Intel Stock is Up 4.5% After Beating Market Estimates

rgMekanic

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Intel released its Q4 2017 earnings today showing a 20% gain in the Data Center market. Other gains were in the IOT with a 21% gain, and the Programmable Solutions Group being up 35%. The PC-centric Client Computing Group was down 2% Y/Y. Other gains were made by reducing operating costs by 4%.

I've got a feeling that the Q1 2018 report won't look so rosey. But who knows, with the PC segment in a decline right now, perhaps Spectre and Meltdown stuff won't have the effect we're expecting. You can find a link to the full earnings report here. Thanks to cageymaru for the story.

In the fourth quarter, Intel saw strong performance from data-centric businesses, which accounted for 47% of Intel's fourth-quarter revenue, an all-time high. The Data Center Group (DCG), Internet of Things Group (IOTG) and Programmable Solutions Group (PSG) all achieved record quarterly revenue. Intel's Client Computing Group (CCG) shipped a record volume of Intel® Core™ i7 processors, launched the new 8th Gen Intel® Core™ processor with Radeon™ RX Vega M Graphics, and announced an expanding line-up of LTE and 5G multi-mode modems. The Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group (NSG) launched the new Intel® Optane™ SSD DC P4800X Series for the data center.
 

dgz

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I guess I don't understand the market. AMD has no chance
 

WhoMe

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Frankly I gave up trying to understand the stock market long ago, for small fry like me it's mostly gambling with maybe an educated guess here and there.
 

U-238

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It's important to note here that this report is for the time period before the Meltdown/Spectre flaws were revealed. The earnings report everyone will be watching for (which will show how badly they took it due to Meltdown/Spectre) won't come out for another 2-3 months.
 

dgz

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Are AMD's "chances" based on Intel's stock price?

In a way they are. If even the recent developments can't shake the mighty beast for the betterment of their direct competition, then all hope on that front is lost. At least in the x86 market
 

TwistedAegis

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20% gain in in CPU market after posting 20% decrease in performance of existing CPUs in the same market...hmm...
 

Betaboy1983

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In a way they are. If even the recent developments can't shake the mighty beast for the betterment of their direct competition, then all hope on that front is lost. At least in the x86 market

That's what I was thinking.. I figured it would go the other way but...
 

vegeta535

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This is for the last quartet before all this meltdown crap happen. I can see them taking a hit this quarter and the rest of the year even.
 

serious

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There are lots of idiots who will buy more Xeons because of the performance decrease.

My guess:

Lots of AMD were brought due to Spectre/Meltdown, but if this sales number doesn't show on Q4, then its price will tank. It is hard to say whether or not the big 8 started deals with AMD at Q4. They knew about Spectre/Meltdown for 6 months, but that doesn't mean they knew anything about it, and they probably didn't know the performance impact from the patch. Apparently, Microsoft knew and thus started the Ryzen line on Azure. I am surprised.

By the time Q1 ER comes, even though AMD's sales will look great, investors would have completely forgotten about the vulnerability, and thus have limited boost on stock price pre ER Q1. Just like the previous 6 quarters, it will tank post ER. As to Intel, a lot of investors will get burn on post ER Q1.

Nvidia ... +20-50%.
 

auntjemima

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Still though, it's been almost 1/3 of a quarter.

Oh, I completely agree. However based on the initial post for this thread, which revolved around Q4 2017, it has nothing to do with the exploits.

If we were to discuss the current stock price and lack of a drop, then sure, it would be a reasonable assessment.
 
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Gideon

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"The PC-centric Client Computing Group was down 2% Y/Y." That was the effect of Ryzen on Intel, but yeah AMD has a long ways to go to actually hurt Intel, but trust me Intel has noticed them again.
 

heatlesssun

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"The PC-centric Client Computing Group was down 2% Y/Y." That was the effect of Ryzen on Intel, but yeah AMD has a long ways to go to actually hurt Intel, but trust me Intel has noticed them again.

That probably had more to do with the PC market in general. Not saying that AMD had nothing to do with it but there are other factor. A mix of a generally stagnant PC market, there's some debate on how the PC market did last quarter but it's not a robust market plus the pricing effects of crypto currency in the traditional DIY market plus high prices on DDR4 memory. The end 2017 was a lousy time for the PC DIY consumer outside of crypto mining.
 

Gideon

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That probably had more to do with the PC market in general. Not saying that AMD had nothing to do with it but there are other factor. A mix of a generally stagnant PC market, there's some debate on how the PC market did last quarter but it's not a robust market plus the pricing effects of crypto currency in the traditional DIY market plus high prices on DDR4 memory. The end 2017 was a lousy time for the PC DIY consumer outside of crypto mining.

Yeah was not the best time to be building a computer.
 

heatlesssun

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"The PC-centric Client Computing Group was down 2% Y/Y." That was the effect of Ryzen on Intel, but yeah AMD has a long ways to go to actually hurt Intel, but trust me Intel has noticed them again.

Last year was the best year AMD had technically in over a decade so I think you're right about Intel looking over its shoulder. Personally as a DIY PC gamer/workstation and convertible PC guy, I still don't feel AMD, not like the days of the Athlon before Intel's Core series. AMD was crushing it and on the mobile side I only had a couple of convertibles at the time. Threadripper is great for what it is but still not at the IPC that Intel can go overall and there's not a lot in the ultrabook/convertible space coming from AMD.
 

Gideon

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Last year was the best year AMD had technically in over a decade so I think you're right about Intel looking over its shoulder. Personally as a DIY PC gamer/workstation and convertible PC guy, I still don't feel AMD, not like the days of the Athlon before Intel's Core series. AMD was crushing it and on the mobile side I only had a couple of convertibles at the time. Threadripper is great for what it is but still not at the IPC that Intel can go overall and there's not a lot in the ultrabook/convertible space coming from AMD.

No doubt it's not like the Athlon days, also hopefully we can avoid any serious underhanded stuff that went with those days as well. AMD is still behind Intel performance wise but at least the gap is pretty small and people have real choice again on what they want to use. I think this whole Spectre, Meltdown mess might give their Epyc chip a real chance at cracking the server market which will really help AMD get the finances it needs. AMD was in fact so low on funds they had to stagger their releases which obviously was not ideal for taking back market share. Lisa Su has done a great job with the company, when most would flee in terror from that kind of a challenge. It's at least helped to bring a spark back to the do it yourself crowd and hopefully it can remain competitive.
 

mullet

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The general public has no damn idea what is going on. The word will get out but very slowly. AMD will make a come back.
 
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I suspect that the impact from spectre/meltdown is going to be more long term, q1 is more interesting to me.
 

pcgeekesq

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I'm positive it'll drop by more than 5% in first Q 2018

I doubt it. The Specter/Meltdown stuff was already factored into the stock price.
The financial upsides reported today apparently weren't: they "beat the street's estimates" and therefore caused a stock price uptick.

That's why the stock market looks like gambling: to win, you either have to know something the "street" doesn't-- and not be-guilt-of/get-caught-for trading on insider knowledge-- or you have to get lucky.
 

86 5.0L

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I guess I don't understand the market. AMD has no chance

Easy. Everybody is expecting Intel to drop as people panic sell stock.

The problem is people are waiting for the pullback to jump into Intel at a cheaper price So they're holding waiting for others to sell first
 

OrangeKhrush

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20% gain in in CPU market after posting 20% decrease in performance of existing CPUs in the same market...hmm...

It isn't 20% gain in market, it is 20% gain in revenue, they did release coffee lake so it is expected and given it is very expensive that helps post gains over Q3
 

OrangeKhrush

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Last year was the best year AMD had technically in over a decade so I think you're right about Intel looking over its shoulder. Personally as a DIY PC gamer/workstation and convertible PC guy, I still don't feel AMD, not like the days of the Athlon before Intel's Core series. AMD was crushing it and on the mobile side I only had a couple of convertibles at the time. Threadripper is great for what it is but still not at the IPC that Intel can go overall and there's not a lot in the ultrabook/convertible space coming from AMD.

Are you measuring IPC as a clock vs clock or are you measuring IPC on Intels 30% higher clocks on average.

Put into context on CB15 because it is easy to get throughput as a product of IPC

Ryzen on average at 3ghz is 120 points in ST mode which is Haswell level

6700K - 128
7700K - 127
8700K - 127

IPC is rather close given how much Intel spends on R&D, in MT AMD SMT is better, at same clocks the 8700K barely holds onto the 1600 and if running blender max thread stress calculating the w/s the 1700 is 5% more efficient that the 8400 while being 35% faster. The 1950X offers 95% of the 7980X score but consumes half the power the 7980 and 7960 need to do that work load in. IPC isn't AMD's problem, the node doesn't facilitate high clocks and clockspeed is greater than cores for impacting performance.
 

DeathFromBelow

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Intel pays a dividend and the bad news hasn't impacted their earnings yet.

I wonder how these earnings will look after the lawsuits. I get that hardware bugs happen but I imagine Intel has some liability for releasing Coffee Lake with a known, performance/security crippling bug.

Their CEO cashing out all of his Intel stock isn't a good sign, either.
 

AlexisRO

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Are you measuring IPC as a clock vs clock or are you measuring IPC on Intels 30% higher clocks on average.

Put into context on CB15 because it is easy to get throughput as a product of IPC

Ryzen on average at 3ghz is 120 points in ST mode which is Haswell level

6700K - 128
7700K - 127
8700K - 127

IPC is rather close given how much Intel spends on R&D, in MT AMD SMT is better, at same clocks the 8700K barely holds onto the 1600 and if running blender max thread stress calculating the w/s the 1700 is 5% more efficient that the 8400 while being 35% faster. The 1950X offers 95% of the 7980X score but consumes half the power the 7980 and 7960 need to do that work load in. IPC isn't AMD's problem, the node doesn't facilitate high clocks and clockspeed is greater than cores for impacting performance.

While you say that node is the problem for AMD, and to an extent it is, i'll say that timing is the bigger issue for AMD. Had the Zen architecture come up 6-5-4 years ago (after Sandy Bridge architecture, the sooner the better), the landscape in the CPU market would have looked different for home and servers alike. Let's take the server market, do any of you think that an absence of this long of a period bodes well for confidence, when someone looks to purchase / upgrade servers? You'll have someone looking over a spreadsheet and go with the safer choice overall given AMD's track record for the last 10 years. AMD are at the stage of almost "me too" (for a full one they need to be on par everywhere not just in some cases), but for how long? Will we get an Athlon next or will we get a Phenom? Their road map looks good on short term, with increments on all sides of the architecture, we'll just have to see how it pans out because from marketing and slides is a long way to execution. Hopefully there won't be any more bumps like node, marketing or something else.
 

OrangeKhrush

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While you say that node is the problem for AMD, and to an extent it is, i'll say that timing is the bigger issue for AMD. Had the Zen architecture come up 6-5-4 years ago (after Sandy Bridge architecture, the sooner the better), the landscape in the CPU market would have looked different for home and servers alike. Let's take the server market, do any of you think that an absence of this long of a period bodes well for confidence, when someone looks to purchase / upgrade servers? You'll have someone looking over a spreadsheet and go with the safer choice overall given AMD's track record for the last 10 years. AMD are at the stage of almost "me too" (for a full one they need to be on par everywhere not just in some cases), but for how long? Will we get an Athlon next or will we get a Phenom? Their road map looks good on short term, with increments on all sides of the architecture, we'll just have to see how it pans out because from marketing and slides is a long way to execution. Hopefully there won't be any more bumps like node, marketing or something else.

Things like AMD coming back into competition is not uncommon, The San Francisco Giants hadn't seen a world series in 40 years won 3 from 2010 to 2014, The Royals in over 58 years won one and lost in the finals, need not forget the Redsox story, so yeah dominance is not absolute and going forward AMD has strong competition to Intel, while it looks like Intel cannot squeeze anything out the very old architecture. The success of AMD's 2017 is enough to show people are actually believing again.
 

juanrga

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It isn't 20% gain in market, it is 20% gain in revenue, they did release coffee lake so it is expected and given it is very expensive that helps post gains over Q3

Gain in revenue is coming from moar sales: Intel "shipped a record volume of Intel® Core™ i7 processors" as stated in the OP.

But we already knew this before Intel earnigs, with i7-8700k taking #1 in sales in Amazon, Mindfactory,...

 

juanrga

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Are you measuring IPC as a clock vs clock or are you measuring IPC on Intels 30% higher clocks on average.

Put into context on CB15 because it is easy to get throughput as a product of IPC

Ryzen on average at 3ghz is 120 points in ST mode which is Haswell level

6700K - 128
7700K - 127
8700K - 127

IPC is rather close given how much Intel spends on R&D, in MT AMD SMT is better, at same clocks the 8700K barely holds onto the 1600 and if running blender max thread stress calculating the w/s the 1700 is 5% more efficient that the 8400 while being 35% faster. The 1950X offers 95% of the 7980X score but consumes half the power the 7980 and 7960 need to do that work load in. IPC isn't AMD's problem, the node doesn't facilitate high clocks and clockspeed is greater than cores for impacting performance.

The IPC gap is 10% in Cinebench, which is favoring Zen muarch. On other benchmarks the IPC gap is higher than 30%. The average IPC gap is ~15% on windows. This average increases to 30% when we consider linux benches.

IPC is one of AMD problems and the reason why AMD engineers are working in ways to increase the IPC.

The i5-8400 is 11% more efficient than R7-1700 on x264. The TR-1950X is only 2% more efficient than i9-7980XE on x264.

Your claim that "clockspeed is greater than cores for impacting performance" is nonsense. Piledriver could hit near 5GHz, but its performance is much lower than Zen, because the higher IPC on Zen impacted performance much more than the reduction on clocks.
 
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tetris42

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Things like AMD coming back into competition is not uncommon, The San Francisco Giants hadn't seen a world series in 40 years won 3 from 2010 to 2014, The Royals in over 58 years won one and lost in the finals, need not forget the Redsox story, so yeah dominance is not absolute and going forward AMD has strong competition to Intel, while it looks like Intel cannot squeeze anything out the very old architecture. The success of AMD's 2017 is enough to show people are actually believing again.
Sports analogies don't mean much since that's dependent on the quality of the team, not consumer marketshare. In other words, a sports team doesn't have to convince their fans they're the best, they just have to be the best. Consumer products don't always work that way.

As for them coming back, they're certainly in a better position to do that than they have in the past decade or so, but let's not forget Athlon. It was a faster architecture that left Intel flat-fooded for multiple generations. But, because Intel worked out deals with big vendors, engaged in predatory business practices and broke many laws globally, they came out on top and AMD didn't gain any marketshare, despite having the better product. My guess is Intel can't pull the same tricks again, but anything can happen.
 
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