No new Switch this year as Nintendo plans to ramp up production post pandemic induced shortage

[staknhalo]

Nintendo didn't start making "underpowered" consoles for the generation they release in until the Wii. So three console generations over 16 years of their 39.5 year console history.

My perspective is a bit different, they've been intentionally making underpowered (as both a cost to them/consumer and portability issue) since the get go:

The SNES, N64, Gamecube are the oddballs, the experiments, not the norm/baseline

 

[Armenius]

So, no.

1.) If Nintendo competes on graphics, then they have to compete on graphics.
2.) If they compete on graphics, then that means they will have a console of roughly equivalent cost.
3.) Price is still a major differentiating factor for consumers buying Nintendo based consoles. People who are "casual gamers" that would never buy an XBox or PS console buy Nintendo products (EG: Wii. Even retirement facilities utilized Wii Fit, parents that don't game for their kids, family consoles, etc etc).

Slapping a Nintendo sticker on something doesn't make it a sales hit. You should reexamine the market if you think this. Basically every year that Nintendo was competing graphically with Sony/Microsoft, they pushed lower console sales and were often in third position. As you note, Gamecube was the last console to compete graphically and it came in third place. That gen, PS2 sold the most consoles ever (150 million), and even XBOX (original, not even 360) came it at 24 million, 3 million above the Gamecube. In the N64 generation, which came before it, they sold 1/3rd as many consoles, 33 million vs Sony, which sold 102 million.

It wasn't until Nintendo did something you call "quirky" with the Wii that trend reversed.

And to show that even cost isn't enough, that trend quickly reversed again with the terribly selling Wii U.

Then they figured out another winning formula with the Switch.

Nintendo's niche is in fact low cost hardware that is interesting (whereas the Wii U was apparently confusing for a lot of people). Just creating a console that competes graphically that competes with Sony, Microsoft, pretty much guarantees that they will have the lowest sales. That thing you keep being sarcastic about is in fact Nintendo's strong suit. Which is essentially creating low cost consoles that are novel and fun. It's in fact this strategy that has allowed Nintendo to have way more sales than their competitors and also not have to compete on graphics. If you don't want that, that's fine. But it's apparent that the difference between 25million console sales and 100 million console sales for Nintendo is about $200. If Nintendo could create a console that they can make profit off of every sale (as opposed to at a loss), have it compete graphically, and only cost $300 they would do it. But unless AMD (or nVidia) and TSMC drop their costs like a rock, that ain't happening anytime soon.

Nintendo competed on graphics with the Gamecube at $100 less than the PlayStation 2 and Xbox, and that still didn't save the console from being a low seller. You're absolutely right that Nintendo doesn't want to compete like that anymore. I think Nintendo found a niche that they're comfortable in. The Wii was 20x less powerful than the Xbox 360 and yet it still outsold it by a mile.

 

[Axman]

Does the strange rumors that Nvidia forced them away from the old Tegra APU that they stopped producing in 2021 and Nintendo was running on reserve will die off ?

Pretty sure those weren't rumors, Nvidia themselves said they stopped making them.

 

[gvx64]

Nintendo needs to remember that it wasn't that long ago that the company was on the brink of having to throw in the towel on their existing business model (dedicated handhelds and home consoles) during the Wii U era. During that time, Iwata took a 50% paycut to appease enraged investors over poor Wii U sales, Nintendo sold off the Mariners and Reggie revealed after the fact in interviews that Nintendo was seriously contemplating that the Switch would not be a success and that Nintendo would have to basically give up on the business model they had relied on for decades. Those times were real and largely existed because Nintendo became extremely complacent during the Wii era and believed that they could do no wrong. As a result they threw together a sloppy concept for a successor with no idea how to take advantage of the Gamepad gimmick. They thought that developers would "figure it out" which never happened and 3rd parties literally abandoned the console on mass shortly after launch. Nintendo also had no idea how to develop games in HD prior to the Wii U and did nothing to prepare for that transition during the Wii era and this basically turned the Wii U's first party release schedule into a desert as development took way longer than they anticipated.

What saved Nintendo's butt was in 2015-2017 the company got really serious and devoted everything it had to making the Switch a success. Nintendo released an amazing lineup of games during the latter Wii U era (Splatoon, Mario Maker, BotW) and early Switch era (BotW, Mario Odyssey) and the Switch hardware was surprisingly sleek and advanced (in 2017) for a Nintendo system. The problem I see is that, once the Switch proved to be a success, Nintendo has largely returned to the state of complacency that we saw during the Wii and early Wii U era. Apart from the odd big hit like Animal Crossing and Metroid Dread, I have seen a lot of lazy re-releases, HD remasters and annualization style games and not a lot of signs of that big effort that we saw from them in 2015-2017. BotW2 has taken longer to develop than BotW despite using largely the same overworld. Metroid Prime 4 was given to Retro Studios 4 years ago now and as far as I know we haven't even seen a trailer for it yet. I suspect that this behavoir is also the main reason for the delays we are seeing in the new Switch model. Nintendo is being reactive again instead of proactive: I'll bet that they are thinking that the Switch is selling well so why even bother planning for the next gen? I don't buy that it is entirely part shortages that is holding back the new Switch: both Sony and MS managed to release new, cutting edge consoles during said shortage and it looks like they are doing reasonably well on the supply front. Nintendo needs to change this reactive and lazy behaviour: they are a talented company that has created (and still does create) some of the greatest gaming masterpieces of our age but that is not a substitute for running a business badly and it is still absolutely possible for Nintendo to go the way that Sega did all those years earlier if they don't correct it.

LOL, yes. "I only care about games being fun" is this strange rallying cry of Nintendo diehards whenever anyone brings up their last-gen graphics. You'd think that graphics and fun can't ever coexist. It also seems to ignore that everyone's favorite Nintendo system, the NES, was overpowered AF compared to the Atari, Coleco, Intellevision, etc.

That's not necessarily the case, though. The SNES, N64, and even the Gamecube were on par with the other systems if not flat out better at many/most things. It's only been the last 3 systems where they decided to be quirky for the sake of being quirky.

There is a strange obsession with Nintendo being capable of doing no wrong...because of the 1980's, and Howard and Nester, and the Nintendo 64 Christmas kid, and stuff and things. If you mention that the graphics are last gen, "I only care about fun." Online play is nearly unplayable. "I don't care about online play." Why are they only releasing one franchise game per system now? "That's all I need." Their system doesn't support analog triggers? "I don't need those." This multi-platform game totally sucks compared to the other ones. "I don't care about those games." The Switch is too big as a portable and underpowered as a console. "I like carrying a Halliburton-sized Switch case and I only have a 720p TV." They're charging you to re-buy a game from the 1990s for the 4th time, and it's still $25? "I would pay $500 to keep playing Super Mario 3 if they'd let me." You can't stream on this thing? "I stream on my phone." The list keeps going and going. There's never a concession of "Yeah, I wish they didn't do that." You won't see that from anybody who thinks Sony or Microsoft are the bees knees. They'll burn 'em at the stake for even the slightest misstep. Yet the Nintendo legions would defend every move they make whether they agree with it or not. They'll just change their stance and buy one of each color.

I know what you're saying. The funny thing is that these fans were nowhere to be seen during the Wii U era. I largely became a Nintendo fan again during the Wii U era because I wanted to support Nintendo when they were in a dire position to avoid having another Sega in our history books. That said, it was tough, I was one of maybe a couple of people I knew that owned a Wii U and most people thought that I was weird for buying one as an adult (most people I knew that did buy one had small kids and even the kids were generally more interested in their tablet than holding the clunky gamepad). Also, at that time, everybody basically predicted that the Switch/NX would fail as badly as the Wii U did and that Nintendo would have to go third party. If you went on these message boards in 2014 (the same ones today that lay on the hate for saying anything that is critical of Nintendo) and said that the Wii U successor would sell through 120 million (or even 50 million) they would have flamed you alive with exactly the same vigor. i have lots of not-so-nice things to say about these types of people (and what is generally their corresponding political views) but I will abstain...

 

[Lakados]

Does the strange rumors that Nvidia forced them away from the old Tegra APU that they stopped producing in 2021 and Nintendo was running on reserve will die off ?

Nvidia has stopped making them, that isn't a rumor. They did provide Nintendo with enough stock of the chip though that they could produce all the consoles that they projected to when they set out with the Switch. Nintendo is sitting on a warehouse of silicon just waiting to be used.
It should be noted that when Nintendo launched the Switch the Tegra X1 platform was already 2+ years old.

 

[chameleoneel]

fits well in both the Japanese, Asian markets while also finding a niche in the west.

In November, it was reported that Switch had sold 114 million units, all total. The closest U.S. specific numbers I could find, were of August 2022: Switch had sold ~40 million units, in the USA.

In 2022 for the U.S: Switch sold more units than Playstation and Xbox.

That's not a niche

 

[jbltecnicspro]

Wild guess, they're going to come out with something that's quirky (borderline gimmicky) and underpowered.
No matter what it turns out to be, there will be people that defend it endlessly and repeatedly say "I don't care about graphics, I only care about fun." Those things being mutually exclusive, of course.
Those same people will buy 2-3 more for their kids (along with Mario/Luigi clothing), who will abandon that old people stuff and go back to playing Roblox and Fortnite.
We'll probably get a single Zelda game, Metroid game, Mario Kart game, Smash game, and Mario game...although at least two of those will be just be ports from the Switch. New F-Zero? Pfffft. No. Ports of games on the other systems that aren't a joke? Pfffft. No. Versions of the console in multiple colors? HELL YES!

The hell you say. They've never done this before - why start now?

 

[chameleoneel]

I don't buy that it is entirely part shortages that is holding back the new Switch: both Sony and MS managed to release new, cutting edge consoles during said shortage and it looks like they are doing reasonably well on the supply front.

Ehh, When the pandemic hit, Sony and MS were near final revision on PS5 and Series X. And it took a few months for shortages and scalping to really hit consumers hard. Even if they saw it coming----they had already invested millions into R&D, PR, etc. Production at TSMC is precious. AMD needed all the production capacity they had reserved, to be able to supply two consoles, new gen CPUs, and new gen graphics cards.

Those consoles had to release and pray for the best. But, I'm not so sure they saw it coming. Sony took just as long as every other E-seller, to attempt to change how they sell PlayStations; in response to shortages and scalping.

Nintendo was middle generation with the Switch. By the time a Switch Pro truly made sense (not a next generation console. A refreshed Switch, like a PS4 pro)-----supply shortages were well into effect. The Switch Lite is proof that variations on the hardware are good for sales. And indeed, people wanted the OLED and it was tough to get, for like 6+ months. Even regular Switches were tough to get. Especially if you wanted a specific color of the Switch-Lite. Especially during holiday season.
Whether or not the OLED was actually meant to house "Pro" hardware: Nintendo had experienced plenty of shortage on their existing hardware. I do not doubt they changed roadmaps for future hardware. Whether that was a Switch Pro, true next gen hardware, or both.

 

[LukeTbk]

Pretty sure those weren't rumors, Nvidia themselves said they stopped making them.

Ah could be but everytime I took a look I never find that statement from them.

Nvidia has stopped making them, that isn't a rumor. They did provide Nintendo with enough stock of the chip though that they could produce all the consoles that they projected to when they set out with the Switch. Nintendo is sitting on a warehouse of silicon just waiting to be used.
It should be noted that when Nintendo launched the Switch the Tegra X1 platform was already 2+ years old.

Source ? You think they provided them in 2021 for all the holiday 2021 season, all the 2022 year and all of 2023-2024 ? Like 30-40 millions worth of APU in warehouses ?

In NVIDIA 2023 Q! financials report:
https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2023/Q123/Q1FY23-CFO-Commentary.pdf
Gaming revenue was up 31% from a year ago and up 6% sequentially. The year-on-year increase reflects higher sales of GeForce GPUs based on our NVIDIA Ampere architecture. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of GeForce GPUs for laptops and SOCs for game consoles.
Data Center, partially offset by higher sales of SOCs for game consoles. Non-GAAP gross margin was up 90 basis points from a year ago and up 10 basis points sequentially.

 

[Axman]

Ah could be but everytime I took a look I never find that statement from them.

I remember seeing a statement from some kind of shareholder thing that got flipped by Red Gaming or someone, memory's fuzzy. Could be that they didn't actually sell all of them to Nintendo until Nintendo had all the other parts to make the consoles. New old stock situation.

 

[Lakados]

Ah could be but everytime I took a look I never find that statement from them.


Source ? You think they provided them in 2021 for all the holiday 2021 season, all the 2022 year and all of 2023-2024 ? Like 30-40 millions worth of APU in warehouses ?

In NVIDIA 2023 Q! financials report:
https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2023/Q123/Q1FY23-CFO-Commentary.pdf
Gaming revenue was up 31% from a year ago and up 6% sequentially. The year-on-year increase reflects higher sales of GeForce GPUs based on our NVIDIA Ampere architecture. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of GeForce GPUs for laptops and SOCs for game consoles.
Data Center, partially offset by higher sales of SOCs for game consoles. Non-GAAP gross margin was up 90 basis points from a year ago and up 10 basis points sequentially.

I’m digging, I remember Nvidia making a statement like “we will ensure Nintendo has enough chips to meet their goals” but I can’t find it any more when I search I am only flooded with “Switch Pro Confirmed” articles from 2021 to yesterday.
There is also the possibility that they only discontinued the Tegra X1 and not the X1+ (which is the designation for the 16nm variant) which would make their original statement true and also keep Nintendo swimming in silicon for updated devices.

 

[emphy]

Nvidia has stopped making them, that isn't a rumor. They did provide Nintendo with enough stock of the chip though that they could produce all the consoles that they projected to when they set out with the Switch. Nintendo is sitting on a warehouse of silicon just waiting to be used.
It should be noted that when Nintendo launched the Switch the Tegra X1 platform was already 2+ years old.

Everyone seems to forget: the switch no longer uses the old tegra chip, but a 2019 update with hugely improved power consumption (adds roughly 2 hours battery life compared to the old model). Did nvidia also stop making those chips?

All I am seeing are reports that nvidia was going to stop production, not of them having actually stopped it.

 

[Lakados]

Everyone seems to forget: the switch no longer uses the old tegra chip, but a 2019 update with hugely improved power consumption (adds roughly 2 hours battery life compared to the old model). Did nvidia also stop making those chips?

Apart from that: all I am seeing are reports that nvidia was going to stop production, not of them having actually stopped it.

I am thinking that is the case and the original 20nm Tegra X1 is discontinued but the 16nm X1+ variant is still in limited production.

 

[DukenukemX]

This means PC users who run Switch games through an emulator will continue to enjoy Switch games on PC.