NVIDIA CEO: GPU Shortage Will Continue Throughout 2022

Lakados

Supreme [H]ardness
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Feb 3, 2014
Messages
5,591
Agreed 1000%. We better join up w/Japan to defend Taiwan. Aside from the sheer economic, strategic mayhem it would cause, we need to make it clear to China that free people cannot be gobbled up.
The US has run so many simulations, joint and solo about trying to defend Taiwan the results are always the same. They loose horribly and incredibly quickly. China knows the US playbook incredibly well, they have been watching the US play it out over 20 years. The only option left is to limit the economic impact by shoring up key infrastructure manufacturing especially in chip manufacturing, research, and other key areas.
It’s not a fight the US will step into and China knows it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...war-game-changing-warfighting-strategy-2021-7
https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-t...th-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html
 

ManofGod

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The US has run so many simulations, joint and solo about trying to defend Taiwan the results are always the same. They loose horribly and incredibly quickly. China knows the US playbook incredibly well, they have been watching the US play it out over 20 years. The only option left is to limit the economic impact by shoring up key infrastructure manufacturing especially in chip manufacturing, research, and other key areas.
It’s not a fight the US will step into and China knows it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...war-game-changing-warfighting-strategy-2021-7
https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-t...th-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html

Let's make this clear, I did not mention this so that we could debate war and politics but how it will end up affecting our ability to purchase pretty much anything computer related going forward. Prices do not appear that they will drop and that sucks but.......... It will become much worse if Taiwan is literally invaded and taken over by China.
 
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Lakados

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Let's make this clear, I did not mention this so that we could debate war and politics but how it will end up affecting our ability to purchase pretty much anything computer related going forward. Prices do not appear that they will drop and that sucks but.......... It will become much worse if Twain is literally invaded and taken over by China.
Oh yeah way way way worse, TSMC, Intel, and the US know it. Which is why the $50B investment to semiconductor manufacturing is a good start but a drop in the bucket for what’s needed. The US and North American based companies have spent something like $30T since the mid 60’s investing in Asia’s infrastructure for various reasons and their plans haven’t planned out for the most part. Over the next decade that much is the bare minimum needed to be spent locally.

Chinese firms recently purchased Newport Wafer Fab and the UK government stupidly approved it. The first thing they did was cancel all existing non Chinese contracts. Leaving may European and US based tech companies swinging in the wind. Guaranteed similar with TSMC should the worst happen.

Local European and American (the continent not necessarily the country) investment is the solution to both problems. By increasing production it solves shortages and makes Taiwan less of a target by lowering their economic and strategic values. 2 birds with one expensive stone.

additional: Apparently the Newport factories were contracted for a half dozen or so military contracts which should have caused regulators to reject the bid flat out but somehow they missed all that and more so now the UK government is having to conduct a number of reviews. So now they are looking at the NVidia/Arm deal even closer because…. reasons??
 
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GoodBoy

2[H]4U
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They keep saying demand is so great, but has the PC gaming enthusiast market really grown at all in the last few years? I understand people WFH, but you don't need a 3080 Ti for that.

I understand why there is a shortage, for all the reasons we talk about every day. I just don't think demand from gamers is one of those reasons.
There was 600 million pc gamers in 2019, there was 660 million pc gamers in 2020.
.
.
.
Glad I got the card I was after... might be years before supply returns to a normal place.
 

Jinto

[H]ard|Gawd
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Agreed 1000%. We better join up w/Japan to defend Taiwan. Aside from the sheer economic, strategic mayhem it would cause, we need to make it clear to China that free people cannot be gobbled up.

This is such a fantasy. If push comes to shove China is willing to spill way more blood. It is unfinished business for them from their civil war and they just have way more skin in the game. It is not a coincidence that China is vastly increasing its nuclear stockpile. At some point it will be a game of chicken and whoever is willing to sacrifice more will come up on top.

China doesn’t invade Taiwan not because of some hypothetical defense from us but because time is in their favor and they would very much prefer not to have to shed any blood. If anything the current tech-nationalism is bad for Taiwan as eventually they will not have a near monopoly on high end semiconductors fabs.
 
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I thought they are on large node (like 22nm to 65), I imagine many entrants stay the same despite node size too:

https://www.ft.com/content/05206915-fd73-4a3a-92a5-6760ce965bd9
Moreover, one TSMC plant in the US cannot be used for everything: most of the chips used in cars can be produced with the larger 28-65nm nodes — a mature segment of the market in which TSMC is less dominant

That makes sense. But they want to take away production share from the limited TSMC pie. So something is still amiss with the shortages in the auto industry
 

Lakados

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What I don't get, why do car manufactures (and plenty of others) needs the small nodes? Can't they just get the bigger stuff from the likes of Global Foundries? Not every car has to have near autonomous driving.
It’s mostly for the CPU’s that process all the signals from the sensors. A modern vehicle has something like a thousand sensors and the cars main computer needs to process them all in real time. Any vehicle that has lane assist cruse control has a few dozen up front for that alone. Then there are the ones for detecting vehicles in blind spots, pedestrians, etc. That’s a lot of signals so yeah the bulk are on older larger processes but a small cluster of them are 12 or smaller.
 

sfsuphysics

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The US has run so many simulations, joint and solo about trying to defend Taiwan the results are always the same. They loose horribly and incredibly quickly. China knows the US playbook incredibly well, they have been watching the US play it out over 20 years.
I would say the main reason is proximity to China, if it was sea vs sea we could win hands down. But then you factor in land base strikes, air that doesn't need to be launched from carriers, and the fact they could land millions of troops relatively quickly, yeah it's game over. We simply can not project force against a major super power halfway across the world in a location that is literally in their backyard. Only saving grace is the world stage, which China has been working hard to erode, Olympics? Not a country, UN? Not a country. If they invaded it would be pushed as a civil war not an invasion.
 

Endgame

Gawd
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I would say the main reason is proximity to China, if it was sea vs sea we could win hands down. But then you factor in land base strikes, air that doesn't need to be launched from carriers, and the fact they could land millions of troops relatively quickly, yeah it's game over. We simply can not project force against a major super power halfway across the world in a location that is literally in their backyard. Only saving grace is the world stage, which China has been working hard to erode, Olympics? Not a country, UN? Not a country. If they invaded it would be pushed as a civil war not an invasion.
Taiwan could be spending a sizable amount of their GDP fortifying to make a conventional invasion very costly. They seem to be content to let us just be on the hook for their defense though instead.

hopefully TSMC has some kind of scorched earth setup so they just don’t get plundered.
 

Endgame

Gawd
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Messages
845
I know, right? It's so nice being able to just walk into a store now and grab an AMD card off the shelf if you want one.
Can’t tell if sarcasm, since there are like 50 AMD cards in stock at the local microcenter right now.
 

Ready4Dis

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What is the problem that miners are solving? How to get to ecological or economical disaster faster?
The problem they need solved is more quickly calculating values in order to turn a profit. Same with a business, the faster they can process things the larger their profits. Gamers aren't gaming for a profit (most aren't) so aren't going to have the incentive to spend near as much as some other entity that is making money. It has nothing to do with how you feel about the effects of mining or ai in a data center or someone buying cards to render blender scenes faster. They are doing so to turn a profit (for good or for bad is irrelevant).
 

GoldenTiger

Fully [H]
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Messages
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Can’t tell if sarcasm, since there are like 50 AMD cards in stock at the local microcenter right now.
Virtually no one has a microcenter near them given there are only 13 or so in the entire country. It's obvious sarcasm.
 

Armenius

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Jan 28, 2014
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Can’t tell if sarcasm, since there are like 50 AMD cards in stock at the local microcenter right now.
What a deal!

1629747223088.png


1629747140138.png
 

Endgame

Gawd
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Jan 10, 2007
Messages
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Step one is being in stock - I can’t walk in anywhere and buy any 30X0 or 20X0 card. NVidia MSRPs are imaginary too, exactly the same as the cards. The only Nvidia card that qualifies is the 1050ti at 279.

If I had to buy a card today, I would certainly take a 829 6700XT or 1199 6800XT over a 279 1050ti.
 

workshop35

Gawd
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Nov 24, 2013
Messages
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Huh? lol. I got in @ $99 a month after being on a waitlist to get in for about 25 days. Now its so god damn popular, theres a 2 month + waitlist AND efffin $2400+ (SIGNUP FEE LOL) plus like $150 a month. LMAO! Im grandfathered in at the $99 rate and keeping it.


Its done well for me, 40+ RTX cards @ msrp, numerous PS5's and Series X's for friends/fam. Not complaining at all lol.
Ugh, I just threw up in my mouth a little...
 

Gigantopithecus

[H]ard|Gawd
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Aug 6, 2009
Messages
1,581
Virtually no one has a microcenter near them given there are only 13 or so in the entire country. It's obvious sarcasm.
And shit, the Denver Microcenter does NOT have these cards in stock.

FFS, I'm to the point where if it did, I'd probably make the two-hour roundtrip to buy a $1,200 Asus TUF RX 6800 XT...
 

GoldenTiger

Fully [H]
Joined
Dec 2, 2004
Messages
24,070
Huh? lol. I got in @ $99 a month after being on a waitlist to get in for about 25 days. Now its so god damn popular, theres a 2 month + waitlist AND efffin $2400+ (SIGNUP FEE LOL) plus like $150 a month. LMAO! Im grandfathered in at the $99 rate and keeping it.


Its done well for me, 40+ RTX cards @ msrp, numerous PS5's and Series X's for friends/fam. Not complaining at all lol.
Very nice!!
 
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