Jensen Huang: Ampere shortages to last throughout the end of 2020

FrgMstr

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So, does this mean that it's a combination of low GDDR6X supply from Mircon resulting in low nVidia inventory being allocated for the 20GB 3080, 3090, and higher-end Quadro Ampere offerings so that nVidia can push more availability to those much higher priced units which have a much higher profit margin per unit, and manipulate their customers by steering them to these higher priced units?
No, there are no GDDR6X shortages and NVIDIA has already purchased 10s of millions of VRAM modules. I am right now at about 99% assured that we will continue to see low inventories on cards close to 3080 FE MSRP and big inventory releases of cards that are well above that and $900 and $1000 20GB 3080 cards becoming the norm for in stock. I expect to see those inventories hit retail around October 19th/20th.
 

MangoSeed

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I am hearing ZERO back chatter of Samsung 8nm having production issues. At this same time, NVIDIA has made huge GDDR6X purchases, which further pushes the narrative that there are not 8nm production issues.

Maybe the fantastic shipping is to Nvidia and not from them.

Since conspiracy theories are in these days, what if Nvidia is holding back inventory to minimize any price adjustments they need to make in response to Big Navi? But then again none of these theories explain why they didn't just launch later.

I don't buy the positive launch price angle. If the vast majority of cards on shelves are significantly more expensive nobody will care what price was mentioned in reviews. See $999 2080 Ti for example.
 

FrgMstr

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Since conspiracy theories are in these days, what if Nvidia is holding back inventory to minimize any price adjustments they need to make in response to Big Navi? But then again none of these theories explain why they didn't just launch later.
I don't think that is the play.
 

RPGWiZaRD

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No, there are no GDDR6X shortages and NVIDIA has already purchased 10s of millions of VRAM modules. I am right now at about 99% assured that we will continue to see low inventories on cards close to 3080 FE MSRP and big inventory releases of cards that are well above that and $900 and $1000 20GB 3080 cards becoming the norm for in stock. I expect to see those inventories hit retail around October 19th/20th.

Yea this is really the current trend, especially after the mining craze, they have become desperate to come up with new methods to ensure maximal amount profit per card sold and to counter a potential backlash they paint it as the demand is simply so huge eventhough low priced cards (FE cards) are kept purposedly low in supply as they don't want to sell many of those, the prices are just go paint a prettier all so important picture at the launch party. Will have to hand it to the marketing guys from Nvidia, they made the 3000 series look like Nvidia's next big launch but did so by increasing TDP load drastically, if they had kept the TDP according to some previous launches they wouldn't have had such large performance numbers to spin off at. But I do think AMD's Big Navi is probably the reason they decided to go so huge on TDP this time around, it doesn't seem farfetch'd they have something suprisingly good at hands this time around. But Nvidia apart from the obvious mistake about the capacitor issue (even if the 3rd party manufacturers are also at blame for cheaping out), they have done good marketing wise for people to buy into the hype so easily.
 

MangoSeed

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Will have to hand it to the marketing guys from Nvidia, they made the 3000 series look like Nvidia's next big launch but did so by increasing TDP load drastically, if they had kept the TDP according to some previous launches they wouldn't have had such large performance numbers to spin off at. But I do think AMD's Big Navi is probably the reason they decided to go so huge on TDP this time around, it doesn't seem farfetch'd they have something suprisingly good at hands this time around.

I would bet it has far more to do with beating AMD than beating Turing. A 250w $700 3080 would still be much faster than the 2080 and give the marketing guys a lot to talk about. Nobody was expecting or asking for the promised 2x 2080 performance (and 1.7x delivered). We would've happily paid $700 for the usual 1.4x.
 

Aireoth

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Since conspiracy theories are in these days, what if Nvidia is holding back inventory to minimize any price adjustments they need to make in response to Big Navi? But then again none of these theories explain why they didn't just launch later.

That makes near zero sense, if you had the stock now, and launched at what is very competitive pricing, you'd be much better served to release as much inventory as possible to saturate those wanting new GPUs prior to AMD's launch, as the number of people that would sell a product they bought two months earlier to buy the other brand (unless AMD has a generational performance leap over the 3080, highly unlikely) is very minimal.

It makes more sense (the large litmus test for any 'conspiracy') that the margins are too slim on the current models and that beefed up models with larger margins are the real plan, and the low price initial launch was a PR stunt in part to counter the bad PR they got from the 2000 series pricing.

If nothing else, nVidia has good marketing chops, its probably their strongest feature.
 

MangoSeed

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It makes more sense (the large litmus test for any 'conspiracy') that the margins are too slim on the current models and that beefed up models with larger margins are the real plan, and the low price initial launch was a PR stunt in part to counter the bad PR they got from the 2000 series pricing.

That goodwill lasted all of 2 seconds. I certainly wouldn't consider the current situation to be good PR. Who exactly is praising Ampere's pricing right now? Everyone is too busy complaining about lack of availability. If that was their plan they missed the mark by a mile.
 

t1337duder

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I think this was an "intentional shortage", but not in the sense that they have cards and simply aren't giving them up. They just wanted to start selling these cards ASAP regardless how many they had available. More or less this was an extremely rushed launch and an attempt to get the foot in the door before AMD had their launch. AMD decided to not "race" and is going to release their cards with ample supply.
 

FrgMstr

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Yea this is really the current trend, especially after the mining craze, they have become desperate to come up with new methods to ensure maximal amount profit per card
No, this is far from a current trend. NVIDIA margins on consumer GPUs has been ~60% for quite a while now. Nothing new to that.

I would bet it has far more to do with beating AMD than beating Turing.
I think mistakes have been made here for a variety of reasons.
 

RareAir23

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Maybe he is. The quarterly earnings call in mid-November should be really interesting.
Indeed MangoSeed. I wish I could be in the same room somehow to hear Jensen have to tell his board and shareholders that day that a suspected 92-95% of all inventory of the RTX 30 series has been sold to scalpers who are selling card after card for 2X-5X the MSRP and that just about nobody who matters (except for a few choice PC hardware covering YouTubers) can get one let alone easily. Also, I feel I also need to say this. This below is a list of major Hollywood gamers (or who have covered game journalism in the past):

Leonardo DiCaprio (he owned a Falcon Northwest Mach V back in the day. True story)
Joe Manganiello
Wil Wheaton
Felicia Day
Megan Fox
Morgan Webb
Adam Sessler
Leo LaPorte
Samuel L. Jackson
Nathan Fillion
Michelle Rodriguez
Vin Diesel
Henry Cavill
Austin Creed (WWE's Xavier Woods)
Kenny Omega

What do these names have in common? Even with all the connections in the world that could get them an RTX 30 series, the only way they will likely get one before next year is through ebay, StockX or Amazon 3rd party vendors (unless they currently have a recently bought eVGA video card and can do the Step Up Program). Jensen also by the way has to live what I just said down too. Out!
 

DejaWiz

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And now we know one more (potential) reason why retail supply is short.
Company response is in the first reply.

Merely a "whoopsie", or only taking corrective action because they got busted?


https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/j6i8v1/msi_is_scalping_their_own_3080s_on_ebay_links/


[EDIT]
NM...there's a whole thread about it over at the FPN subforum.

https://hardforum.com/threads/msi-subsidiary-caught-selling-marked-up-nvidia-cards-on-ebay.2002157/
 
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Factum

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Undoubtedly the fewest cards in inventory at a launch in at least a decade that was not a literal paper launch. I think there have been less than 10K cards sold in North America to date.

Source?

The only numbers I haven seen have been from DK's shops and their numbers indicate a lot more than 10.000 cards in the EU combined?
 

RazorWind

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Has anyone else noticed that, on Nvidia's website, the picture you click on to get to the Geforce products is still a 20 series card? I wonder if they appreciate the irony...

1602015307046.png


Indeed MangoSeed. I wish I could be in the same room somehow to hear Jensen have to tell his board and shareholders that day that a suspected 92-95% of all inventory of the RTX 30 series has been sold to scalpers who are selling card after card for 2X-5X the MSRP and that just about nobody who matters (except for a few choice PC hardware covering YouTubers) can get one let alone easily. Also, I feel I also need to say this. This below is a list of major Hollywood gamers (or who have covered game journalism in the past):

Leonardo DiCaprio (he owned a Falcon Northwest Mach V back in the day. True story)
Joe Manganiello
Wil Wheaton
Felicia Day
Megan Fox
Morgan Webb
Adam Sessler
Leo LaPorte
Samuel L. Jackson
Nathan Fillion
Michelle Rodriguez
Vin Diesel
Henry Cavill
Austin Creed (WWE's Xavier Woods)
Kenny Omega

What do these names have in common? Even with all the connections in the world that could get them an RTX 30 series, the only way they will likely get one before next year is through ebay, StockX or Amazon 3rd party vendors (unless they currently have a recently bought eVGA video card and can do the Step Up Program). Jensen also by the way has to live what I just said down too. Out!
If JayzTwoCents can just call up nvidia and ask for a 3090, I would think Henry Cavill could probably have his agent call them and do the same thing. Cavill got a ton of traction with that video he made of building a PC in his dining room.

All the Youtubers have piles of these things. It's not like the manufacturers don't have any to send out to the influencers - it's just that that appears to what they're doing with most of the cards that they have, as opposed to selling them.
 

noko

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Well if Nvidia does not want to sell video cards to user then maybe AMD will fill the slot. I would think Nvidia will hope that AMD will not price their cards too low and also not have a large supply of them. Nvidia seems to be more interested in the Cloud space, got rid of their Quadro Line this generation while having a pretty cool new Ampere Workstation card, it still looks like Nvidia wants professionals to shift over to the cloud to process their workloads. The big market share ticket is mobile discrete cards, Nvidia? AMD? If AMD has a more efficient arch, this could be a huge swing for AMD back into mobile.

This is one of the worst launches I've seen with Nvidia, hopefully the 3070 launch will be more inline in what we expect from them.
 

thesmokingman

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I swear they can't just ever do shit the right way. First time in a long time that they bring out a reasonably priced product and they gotta go eff it up!
 

noko

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There is nothing about this that wasn’t planned.
The plan is failing, unless the plan is to weed folks off of home computers and move them to GeForce Now, another cloud service, for their gaming needs.
 

kirbyrj

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The plan is failing, unless the plan is to weed folks off of home computers and move to GeForce Now for their gaming needs.

I don't buy it. The "plan" is to make people think Nvidia is giving consumers more bang for the buck with Ampere and then jacking up the prices with higher memory models to keep their margins.

I swear they can't just ever do shit the right way. First time in a long time that they bring out a reasonably priced product and they gotta go eff it up!

That's because the "reasonably priced product" is an illusion. It's not "eff'd" up accidentally. Why do you think it is easier to get a 3090 even though supply is supposedly more constrained? It should in theory be a harder card to bin for. Nvidia wants to sell those. Nvidia wants to sell you the 20GB 3080's because there is more margin.
 
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noko

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How is it failing? Mr.Jensen said theres unprecedented demand for the new gpu.:)
With unprecedented frustration, waste of endless searches, scams, some software issues and a very insincere part on Nvidia to supply needed volume of cards to their customers. The cards are not flowing at all, drip drip drip. Plus a number of outright, misleading, convoluted if not lies from Nvidia on Ampere (1.9x more efficient, largest jump in performance, changing of what a cuda core means . . .). Even the MSRP is very questionable if AIBs will be able to make them at that price as time goes on.
 

noko

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I don't buy it. The "plan" is to make people think Nvidia is giving consumers more bang for the buck with Ampere and then jacking up the prices with higher memory models to keep their margins.



That's because the "reasonably priced product" is an illusion. It's not "eff'd" up accidentally. Why do you think it is easier to get a 3090 even though supply is supposedly more constrained? It should in theory be a harder card to bin for. Nvidia wants to sell those. Nvidia wants to sell you the 20GB 3080's because there is more margin.
Well if there is no competition that may have worked but consumers are sharper than that and at least many would have called them out. Nvidia facing stiff competition will make Ampere look like a complete failure => Plan super failed :).
 

RPGWiZaRD

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If they don't want my money then it looks like I'll be going all AMD this fall then.

If the AMD cards are reasonably priced and you can actually get your hands on one and I'm only looking for 2080 Ti like performance or better for my upgrade coming from a 1070 Ti but the key is price then would gladly support AMD this time around ontop of a Ryzen 5800X CPU. :)
 

DejaWiz

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Well if there is no competition that may have worked but consumers are sharper than that and at least many would have called them out. Nvidia facing stiff competition will make Ampere look like a complete failure => Plan super failed :).

So far, it's been uncovered that:

1. nVidia has been drip-trickling $700 10GB 3080 supply since launch, despite trusted and reputable industry expert testimonies to suggest that they actually have plenty of them that could be shipped.
2. Radeon RX 6000 official announcement (perhaps also launch) date 28OCT.
3. $500 8GB 3070 delayed until 29OCT (instead of 15OCT).
4. 20GB 3080 with a rumored MSRP of around $900 is supposedly launching sometime between October (now) and the end of 2020.

nVidia is not seeing any competition for their 3080 or 3090 since they launched, and they likely won't have much competition from AMD after Radeon RX 6000 launches since it's rumored to top out somewhere around 2080Ti/3070 performance.

nVidia has poised their portfolio and tactics to dominate the market: create demand by stifling 3080 supply, steer buyers into the more expensive 20GB 3080's and 3090's, but if AMD starts gaining traction with the RX 6000, then nVidia can simply open up the floodgates for $500 3070's and $700 3080's while still feeding the market with those $900 20GB 3080's and $1500 24GB 3090's.
There's also nVidia's mid-cycle refresh that will undoubtedly be coming, so we will probably see the full gamut of Ti/Super variants in 6-12 months - and this should have AMD quite worried, unless AMD is severely sandbagging Navi2's true potential by purposely hindering RX 6000's initial performance, with a huge refresh of their own planned for the future.

The state of GPU availability is probably going to get worse before it gets better, regardless of what AMD can do with Navi2.
 
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kirbyrj

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Well if there is no competition that may have worked but consumers are sharper than that and at least many would have called them out. Nvidia facing stiff competition will make Ampere look like a complete failure => Plan super failed :).

But they don't have competition (yet). We'll see what happens in November. Magically, you'll have stock of $900 cards.
 

exlink

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I see a lot of people quoting a $900 MSRP for the 20GB 3080. Can someone please link me the source of this rumor/leak? I’d be surprised if it was a penny under a grand since GDDR6X is expensive.
 

DejaWiz

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kirbyrj

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Yep, and NV is going to hold everyone at gunpoint until they buy one.

You're missing the point. With artificial limitations of the 10 GB cards the scalpers price of $1,200 plus is going to seem normal and then when there is actual supply of $900 cards people will buy them because they think they are getting a deal when you will never be able to buy the $700 cards.

Put it another way, would you rather a 10 gigabyte 3080 or a 20 gigabyte 3070 at the same price? Personally, I would rather the 3080.
 

exlink

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DejaWiz

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I see that he provided a range of $900-$1000. I’d be more inclined to believe $1000 is more likely. But I guess we’ll see. $1000 might be too much in comparison to Big Navi’s offerings.

It's really going to solely depend on Big Navi's performance, pricing, and supply/availability. It's not a stretch for nVidia to adjust pricing, as they've done numerous times in the past.

If Navi can only top out at 2080Ti/3070 performance, then AMD may have to price it in the $450-550 to compete in the realm of the 3070.
That begs the question: Can AMD *afford* to price their upcoming top dog at that price while still garnering enough profit per unit?
AMD needs to be very careful, because this may end up as a similar scenario to how Radeon VII turned out: overpriced, undersupplied, and outperformed right out of the gate.
 
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