Metro Exodus Is an Epic Store Exclusive

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by cageymaru, Jan 28, 2019.

  1. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    See, that's my whole point. That is still a total pain in the ass. Sure, it's a small step toward something more ideal, but I'd find another candy bar that I could get at the store I feel like going to. Which is my only point here. I'm not going to Epic for Metro. So, they lost my sale (at least for now, but possibly period.) I'm not telling anyone else not to buy it from Epic. I'm just talking about why I personally don't want to. You know, forum and all that.

    Here's another example, and not necessarily one to one. I don't have a PS4. (my son does, but I'm not going to sit in his room to play :D ) I'm missing some pretty cool games that I'd love to play, but not badly enough to buy a PS4 for myself. Just more effort than that's worth for me. The Switch has games that I consider must-haves, so I bought one of those. (I just like N games that much...) On the PC, I get most of the games I want in Steam. Metro isn't worth me getting from Epic, even though I'd love to play it. But, I just don't care enough to make me buy it from Epic. Now RAGE 2, is what really pisses me off, because it IS worth it to me to sign up for a stupid Beth account, even though I don't want to, because I want to play THAT game THAT much. These are all of course based on my own personal taste, preferences, games I like to play, companies I like and dislike, my own OCD of liking things in a tidy package, etc. I'm not saying my case reflect that of anyone else. Just saying why this particular case bothers me, and apparently a lot of other people have their own reasons for saying the same thing. (that don't necessarily align with my reasons, even if we agree)

    I guess I should just say that I'm not up in arms in an outrage. I'm just stating that I think this was a bad move, they lost my sale, and I don't think this sort of practice is good. Nobody has to agree with me.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
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  2. Comixbooks

    Comixbooks Ignore Me

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    201 replies on this thread just wasted development launching games on Epic.
     
  3. tetris42

    tetris42 [H]ardness Supreme

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    Well you say you're not against competition, but that's exactly what this is. I imagine the figures have eroded somewhat, but in 2017, Valve was taking about 50-70% of all PC gaming sales. That's the majority of the entire market, it's de facto monopoly status.

    I get where you're coming from on not wanting Epic to limit where companies can sell their games, but it's kind of a necessary evil. Valve is so heavily entrenched, no store would stand a chance competing against them today without exclusives. I would argue Epic's only HOPE of competing is by pulling tricks like this. If you want an example of what competing on equal ground against a monopoly looks like WITHOUT exclusives, take a look a desktop Linux v. Windows.

    I think the people who don't like this aren't looking at the big picture. Here's what's likely to come from store exclusives:

    Short term:
    +Higher percentage of revenue going to the developer
    +Periodic free games
    -Less revenue options for the developer agreeing to this
    -Less choice for the consumer where to purchase specific games

    Long term:
    +Pressure on the entire industry to have more money go to the developer by establishing a 12% standard.
    +More competition in the PC gaming market since stores will have to prove themselves more. This could mean more sales, features, etc.
    +Less risk of any one company retaining monopoly status
    -It's still Tencent

    Personally, I'm seeing more positive than negative coming from this. It's not that I trust Epic, it's that I don't trust ANY of these companies, so if they're in real competition, all the better.
     
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  4. DPI

    DPI Nitpick Police

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    50-70% isn't a "monopoly".
    No, their only hope isn't slimeball tactics and poaching games and begging publishers not to sell games on Steam with bribe checks of Fortnite cash - that's only going to piss potential customers off from ever using their store. They're making a huge mistake in being so polarizing.

    Their only hope is making a disruptively better store client that addresses the major complaints about Steam. Be better than fucking Steam. If they want to sacrifice part of their revenue share to have games appearing on Steam be cheaper on Epic, cool, consumers benefit. But writing checks to publishers with the memo line "Don't sell your game on Steam, k?" is bullshit and its going to backfire on them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
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  5. DPI

    DPI Nitpick Police

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    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  6. tetris42

    tetris42 [H]ardness Supreme

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    That's why I said "de facto monopoly." Yes, there are technically other options for developers besides Steam, but none that are particularly realistic for a 3rd party looking to make money. That's what a de facto monopoly means. When you control the majority of the market, you can dictate terms on things. After all, when's the last time you heard of an indie game NOT releasing on Steam? That figure is from 2017 as it is. Prior to Origin, Uplay, etc., that number was likely much higher. In other words, it's only that low BECAUSE of competing stores offering exclusive games.

    You've said this before in another thread, I asked you to put your money where your mouth was and asked you how, then it was crickets. What feature could Epic add that would make it SO MUCH BETTER than Steam, that people wouldn't consider buying a game on Steam and would instead go with Epic? I suspect you didn't answer the question because there isn't an answer. At the end of the day, an online store is a store. People want the game they're looking for. If it has that and it's not garbage, other features aren't likely to make much of a difference and I suspect you know that, but you're going with "make it better" rhetoric.

    Once again, I have to point out the approach you're advocating is alive and well on desktop Linux today. They're an OS competing fairly and not forcing exclusives going up against Windows, another de facto monopoly. How's that marketshare working out for them? Bottom line: your advice is a nice fantasy about increasing competition, but in the face of an existing monopoly, it doesn't work.
     
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  7. J3RK

    J3RK [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I saw that too. I doubt that it will "kill the series" but it's definitely not going to make as much money as it could have. It really was a stupid idea all around for just about everyone involved. It'll probably sell a little bit more on Epic's store than it would have if it was also properly released on Steam, but I really don't think it would have been night and day. People that want to shift to Epic's shop are going to do it. People that are that jazzed about $10 off in some cases might also jump to Epic. People that don't want to though probably wouldn't have anyway. (though I'm sure some people will follow the games they want as well) This could shift a bit this way or that way, but if they were smart, they'd have sold it on as many platforms, shops, brick and mortars, key sites, etc. as possible. That's how you make the most money.

    I wonder how many potential Epic convert studios and publishers are watching this right now hinging on how this does. Maybe it's not as big a deal as I think it is, but I've seen a LOT of coverage, and that dev's post seems to support at least some of my own hypotheses.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  8. Ranulfo

    Ranulfo [H]ard|Gawd

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  9. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

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    It will. And it wont make the money it could have made. Any smart person who wants to make money doesn't bet on just one storefront. Would Walmart or Amazon be what they are if they only had one storefront? No, in fact, they would probably be out of business by now. Same with stocks, you diversify.

    Putting this game on one storefront boggles my mind. What a dumb move.
     
  10. Flogger23m

    Flogger23m [H]ardForum Junkie

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    It isn't exactly the same as Amazon and Walmart. You can still purchase the game from other stores. Much like how you can purchase a Steam game on Amazon.
     
  11. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Can you run the game outside of the Epic store though? Say just from the .exe file? Or will it require you to log into their service? I sense a hack incoming.
     
  12. Jim Kim

    Jim Kim 2[H]4U

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    This is a big win for Epic. As for the complainers, 99.9985% will still buy the game on Epic.
    So much faux outrage from the reddit "review bomb" brigade. sad
     
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  13. Flogger23m

    Flogger23m [H]ardForum Junkie

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    If it's an Epic key it won't work elsewhere just like Steam and Origin.

    So it's like 90% of all PC games over the last decade.

    Ironically for DCS Steam stopped accepting keys bought from the developers store even though they're still sold on Steam. So Valve isn't as open as you'd think. Originally you were able to use keys on both Steam or their own store and switch between the two at will. Valve shut that down though.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2019
  14. Krenum

    Krenum [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Try to put yourself in someones shoes that was looking forward to playing the game, only to have it scalped by a developer store font they don't support. You might think its crazy for people to have principles but people do. That faux outrage turns into real outrage, it isn't the first time its happened and wont be the last but it still sucks & people have a reason to be upset.

    (Insert argument about being entitled reply here)
     
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  15. sharknice

    sharknice [H]ard|Gawd

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    Epic doesn't add or force any DRM, so as long as the devs don't add anything to prevent it you could just run the exe without even using the launcher.
     
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  16. dark_reign

    dark_reign 2[H]4U

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    But with much lower sales compared if it were also selling on Steam. The devs/publisher must like losing money.
     
  17. tetris42

    tetris42 [H]ardness Supreme

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    It's not that I think it's crazy for people to have principles, it's that I've never seen customers in games stand up for them in a way that matters and for much bigger battles comparatively.

    Intel breaking the law globally and committing illegal predatory business practices = nobody cared once Intel was faster again
    Valve releasing Half-Life 2 on Steam and ushering in a standard where you don't really own your game, you usually have to check in with a server that could some day be shut down = Protesting by people many of which are now defending the service
    Alan Wake + Heavy Rain announced for PC, only to be bought by Microsoft / Sony and made console exclusives = nobody cared
    Modern Warfare 2 removing private servers = a boycott that didn't work, now it's become a standard
    Diablo 3 forcing always online DRM on a franchise that never had any = nobody cared as long as they could log in

    The list goes on and on how rights for the consumer have eroded. But, somehow, THIS is the issue on which people draw a line in the sand? I'm not trying to discount people who legitimately object to it on an actual moral principle (as opposed to those whining about convenience), so much as the house of gaming is already in ruins, this is such a minor issue in comparison and ironically, could have actually have some good coming from it in the long term, unlike the other practices.
     
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  18. exlink

    exlink [H]ardness Supreme

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    Do you think that most gamers care if its only on the EGS opposed to also on Steam? Frankly, the average gamer cares about playing the game and not what launcher its on. They may lose some sales due to a handful of gamers that are so inconvenienced by having to install another launcher, but these individuals hardly make up a large sum of the overall community. And their decision to not buy the game won't result in "much lower" sales; it may cause a tiny ripple, but not a wave. If the game doesn't sell well because it sucks or is just average then the developers have a convenient scapegoat.

    We went through these same arguments when Origin came out and EA decided to stop putting their games on Steam and instead onto Origin. A whole bunch of "outrage" and people threatening to boycott the launcher and its exclusives. And...nothing happened. People ended up installing the launcher and buying the exclusive games on there because in the end people want to play the games and not the launcher.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2019
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  19. LurkerLito

    LurkerLito 2[H]4U

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    Actually yes because it is not a permanent exclusive but a temporary timed one.

    See that's not completely right. There is a good number of people that care, whether that is a significant number or not will always depend on how badly the consumers want that product and if alternatives will or will not be available in the future for those products. Consumers started using Origin ONLY because the new releases of their new game properties were released permanently on Origin only, but I haven't seen or heard of any other third parties going to Origin as their sole distributor. It's simply that the Origin userbase isn't big enough to generate the sales that third parties need. There was no choice given to consumers so EA games made a monopoly on those game properties so even if the boycott was real, most caved because it was impossible to get the game they wanted outside of pirating it without Origin.

    If given a choice like uPlay, I would bet the majority of the sales are NOT direct from uPlay but from the hybrid frankenstein that is Steam with uPlay. Unfortunately I haven't seen any numbers to support that theory, but I would say it's a fair assumption that their sales were much better with steam than on their own given that uPlay has never pulled it's games from steam.

    This game is going to be a big test case for EGS and other publishers are going to watching it closely. I think since it is not a permanent exclusive, there are going to be a significant push on the consumer side to wait for it on steam or other platforms so it'll be as if it was put out as a EA kickstarter game on the EGS. There will still be buyers that much is certain, but a not so insignificant chunk will wait for the final "real" release in Feb 2020 on the platform they prefer. That is what a lot of people are going be looking at in terms of numbers, will ME be able to hit it's estimated sales targets without steam. If it does then other publishers might follow, if not then don't expect to have many more exclusive releases on EGS from major companies without some kind of big check from Epic given to the publisher to offset it's potential loss of sales. The developer has a good reason to worry about this move "killing the series". Publishers are notorious about killing/shelving properties that don't generate the expected sales in the expected amount of time. We will know for sure about a week to a month after release.
     
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  20. odditory

    odditory [H]ardness Supreme

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    Except Origin is not the same. Apples v. Oranges. And EA will never know how many additional millions they left on the table by not offering BF3 on Steam.

    EA offering their first party titles on a store where they have full control and can collect telemetrics is a world apart from Epic calling up publishers and saying "Hey if you take your game off of Steam we'll give you a big bag of Fortnite cash." That's a red line for a lot of people.

    So what's on trial is Epic's shady and underhanded business practice, which they candy coat in pretending to be pro-developer when they're really just being anti-consumer.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2019
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  21. Exavior

    Exavior [H]ardForum Junkie

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    It is a terrible shame that fortnight game or whatever it was called never took of. If only they had more than 100 people that ever played that game maybe Epic could have people using their platform.
     
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  22. Ranulfo

    Ranulfo [H]ard|Gawd

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    The difference here is that I'm not forced to buy solely via Origin or Uplay, even on games that require those platforms. Uplay has let people buy on Steam and via key sites. There is no reason for me to buy Division2 on Epic given I can preorder Division2 at 10% or more off from a few stores and uplay is required no matter what. I've never bought a game directly through Origin, not even EA games. Most of the games I have there are EA published and bought from various stores elsewhere, like Amazon.

    I understand why some of these indie devs are going to Epic but it means I have to weigh how much I want to play a game that is going to a monopoly system with so far little features or price cuts or potential for price competition. So far there is only one game exclusive to them that I might buy from them on release and only because Im in the alpha for it so I have first hand knowledge of its potential. Its a shame too because Genesis Alpha One and Rebel Galaxy Outlaw (both single player games) look good but since I can't get it elsewhere and they likely will not be DRM free, I'll wait and see what happens on prices and availability. GAO looks damn fun from the videos I've seen with a few bugs/gameplay flaws. Maybe in a year when it comes out on steam or elsewhere it will be more polished and worth a look.
     
  23. dark_reign

    dark_reign 2[H]4U

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    If they had kept it exclusive to EGS from the get-go I don't see a problem with it. Pulling it from Steam for a year was a stupid business decision unless by some miracle the game sells better than expected.
     
  24. Flogger23m

    Flogger23m [H]ardForum Junkie

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    You can buy Metro on a 3rd party store as well. Or at least you could. Some sites are not getting anymore Steam keys though and are getting Epic codes from now on for Metro. I assume they'll continue to issue as many Epic store codes as needed.
     
  25. Deathroned

    Deathroned Gawd

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    please stop pulling stuff out of your rectum, Steam takes a cut for every sale worldwide, Steam starts taking 30 percent from your first sale, then decrease it to 25% after you have made 10 million us dollars, they then take a 25% cut until you reach 50 million us dollars, then they take 20% after you have made more than 50 million us dollars, whist the Epic Games Store takes 12% from your first sale.

    Epic Games Store = more money per sale.
     
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  26. Delicieuxz

    Delicieuxz Gawd

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    Please don't ramble BS you made up on the spot. As I said, which maybe you didn't bother to read before posting, Metro Exodus is going to easily clear $50 million, probably many times over.

    If Metro Exodus makes $250+ million, as I think is expectable, then the pre $50 million sales are not enough to tip the sales profits in Epic store's favour.


    Epic's 12% of $50 leaves 4A / Deep Silver with $44 per copy


    Valve's 30% of $60 leaves 4A / Deep Silver with $42 per copy

    Valve's 25% of $60 leaves 4A / Deep Silver with $45 per copy

    Valve's 20% of $60 leaves 4A / Deep Silver with $48 per copy


    So, as soon as ME hits $10 million in sales Steam is a better deal. ME's budget was probably over $100 million, and could have been over $200 million. It's sales are going to be well over $100 million, and could be several hundred million.

    The first $10 million is obviously not what decides the matter. Hands-down, 4A and Deep Silver get more money per sale of ME from Steam @ $60 than they do from Epic @ $50.

    At the Steam and Epic price points for Metro Exodus, Steam store = more money per sale.


    The only reason Deep Silver is pulling out of Steam and going exclusive to Epic for the first year is because Epic is paying them a large lump sum of cash to do so.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
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  27. Deathroned

    Deathroned Gawd

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    you still don't get it do you, steam starts taking 30% then decrease it when you hit those revenue targets then decrease it. lmao @ Gabe's NPC's and their delusions.
     
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  28. Flogger23m

    Flogger23m [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Something else to consider. $50 makes it cheaper which may make more people buy it at full price. If you have to choose between two games you want but will only buy one right now (due to time or money on hand) you'll go for the cheaper one.

    To hit the supposed threshold may be harder than you think. Does the amount count for net profits for Valve or total gross price of the game sale? Also keep in mind places like Russia or Poland charge far less and that PC gamers only make up about 1/3 of all AAA game sales.
     
  29. Delicieuxz

    Delicieuxz Gawd

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    Oh, wow. Do you actually struggle this much to understand things that are this simple and clear-cut?


    Maybe this will break it down enough for you:

    1. Steam's fee is applied in tiers based on how much money a game makes.

    2. The first tier is when a game has made $0, and then Valve collects a 30% fee on all copies sold up to $10 million.

    3. The second tier is when a game has made $10 million, and then Valve collects a 25% fee on all copies sold up to $50 million.

    4. The third tier is when a game has made $50 million, and then Valve collects a 20% fee on all copies sold from then onward.

    5. As soon as Metro Exodus reaches $10 million, which might occur after the first 8% of preorders, every copy of ME sold through Steam is more profitable for 4A and Deep Silver than every copy sold through Epic store.

    6. By the time ME has reached 1 million in sales (which will be required for 4A to break even on development costs), Steam will be the more profitable platform.

    7. Metro Exodus will sell millions of copies and generate sales in the hundreds of millions of dollars. So, $10 million at $2 less is insignificant when there will be another $200 million or more at $1 - $4 more from Steam copies

    8. Hands-down, based on the sale price and the platform fees, it is far more profitable for 4A / Deep Silver to sell ME through Steam than through Epic store. It is only because Tim Sweeney is paying Deep Silver to make ME exclusive to Epic store that ME has been pulled from Steam.



    Now, maybe the issue is that you're mathematically challenged. If that's the case, then simply take a look at how the economics add up:


    4 million Epic sales of a $50 game = $200,000,000 total revenue, with $44 per copy going to the publisher = $176,000,000 going to 4A and Deep Silver


    4 million Steam sales of a $60 game = $240,000,000 total revenue, with:

    $10 million with a fee of 30% = $42 per copy going to the publisher = $7,000,000 going to 4A and Deep Silver

    $40 million with a fee of 25% = $45 per copy going to the publisher = $30,000,000 going to 4A and Deep Silver

    $190 million with a fee of 20% = $48 per copy going to the publisher = $152,000,000 going to 4A and Deep Silver

    For a total of $189,000,000 going to 4A and Deep Silver


    $176 million (from Epic) < $189 million (from Steam)



    Now, as this next example shows, by the time 4A and Deep Silver sell 1 million copies of Metro Exodus on Steam, they will have made $1 million more than they would from selling 1 million copies through the Epic store:

    1 million copies sold through Epic = $44,000,000 to 4A and Deep Silver

    1 million copies sold through Steam = 7,000,000 (30%) + 30,000,000 (25%) + 8,000,000 (20%) = $45,000,000 to 4A and Deep Silver


    Each subsequent million copies sold through Steam will be even more profitable for 4A and Deep Silver, bringing in $48,000,000 per million sold compared to Epic's $44,000,000.



    This is very straight forward: Without Tim Sweeney's lump-sum payment to Deep Silver in exchange for them making ME an Epic exclusive, Steam is clearly more profitable for 4A and Deep Silver.

    So, either the person struggling with (or struggling to accept) basic math is probably a cringe-worthy Epic sycophant that's embarrassed after having stuck their foot in their mouth and is now trying to bluff their way out of their embarrassment, or otherwise they're a paid Epic shill. I'm guessing they're the former.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
  30. NuclearLemons

    NuclearLemons [H]Lite

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    thank god. someone finally ran the numbers. wonder how much deep silver got paid to shrug such a loss off.
     
  31. lostin3d

    lostin3d [H]ard|Gawd

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  32. sharknice

    sharknice [H]ard|Gawd

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    I think this game is going to sell a lot more because of all the publicity it's getting from the controversy.

    Have they ever released their pc sales numbers for the previous games?

    People are acting like it's a super huge AAA best seller title. As far as I could tell the previous games weren't that big on PC.
     
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  33. exlink

    exlink [H]ardness Supreme

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    I believe they never officially released sales numbers. And honestly, I don't think the series is as hot of a seller as some individuals from this thread think it is. I'd almost be willing to bet that the vast majority of copies from the previous two Metro games were bought once they hit the deep discount prices years after release.
     
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  34. Ranulfo

    Ranulfo [H]ard|Gawd

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    Which stores? I'm not seeing any stores now other than Epic (and Steam is still showing up for likely a database update issue on isthereanydeal site).

    https://isthereanydeal.com/game/metroexodus/info/

    This sequel has been advertised and hyped up more than the others, along with RTX features in the game. So I think it will do better than the earlier games.
     
  35. Flogger23m

    Flogger23m [H]ardForum Junkie

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    No doubt it will, but it is still tiny compared to games like CoD, BF, or Fallout. If they get 1 million in sales on PC within the first month I'd be really impressed ($60 million). Consoles will make up ~70% of the sales which is something most people here forget. While PC success is important, it isn't the defining sales platform (PS4 is). Add in the cost of the average sale price, say $30 in Russia, Poland or Ukraine (where Metro's market is strong), and hitting those projected targets above will be much harder. I assume at least 30% if not 40% of all sales will be to countries where the cost is well under half of what Americans/Canadians/Australians/western Europeans pay.

    Hitting that $50 million threshold is going to be harder than many think.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
  36. pek

    pek prairie dog

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  37. lostin3d

    lostin3d [H]ard|Gawd

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    At this point my faith in Epic to even support this game is nil. I contacted their support regarding whether or not they would have cloud saves(something I love about Steam) and if there were going to be any install/activation limits(never know even if it seems unlikely). I got a generic email with a link to support for Fortnite. A few days later I got a survey email regarding their response and I repeated my questions along with mentioning I wasn't asking about Fortnite. That was last week.

    Not happy with their handling of 2 simple questions or this exclusive, so I'll just wait until it comes back to Steam. You'd think such a small company trying to make a big move like this would have greater care for prospective customers. Not a good way to start.
     
  38. naib

    naib [H]ard|Gawd

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    The Lulz keep on coming



    DzddMB-WkAE3FqJ.jpg




    Dzdck76WkAEnLBN.png
     
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  39. Jim Kim

    Jim Kim 2[H]4U

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    My only quess is they are currently inundated with a million entitled gamers asking them when their brand new store front will have ALL of the features that the other Store front added over a 15+ year time-frame.
    Give it time, nothing happens overnight.
     
    Flogger23m and GoldenTiger like this.
  40. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

    Messages:
    28,037
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2000

    It's almost as if rushing and switching things in the last minute has consequences.

    Who would have thought...
     
    Krenum and J3RK like this.