Linux Who? Windows Still King of the Desktop

[ChadD]

Whoa, slow down there, your logic is making my head spin. First off, you're right, Windows is not the target platform for many major game publishers (for smaller ones I'd argue it is), it's closer to SECOND. Now that article is from 2015, but if you look at Ubisoft sales data for early 2017, it still holds true. While Ubisoft isn't the end-all of companies, they're one of the few that make their sales by platform public and are a major publisher.

Second, you're making a pretty big fallacy in my opinion. You're assuming that because the PS4 uses BSD, everything's in line for publishers to release games straight to Linux. What if I told you that doesn't matter? How easy it is to port the game from one platform to another is not the PRIMARY consideration for a major developer to decide to make a port. How PROFITABLE it's anticipated to be is. No major studio is going to release on console, then release on Linux, and bypass Windows altogether. That's because on Windows they could maybe pick up 25% of total sales, and on Linux they could pick up 0.5%? Most studios don't release on Linux because it's not even worth the support costs to bring it to Linux with that kind of marketshare. I would love to be wrong, but I don't see these numbers drastically changing.

Third, you're saying that Sony is on the verge of giving Google a fantastic offer... based on what? Sony has ALWAYS been rather insular. They're not INTERESTED in having their games on as many platforms as possible by and large. They want to sell you into the Playstation ecosystem where they get a higher percentage of profits. Why do think they have so many damn exclusives. They've even BOUGHT OUT games originally developer for the PC to convert them into Playstation exclusives. I could be wrong on this point, but I've seen NOTHING about Sony's behavior to suggest they want to expand their games outside their own ecosystem.

Finally, you're saying MS is very close to being upended in the PC gaming market? Again, based on WHAT? They have 96% marketshare on Steam with Linux not even close to supporting the number of titles Windows does, nor at full speed, nor is Linux's gaming marketshare growing, in anything it's FALLING despite having more titles being added (I'm not counting mobile here, that's largely a separate market). How in the HELL does that translate to Microsoft being upended?

Again, just because games CAN be easier than ever to convert and develop for Linux has no bearing on whether or not they WILL. Don't underestimate the power of entrenchment.

I am not arguing that GNU/Linux is about to become a great game platform or that it ever will honestly. Listen I am not expecting that at all. I simply doubt game developers will EVER sing and dance their way into a closed MS store. Many game publishers don't want to have their software out in open system platforms. Sure they all Love DRM but its a massive expensive. They want a store like Steam that does that for them (hopefully does it better) that doesn't take a massive cut of their profits. MS has a ton of issues with their store pitch for game companies... not only do they want a sizable cut of profits they also require companies to recode their software which it shouldn't be surprising the bigs are resisting pretty hard.

I guess your not wrong my choice of words was likely bad with the upended line... hey it was like 3am or something here when I wrote that. What I should have said was MS has been setting themselves up to be kicked out of dodge. They have pushed publishers as you point out into Sonys arms... their pushing of DX versions and then attaching them to specific versions of windows has created a lot of extra work for developers. There should be no doubt as to why they love GNMX over DX... not only is it better they don't have to constantly code multiple paths to support it.

Sony has been dabbling with open sourcing stuff they used to be VERY protective of. If you know much about Sonys and their audio codecs... if someone had told me a few months back that they would open source them for inclusion in Android I would have had a good belly laugh. Well they just did exactly that... now granted it is a smart move no doubt that should help them sell more of their high end phones and perhaps a few licences to headphone makers (who are starting to more and more make high end wireless sets) so ok its a great decision when you look at it. Still Sony could have done stuff like that back in the day when they where selling mini discs and the like... I mean we could go all the way back to the Beta tape and find examples of Sony holding superior tech rather then making it a standard to drive adoption.

So I would surmise that their recent move open sourcing their superior wireless audio codec should imo scare the crap out of MS. Yes what I am stating is my own opinion and not a fact of oh look Sony is now going to open source all their toys. Still if I Was MS I think I would be paying attention. Cause Sony just proved they are willing to play nice with Google, and more important they are willing to turn their superior tech into a standard if its in their best interest. So I stand by my conclusion... Google has an OS that already ticks all the boxes for regular users in Chrome, it could be easily expanded into a Pro Version with a few extra features for power users. If Sony was willing to give Google access to their API (not as open source but as a component of a Google game store), boom Google just becomes Steams biggest problem.

No Sony and Google haven't stated that and no investors are sniffing around that yet. I do believe though if the Scorpion console sells really well and starts cutting into PS4 sales... well Sony and Google could do pretty much exactly what I am talking about in weeks if they wanted, cause they wouldn't have to really do anything new. Sony could built a Viao gaming laptop or even desktop... Both Nvidia and ATI have very good Linux kenrel drivers. Using GNMX instead of DX they would likely take the performance crown for PC gaming, and developers would LOVE a nice locked down store where they could sell their wares and only ever have to support one 3D API.

So yes I agree GNU/ Linux isn't going to win... no its too open all the Linux types know that deep down. No game companies really want open. Google/Linux on the other ya they have been pushing little by little into every PC market at some point I do expect higher end laptops and desktops will be in their sights... heck I even expect at some point they will even go after some server market with some product.

 

[ChadD]

Interesting theories. Sony could also put the screws to Microsoft/Xbox/Scorpio/DX12 any time by officially adopting Vulkan on PS4. Apparently the PS4 is hardware compatible with Vulkan.

I would sure prefer that... at that point it would make adoption for Linux through steam at least much more common.

 

[tetris42]

I am not arguing that GNU/Linux is about to become a great game platform or that it ever will honestly. Listen I am not expecting that at all. I simply doubt game developers will EVER sing and dance their way into a closed MS store. Many game publishers don't want to have their software out in open system platforms. Sure they all Love DRM but its a massive expensive. They want a store like Steam that does that for them (hopefully does it better) that doesn't take a massive cut of their profits. MS has a ton of issues with their store pitch for game companies... not only do they want a sizable cut of profits they also require companies to recode their software which it shouldn't be surprising the bigs are resisting pretty hard.

I guess your not wrong my choice of words was likely bad with the upended line... hey it was like 3am or something here when I wrote that. What I should have said was MS has been setting themselves up to be kicked out of dodge. They have pushed publishers as you point out into Sonys arms... their pushing of DX versions and then attaching them to specific versions of windows has created a lot of extra work for developers. There should be no doubt as to why they love GNMX over DX... not only is it better they don't have to constantly code multiple paths to support it.

Sony has been dabbling with open sourcing stuff they used to be VERY protective of. If you know much about Sonys and their audio codecs... if someone had told me a few months back that they would open source them for inclusion in Android I would have had a good belly laugh. Well they just did exactly that... now granted it is a smart move no doubt that should help them sell more of their high end phones and perhaps a few licences to headphone makers (who are starting to more and more make high end wireless sets) so ok its a great decision when you look at it. Still Sony could have done stuff like that back in the day when they where selling mini discs and the like... I mean we could go all the way back to the Beta tape and find examples of Sony holding superior tech rather then making it a standard to drive adoption.

So I would surmise that their recent move open sourcing their superior wireless audio codec should imo scare the crap out of MS. Yes what I am stating is my own opinion and not a fact of oh look Sony is now going to open source all their toys. Still if I Was MS I think I would be paying attention. Cause Sony just proved they are willing to play nice with Google, and more important they are willing to turn their superior tech into a standard if its in their best interest. So I stand by my conclusion... Google has an OS that already ticks all the boxes for regular users in Chrome, it could be easily expanded into a Pro Version with a few extra features for power users. If Sony was willing to give Google access to their API (not as open source but as a component of a Google game store), boom Google just becomes Steams biggest problem.

No Sony and Google haven't stated that and no investors are sniffing around that yet. I do believe though if the Scorpion console sells really well and starts cutting into PS4 sales... well Sony and Google could do pretty much exactly what I am talking about in weeks if they wanted, cause they wouldn't have to really do anything new. Sony could built a Viao gaming laptop or even desktop... Both Nvidia and ATI have very good Linux kenrel drivers. Using GNMX instead of DX they would likely take the performance crown for PC gaming, and developers would LOVE a nice locked down store where they could sell their wares and only ever have to support one 3D API.

So yes I agree GNU/ Linux isn't going to win... no its too open all the Linux types know that deep down. No game companies really want open. Google/Linux on the other ya they have been pushing little by little into every PC market at some point I do expect higher end laptops and desktops will be in their sights... heck I even expect at some point they will even go after some server market with some product.

I misunderstood, I thought you were arguing against Windows itself being a gaming platform as opposed to the Windows store. You're right, I expect the Windows store to flop around, probably not make a huge impact.

As for Xbox flailing, on the contrary, if that does poorly, developers won't just be sent to Sony, they'll be sent more to the PC also, which Microsoft has the lead in. So if Microsoft Xbox starts failing, then Microsoft Windows will get a boost. Ain't monopolies grand?

As for Sony being open in gaming, I'll believe it when I see it. There are WAY too many paid exclusives they fund in order for me to buy that happening any time soon.

 

[ChadD]

I misunderstood, I thought you were arguing against Windows itself being a gaming platform as opposed to the Windows store. You're right, I expect the Windows store to flop around, probably not make a huge impact.

As for Xbox flailing, on the contrary, if that does poorly, developers won't just be sent to Sony, they'll be sent more to the PC also, which Microsoft has the lead in. So if Microsoft Xbox starts failing, then Microsoft Windows will get a boost. Ain't monopolies grand?

As for Sony being open in gaming, I'll believe it when I see it. There are WAY too many paid exclusives they fund in order for me to buy that happening any time soon.

You may well have a point. The new Xbox is going to be interesting to watch for sure. I have a feeling its not going to be much of a threat to the PS4... so you are likely right not much will likely change. MS will likely sell enough to limp along and just keep hiding sales figures as they have been for a few more years.

I think it only gets interesting if the scorpio does start selling really really well. Sony though ya I know they have a history of holding onto their Tech... I wouldn't have even thought them teaming up with google would ever be something to consider. Until I read about them open sourcing their audio codecs... as I remember how much they protected that stuff back in the days of their mini disc players. I remember ripping CDs to my Mini disc player way way back... and the quality was fantastic, not quite lossless but around 10x better then MP3, and so close to current lossless codecs that had they made it an open standard MP3 would be forgotten tech imo.

Its going to be fun watching everything from the arm chair anyway. lol