JPR: PC GPU Shipments Decreased 15.4% Sequentially from Last Quarter and 38% Year to Year

[erek]

Hmm

"GPUs have been a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter, an average of -6.44%. Last quarter, they guided an average of -0.21%, which was too high.

Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "This quarter's total graphics processor shipments (integrated/embedded and discrete) decreased an astounding -15.3% from the previous quarter, contributing to a decline in the historical 10-year average rate of 6.8%. A total of 64 million units were shipped in the quarter, which was a decrease of -38.5 million units from the same quarter a year ago, indicating the GPU market is negative on a year-to-year basis.

"The sky may be dark right now, but I promise you, it is not failing (except in Northern California, where the rain still hasn't let up, which means we're going to have the most beautiful spring)," Peddie said.

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries."

Source: https://www.techpowerup.com/305279/...ntially-from-last-quarter-and-38-year-to-year

 

[Aurelius]

Hmm

"GPUs have been a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter, an average of -6.44%. Last quarter, they guided an average of -0.21%, which was too high.

Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "This quarter's total graphics processor shipments (integrated/embedded and discrete) decreased an astounding -15.3% from the previous quarter, contributing to a decline in the historical 10-year average rate of 6.8%. A total of 64 million units were shipped in the quarter, which was a decrease of -38.5 million units from the same quarter a year ago, indicating the GPU market is negative on a year-to-year basis.

"The sky may be dark right now, but I promise you, it is not failing (except in Northern California, where the rain still hasn't let up, which means we're going to have the most beautiful spring)," Peddie said.

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries."

Source: https://www.techpowerup.com/305279/...ntially-from-last-quarter-and-38-year-to-year

The year-over-year drop is disproportionate to the overall decline in PC shipments... in other words, there are proportionately fewer PCs shipping with discrete GPUs. Curious if that reflects a shift in the PC market or just something specific to the GPU space.

 

[Lakados]

The year-over-year drop is disproportionate to the overall decline in PC shipments... in other words, there are proportionately fewer PCs shipping with discrete GPUs. Curious if that reflects a shift in the PC market or just something specific to the GPU space.

The decrease in GPU and CPU shipments is proportional to the increase in Smartphone and Tablet shipments when looked over a long period. Mining booms do cause some noticeable spikes though.

 

[Red Falcon]

The year-over-year drop is disproportionate to the overall decline in PC shipments... in other words, there are proportionately fewer PCs shipping with discrete GPUs. Curious if that reflects a shift in the PC market or just something specific to the GPU space.

Totally has nothing to do with companies and individuals lowering their costs by with going with iGPU solutions due to global recessions...

 

[erek]

Totally has nothing to do with companies and individuals lowering their costs by with going with iGPU solutions due to global recessions...

Another interpretation: https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-is-already-matching-amd-for-gaming-graphics-market-share/

 

[LukeTbk]

The year-over-year drop is disproportionate to the overall decline in PC shipments... in other words, there are proportionately fewer PCs shipping with discrete GPUs. Curious if that reflects a shift in the PC market or just something specific to the GPU space.

Maybe he mining GPU sales collapsed and a lot of buyer for upgrade went toward used market GPU ? Does the attach rate is mentionned in the article ?

I could see an rough equivalent attach rate, but floating dgpu sales going down. AMD cpu now having a igpu with them could maybe play some role, but in their price range, not sure.

 

[Armenius]

 

[Red Falcon]

Another interpretation: https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-is-already-matching-amd-for-gaming-graphics-market-share/

View attachment 552805

Competition is good.

 

[Mega6]

AMD and Nvidia still has to release it's 7xxx/4xxx mid-low end GPU cards so the quarterly GPU sales are a bit skewed. Intel basically has no competition on the mid-low end. Last gen cards are scarce and kind of overpriced for what they are now.

 

[DukenukemX]

The year-over-year drop is disproportionate to the overall decline in PC shipments... in other words, there are proportionately fewer PCs shipping with discrete GPUs. Curious if that reflects a shift in the PC market or just something specific to the GPU space.

I really doubt that someone decide to buy an overpriced cell phone or tablet over a GPU or PCs in general. This is one of those cases where correlation does not imply causation. More likely the cost of PCs in general have deterred people from buying them, and also the economy. If cell phones are still selling then that's because they're essential to everyday life, where a RTX 4090 isn't. Especially when you consider that mobile devices are inheritably volatile due to being dropped or exposed to water, which means people are more likely to replace them than a PC and a GPU. Also older PC's can still do whatever task you want it to do, and that includes GPU's. This is just one of those situations where these products have priced themselves out of the market.

 

[Mega6]

Totally has nothing to do with companies and individuals lowering their costs by with going with iGPU solutions due to global recessions...

I think more people are hanging on to their old GPUs when upgrading to a new box.

 

[Aurelius]

I really doubt that someone decide to buy an overpriced cell phone or tablet over a GPU or PCs in general. This is one of those cases where correlation does not imply causation. More likely the cost of PCs in general have deterred people from buying them, and also the economy. If cell phones are still selling then that's because they're essential to everyday life, where a RTX 4090 isn't. Especially when you consider that mobile devices are inheritably volatile due to being dropped or exposed to water, which means people are more likely to replace them than a PC and a GPU. Also older PC's can still do whatever task you want it to do, and that includes GPU's. This is just one of those situations where these products have priced themselves out of the market.

I didn't say as much, that was Lakados!

My hunch is similar... many people need computers, most people don't need dedicated GPUs. Unless you're a gamer, it's one of the first things you can skip.

 

[LukeTbk]

I find a bit strange how much we went to, mining is a big deal to the disparition of mining (both in stopping to buy the new gpu, with offering a lot of used gpu) is not the main reason people expect to cause the drop, but that it would be explained by something else they currently care about.

GPU price went down quite a bit during that 12 months, consumer spending in the US are record high:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ges-january-inflation-accelerates-2023-02-24/

Why talk about a recession or people holding on money to explain this ? I mean maybe, but this is based on what ?

 

[dogDAbone]

The overpriced GPU makers are just gonna have to suck it up, and hold out until the economies settle down some, and people start having some disposable income again, which may be a while....

Perhaps by then, they will have come to their senses & lowered their prices back to pre-pandemic levels...yea right....

But in the meantime, they can use up all of that scalper price money that they hoarded during the pandemic

 

[LukeTbk]

and people start having some disposable income again, which may be a while....

https://www.usatoday.com/story/grap...s-day-spending-nearly-26-billion/11227844002/


https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/pi0123.pdf

Income, disposible income, spending at least in the USA does not seem to be the cause (specially when talking about something that went down in price quite a bit)

 

[Lakados]

I didn't say as much, that was Lakados!

My hunch is similar... many people need computers, most people don't need dedicated GPUs. Unless you're a gamer, it's one of the first things you can skip.

Basically that too, But GPU shipments are down to their lowest in 10 years, x86 CPUs to their lowest in 30. Yet more devices are being used by people day to day than ever.
$300 tablet is a lot more useful than a $300 laptop. Additionally, now that everything is an App lots of people just don't need a PC.
Email, photos, banking, shopping, and yeah gaming too. Mobile gaming is huge, you can't ignore it because it's not for you. Streaming and blah blah blah.
Computers are generally expensive and require maintenance, and if you aren't a computer person they are intimidating.
If I were to take a poll in the schools here right now asking who had a PC be it a desktop or laptop at home, I am 100% certain it would be much less than half, maybe as little as 30%. But they all have a number of tablets or smartphones for sure.

 

[DukenukemX]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/grap...s-day-spending-nearly-26-billion/11227844002/


https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/pi0123.pdf

Income, disposible income, spending at least in the USA does not seem to be the cause (specially when talking about something that went down in price quite a bit)

The article is specifically talking about Americans spending money on Valentines day, and not in general. Which is stupid because who spends a lot on Valentines day? This is basically the Lipstick Effect when the sales of lipstick goes up during economic stress, because lipstick is cheap and won't realistically hurt your economic situation much, but it's a cheap treat. We're talking about Valentine flowers, chocolate, going out to diner, you know not very expensive. A PC though is very expensive and probably something most people can live without.

If you wanna talk about the economic situation for most people, credit card debt exploded, and there's a sharp increase in people late in making payments in their mortgage loans. You don't wanna know about the auto loan crisis. So if there's a reason PC GPU shipments are down, the economy would be one of them. That and for the past 3 years the PC GPU sales are primarily fueled by the crypto boom, which there is no longer any or will ever be a crypto boom.

$300 tablet is a lot more useful than a $300 laptop.

Lets not get crazy. A $300 laptop which is basically a Chromebook at least has a keyboard which is already infinitely better than a tablet with a touchscreen. It irks me the wrong way when I see someone type with one finger on each hand because apparently we don't teach people how to properly type on a keyboard. You could hook up a keyboard to a tablet, but they aren't designed for it. There's also the way tablets handled storage, as in they don't. You could hook up a flash drive with an adapter or put in a bigger SD card or just use the many USB ports available on a laptop. For any real work to get done I wouldn't use a Chromebook because their ability to do anything is also limited by the OS.

Additionally, now that everything is an App lots of people just don't need a PC.

Yea except apps generally suck. Also storage is limited and I don't need to install an app to do what I normally do on a website, which is always asked of me every time unless I pretend that I'm using a PC.

Email, photos, banking, shopping, and yeah gaming too.

Email and photos sure but I would never use a banking app on my mobile device. My uncle had his money stolen from his bank account and it was done through a mobile app, which he never uses because he has an old fashion flip phone. PNC never did explain how they were able to do this, but it gives you an idea how bad the security is in mobile apps. It's the equivalent of letting someone access your PC with all your saved login information, except the mobile device is part of the two factor authentication.

Mobile gaming is huge, you can't ignore it because it's not for you. Streaming and blah blah blah.

Mobile gaming is huge for all the wrong reasons, but the main reason is money as in people who generally game on mobile devices don't have money. It just so happens that these people are the most fiscally irresponsible and also the Lipstick Effect kicks in here too. Nobody with a straight face will ever say that a $300 tablet is better at gaming than a $300 laptop.

Computers are generally expensive and require maintenance, and if you aren't a computer person they are intimidating.

Have you seen the cost of some tablets and phones? They easily go above $1,000. What maintenance? This isn't the 90's when you have to defrag you PC and scan for viruses. The only time you have to do maintenance today is when the storage is full, and most phones and tablets especially $300 ones will fill their storage up fast. Also, also, who's intimidated by a PC? Most people born within the past 40 years knows their way around a Windows or Mac OSX environment. The only people who have a hard time are the elderly who accidentally resized Microsoft Edge and don't know how to move the window back to full screen.

If I were to take a poll in the schools here right now asking who had a PC be it a desktop or laptop at home, I am 100% certain it would be much less than half, maybe as little as 30%. But they all have a number of tablets or smartphones for sure.

Yea that's because their parents today don't want to deal with them, so they give them a cheap tablet. By cheap, I don't mean $300 because they aren't made of money. They give them $60 Amazon Fire tablets, or if they're big spenders this $150 Amazon Fire HD 10. The $300 iPad doesn't even come close, and you can forget about the ones that approach $700. The reality is tablets are mainly entertainment consumption devices, and cheap ones too. You won't be doing any serious work on them, and if you do spend real money on a tablet then you might as well get a laptop. Like this $390 Acer Aspire 5 which sold around 39,000 and is Amazon's best selling laptop. Sure it didn't sell as many as the $60 or $150 Amazon Fire tablets but no other tablet comes close to the sales. I'm actually quite impressed with the specs and it runs Windows 11 and not a Chromebook.

 

[Dayaks]

I find a bit strange how much we went to, mining is a big deal to the disparition of mining (both in stopping to buy the new gpu, with offering a lot of used gpu) is not the main reason people expect to cause the drop, but that it would be explained by something else they currently care about.

GPU price went down quite a bit during that 12 months, consumer spending in the US are record high:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ges-january-inflation-accelerates-2023-02-24/

Why talk about a recession or people holding on money to explain this ? I mean maybe, but this is based on what ?

View attachment 552819View attachment 552820

I like that income and spending chart.

GPUs aren’t expensive in the scheme of things. Problem I see happening, and why I think nVidia pushed RT so hard, is the vast majority of us have GPUs that can run everything just fine. Rasterized has been at diminishing returns for years and is “easy” to run acceptably.

If you have something recently new and RT is a fun to have but not required…. I don’t think many people feel an urgent need to upgrade.

 

[LukeTbk]

If you wanna talk about the economic situation for most people, credit card debt exploded, and there's a sharp increase in people late in making payments in their mortgage loans.

Lot of this is the expected going back to 2019 level and turning change over a recent strange period without presenting how it is now relative to the norm way to present the data

https://libertystreeteconomics.newy.../11/LSE_2022_cc-spending_scally_ch2.png?w=448

A 3.96 delinquency rate is still way below the norm, even if it is a sharp increase over the really unusually low figure of 2022, if an article present only year on year change without putting any effort to contextualise it more and use has a reference a really out of norm starting place, it can get quite misleading.

There a consumer spending statistics that can give some idea if people are cutting spending or not, why would you not look at it ?

So if there's a reason PC GPU shipments are down, the economy would be one of them. That and for the past 3 years the PC GPU sales are primarily fueled by the crypto boom, which there is no longer any or will ever be a crypto boom.

And the fact they have been going down unstop since 2011:

It is not special for dgpu sales to go down yearly, it has been the norm

 

[DukenukemX]

Lot of this is the expected going back to 2019 level and turning change over a recent strange period without presenting how it is now relative to the norm way to present the data

https://libertystreeteconomics.newy.../11/LSE_2022_cc-spending_scally_ch2.png?w=448

View attachment 552890View attachment 552891

A 3.96 delinquency rate is still way below the norm, even if it is a sharp increase over the really unusually low figure of 2022, if an article present only year on year change without putting any effort to contextualise it more and use has a reference a really out of norm starting place, it can get quite misleading.

There a consumer spending statistics that can give some idea if people are cutting spending or not, why would you not look at it ?

Unemployment rate is a useless statistic, especially the way the US government does it. Technically it is back to pre-pandemic levels but that wasn't good either. People who think 2019 was the good times is ignoring how bad the situation was. We really never recovered from 2008.
https://dsnews.com/news/02-21-2023/inflation-will-more-than-double

And the fact they have been going down unstop since 2011:

View attachment 552892

It is not special for dgpu sales to go down yearly, it has been the norm

The norm isn't good. You can't rationalize this. The GTX 1060 was the #1 GPU on Steam since 2016, and only displaced by the GTX 1650. Before it was the GTX 970 that was #1 on Steam, and before that it was the Intel HD Graphics 4000. Even before that it was the Intel HD 3000, and even before that it was the ATI Radeon HD 5770. It seems low end gaming hardware was always the norm, until Nvidia priced their GPU's lower, while offering very little loss in performance compared to the high end. The GTX 970 was just 10% slower than the 980.

I guarantee you if Nvidia were to price their RTX 4060 at $350, it would sell. It would sell so fast that Nvidia would do a 360 and walk away. If AMD were to price their RX 7700 at $300, they would take market share away from Nvidia. They won't because they're publicly traded and reducing prices is going to drop their stock fast. Which unfortunately AMD's and Nvidia's stock is worth far more to them, than selling more GPU's. Low margin's is a risky move to investors. There's a reason why stock buy back was made illegal after 1929. Don't be surprised that Intel and that Chinese PowerVR based GPU starts to sell better at some point than AMD's and Nvidia's cards, simply because they're affordable.

 

[LukeTbk]

Unemployment rate is a useless statistic,

Maybe it show you credit card balance, mortgage delinquency (and the fact that it follow unemployement so much do not seem to say that unemployment is a useless stats) over time, and anyway we can look at actual consuming spending without having to speculate if people are spending or not because of recession or fear of an upcoming one.

You graph show numbers being much better than 2019, with bad expected trend (which could be possible and if they happen will maybe hurt future sales yes)

 

[GoodBoy]

The sky falling again?

Who keeps putting it back up there? It's just going to fall again.

Dogs barking, can't fly without umbrella.

 

[DooKey]

GPUs across the board are now good enough to play most potato games. Many folks just don't see the need to upgrade anymore.

 

[LukeTbk]

and anyway we can look at actual consuming spending without having to speculate if people are spending or not because of recession or fear of an upcoming one.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...ctations-april-inflation-picks-up-2023-05-26/

• Consumer spending increases 0.8% in April

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.co...ing-inflation-readings-put-fed-in-tough-spot/
U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy’s growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month.
The growth picture was further brightened by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing a surprise rebound last month in orders of manufactured non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans.