted via the TSMC 3nm chip procedure, will not be hitting the market until 2025, as reported by insider sources.

Economic upheavals and a descending trend in PC demand are cited as the primary factors contributing to this postponement. Notably, DigiTimes reveals that Nvidia is not alone in this delay, with AMD among other corporations also putting their 3nm production schedules on hold. Despite the industry-wide delay, Apple continues to move forward with their 3nm chip plans for the imminent iPhone 15 and the M3 system-on-chip for iMacs. This postponement from Nvidia implies there will be no fresh introductions to the GeForce GPU lineup for the coming two years.

Speculation is rife that the forthcoming Blackwell GPUs from Nvidia will feature a monolithic chip design, promising twice the speed of the RTX 40 series. Nonetheless, given the excess inventory from a shrinking demand for video cards, only minor advancements like the RTX 4090 Ti and 4080 Ti are projected for near-term release.
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You'll get your dessert 5k series after you finish your dinner buying 3k and 4k series inventory 😡

https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/n...onomic-struggles-and-dwindling-pc-demand.html
 
Shrinking demand = the market returning to normal.

It's not just NVIDIA. Every company needs to come to grips with the fact that the market conditions over the past 3 years were not organic. It was driven by the unnecessary response to a certain virus.
 
Doesn’t help that TSMC just finished announcing that the 3nm platform is having terrible yields and that their entire capacity isn’t even able to meet their contracted amount with Apple alone.
Due to bad yields TSMC is now charging Apple per viable chip and not per wafer as normal, they expect to increase yields 15-20% per year but it’s going to be 2025 before they reach that magical 80% success rate based on that rate.
Add the fact that the actual performance and power gains of the 3N node are only marginally above that of the 4N process while costing significantly more than the 4N process and there is no way to make it work.
 
Dwindling PC Demand is because of Nvidia's way over priced products. Even in 2025 they do offer 3nm. They will not the way they want it to. Again their prices.
 
Airbrushkid said:
Dwindling PC Demand is because of Nvidia's way over priced products. Even in 2025 they do offer 3nm. They will not the way they want it to. Again their prices.
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In economics "demand" is typically separated from prices and supply. But I get your point, although I don't know if I agree that nvidia is over-priced (because I dont know what it costs to make these bleeding edge products, AMD prices dont really seem that much better)

Analogy: Imagine demand is the vacuum in a tank, supply is pressure outside the tank, price is how open a valve in the tank is (inverse price anyways), and then inrushing current of air is product being purchased and moved from supply side to demand side. It's an analogy, and like all analogies it is wrong, but it might be useful.
 
Lakados said:
Doesn’t help that TSMC just finished announcing that the 3nm platform is having terrible yields and that their entire capacity isn’t even able to meet their contracted amount with Apple alone.
Due to bad yields TSMC is now charging Apple per viable chip and not per wafer as normal, they expect to increase yields 15-20% per year but it’s going to be 2025 before they reach that magical 80% success rate based on that rate.
Add the fact that the actual performance and power gains of the 3N node are only marginally above that of the 4N process while costing significantly more than the 4N process and there is no way to make it work.
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Come on, man, it says "twice the speed of the 40 series"! It'll probably be 4 times the price, too.
 
With games being released in such garbage condition you can't even brute force them to run well anymore. Might as well just rock an older system.
 
rgMekanic said:
Dry cleaning that jacket is getting fuckin expensive man!
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Negative, Jensen just requires more Teslas is all

mevreum.jpg



Edit:

Teslas....
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SourAmusedClumber-max-1mb.gif
 
Lakados said:
Doesn’t help that TSMC just finished announcing that the 3nm platform is having terrible yields and that their entire capacity isn’t even able to meet their contracted amount with Apple alone.
Due to bad yields TSMC is now charging Apple per viable chip and not per wafer as normal, they expect to increase yields 15-20% per year but it’s going to be 2025 before they reach that magical 80% success rate based on that rate.
Add the fact that the actual performance and power gains of the 3N node are only marginally above that of the 4N process while costing significantly more than the 4N process and there is no way to make it work.
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great... We will get a 4090 Super for 3200 bucks for certain now...
 
Most everything is overpriced at the moment and thus it sits. Nvidia knows there next gen won't sell in this current market for what they will want to charge.
 
If I were them I'd be holding off any more potential investment with TSMC whatsoever, they might be better off waiting for samsung 3nm
 
Decko87 said:
If I were them I'd be holding off any more potential investment with TSMC whatsoever, they might be better off waiting for samsung 3nm
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Why? Samsung is inferior in general compared to TSMC. You saying that because of a believed impending Chinese invasion?
 
Legendary Gamer said:
Why? Samsung is inferior in general compared to TSMC. You saying that because of a believed impending Chinese invasion?
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No I'm saying it because their cards aren't selling and they need to reduce costs. If blackwell isn't a massive generational leap but brings costs down they'll sell more. If 3nm TSMC is double their current wafer cost or even 50 percent more they need to exit.
 
Decko87 said:
No I'm saying it because their cards aren't selling and they need to reduce costs. If blackwell isn't a massive generational leap but brings costs down they'll sell more. If 3nm TSMC is double their current wafer cost or even 50 percent more they need to exit.
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Cool, I was just waiting for the next China invades argument. Which would be a travesty if it happens, just hope not.

The node size is gonna be expensive no matter who makes it.
 
NightReaver said:
and yet I bet people will still line up outside of Micro Center 4 hours early.
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What are you talking about? Everything not named the 4090 has been sitting on shelves, the 4070 ti maybe did okay? Even 4090s are piling up now.
 
Armenius said:
Shrinking demand = the market returning to normal.

It's not just NVIDIA. Every company needs to come to grips with the fact that the market conditions over the past 3 years were not organic. It was driven by the unnecessary response to a certain virus.
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Also could be waiting for China to take Taiwan before moving on to the next node. Wait, did I just say that?
 
The only people mourning this news were those willing to pay $3000 for a RTX 5090 in 2023/2024.
 
Decko87 said:
Okay, now do the 4070
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Midrange cards have typically been out for a week or two at most and not always even then... I assume you were around for video card launches before crypto was a thing, no? Are you being rhetorical?
 
Armenius said:
Shrinking demand = the market returning to normal.

It's not just NVIDIA. Every company needs to come to grips with the fact that the market conditions over the past 3 years were not organic. It was driven by the unnecessary response to a certain virus.
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It was also due to crypto. People complained about the mining, but now that GPU mining is (again) no longer as profitable, you have faster cards to look forward to.
 
GoldenTiger said:
Midrange cards have typically been out for a week or two at most and not always even then... I assume you were around for video card launches before crypto was a thing, no? Are you being rhetorical?
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the 4080, 4070 ti, nor 4070 ever sold out.
 
GoldenTiger said:
As I said "at most" and even then not always ;). Also, how is having ample stock a bad thing now?
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The reason there's ample stock is the bad thing in this particular case, almost like context matters.
 
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Lakados said:
There is absolutely no means TSMC has to produce NVidia any 3nm chips before 2025 so any pricing or market conditions are 100% irrelevant.
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It absolutely has to do with market conditions. The rabbit hole goes much deeper when you look at it carefully. Firstly, the past several years of GPU sales were largely due to crypto demand. Not just crypto demand, but everyone getting government checks that used them to buy toys like graphic cards, which were probably used to crypto mine. That's over now, and both AMD and Nvidia have a surplus of hardware that isn't selling as quickly as they'd hope. Not only that but Intel has entered the market, and is doing better than I'd expect. As bad as Intel is, I was expecting them to do worse. PowerVR is back in the form of Chinese graphic cards, which is something I did predict when Apple screwed them and left their corpse, only to be resurrected as yet another graphics card competitor. Intel and Chinese PowerVR both suck, but they will suck less with time and will likely be cheap. Market conditions will get worse, which may force Nvidia to rethink a lot of things by 2025. Time is not working in Nvidia's favor.
 
I totally believe this. They need to sell these GPUs as long as they can since demand seems to be low right now given how easy they are to get. Plus they are plenty fast to last another 2 years. Would be a good play making people wait a bit longer to create bit more fomo for the next gen.
 
DukenukemX said:
It absolutely has to do with market conditions. The rabbit hole goes much deeper when you look at it carefully. Firstly, the past several years of GPU sales were largely due to crypto demand. Not just crypto demand, but everyone getting government checks that used them to buy toys like graphic cards, which were probably used to crypto mine. That's over now, and both AMD and Nvidia have a surplus of hardware that isn't selling as quickly as they'd hope. Not only that but Intel has entered the market, and is doing better than I'd expect. As bad as Intel is, I was expecting them to do worse. PowerVR is back in the form of Chinese graphic cards, which is something I did predict when Apple screwed them and left their corpse, only to be resurrected as yet another graphics card competitor. Intel and Chinese PowerVR both suck, but they will suck less with time and will likely be cheap. Market conditions will get worse, which may force Nvidia to rethink a lot of things by 2025. Time is not working in Nvidia's favor.
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The market could be the hottest it’s ever been and it wouldn’t matter, there is nobody who can make a 3nm chip right now. There is no amount of money NVidia can pay to get a 3nm chip produced unless Apple voluntarily gives up their TSMC contract which Apple can’t do.
Market conditions may get worse, they may improve, aliens might invade and turn us into house pets. Regardless of market factors there is no company who could get Nvidia any useful supply of a 3nm chip before 2025.
 
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