IdiotInCharge

NVIDIA SHILL
Joined
Jun 13, 2003
Messages
14,679
If the Ryzen 2 leaks are close to the truth

Then they might actually catch up with Skylake while Intel moves forward with their new architecture?

I'm quite happy that they are catching up, mind you, but I don't see their efforts as game changing. Intel's biggest problem is their fab capacity, wherein their transistion forward from 14nm has been troublesome, but that too is rumored to be over. Assuming they get back to 'the old Intel' and start shipping enough product to satisfy demand, I don't see 'AMD Skylake' making that big of a difference.
 

ManofGod

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Oct 4, 2007
Messages
12,616
Yep, everyone's stock is taking a huge hit. You won't hear that on CNN or Fox News. Home, Auto, gaming industry, and etc. The cost of living has reached peak fuck you and people are now cutting back.

Proof? Really?

As we approach the recession, cheaper will be better.

Recession? What recession? Oh, are you one of those folks that predict the bottom is going to fall out at any moment?
 
Joined
Jan 27, 2015
Messages
520
I wonder if "Sales and profit continue to grow -- just not fast enough to meet investors' lofty expectations" means the race to meet those lofty expectations resulted in RTX card overpricing and quality shortcuts on the 2080 cards.

Don't take this the wrong way, but If you think there is a reason for all of this you are wrong...…….The stock market and Ticket prices and worth are based purely on speculation, assumption, and perception, its a complete sham and has been for quite some time.

RTX pricing is based on an expensive fab process 12nm with that amount of shit, essentially half regular GTX CUDA cores and then the other half being specialized Computational Cores left a huge chip that is expensive to make, also specialized Computational Cores=Workstation part. I am willing to bet not only did they just eat some of the workstation market with these cards, so you really can't say its overpriced because to be honest we don't know what it cost them we can only speculate.
 

umeng2002

Gawd
Joined
May 23, 2008
Messages
923
nVidia dedicated like half of the silicon for GameWorks™ level features. Imagine if they just did that entire die with CUDA cores and saved RTX for 7nm.
 

STEM

Gawd
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
614
Everyone's stock is taking a huge hit. Probably doesn't help that Nvidia's RTX cards are overpriced but we're probably approaching a recession and that plays a bigger role in their stock tumble.

Why would you call it a recession when stock prices are getting back to normal? Stock prices have been grossly inflated for the past couple of years, and each and every company's solution was to increase prices quarter after quarter. On that note, I hope Jensen Huang chockes on his new $2500 Titan card and that someone spills cheap red wine on his leather jacket. Oh, and fuck RTX!
 

mbelue

Limp Gawd
Joined
Apr 11, 2017
Messages
216
Why is anyone surprised that investors didn't understand the chip/tech industry?

Those idiots saw GPUs as money making machines and when the funny money turned out to have little use or value investors are acting defrauded.

Fools.
Tech goes in cycles, boom and bust. It's great to jump in on the uphill but you have to get out before the drop cause that shit happens fast.

There are no money making machines. Nothing lasts forever and buying stock isn't a guarantee of profit.

When will these companies learn that people buying stock enabled them to make money and not act like the stock sales is income?
 

FlawleZ

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Oct 20, 2010
Messages
1,549
You reap what you sow. What matters now is what has Nvidia learned and what do they plan to do about it.

With Intel's momentum in the school zone, Nvidia's business and financial issues (wont even mention Turing issues), and the success of Ryzen, there couldnt be a more perfect storm for AMD. With Lisa Su behind the wheel they just might have a chance to really snowball their business and market share.
 

notarat

2[H]4U
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
2,403
The way it's meant to Tank
ptx.jpg
 

infin@

Gawd
Joined
Oct 18, 2006
Messages
812
Worst December since the great depression. I sold 30% of my stocks during the last bounce back in November and reestablished my position with AMD and NVDA at $18 and $145 this week, its depressing what happened after the Fed interest hike but I think it was the right move. Just wish I waited a bit longer before re-buying back in. Hoping CES brings a bump for these two stocks, more likely for AMD I think though. Oh well, projections have AMD at $23 and NVDA at $200 although those will likely be revised soon...Hang in there everyone, it will come back. Lots of opportunity in 2019. Merry Christmas and happy investing. Its only money, family is the most important!
 

Caeden

n00b
Joined
Oct 7, 2018
Messages
22
Soooo... I am confused by this.
Yes, the bubble on crypto currency has popped, but that is such a small part of what nVidia does. I mean, the reason for the extreme prices of cards was because nVidia was not making consumer GPUs due to professional processing demand for AI research and self driving vehicles. And the inflated price on the GPUs went to vendors, not to nVidia... they really saw very little profit from the whole crypto mining fad, especially while making money hand over fist in the pro market. I mean, why sell a GPU for $500-1,000 (of which nVidia only saw $3-700 of) when you can sell essentially the same chip on a more rugged board for $3,000-10,000?

So I guess the quesion is what has fallen apart in the AI markets that has dropped their demand so much? I thought the main push for RTX hardware was to improve these pro sales... the fact that it can execute MS' ray tracing fairly efficiently for a consumer product is just a plus. The value for nVidia is still very much alive and well, people selling right now is a bit foolish.
 

infin@

Gawd
Joined
Oct 18, 2006
Messages
812
The VIX hitting a 10 month high yesterday is a big part of it, as previously mentioned lots of people bought in not understanding the chip market. I agree though, NVDA has a solid business established, RTX mess aside.
 

haste.

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 11, 2011
Messages
1,651
It was not a good day on the market (for me).

Day, try week. I feel you man. I took a lot of blows but like you said it's the long run. I'm young enough to wait the cycle out, but it would be very painful if you were at retirement age and kept riding the greed wave without the foresight to move a good portion liquid/safe.
 

nightanole

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Feb 16, 2003
Messages
2,025
Worst December since the great depression. I sold 30% of my stocks during the last bounce back in November and reestablished my position with AMD and NVDA at $18 and $145 this week, its depressing what happened after the Fed interest hike but I think it was the right move. Just wish I waited a bit longer before re-buying back in. Hoping CES brings a bump for these two stocks, more likely for AMD I think though. Oh well, projections have AMD at $23 and NVDA at $200 although those will likely be revised soon...Hang in there everyone, it will come back. Lots of opportunity in 2019. Merry Christmas and happy investing. Its only money, family is the most important!

Define lots of opportunity? Growth/guidance will be lower in 2019 vs 2018. There is 3 trading days left in the year, and you can tax loss harvest on friday. Even if this friday is the same level as last friday, the market will have to go up about 22% next year, to meet last septembers highs, and it has to do that with slower growth. Lets say that next year is a massive 30-35% increase, that is what, 5-7% growth year over year from jan 1st 2018 to jan 1st 2020?

About the only good thing is us non boomers are still buying in via 401k etc.

Im not going to start shitting the bed till around 2025. At that time just about everyone from the pension generation will be retired and pulling from their pension. That is also the time most expect 1/3 -1/2 of USA non government pensions to be insolvent, because they have promised 9% returns beyond inflation else they cant pay out full benefits. The problem with that is "old school" pensions relied on bonds and dividends, and only promised 6-7% returns. After the 2008 show, boom bonds are negative gains and and dividends are only 3-4% on the dam good ones. So all the pensions has to switch to higher risk by buying stocks.

So the question is, what happens to boomers/pensioners when gen X/Y cant afford to buy their stocks, or simply wont and choose to invest in other outlets?
 
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infin@

Gawd
Joined
Oct 18, 2006
Messages
812
Define lots of opportunity? Growth/guidance will be lower in 2019 vs 2018. There is 3 trading days left in the year, and you can tax loss harvest on friday. Even if this friday is the same level as last friday, the market will have to go up about 22% next year, to meet last septembers highs, and it has to do that with slower growth. Lets say that next year is a massive 30-35% increase, that is what, 5-7% growth year over year from jan 1st 2018 to jan 1st 2020?

About the only good thing is us non boomers are still buying in via 401k etc.

Im not going to start shitting the bed till around 2025. At that time just about everyone from the pension generation will be retired and pulling from their pension. That is also the time most expect 1/3 -1/2 of USA non government pensions to be insolvent, because they have promised 9% returns beyond inflation else they cant pay out full benefits. The problem with that is "old school" pensions relied on bonds and dividends, and only promised 6-7% returns. After the 2008 show, boom bonds are negative gains and and dividends are only 3-4% on the dam good ones. So all the pensions has to switch to higher risk by buying stocks.

So the question is, what happens to boomers/pensioners when gen X/Y cant afford to buy their stocks, or simply wont and choose to invest in other outlets?

The opportunity lies in getting in on stocks that have dropped considerably in the last 2 months. It may take a year or two for things to come back but if the mortgage crisis of 2008 showed us anything its that the markets can and will bounce back. Living in Canada we have different investment vehicles (no 401K), but I do agree with the baby boomers shifting there investments into more short term focuses stocks are becoming more risky. Bonds have been brutal, I still own 15% in Canadian bank bond funds that have performed below the inflation rate for the last 2 years, but the Canadian economy as whole has been stagnant dues to the suffering of our energy and manufacturing sectors. I'm still relatively young (35) and try stay as diversified as I can with property, stocks, dividend stocks, bonds and yes even crypto. I guess we will just have to monitor the markets and re-balance often. I remain positive though even if I'm now in the red for 2018.
 

Danny Dawg

Gawd
Joined
Nov 5, 2008
Messages
811
Don't take this the wrong way, but If you think there is a reason for all of this you are wrong...…….The stock market and Ticket prices and worth are based purely on speculation, assumption, and perception, its a complete sham and has been for quite some time.

RTX pricing is based on an expensive fab process 12nm with that amount of shit, essentially half regular GTX CUDA cores and then the other half being specialized Computational Cores left a huge chip that is expensive to make, also specialized Computational Cores=Workstation part. I am willing to bet not only did they just eat some of the workstation market with these cards, so you really can't say its overpriced because to be honest we don't know what it cost them we can only speculate.


Yes, but the investor makes that good faith investment (whether it be speculative, based on assumptions or perceptions) believing that the company is doing things above board . . . the investor has no idea of the games going on inside the company . . . .and there are definitely fingerprints all over this one IMO.,
 
Joined
Jan 27, 2015
Messages
520
Yes, but the investor makes that good faith investment (whether it be speculative, based on assumptions or perceptions) believing that the company is doing things above board . . . the investor has no idea of the games going on inside the company . . . .and there are definitely fingerprints all over this one IMO.,

Very true. Remember though payoffs for investments are not insured meaning there is no gaurantee, to assume there is no risk is folly.

I will say this much hopefully not pissing people off, but *IF you invest without knowing what you are investing into, you are gambling and an idiot, people like Buffet are not stupid and they either do alot of research or pay someone to do alot of research before even thinking of doing any kind of investments, not to say those people don't get burned but their odds are way in their favor by choice and design. Where as normal people need to double down on research ahead of time as most don't have the luxury of a stock pile of assets and money.

As many people have said to me before, there is zero reasoning for ignorance, and it is merely a fools game to risk without wanting or without the wisdom and intelligence needed to make choices based on informed fortitude. Some of the people I do rub shoulders with either personally or professionally have a habit of making you feel small for missteps.

If it looks like gold it doesn't do you any good when all it is is iron pyrite and you don't understand how you got swindled. Being cheated people will blame others or the government, but really they need only look into a mirror to see who is partly or fully to blame.

I forget who said it but "You can't predict the future, no one can; however, you can be prepared to be surprised by it."
 

nomas

Limp Gawd
Joined
Apr 19, 2015
Messages
250
NVDA will be in good company. With the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 February low decisively breached, you can expect much more downside across the board. May even rhyme with the dotcom and 2008 crash... The Dow can retrace to 14K ish, and the decade long rally would still be considered intact. It would be considered a "correction".

This is the bust part of the boom-bust cycle. Winter is here.
 

HAL_404

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Dec 16, 2018
Messages
1,240
Her face was sickly pale, her whole body lean and wasted, and she squinted horribly; her teeth were discoloured and decayed, her poisonous breast of a greenish hue, and her tongue dripped venom. … Gnawing at others, and being gnawed, she was herself her own torment. „ ~ Ovid (about Invidia) in Metamorphoses
She’s often portrayed in the color green, which is closely associated with envy. In folklore envy or the “evil eye” is the principal vice that motivates demons.

Image1.png
 

DukenukemX

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jan 30, 2005
Messages
6,040
Why would you call it a recession when stock prices are getting back to normal? Stock prices have been grossly inflated for the past couple of years, and each and every company's solution was to increase prices quarter after quarter. On that note, I hope Jensen Huang chockes on his new $2500 Titan card and that someone spills cheap red wine on his leather jacket. Oh, and fuck RTX!
I'm going by recent news like how auto sales are indeed down 6%, which might explain why Ford and GM decided to stop making cars. Housing sales are down 7.8% and is continuing to decline. Homes in the North East dropped by 33% even though the mid west went up by 15%. If the stocks are tumbling that means people ain't buying shit. Which shit? All of it apparently.

I've said it before but both AMD and Nvidia haven't done shit for the mid range market in years. Most people who buy graphic cards don't spend more than $250 and that price range has been stuck around GTX 1060 and RX 580 levels of performance since 2013. Since the release of the GTX 780 Ti we've been stuck around this level of performance for 6 years going onto 7 now. That level of performance has gotten cheaper but not by a magnitude better. Then you have Tesla dumping Nvidia to go alone for AI. Their Tegra chips are largely a failure and probably dumped a bunch of them onto Nintendo to make the Switch.
 
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piscian18

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jul 26, 2005
Messages
11,021
Man I wanna buy a new card so bad, goddamn you Nvidia. Get your shit together. Get it all together. And put it in a backpack. All your shit. So it’s together and if you gotta take it somewhere, take it somewhere, you know, take it to the shit store and sell it… Or put it in a shit museum, I don’t care what you do, you just gotta get it together.
 

demondrops

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jul 7, 2016
Messages
422
maybe we get more sensible prices from now on let's hope so. it's not like amd have been a threat in recent history exactly.
 

hawkeye_wx

Weaksauce
Joined
Oct 20, 2008
Messages
70
Hang in there everyone...

Don't you mean,"Huang in there everyone?" ;)

Pull up a stock market chart for the last decade+ and it's pretty clear the market ran up too far, too fast over the last couple years. There's no way that parabolic rise was sustainable. Even after the latest plunge, in which the DOW is down ~15% from its peak, it's still up 6000 points from the bottom three years ago during the last rough stretch. The market simply ran up huge and got way ahead of itself. Everyone was trying to get in on the next tech stock ten-bagger. Nvidia ran up even more than that. When AMD began rising and the good news and rumors were hitting the news feeds every day, everyone suddenly jumped into that stock and irrationally ran it up to 32 in the blink of an eye. That was ridiculous.

The market will still continue to rise over the long term. It's just going to have to work to find a bottom over the next several months. It's unclear how big of a global economic slowdown there will be. Hopefully, there will be a soft landing while the excesses are wrung out.

One more thing about the market.... Just as euphoria can take over and stocks get run up irrationally, the same can be true going down. I think we're getting there now. It's all gloom and doom and the selling simply has momentum. One of these days there will be at least a temporary sharp bounce because straight down is no more sustainable than straight up.
 
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ManofGod

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Oct 4, 2007
Messages
12,616
I'm going by recent news like how auto sales are indeed down 6%, which might explain why Ford and GM decided to stop making cars. Housing sales are down 7.8% and is continuing to decline. Homes in the North East dropped by 33% even though the mid west went up by 15%. If the stocks are tumbling that means people ain't buying shit. Which shit? All of it apparently.

I've said it before but both AMD and Nvidia haven't done shit for the mid range market in years. Most people who buy graphic cards don't spend more than $250 and that price range has been stuck around GTX 1060 and RX 580 levels of performance since 2013. Since the release of the GTX 780 Ti we've been stuck around this level of performance for 6 years going onto 7 now. That level of performance has gotten cheaper but not by a magnitude better. Then you have Tesla dumping Nvidia to go alone for AI. Their Tegra chips are largely a failure and probably dumped a bunch of them onto Nintendo to make the Switch.

So, we had RX580 performance for $250 in 2013? DO tell! :D
 

Araxie

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 11, 2013
Messages
6,452
Nope, 5 years and the price of the 290x was over $500.

Gtx 970 was 300$ in 2014.. which its about the same level of performance of today 250$ gpus. (Add 10% extra performance for optimizations on newer gpus and so on) Not much have changed really. It is in the high end where things have really improved.
 
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STEM

Gawd
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
614
Gtx 970 was 300$ in 2014.. which its about the same level of performance of today 250$ gpus. (Add 10% extra performance for optimizations on newer gpus and so on) Not much have changed really. It is in the high end where things have really improved.

There isn't much money to be made in the low-end to mid range. A painful lesson that everyone in the tech business has learned time and time again.
 

iamjanco

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jul 8, 2016
Messages
460
See: Business WireEQUITY ALERT: Rosen Law Firm Announces Filing of Securities Class Action Lawsuit Against NVIDIA Corporation – NVDA

Also see: GlobeNewswireSHAREHOLDER ALERT - Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Notifies Investors of Class Action Against NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Lead Plaintiff Deadline: February 19, 2019

Excerpt:

According to the lawsuit, defendants throughout the Class Period made false and/or misleading statements. Specifically, defendants: (1) assured investors that NVIDIA followed the market closely and could adjust to rapid changes in the cryptocurrency markets; (2) touted that NVIDIA and its executives are “masters at managing our channel, and we understand the channel very well.”; and (3) assured investors that surging demand for graphics processing units (“GPUs”) among cryptocurrency miners would not have a negative impact on NVIDIA because of strong demand for GPUs by NVIDIA’s core customer base of computer gamers. When the true details entered the market, the lawsuit claims that investors suffered damages.

Regardless:

HAPPY HOLIDAYS ALL!
 
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Eymar

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 15, 2005
Messages
300
I'm not that big into investing, but it does seem Nvidia as a stock seems to be in a very bad place right now. Most of us know that it's R&D is well run and executes extremely well (as far as we know, maybe Nvidia is missing mark internally) ,but their marketing and business decisions (as well as events out of their control, but should be planned against like Bitcoin) is killing them with investors. Their biggest market, gaming dGPUs, will probably show less revenue for next few quarters without bitcoin and the most new and popular games not requiring gpu upgrades. Their other main growth market, Datacenters, should keep the stock price steady as Nvidia is still doing really well there, but if the Datacenter quarterly numbers fail to impress then I really can see their stock seeing some more pain. Right now feels like big investors are trying to push the price to 100 before buying in again, but if I knew how the big investors rolled I'd be a millionaire.
 

filip

2[H]4U
Joined
Aug 15, 2012
Messages
2,556
I was wondering why this thread was back up, it appears the misfortune is continuing and will likely hit AMD tomorrow on earnings.
 
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