I think it's more like playing poker - you think you have the skill to beat the house, even though you likely do not. There's no skill in buying a lottery ticket.it's like buying lottery tickets. Yeah somebody might win 500 million bucks, but the rest of those buyers were actually just throwing money away. It's basically gambling.
Nothing right now.Taking financial advise from random strangers on [H], what stock do you guys recommend buying right now?
Agreed on the Q2 results, most people I know are just buying stocks right now like nothing happened. Hopefully you're right about the market diving again, I would love to put some of this profit I've been making from day trades on investments because I won't be day trading forever when this WFH thing lifts.Nothing right now.
Stocks are up from the depths they sunk to back in March. A couple months ago, The Rona was not as well understood and there was much more uncertainty about how bad it was going to get. The situation seems to have stabilized but there are still thousands of Americans dying daily due to this awful virus. News you see of people partying at Lake of the Ozarks on Memorial Day Weekend is not an accurate reflection of most Americans' sentiments. Folks still are not eating out, they still are not traveling, they're still not buying cars and making other big purchases.
I think the current highs are temporary and when the Q2 earnings are reported in early/mid July, stocks will mostly tank again. Q2 is going to be BAD. Unemployment will recover to an extent but it will still be BAD. I know 'everyone knows that so it's already accounted for in current valuations,' - except I don't think folks know how bad Q2 really is, and the market likes to react strongly to strongly negative data. There will be many bargains to buy up in early/mid July. I bought into a lot of travel stocks back in March and plan to buy more (from different companies) if I turn out to be correct and the market dives again in July. Those to me are going to be medium-term investments - I'll want a new car in about three years.
I think Ray Dalio explains this best. The stock market doesn't go up or down in the short run because of the economy, it goes up and down based on availability of credit/money. Since the US money supply went up 30% after the crash, the stock market is up almost the exact same percentage (28-29%). The average increase of money supply over the last 10 years is about 12%, the stock market goes up about 11% a year. Over the long run (many decades) it follows the earnings of businesses and the asset inflation from liquidity injections eventually have to be sorted by corrections (i.e. 2000 and 2008). Buying the total market means you capture the entirety of money flows, i.e. it's a true inflation hedge, whereas stock picking is risky in that it's likely to miss out on the majority of the gains from money flows.It's way easier to just dump it in a top 100 index fund and call it a day.
If a highly paid mutual fund manager of an aggressive growth fund still 99% of the time under-performs a top 100 index fund; If you think you could do better, good luck. Looking at these more highly managed funds and seeing across the board they, at best, perform on-par with an index, is all you need to know.
Why? Nvidia is expanding in a smart way. Their acquisition of Melanox or whatever it's called just means they're going to become bigger.Hard to know when to buy these tech companies, but I personally wouldn't buy nVidia right now.
I have no special insight other than I think the whole market is due for a correction due to covid related interruptions. I don’t see how its only -10% off highs right now. When if it pulls back, I don’t think tech stocks are immune. I’d rather have index or mutual funds in general as well — but thats only because I’ve been burnt hard on individual stocks too many times. I’d prefer picking up health sector right now, or long term picks to feel comfortable weathering the next correction and its difficult to have much confidence in an individial tech company more than a couple product generations out. In an uncertain market nvidia just seems riskier to me. I’m no expert investor however.Why? Nvidia is expanding in a smart way. Their acquisition of Melanox or whatever it's called just means they're going to become bigger.
It won't surprise me if they are the driving force behind next-gen AI.
But then again, I could be wrong, since no one can predict the future.
Diversity is key, and mutual funds or ETFs are a good way to do that. Much like you, I had been burned before, but that's also how you learn. I do a lot of research now and retain about 40% of my picks as individual stocks, typically dividend payers as to always generate reinvestment cash.I have no special insight other than I think the whole market is due for a correction due to covid related interruptions. I don’t see how its only -10% off highs right now. When if it pulls back, I don’t think tech stocks are immune. I’d rather have index or mutual funds in general as well — but thats only because I’ve been burnt hard on individual stocks too many times. I’d prefer picking up health sector right now, or long term picks to feel comfortable weathering the next correction and its difficult to have much confidence in an individial tech company more than a couple product generations out. In an uncertain market nvidia just seems riskier to me. I’m no longer expert investor however.
The thing with fund of funds is the expense ratio is a bit higher just to avoid personally rebalancing. You could own the total stock market and total bond market funds and just pay a 0.035 avg expense ratio and balance the fund ratios yourself. Also I generally avoid mutual funds in taxable accounts as they are less tax efficient than ETFs. Obviously in an IRA it doesn't matter either way.If you want my opinion, don't bother with individual stocks. You might get lucky, but the odds are against you.
I did a lot of research and ended up just going with a good index fund. VBIAX was the best I found.
Of course, there was a drop recently because of the pandemic, but the historical returns are great.
it’s completely right, my overwhelming focus has always been on a set of ETF’s that I rebalance if it gets overweight. >14% of our gross household income does that. Even aside from anything else, our retirement is almost certainly golden.This is why Buffet says he bets he can beat virtually any active investors just by buying the S&P index. Which is true.
+1I think the current highs are temporary.
Looks like I was off by about a month. I'm not sure whether there will be another small rally between now and mid July that'd make jumping in again briefly worth the effort and fees, so I'm sitting on the cash for now. Hold onto your butts...if we keep getting these Rona Resurgences, market could be bumpy the rest of the calendar year.when the Q2 earnings are reported in early/mid July, stocks will mostly tank again