NPD Predicts Switch Will Be 2018's Best-Selling Console

DooKey

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The PS4 has been the best selling console of this generation, but the folks over at the NPD group are predicting the Switch is going to take that crown this year. Yes, God of War and other Sony exclusives are moving consoles, however, Nintendo has a nice stable of games for the Switch that are turning the tide. That little Switch really is the engine that could if NPD is correct. I wonder how many hardcore Sony fans have grabbed a Switch to go along with their PS4?

Driven by the launches of Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu!, Pokemon: Let’s Go, Eevee! and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console of the fourth quarter in unit sales, while also elevating the platform to be the best-selling console of the year.
 

vegeta535

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Nope. Sales of the switch have slowed down considerably since Christmas. The hype is dead now.
 

Lenard

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This is spin. The best explanation is almost everyone who is going to get an XBONE or PS4 already has them. People who want a "Portable" system are tired of waiting for a serious challenger to the switch. There isn't really anything else.
 

scojer

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I've got a PS4 & Wii.

I'll get a switch when I feel like it, it's just had no exclusives to make me want to buy it. That's why I never got a Wii U.
 

Uvaman2

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Not sure where you are getting your data from, but sales seem to be doing fine. But please, if you have another datapoint that says differntly, please let me know.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/
Nintendo... Going broke since 1889....
I swear to god, if nintendo had been run by americans it would have been closed my December 1889.... One bad quarter, and that's it fire everyone, close it next quarter.
I hope to God nintendo never gets American culture when it comes to run it.
 

MNKyDeth

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I have my PS4... Bought two switches. One for me one for the stepson.

I have a vita as well. Love the Vita but the switch is better. Sometimes its just nice having games on a portable even if you already own them on a better console. Waiting someplace like getting the tires changed or oil changed on your car is where the Switch excels for me. The switch is great for the stepson cause he can play wherever and he's not hogging my PS4 time.

However, I usually only play them when not gaming on my puter, or SuperGrafx + Super CD-Rom2 console.
 

RogueTrip

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Just bought one for myself. I cannot find any games i really want to play on it. Maybe ill pickup mario odyssey to play.

If the steam link app comes to the switch or rainway works then the switch is totally worth it. Otherwise I hope metroid prime trilogy gets ported.

Looks like they already released a new switch the exploits won't run with.
 

Balkroth

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Well Smash and Pokemon are comiing out later this year, so yea, those games will sell a bajillion switches.
 

jnemesh

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Agreed, this is spin. The Switch is much newer hardware with a far lower install base. OF COURSE it will sell better this year! 2017 was probably the PS4s peak year...they are still selling extremely well, but still down slightly year over year.

LIFETIME sales of the PS4 are already over 80 million at this point, though, and regardless of how well the Switch does in a year, it will be MANY more before the Switch can catch up to THAT number.
 

/dev/null

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I have been travelling a lot for work this year. Was interested in a portable gaming console to use occasionally. PS Vita simply didn't interest me. It was 3DS/2DS (or variants) or switch.

I ended up with a New 2DS XL on closeout from target ($118 + tax) and have picked up ~ 20 games or so. Probably the worst graphics of any games I've played recently (I have a i5-8400 & 1070 SLI setup for desktop gaming), but quite frankly, it doesn't matter. The games are just FUN.
 

Armenius

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Before today, who has ever heard of NPD?
I have, but ignored them because they didn't track digital sales, which made them useless. I think they do now, but I simply don't care anymore.
 

nutzo

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Once piracy takes hold on a console, the popularity of it soars.
This and Pokémon.

Once again, a Nintendo product will be saved from declining sales by Pokémon.
My kid who has played every Pokémon game on the DS/3DS now wants a Switch because of the new Pokémon games coming out for it.
If the same games where released on the 3DS, they wouldn't care about getting a Switch.

Considering the Switch has been hacked and it will soon be easy for people to play their "backups" :rolleyes:, I expect a huge increase in demand for the hardware.
 

Verge

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The PS4 has been the best selling console of this generation, but the folks over at the NPD group are predicting the Switch is going to take that crown this year. Yes, God of War and other Sony exclusives are moving consoles, however, Nintendo has a nice stable of games for the Switch that are turning the tide. That little Switch really is the engine that could if NPD is correct. I wonder how many hardcore Sony fans have grabbed a Switch to go along with their PS4?

Driven by the launches of Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu!, Pokemon: Let’s Go, Eevee! and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console of the fourth quarter in unit sales, while also elevating the platform to be the best-selling console of the year.
Driven by market saturation, plain and simple.


Switch games are sparse to say the least!
 

Verge

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Where do we start here.

First off your list has games that aren't even released, and don't even have a release date. You don't even have to page down to see a flood of them, including the aptly named '0000.' So that didn't work out very well.

Secondly, assuming there were ACTUALLY 1210 games for the switch, 1200 of them everyone has already played on other consoles. Almost every title that wasn't developed by nintendo is an old port of something else.





try again
 

vegeta535

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This and Pokémon.

Once again, a Nintendo product will be saved from declining sales by Pokémon.
My kid who has played every Pokémon game on the DS/3DS now wants a Switch because of the new Pokémon games coming out for it.
If the same games where released on the 3DS, they wouldn't care about getting a Switch.

Considering the Switch has been hacked and it will soon be easy for people to play their "backups" :rolleyes:, I expect a huge increase in demand for the hardware.
From what I understand new switch system out their had the rcm fixed and current exploits not working on them. You have to track down old hardware which would not increase sales.
 

Verge

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Where do we start here.

First off your list has games that aren't even released, and don't even have a release date. You don't even have to page down to see a flood of them, including the aptly named '0000.' So that didn't work out very well.

Secondly, assuming there were ACTUALLY 1210 games for the switch, 1200 of them everyone has already played on other consoles. Almost every title that wasn't developed by nintendo is an old port of something else.





try again


Oh it gets better, after copying that list in excel, and sorting by games that have been released in north america... spot checking the first 6... YES SIX games are not found on the nintendo store.

Who put that shit together? Are these browser games or somethin... that doesn't really count.
 

Domingo

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It would be interesting to see a % of Switch games that were originally released more than 18 months ago. It has to be more than 50%.
It is what it is, though. If people like it and want to buy those games, great.
I hate my Switch, but I'm stuck with it because of Mario Kart, Smash, etc. Just like with every other Nintendo system I'm stuck saying "this game is great...but..."
 

Armenius

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Verge

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It would be interesting to see a % of Switch games that were originally released more than 18 months ago. It has to be more than 50%.
It is what it is, though. If people like it and want to buy those games, great.
I hate my Switch, but I'm stuck with it because of Mario Kart, Smash, etc. Just like with every other Nintendo system I'm stuck saying "this game is great...but..."
I like mine too, but I haven't turned it on since April.

No doubt it might be the best selling console though, everyone already has a ps4.
 

Uvaman2

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Where do we start here.

First off your list has games that aren't even released, and don't even have a release date. You don't even have to page down to see a flood of them, including the aptly named '0000.' So that didn't work out very well.

Secondly, assuming there were ACTUALLY 1210 games for the switch, 1200 of them everyone has already played on other consoles. Almost every title that wasn't developed by nintendo is an old port of something else.





try again
Yes i will try again.. there is already more games for the switch than you will ever be able to play. If they came out elsewhere before is irrelevant .
But hey, argument used to be there is no games for x console (this happned more in the past).. and it would be true, the list might be in the low 10s... I guess now that its in the hundreds at or near 1000.. it oh well they came out elsewhere.. oh well they all crap, and oh well on and on...
 

Uvaman2

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1,005 in NA are actually released. But how many of those are just re-releases of PC, Wii, WiiU, or DS games? How many of them can you actually buy right now?

There are 5 games I want to play on the Switch and I already own all of them. 1 new one comes out tomorrow, and there or 2-3 more coming out in the future.
I would say 5 games that you actually want is pretty good. Doesn't mean there is not ever so many.
The support for the switch is there, and it shows and will get better. Now on technical limitations alone there will always be games that will not be there.. its the nature of the beast, and the argument applies to all machines.. even pcs. I remember the dire predictions of zero support for the switch.
 

Verge

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Yes i will try again.. there is already more games for the switch than you will ever be able to play. If they came out elsewhere before is irrelevant .
But hey, argument used to be there is no games for x console (this happned more in the past).. and it would be true, the list might be in the low 10s... I guess now that its in the hundreds at or near 1000.. it oh well they came out elsewhere.. oh well they all crap, and oh well on and on...
Huh?



That list is complete shit, there isn't close to 1000. Do you even own a switch? It doesn't sound like it.
 

velusip

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I suppose if they include all the replacement consoles in their figures.
 

Criticalhitkoala

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I have both a ps4 pro and a switch and love them both. For the amount of hours quality games like monster hunter world, horizon zero dawn, botw, and hollow knight had given the total cost of ownership is well less than the returns
 

Uvaman2

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Huh?



That list is complete shit, there isn't close to 1000. Do you even own a switch? It doesn't sound like it.
Of course i do.. there is a ton of stuff in the store. Its nothing like people say it was going to be, nor is the switch lacking for support in anyway .. to say otherwise its just bullshit.
Honestly as far as the list , just did a quick search.. but to me nothing changes the fact that yhe switch is loaded with games, and more coming.. its just a fact.
 
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nutzo

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Of course i do.. there is a ton of stuff in the store. Its nothing like people say it was going to be, nor is the switch lacking for support in anyway ..
Remove every game on that list that is already available on the 3DS.
Then remove any game that is just another remake of a 3DS game.

Not much left.

Too much money for a console just to play a couple games, especially since the games are now $60
 

MavericK

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I'll pick mine back up once Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate comes out in August.

I need to go back and play the Zelda DLC but I just haven't really been that motivated to.

After I finished the "main quest" of Mario Odyssey (another game with way more content that I haven't played yet), I haven't really touched the Switch since.
 

Derangel

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Remove every game on that list that is already available on the 3DS.
Then remove any game that is just another remake of a 3DS game.

Not much left.

Too much money for a console just to play a couple games, especially since the games are now $60
Really depends on what games you are in to. I have more than enough games on my Switch to make the purchase worthwhile, with exclusives like Octopath, Smash, and Pokemon Let's Go coming up this year I'm not running out of things to play on it anytime soon.
 

J3RK

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Remove every game on that list that is already available on the 3DS.
Then remove any game that is just another remake of a 3DS game.

Not much left.

Too much money for a console just to play a couple games, especially since the games are now $60
Ok, let's apply this to ANY other device then.

Remove all games on the PS4 that are on either XBOne or PC.
Remove all games on the XBOne that are on the PS4 of PC.
Remove all games from either that were on any previous generation console.
Remove all games that were also on a portable like the Vita.

None of those other systems have Nintendo first party. Whether you like Nintendo's first party games is of course subjective, but the fact remains they're nowhere else.

There are a lot of games on the Switch that aren't on the 3DS also.
You can't plug a 3DS into a TV if you're not making use of the portability.

There are independent games all over the Switch as well. Very good ones. Sure, most are also on Steam, but then so is just about any non-exclusive game.

Personally I'd pick up a lot of them, just so I can play anywhere. I'm one of those people that sit at computers FAR too much every day, and being able to play Hyper Light Drifter or Dead Cells (or a bunch of others) away from a computer is valuable.

Every argument against the Switch that I'm seeing, could be made about just about any other platform that plays games. You either like the games or you don't, but the Switch is a cool and mostly unique platform. It's also years newer than the others. You can "reason" all you want that many of the games aren't out yet, but being a relatively new system, that's obviously going to change.

I really don't understand how anyone could call the Switch a bad platform, or try to say it isn't selling well. It's selling amazingly well. Are the numbers skewed? Are any numbers ever NOT skewed? Of course they're skewed, in the timing of the various consoles cycles, and likely other ways as well. No matter how you gauge it though, it's selling well, has excellent support, and should continue in that manner for some time. Why hate on it?

One last item. They've been out for a bit granted, but show me another portable the size of the switch that plays Doom 2016, Wolfenstein, or Skyrim.
 
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Derangel

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One last item. They've been out for a bit granted, but show me another portable the size of the switch that plays Doom 2016, Wolfenstein, or Skyrim.
The rest of your post is a solid argument, but I think this one falters a bit. Going just by form factor the GPD Win 2 can play all of those, at better than Switch settings. Size isn't the only thing that makes the Switch impressive, it is the size and the price point.
 

J3RK

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The rest of your post is a solid argument, but I think this one falters a bit. Going just by form factor the GPD Win 2 can play all of those, at better than Switch settings. Size isn't the only thing that makes the Switch impressive, it is the size and the price point.
I forgot about that thing. Touche! Not in the same class, but it also reminds me of the Open Pandora handhelds. Those were pretty cool too.

So, does that Intel 615 really play something like Doom better than the Max-Tegra? I'm honestly curious. I don't think I've read, tried, or heard any results from attempting that. (maybe I'll have to try it myself)
 
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