Microsoft Needs To Find Its Own ‘Horizon Zero Dawn’ For Xbox Series X

Marees

[H]ard|Gawd
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Microsoft has been playing it too safe with its originals. Too reliant on old franchises, some of which it may be time to sunset, too reliant on making those games as close to the originals as possible, and not letting them evolve in meaningful ways. And now, looking ahead, their future plans for new games may rely on again, reprising old IPs

https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www....rizon-zero-dawn-for-xbox-series-x/amp/?espv=1
 
And about half a dozen other platform sellers. I think the XBOX experiment died with the XBONE, they just can't admit it yet.

My money is on XSX putting them back in the lead this generation.

Xbox One was a failure, no denying that, but it's easy to pinpoint why it failed. Before they launched, they got just about everything they could wrong. They touted media features when people wanted games. They touted DRM and digital future when poeple wanted discs (even though the future MS predicted came to pass anyway, there is a difference between it being organic and being forced). They touted a Kinect nobody wanted, and because of it came out with a console that was more expensive and less powerful than the competition. They did a ton of damage at launch and it followed them throughout the generation. The thing is... they made huge strides in the late game. Their hardware refresh dominated anything else on the market and was legitimately very impressive for the visuals it could produce (for a console). They started listening and backed down on basically all of their anti-consumer practices, and I think they have earned back a good deal of the favor they lost early on in the generation.

All of that seems to have been taken into consideration on the XSX. It's (on paper) the more powerful console. They are making some very impressive claims regarding backwards compatibility. They are making a gaming machine this time, not a jack of all trades entertainment hub. They have always had the better online service, and I think their Game Pass represents a tremendous value, something Sony really doesn't have an answer to, and something I see as a very valuable part of Microsoft's strategy to win people over.

The big thing Sony has that Microsoft doesn't is better exclusives. And while that no doubt sells consoles, I don't think it determines the winner. Look at the sort of games that continue to sell well, year after year. It's the Call of Dutys, and the sports games, and Ubi's recycled dribble. You can get those experiences from either camp.

I've owned every console since the original Playstation. I don't play favorites, I'm not a fanboy to either camp. I'm sure ill inevitably own both of these two, but XSX is definitely the more interesting one to me. If they really have 4K upscaling and HDR working in all their BC titles, that's a huge draw. Gamepass is also a huge draw (particularly if it has a well supported library at launch)... $10 a month for a huge library of games is a big deal (and $15 to toss in XBL ain't bad either). In a world where netflix is the new normal, people aren't opposed to subscriptions, and $10 a month is well within the reach of juts about anyone. The value is overwhelming. I expect we will see MS double down on peoples willingness to lock into subscriptions, I can all but guarantee you'll see them offering at launch a bundle where you get a console, XBL, and gamepass, probably in the realm of $30-$40 a month on a 24 month contract. People will eat that up. Getting a new next gen console with online service and a wealth of games and only putting down $30-$40 is a big deal if the competition is asking for $500 + $60 to get online and another $60 per game you want to play.

Time will tell who's right, but I really think Xbox is far from dead.
 
Microsoft's biggest issue is that they lost some of their customers from the XB1 that moved to the Sony ecosystem. Now they have to work harder to get those customers back. I can tell you from my perspective that is going to be a difficult prospect. I was an owner of the old big 3 consoles XB, PS2, N64 (IIRC) -> XB360, PS3, and Wii. After that generation I moved to only the PS4. That was all from the strength of the exclusives on PS4. The third party fodder was on two consoles so the one who had the most interesting exclusives were what moved me to the Sony camp. And now with digital games in the mix it also further cements the user to the platform assuming even some small level of BC on the new machines. MS' BC is a minor thing if your current library is on the Sony platform.

Yeah game pass could be a big deal with games moving to $70, but I would guess not many of the publishers will do GP on the new games simply because they will lose money (well at least until the game price drops to a certain level). So sure you'll eventually get AAA game X there but not at release unless MS pays them a lot to offset the lost sales. And if people end up really preferring GP, Sony will just copy it so again it comes back down to exclusives. I like to say exclusives suck, but it really does work for not only bringing in, but also retaining your customer base. I mean for me Spider-Man and HZD2 are big draws, but once Demon Souls remake was shown I don't think XSX even registered in my mind as an option any longer.

So is XB dead? No, but it's got a tough climb to get people to their platform. From my perspective they have nothing to draw me back to their console. Even if the XBX has a hardware advantage unless it's a night and day one (like PS3 vs PS4 difference) I don't see it as being relevant to anyone outside forums like these. The general population buyers are going to go "My kids want to play Game A, B and C. So Game B and C are on both platforms but A is only on PS5? So I am buying them a PS5."
 
Microsoft's biggest issue is that they lost some of their customers from the XB1 that moved to the Sony ecosystem. Now they have to work harder to get those customers back. I can tell you from my perspective that is going to be a difficult prospect. I was an owner of the old big 3 consoles XB, PS2, N64 (IIRC) -> XB360, PS3, and Wii. After that generation I moved to only the PS4. That was all from the strength of the exclusives on PS4. The third party fodder was on two consoles so the one who had the most interesting exclusives were what moved me to the Sony camp. And now with digital games in the mix it also further cements the user to the platform assuming even some small level of BC on the new machines. MS' BC is a minor thing if your current library is on the Sony platform.

Yeah game pass could be a big deal with games moving to $70, but I would guess not many of the publishers will do GP on the new games simply because they will lose money (well at least until the game price drops to a certain level). So sure you'll eventually get AAA game X there but not at release unless MS pays them a lot to offset the lost sales. And if people end up really preferring GP, Sony will just copy it so again it comes back down to exclusives. I like to say exclusives suck, but it really does work for not only bringing in, but also retaining your customer base. I mean for me Spider-Man and HZD2 are big draws, but once Demon Souls remake was shown I don't think XSX even registered in my mind as an option any longer.

So is XB dead? No, but it's got a tough climb to get people to their platform. From my perspective they have nothing to draw me back to their console. Even if the XBX has a hardware advantage unless it's a night and day one (like PS3 vs PS4 difference) I don't see it as being relevant to anyone outside forums like these. The general population buyers are going to go "My kids want to play Game A, B and C. So Game B and C are on both platforms but A is only on PS5? So I am buying them a PS5."

All valid points. I'd agree that the more invested someone is in their digital library, the more incentive they have to stay within console family... assuming those games all are playable. Xbox has been a lot more direct in this regard, claiming that if it ran on Xbox One, it runs on Series X, stretching back through three generations of consoles. Sony has been a lot more coy about BC, titles don't just work, they need to be made to work, which if nothing else creates confusion. It also means, best I can tell, that the only BC you're going to see is PS4 > PS5. If someone has an established PS4 library, but comes to find not all their games will transfer, then I think that opens up a window where-in someone would just keep their PS4, at which point there less locked into continuing on Sony's ecosystem. I see it more likely that Xbox players, going in knowing everything will not only work, but work better, will keep them rooted within XBox software. So yeah, while I think many people will remain with their brand, I think it's possible that you'll have significantly more PS4 > XSX switches than you will XB1 > PS5.

Game pass doesn't get many third party AAA new releases, but they get some of their back catalog, and obviously you get all of Microsoft's games. Still, right now, there are 237 titles on Game Pass for XBox, that's a massive amount of games at your fingertips for $10 a month. Especially for family consoles. It's a way to have a massive game library that will appeal to everyone's interests and gives parents a very inexpensive way to keep their kids entertained. Games as a service is the future, we've seen it coming for years, and Microsoft is at the forefront of that. They are playing the long game. When you look at the potential total cost of ownership of both platforms, and factor in gamepass, you can get an exceptionally better value on Xbox, particularly if you're more interested in a wide variety of experiences than you are in always having the latest AAA titles. There's a reason everyone is watching their movies on netflix instead of buying them a la carte, even though Netflix rarely has new releases outside of their own products. Value is a huge factor in peoples purchasing decision, and your average consumer is fine waiting if it saves them money. I'm confident Microsoft is going to go all-in on game pass. You'll see it extensively marketed alongside XSX, with a heavy focus on Xbox being the better value for maximizing the amount of entertainment your dollar buys you.

I understand full well that exclusives are important, and I absolutely think Sony's are better, but to be honest I also don't think they had many impressive things to show off at their presentation. I don't recall if they actually said what their launch line up will look like... but the stand outs to me were Demon's Souls and Spider-Man. Those are big, for sure, but not like killer app stuff. We can assume that other than a TLOU2 port, we wont see much from ND for a while. Where's Sony's other heavy hitters? Where's God of War, or Uncharted, or a follow up to Horizon? Bloodborne 2 (or another new, exclusive From Software title)? Kojima's next effort? Obviously these things can be expected eventually, but as far as what they get to tout at launch, I saw nothing that I can't live without. Notably absent is any sort of major competitive title. Microsoft, at the very least we know Halo Infinite is coming. Their big AAA system seller will be there, at launch, selling systems. Halo comes with a very big online community and (not trying to sound like a broken record here, but...) for the price of $15/mo you can be online, playing Halo with your buddies (or realistically, for free at launch, because I think it's very safe to guess everyone XSX will be coming with a free trial to game pass). For fans of playing online, that will bring plenty of players. Beyond that, we don't really know what they have coming, but we'll find out next week.
 
Honestly the ball is in Sony's court and what they do will decide who will win this generation. The graphics will be similar and to the common person won't tell the difference. Hell most won't without looking at DF break down videos. Sony needs to back off their censor policies and not cave into the PC and SJW asshole which they seem to be doing. I will be getting a PS5 since I will have no use for a Xbox with a gaming PC.
 
If Microsoft ends up selling Xbox games, Xbox Live subscriptions, (and accessories) on the PC...does that count? It's all anecdotal of course, but I have have several friends and I've read plenty of posts here from people planning to do just that. Myself included. That's clearly part of their strategy and something they're encouraging as an alternative to buying a new Xbox.
 
Honestly the ball is in Sony's court and what they do will decide who will win this generation. The graphics will be similar and to the common person won't tell the difference. Hell most won't without looking at DF break down videos. Sony needs to back off their censor policies and not cave into the PC and SJW asshole which they seem to be doing. I will be getting a PS5 since I will have no use for a Xbox with a gaming PC.

I think the sex scene in TLoU2 is an indicator that they're backing off the censorship a bit, and we'll see how they handle cyberpunk.

Though, it's just virtual boobs. As long as the censorship doesn't mess up a story line, I'm cool with it.


Hellblade 2 is the only Xbox exclusive I'm excited for, and I'll play that when it comes out on PC.

Otherwise, their exclusives don't appeal to me.
 
If Microsoft ends up selling Xbox games, Xbox Live subscriptions, (and accessories) on the PC...does that count? It's all anecdotal of course, but I have have several friends and I've read plenty of posts here from people planning to do just that. Myself included. That's clearly part of their strategy and something they're encouraging as an alternative to buying a new Xbox.

They already are. Every first party release from MS for the past few years now has been on PC. They are even dipping into their back catalog, and selling their games on Steam. They have become significantly more PC forward over the years, and have already been vocal that their renewed support on PC is here to stay. They are even integrating cross-platform play (where appropriate). Their game pass subscription is on PC (and offers a massive value, especially at its current $5/mo price). Same goes for accessories, the Xbox controller is pretty much the default controller for PC, with support being baked into the OS and PC games defaulting to that being their officially supported controller.

The only thing missing is Xbox Live, and that will always be missing. MMO's aside, multiplayer on PC has been free for as long as it has existed. On consoles, it's pretty much never been free (PS3 is the only exception that comes to mind, and I guess Wii/U if you count that). They know console gamers have come to accept it, just like they know PC gamers never would. If Microsoft tried to charge people extra for online play on PC, the only thing they would be met with is a massive amount of backlash and a colossal failure of a product on PC. It would cost them far more than they could ever hope to make by doing it.
 
They already are. Every first party release from MS for the past few years now has been on PC. They are even dipping into their back catalog, and selling their games on Steam. They have become significantly more PC forward over the years, and have already been vocal that their renewed support on PC is here to stay. They are even integrating cross-platform play (where appropriate). Their game pass subscription is on PC (and offers a massive value, especially at its current $5/mo price). Same goes for accessories, the Xbox controller is pretty much the default controller for PC, with support being baked into the OS and PC games defaulting to that being their officially supported controller.

The only thing missing is Xbox Live, and that will always be missing. MMO's aside, multiplayer on PC has been free for as long as it has existed. On consoles, it's pretty much never been free (PS3 is the only exception that comes to mind, and I guess Wii/U if you count that). They know console gamers have come to accept it, just like they know PC gamers never would. If Microsoft tried to charge people extra for online play on PC, the only thing they would be met with is a massive amount of backlash and a colossal failure of a product on PC. It would cost them far more than they could ever hope to make by doing it.
They already tried charging PC gamers for multiplayer back when Games for Windows Live first launched 13 years ago, and the backlash was just as you describe it. I don't see Microsoft ever making that mistake again.
 
They already tried charging PC gamers for multiplayer back when Games for Windows Live first launched 13 years ago, and the backlash was just as you describe it. I don't see Microsoft ever making that mistake again.

Did they? I guess I don't remember that. If my memory serves me correct, Halo 2 was the first title to use GFWL, yeah? I don't remember paying for multiplayer, but I would have had an XBL subscription at the time. Did an XBL sub cover you on PC as well?

I do remember GFWL being a colossal piece of garbage, I just don't remember paying from the privilege.
 
Did they? I guess I don't remember that. If my memory serves me correct, Halo 2 was the first title to use GFWL, yeah? I don't remember paying for multiplayer, but I would have had an XBL subscription at the time. Did an XBL sub cover you on PC as well?

I do remember GFWL being a colossal piece of garbage, I just don't remember paying from the privilege.
Shadowrun was the first, followed closely by Halo 2. Yes, if you had a Gold subscription on Xbox you didn't have to pay extra for PC. Microsoft eliminated the subscription requirement on PC games a little over a year after GFWL launched.
 
My money is on XSX putting them back in the lead this generation.

Xbox One was a failure, no denying that, but it's easy to pinpoint why it failed. Before they launched, they got just about everything they could wrong. They touted media features when people wanted games. They touted DRM and digital future when poeple wanted discs (even though the future MS predicted came to pass anyway, there is a difference between it being organic and being forced). They touted a Kinect nobody wanted, and because of it came out with a console that was more expensive and less powerful than the competition. They did a ton of damage at launch and it followed them throughout the generation. The thing is... they made huge strides in the late game. Their hardware refresh dominated anything else on the market and was legitimately very impressive for the visuals it could produce (for a console). They started listening and backed down on basically all of their anti-consumer practices, and I think they have earned back a good deal of the favor they lost early on in the generation.

Your pinpoint about the Xbox One's failure is correct. They wanted to sell a entertainment hub instead of a gaming platform as well as selling consumers a unwanted peripheral at a premium cost. Nobody wanted that. However don't forget how massive of a failure the Xbox 360 was. 1 in every 2 sold died. Just think about that for a second. Not only that but some people went through 2, 3, and sometimes 4 or more replacements. Yes they released a better design later down the road, but it's not like Microsoft upgraded all original Xbox owners to the new design even after the first generation failed on them. I had to pay for my first repair very early on when buying my 360, but Microsoft did do right by me months later when they admitted there was a serious problem in the console design. While PS3 was insanely expensive that was comparatively way more reliable and still outsold the 360 in the end... not by much but it still did. My point is that Microsoft has shot itself in the foot twice in a row, and the Xbox One has completely failed to bring in new people to it's platform. The first party exclusive/system-sellers are just lame. Gears 5 was a total letdown to me b/c that gameplay is tired and old and didn't feel fresh at all. Halo 5 was embarrassingly bad and played like an hour of it and quit. Sea of Thieves while fun gets boring and repetitive quickly. Forza is always a great series, but there is no reason for me to buy those for Xbox because all 1st-party titles release simultaneously on PC now. That doesn't bring people to your platform unless Microsoft equates Windows gaming with Xbox gaming... I am not going to lie... I play my Xbox way more than my PS4 but only because all my friends and even my wife has Xboxes. So if I play online with friends it's on Xbox.




All of that seems to have been taken into consideration on the XSX. It's (on paper) the more powerful console. They are making some very impressive claims regarding backwards compatibility. They are making a gaming machine this time, not a jack of all trades entertainment hub. They have always had the better online service, and I think their Game Pass represents a tremendous value, something Sony really doesn't have an answer to, and something I see as a very valuable part of Microsoft's strategy to win people over.

Sony has Playstation Now which for $10/month or $60/year which actually offers a lot more than Game Pass. You can play PS Now games on literally any platform... Android, Computer, whatever. Has a metric shit ton of PS4, PS3, and PS2 games you can play. There's over 800 games you can play on PS Now over 3 console generations.




The big thing Sony has that Microsoft doesn't is better exclusives. And while that no doubt sells consoles, I don't think it determines the winner. Look at the sort of games that continue to sell well, year after year. It's the Call of Dutys, and the sports games, and Ubi's recycled dribble. You can get those experiences from either camp.

I've owned every console since the original Playstation. I don't play favorites, I'm not a fanboy to either camp. I'm sure ill inevitably own both of these two, but XSX is definitely the more interesting one to me. If they really have 4K upscaling and HDR working in all their BC titles, that's a huge draw. Gamepass is also a huge draw (particularly if it has a well supported library at launch)... $10 a month for a huge library of games is a big deal (and $15 to toss in XBL ain't bad either). In a world where netflix is the new normal, people aren't opposed to subscriptions, and $10 a month is well within the reach of juts about anyone. The value is overwhelming. I expect we will see MS double down on peoples willingness to lock into subscriptions, I can all but guarantee you'll see them offering at launch a bundle where you get a console, XBL, and gamepass, probably in the realm of $30-$40 a month on a 24 month contract. People will eat that up. Getting a new next gen console with online service and a wealth of games and only putting down $30-$40 is a big deal if the competition is asking for $500 + $60 to get online and another $60 per game you want to play.

Time will tell who's right, but I really think Xbox is far from dead.

Xbox is far from dead but they are massively unprepared for the Sony onslaught and have been for 2 generations now. Sony has a answer for everything Xbox has. I've never used my Playstation to play online and group chat and stuff, but I heard it's just as good as Xbox Live. I think the assumption of Xbox Live being the superior online platform is moot at this point. Especially when you take into account Microsoft's aggressive stance on PC gaming... ALL Xbox exclusives simultaneously release on PC and in recent years PC gaming has grown incredibly. The Xbox is not going to bring over anyone who is a PC gamer, and it's not going to bring over people who are already with Sony. Xbox is really going to have to come out with some exclusives and great console pricing if they want a chance this generation. I personally own every console, and while it may seem like I am talking a lot of shit about Xbox i'm really not... I don't care which console exceeds at what as long as a console has the game I want to play then I will get it, but I also have had every platform for a while now and I love both for differing reasons.
 
Sony has Playstation Now which for $10/month or $60/year which actually offers a lot more than Game Pass. You can play PS Now games on literally any platform... Android, Computer, whatever. Has a metric shit ton of PS4, PS3, and PS2 games you can play. There's over 800 games you can play on PS Now over 3 console generations.
PS NOW has no local play option. It is a game streaming service. Only a few games have the option to download a local copy. I tried the trial and it is not worth it at all because the input latency is too high and the quality isn't any good. All Game Pass games are downloaded and played locally.
 
PS NOW has no local play option. It is a game streaming service. Only a few games have the option to download a local copy. I tried the trial and it is not worth it at all because the input latency is too high and the quality isn't any good. All Game Pass games are downloaded and played locally.

I get the distinction, but I on the other hand have had no problem with latency. Also it wasn't accurate to say Sony has no answer to Game Pass. I want to add that I just looked and there are 300+ downloadable local games on PS Now. So saying PS Now "has no local play option" isn't accurate either.
 
PS NOW has no local play option. It is a game streaming service. Only a few games have the option to download a local copy. I tried the trial and it is not worth it at all because the input latency is too high and the quality isn't any good. All Game Pass games are downloaded and played locally.

I thought most or all PS4 games were available to download on PS Now? At least a quick Google shows almost 400 games were available to download as of August 2019. I haven't tried the service, as I have enough games in my backlog across all platforms already, but it seems somewhat enticing other than it still being too expensive, esp. compared to the value Games Pass offers. Fortunately the PSN store offers decent deals comparable to Steam in terms of price and frequency.

Personally, I own and buy games on all platforms and my Xbone really only gets used for 4K Blu-Ray playback and playing BC 360 games when I feel like revisiting them. I play mostly exclusives on my PS4 and Switch, which own most of my favorite games really, then I buy all other games on PC, which is everything that's available on Xbone. I don't care if Series X is considerably more powerful than PS5, it won't be as powerful as my PC and it won't have the stellar exclusive games/studios that are on Sony's side. So yeah, the ball really is in Sony's court next gen, which really all they have to do is compete with its BC and Smart Delivery features to keep dominating it.
 
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I love Playstation exclusives, but honestly the XSX seems pretty appealing.

Playing the full back-catalog of Xbox games in 4K60 HDR, I could be happy with that even if no new games come out at all.
 
I wonder if there will be a booming industry of old Xbox OG games that once sold for $2 at GameStop fetching top dollar (I imagine some of them are rare now).
 
Xbox is far from dead but they are massively unprepared for the Sony onslaught and have been for 2 generations now. Sony has a answer for everything Xbox has. I've never used my Playstation to play online and group chat and stuff, but I heard it's just as good as Xbox Live. I think the assumption of Xbox Live being the superior online platform is moot at this point. Especially when you take into account Microsoft's aggressive stance on PC gaming... ALL Xbox exclusives simultaneously release on PC and in recent years PC gaming has grown incredibly. The Xbox is not going to bring over anyone who is a PC gamer, and it's not going to bring over people who are already with Sony. Xbox is really going to have to come out with some exclusives and great console pricing if they want a chance this generation. I personally own every console, and while it may seem like I am talking a lot of shit about Xbox i'm really not... I don't care which console exceeds at what as long as a console has the game I want to play then I will get it, but I also have had every platform for a while now and I love both for differing reasons.

to be honest the fact that you can play games on both is actually a selling point in my opinion.. being able to play games cross platform with me on PC and my friends on Xbox(because they don't want PC's and i hate playing on consoles) is a huge advantage. sony needs people to buy the PS5 because their money making games are exclusive to it(they lose money for every console sold which is a huge disadvantage), microsoft in the grand scheme of things doesn't ultimately care if people buy the xbox, just as long as people are buying the games because the games are where they make money, not the console it's self which is also sold at a loss like the PS5. but the console it's self does make an affordable option over building a gaming PC for the vast majority of consumers.

i think people get too locked in this PS vs xbox console crap and lose sight of the much larger picture of what the companies are trying to do. the days of sony vs nintendo vs sega exclusive games war isn't really a thing anymore. microsoft has moved on for that and sony is still stuck living in the past due to idiotic decisions they made as a company by putting all their eggs in the playstation and not diversifying their game sales options. you'll see that change over the next year or two.
 
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to be honest the fact that you can play games on both is actually a selling point in my opinion.. being able to play games cross platform with me on PC and my friends on Xbox(because they don't want PC's and i hate playing on consoles) is a huge advantage. sony needs people to buy the PS5 because their money making games are exclusive to it(they lose money for every console sold which is a huge disadvantage), microsoft in the grand scheme of things doesn't ultimately care if people buy the xbox, just as long as people are buying the games because the games are where they make money, not the console it's self which is also sold at a loss like the PS5. but the console it's self does make an affordable option over building a gaming PC for the vast majority of consumers.

i think people get too locked in this PS vs xbox console crap and lose sight of the much larger picture of what the companies are trying to do. the days of sony vs nintendo vs sega exclusive games war isn't really a thing anymore. microsoft has moved on for that and sony is still stuck living in the past due to idiotic decisions they made as a company by putting all their eggs in the playstation and not diversifying their game sales options. you'll see that change over the next year or two.
The difference is Sony is not in the operating system business. To Microsoft, every Windows PC is a potential "Xbox" customer, but all Sony has are their consoles. I think this is why Sony is becoming more open to releasing games on other platforms including Windows so they don't lose out on that revenue stream. However, I think Sony is still being clever with their marketing tricks as you read all over the internet about people drinking the Kool Aid on how amazing their storage solution is and other nonsense.
 
Microsoft seems to have thrown in the towel and conceded the exclusives to Sony and are now competing based on hardware
 
Microsoft seems to have thrown in the towel and conceded the exclusives to Sony and are now competing based on hardware
That is an odd conclusion given the studio buying spree Microsoft has engaged in for the past couple years. I have to find it again, but there was a recent interview where Phil Spencer said that Sony are not their competitors.
 
That is an odd conclusion given the studio buying spree Microsoft has engaged in for the past couple years. I have to find it again, but there was a recent interview where Phil Spencer said that Sony are not their competitors.

who do they consider their competitors if not Sony?
 
Microsoft seems to have thrown in the towel and conceded the exclusives to Sony and are now competing based on hardware

Does Microsoft have the capability to innovate on software?

Innovation requires a risk taking attitude that does away with the familiar & ventures boldly into the unknown.
 
Your pinpoint about the Xbox One's failure is correct. They wanted to sell a entertainment hub instead of a gaming platform as well as selling consumers a unwanted peripheral at a premium cost. Nobody wanted that. However don't forget how massive of a failure the Xbox 360 was. 1 in every 2 sold died. Just think about that for a second. Not only that but some people went through 2, 3, and sometimes 4 or more replacements. Yes they released a better design later down the road, but it's not like Microsoft upgraded all original Xbox owners to the new design even after the first generation failed on them. I had to pay for my first repair very early on when buying my 360, but Microsoft did do right by me months later when they admitted there was a serious problem in the console design. While PS3 was insanely expensive that was comparatively way more reliable and still outsold the 360 in the end... not by much but it still did. My point is that Microsoft has shot itself in the foot twice in a row, and the Xbox One has completely failed to bring in new people to it's platform. The first party exclusive/system-sellers are just lame. Gears 5 was a total letdown to me b/c that gameplay is tired and old and didn't feel fresh at all. Halo 5 was embarrassingly bad and played like an hour of it and quit. Sea of Thieves while fun gets boring and repetitive quickly. Forza is always a great series, but there is no reason for me to buy those for Xbox because all 1st-party titles release simultaneously on PC now. That doesn't bring people to your platform unless Microsoft equates Windows gaming with Xbox gaming... I am not going to lie... I play my Xbox way more than my PS4 but only because all my friends and even my wife has Xboxes. So if I play online with friends it's on Xbox.

I don't view the 360 as a failure by any stretch, and I say that knowing full well how high the failure rate was on the original system. I think their strategy of releasing a flawed console design just to be first to market was a bad one, but the reality is the 360 sold very well, and outsold Sony for a long time. It was a lot more affordable, it had the better online infrastructure, and often had better running games, despite being less powerful, because developers found it's PC-like architecture much easier to develop on than Sony's cell. Honesty, 360 was Microsoft's greatest success in the console arena. The OG Xbox was a good console, but I don't recall it being super popular against Sony and Nintendo's already established brands. It was the underdog, it felt like a "me too" console. The 360 was a genuine success story that made Microsoft a mainstream player in the console race. Faults and all.

The work that the 360 did to build up the Xbox's multiplayer community (it's biggest strength) was severely hurt by the Xbox One. Microsoft needs that back, and that's why I place such a high importance on Game Pass. Think about the cost of ownership for these consoles at launch. Let's assume both are $500. That's a lot of money, especially during a recession. But, you buy an Xbox, and after dropping $500 all you need is another $15 and you're online, playing Halo with your friends, and have a massive catalog of other games to enjoy on top of it. PS5, after dropping $500, your at the very least another $60 for a game to play on it (and lets be real, who wants to drop $500 on a new console generation and only buy one game). And if you don't have an online sub, you're another $60 for that. Most people would be looking at $700 - $800 all said and done just to have a handful of games and the ability to play online. Suddenly, Microsoft has a significantly better value. For all their faults when it comes to designing a piece of hardware, they are very clever when it comes to marketing and very insightful as to what consumers want. Hell, even the future they envisioned for Xbox One, the thing that did so much damage pre-launch, ended up coming to pass. They envisioned a market that would abandon disks in favor of digital games, and designed an ecosystem that prioritized that. Everyone went "fuck you, you're not taking my disks away" -- and 5 years later digital heavily outsells physical media. Microsoft wasn't wrong in where the market was headed, they were simply wrong by trying to force it instead of letting it happen organically. Their actions this round have been significantly more consumer friendly and they have been 100% focused on making a game machine. They fixed the things that soured the XO in everyone's mind, and they are going full steam ahead on the idea that all digital media is going the way of Netflix. This time, people are ready for it. I don't think you can undersell that strategy.

Sony has Playstation Now which for $10/month or $60/year which actually offers a lot more than Game Pass. You can play PS Now games on literally any platform... Android, Computer, whatever. Has a metric shit ton of PS4, PS3, and PS2 games you can play. There's over 800 games you can play on PS Now over 3 console generations.

Playstation Now is a streaming service, not any sort of emulation / backwards compatibility. Full disclosure, I've never used it, but I've never experienced a video game streaming service I thought was worth a damn. Vita remote play sucked. Steam remote play sucks. Geforce Now sucks. Stadia sucks. It's a notably sub-par experience. Maybe PS Now is different... but its likely i'll never know.

I'd argue consumers agree with me. Based on some quick google-fu, PS Now has ~2 million subscribers. Game pass has ~10 million subscribers. I think we've got a case of quantity vs. quality here, and I think it's clear Microsoft's approach is the better received approach. And I think their lead with become even more significant if they can really deliver on the promise of providing HDR and 4K up scaling to their entire back catalog. Now, not only are your games running native, they're also looking better than they've ever looked, giving people a reason to revisit their back catalog. Nostalgia is big right now, we're constantly getting games that are remastered, remade, re-this, re-that.... and people are eating it up. Again, I see this as a case of MS being good at marketing. They are offering up the console that remasters everything, for free. Obviously, i'm making an assumption that they can deliver, since we haven't seen it in action... but if they do, I think this will be significant.

Xbox is far from dead but they are massively unprepared for the Sony onslaught and have been for 2 generations now. Sony has a answer for everything Xbox has. I've never used my Playstation to play online and group chat and stuff, but I heard it's just as good as Xbox Live. I think the assumption of Xbox Live being the superior online platform is moot at this point. Especially when you take into account Microsoft's aggressive stance on PC gaming... ALL Xbox exclusives simultaneously release on PC and in recent years PC gaming has grown incredibly. The Xbox is not going to bring over anyone who is a PC gamer, and it's not going to bring over people who are already with Sony. Xbox is really going to have to come out with some exclusives and great console pricing if they want a chance this generation. I personally own every console, and while it may seem like I am talking a lot of shit about Xbox i'm really not... I don't care which console exceeds at what as long as a console has the game I want to play then I will get it, but I also have had every platform for a while now and I love both for differing reasons.

Sony does not have an answer to everything MS has. I don't consider PS now an answer to Game Pass, and I do not consider Sony's "top 100" PS4 game BC an answer to Microsoft's "if it worked on Xbox One, it works on Series X". Likewise, Sony does not have an answer to the fact that things are not just compatible on XSX, they're better.

At this point in both consoles life cycle, I would agree that their online platforms have reached equality. I don't find one preferable over the other, but this is only true of the current generation. Up until PS4, Microsoft absolutely dominated here. I do think XBL offers a more attractive value when mixed in with game pass though.

Regarding exclusives, your correct that with them finally understanding the importance of PC, their console is less enticing to PC gamers. And yet, I can tell you, as a person who will always buy on PC if PC is an option, I'm more interested in XSX than PS5... based solely on their approach to BC. If I can dip into the vast OG Xbox, 360, and XO library and experience it all in 4K HDR, that will absolutely sell me a console. It'll sell me a console i'll probably never buy a modern game on. I'll say it again, don't underestimate the power of breathing new life into the old games that made people into gamers. That market is growing every day, and I firmly believe that market can sell consoles. As to bringing over PS4 players, time will tell. The BC argument still is valid, even if someone doesn't own Xbox games because they've been team Sony, they can have that massive library via gamepass, making it very approachable for Sony gamers to experience four generations of content they've missed. I see that as a compelling reason to consider switching, especially if Sony's BC ends up as messy as it sounds like it could be. I don't want a console where I can only play some of my PS4 games. If I can't play them all, I still have to either keep a PS4 under my TV, or retire those games. I don't like that. Also consider that MS has spent the last few years on a developer buying spree. This tells me they are aware their first party catalog is lacking, and it also tells me they are moving in the right direction to bolster it. Expect this to be a significant talking point at their big reveal next week.

Like you, I support both platforms. I've had every playstation and every xbox. I'm not playing favorites and I'm not biased towards any product or company. My gut simply tells me that MS is coming out strong this year. They know they have something to prove and their actions reflect it. They are (at least publicly) a totally different company than they were when XO launched. Sony, by contrast, seems to be being very casual about their new hardware, as if they aren't trying as hard because they know they dominated the previous generation.

I also think Microsoft is in a better position financially. They have not been shy about the fact that they are going to undercut Sony on price. My prediction here: we'll see $399 / $499 for the two PS5 models, and MS will answer back with a $399 console that includes a disk drive, and a $199-$299 of whatever Lockhart is supposed to be. You're going to see them heavily advertise game pass and you're going to see them make a major talking point out of the fact that their console is less expensive to buy and less expensive to have a massive library of games on. They are going to appeal to families, where in $15 a month buys more games than your kids could ever play, and enough variety that everyone in the family will find something to enjoy. They will focus on the potential for a substantially lower total cost of ownership... something especially important during a global recession. That's going to put a lot of Xboxes under Christmas trees this year.

To be clear, I don't think Sony is in any sort of danger. I think the PS5 is going to sell very well. I think it's quite likely it will be the better selling console at the end of this upcoming console cycle. I also think that everyone trying to spell doom in gloom for MS, saying they are dying, setting them up for failure, etc. is either thinking with bias or failing to understand that the average gamer doesn't think like the average [H]er and the sort of opinions you find here aren't the opinions that are going to determine the outcome of this generation. I expect both consoles to sell very well and I expect MS to do substantially better this generation than the last.

(sorry for the wall of text... work is exceptionally boring today and I've spent 3 hours doing nothing... makes it easy to ramble)
 
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