Has Windows 10 Overtaken XP Already?

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Depending on the method used to determine which OS people are using, Windows 10 may or may not be overtaking Windows XP already.

Statcounter's numbers show Windows 10 growing from zero to 5.38 percent in August, via 7.64 percent in September and 9 percent in October to 10.82 percent now. Over the same period, XP declined from 10 percent in July to 8.21 percent now. XP's market share has shrunk to the point where it is almost the same as all versions of Mac OS X combined (8.46 percent).
 
Statcounter is fairly worthless for measuring OS share. It uses raw page views, not unique visitors, as its primary data collection methodology.

NetMarketShare does track unique visitors and likely has a much better estimation of OS share: https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=10&qpcustomd=0

top 10 on netmarketshare released a few days ago:
Code: 
Windows 7	55.71%
Windows XP	11.68%
Windows 8.1	10.68%
Windows 10	7.94%
Mac OS X 10.10	3.45%
Windows 8	2.54%
Mac OS X 10.11	2.18%
Windows Vista	1.74%
Linux 		1.57%
Mac OS X 10.9	1.10%
 
That is no real surprise. To late to those who wanted to get in before this "shill" :p :D
 
I wouldn't mind seeing XP go away. The fact that it's like being measured by stuff that counts page views means that people still have it on the Internet and that's semi-scary. :eek:
 
CreepyUncleGoogle said:
I wouldn't mind seeing XP go away. The fact that it's like being measured by stuff that counts page views means that people still have it on the Internet and that's semi-scary. :eek:
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How so? People always parrot how "insecure" XP supposedly is, yet you never hear about the mythical "massive botnet attacks" utilizing zombie XP machines.

That's not to say that people on XP would probably be better off with Windows 7 if their machine can handle it, but XP shaming is a lot of boogeyman bullshit.
 
DPI said:
How so? People always parrot how "insecure" XP supposedly is, yet you never hear about the mythical "massive botnet attacks" utilizing zombie XP machines.

That's not to say that people on XP would probably be better off with Windows 7 if their machine can handle it, but XP shaming is a lot of boogeyman bullshit.
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No it's quite accurate. Windows XP (Pre SP3) was highly vulnerable to many attacks which would allow the machine to be overtaken and zombified.

There's a reason why MS turned on the firewall automatically with their service packs in order to prevent this from happening.

Now a days most XP machines are SP3 which makes these attack vector's moot.

I know working at an AV firm that we had all our honeypot machines on windows xp for the simple reason that most malware writers targeted Windows and XP if they could.
 
DPI said:
How so? People always parrot how "insecure" XP supposedly is, yet you never hear about the mythical "massive botnet attacks" utilizing zombie XP machines.

That's not to say that people on XP would probably be better off with Windows 7 if their machine can handle it, but XP shaming is a lot of boogeyman bullshit.
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I was thinking more about how old XP is and not about security. It came out in forever ago and hasn't been sold in almost as much forever. The computers running it have to be like dinosaurs and stuff because there's no driver support for new hardware on them. I guess maybe netbooks...a few of them had XP for while after Vista came out, but still...it's just OLD. Like older than either of us OLD.
 
I'd say a lot of those XP installs were on older Dell and HP desktops and people are finally moving on to cheap laptops and tablets. The average consumer doesn't need a desktop for email, web surfing and video streaming.
 
I'd say a lot of those XP installs are in Asia because they are in Asia. :p Usage of XP in the US dipped below 5% over a year ago. http://www.kaspersky.com/about/news...l-Run-Windows-XP-Kaspersky-Lab-Statistics-Say

The study also looked at individual countries to assess the proportion of Windows XP users among all users of Kaspersky Lab's Windows-based products in each country. Vietnam was the leader, with 38.79% of users still preferring to work under Windows XP. Next came China with 27.35%, India with 26.88%, and Algeria with nearly a quarter (24.25%) of users still remaining loyal to the legendary operating system. Roughly one in five computers protected by a Kaspersky Lab product still runs under Windows XP in Italy (20.31%) and Spain (19.26%). A smaller proportion of users – 4.52% continues to use Windows XP in the USA.
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Steve said:
Depending on the method used to determine which OS people are using, Windows 10 may or may not be overtaking Windows XP already.

Statcounter's numbers show Windows 10 growing from zero to 5.38 percent in August, via 7.64 percent in September and 9 percent in October to 10.82 percent now. Over the same period, XP declined from 10 percent in July to 8.21 percent now. XP's market share has shrunk to the point where it is almost the same as all versions of Mac OS X combined (8.46 percent).
Click to expand...

They really need to break it out by Home, Pro and Enterprise. I'm not sure how heavily skewed Pro is to businesses, but I assume most are businesses, but more importantly, Home licenses are mostly consumer and Enterprise is almost all businesses.

That breakout would give us a better idea of adoption, because no matter how quickly businesses move to 10, it'll be slower than consumers running 7 or 8.
 
On home PC certainly XP is not very dominant OS. But if you take and analyze data from industry then XP is still very potent player. I know that many e.g. hospitals still running intranet of XP and there are no plans to switch. I don't blame them.
 
CreepyUncleGoogle said:
I was thinking more about how old XP is and not about security. It came out in forever ago and hasn't been sold in almost as much forever. The computers running it have to be like dinosaurs and stuff because there's no driver support for new hardware on them. .
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You can still find XP installation discs at computer fairs and flea markets. It's not by any means dead. Besides, many users don't need any new hardware. They'll use it for email, web surfing, maybe a little word processing, that's it. Consider; how many people drive cars that are 14+ years old? Well, even more use computers with XP because they don't have to replace worn out parts. Any video card that will render 1080 videos makes their computer up to date as far as they're concerned. And those cards were out long ago, so drivers aren't an issue. Until, of course, their machine fills up with junk files and they think they need a new one. Then if they're lucky, the have a techy friend or relative willing to reformat their machine and make it act new again. And if we ever do that.....they will expect us to do it again. And again...........
 
It's fairly easy to take the top spot when you give the OS away for free as a painless upgrade.
 
pxc said:
Statcounter is fairly worthless for measuring OS share. It uses raw page views, not unique visitors, as its primary data collection methodology.

NetMarketShare does track unique visitors and likely has a much better estimation of OS share: https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share.aspx?qprid=10&qpcustomd=0

top 10 on netmarketshare released a few days ago:
Code: 
Windows 7	55.71%
Windows XP	11.68%
Windows 8.1	10.68%
Windows 10	7.94%
Mac OS X 10.10	3.45%
Windows 8	2.54%
Mac OS X 10.11	2.18%
Windows Vista	1.74%
Linux 		1.57%
Mac OS X 10.9	1.10%
Click to expand...

Those numbers must make ms burn pretty hard. Free OS can't crack 8% market share. HAHA.
 
canna said:
Those numbers must make ms burn pretty hard. Free OS can't crack 8% market share. HAHA.
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Yup, after the geeks are done pushing the upgrade button, the rest of the world is going to ignore it. Just like they ignore every optional update sent to their computer :D

Windows 10 adoption has also slammed into a wall with the Steam geeks as welll, right about the 30% I guesstimated it would:

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/directx/

WINDOWS VERSION
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT

Windows 10 64 bit
1.10%
3.35%
17.11%
25.06%
27.92%
+2.86%
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Microsoft's dream of everyone standardizing on one OS will only happen if they force the upgrade. Most of my Steam playing friends have no idea what an operating system is, and don't give a shit.
 
defaultluser said:
Windows 10 adoption has also slammed into a wall with the Steam geeks as welll, right about the 30% I guesstimated it would:

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/directx/
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Windows 10 jumped almost 15 points on Steam in its first full month after release. Clearly that was unsustainable. It still grew at a very healthy 2.5% in October. It looks like is should become the #1 OS on Steam sometime in Q2 2016.

defaultluser said:
Microsoft's dream of everyone standardizing on one OS will only happen if they force the upgrade. Most of my Steam playing friends have no idea what an operating system is, and don't give a shit.
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Windows users historically don't upgrade so there's truth in what you're saying. But Windows 10 is probably going to have a long lifespan beyond the normal three year Windows upgrade cycle. Assuming that the free upgrade person is only a tear and Microsoft doesn't extend it simply becomes a matter of time as PC hardware ages out.
 
heatlesssun said:
Windows 10 jumped almost 15 points on Steam in its first full month after release. Clearly that was unsustainable. It still grew at a very healthy 2.5% in October. It looks like is should become the #1 OS on Steam sometime in Q2 2016.



Windows users historically don't upgrade so there's truth in what you're saying. But Windows 10 is probably going to have a long lifespan beyond the normal three year Windows upgrade cycle. Assuming that the free upgrade person is only a tear and Microsoft doesn't extend it simply becomes a matter of time as PC hardware ages out.
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Heatless, you're extrapolating a single month out for the rest of time, and you know that's not right. A number that has been falling in absolute percentages for two months straight shows no signs of stabilizing. You're smarter than that.

The only reason I'm so cutting in my post is there are tons of idiot dreamers on this forum who won't shut up about how DX12 is going to change the world, and the AAA DX12 games will be released in Christmas 2016. Just you wait!

I don't hate on Windows 10, I've upgraded already. I like it. I just don't like the idiots who sing it's praises far too loudly :D
 
I disagree that Windows 10 is doing poorly so far. It's only been out for a couple of months and consumer adoption looks fairly decent so far. The pace growth continues to slow, and depending whether it's adopted by business or not, it could be limited to Windows 8.x-like numbers in the medium term.

One thing I always like pointing out in these threads is that Windows 10 growth, both on estimated based on web traffic and Steam, is mostly coming out of Windows 8.x users fleeing that piece of crap OS. :D
 
MajorDomo said:
It's fairly easy to take the top spot when you give the OS away for free as a painless upgrade.
Click to expand...

My great grandmother used to tell, that "free" usually ends up being more costly, you just pay for it differently.
 
heatlesssun said:
8% in 95 days? Haha indeed.
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Let's be honest, without it being free, there would be little reason for anyone to upgrade. Apart from the "telemetry" bullshit what does it bring to the table, really?
 
defaultluser said:
Heatless, you're extrapolating a single month out for the rest of time, and you know that's not right. A number that has been falling in absolute percentages for two months straight shows no signs of stabilizing. You're smarter than that.
Click to expand...

I'm not extrapolating anything. The first month of 10's growth was clearly unsustainable. Even 2.5% is long term. Windows 10 will grow though over the coming months and years as 7 and 8.x age out is all that I am saying.

defaultluser said:
The only reason I'm so cutting in my post is there are tons of idiot dreamers on this forum who won't shut up about how DX12 is going to change the world, and the AAA DX12 games will be released in Christmas 2016. Just you wait!
Click to expand...

I've said very little about DX 12 or any of these newer low level APIs because they are so new and it's hard to see where it's all going. However DX 12 is coming to Xbox One so it's pretty likely there's going to be a decent number of DX 12 titles coming out in time. What DX 12 will actually bring to the table, I have no idea. But I'm guessing the results will be mixed.

That said there are other technical reasons for using 10, Speed Shift in Skylake, better memory management it would appear like the issue with Batman Arkham Knight where for some reason it doesn't leak in 10 with 12 GB or more and it's going to see updates for a while to come that should enhance performance and battery life for portable device.

defaultluser said:
I don't hate on Windows 10, I've upgraded already. I like it. I just don't like the idiots who sing it's praises far too loudly :D
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Fair enough. To some folks though pointing out any advantage of Windows 10 would be singing its praises too loudly. From a technical standpoint, unless one is just totally at odds with any telemetry, I don't see any reason in not using Windows 10 on the latest and greatest hardware just from a support standpoint. Older hardware might benefit in some cases as some have reported. In other cases 10 seems to have issues. Threshold 2 is coming next week and that will need to be evaluated to see if what it resolves and what new issues it brings.

In any case, we're only 100 days into Windows 10 and it's getting ready to get a big update and looks to be following a summer/fall update cycle. And a lot of people don't like this because it is at the heart of forcing the updates. You can't constantly and quickly update something while having people block the updates. It's a state of flux that's certainly unfamiliar territory for Windows.
 
M76 said:
Let's be honest, without it being free, there would be little reason for anyone to upgrade. Apart from the "telemetry" bullshit what does it bring to the table, really?
Click to expand...

Of course the free upgrade is a big part of it. With new PC sales in bad downward spiral, the sale of new PCs, which historically has been how much copies of Windows get distributed. wouldn't be nearly enough to get Windows 10 adoption rate up.

As for what it brings to the table, quite a bit for certain hardware. 10 is much better with multiple monitors and touch devices over 7. I don't have any numbers to prove it as I've not seen any but it's probably better on battery than 7 overall, especially if one uses store apps.

After 3 months of using on all kinds of hardware, it's proven to work well for me. Not without it's problems. I do miss Windows Media Center for encrypted cable channels,there's a hack going around that I need to try out.

So I get that some people have issues with the data collection. I use this stuff and some of is just cool. Voice web search, Windows Hello, those are very useful and practical things.
 
defaultluser said:
Yup, after the geeks are done pushing the upgrade button, the rest of the world is going to ignore it. Just like they ignore every optional update sent to their computer :D

Windows 10 adoption has also slammed into a wall with the Steam geeks as welll, right about the 30% I guesstimated it would:

http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/directx/



Microsoft's dream of everyone standardizing on one OS will only happen if they force the upgrade. Most of my Steam playing friends have no idea what an operating system is, and don't give a shit.
Click to expand...

Stalled? In October 10 had 25% market share. 7's marketshare after 3 full months on sale was 23%. 10 is tracking slightly ahead of 10 and will likely be at roughly 35% by the end of the month.
 
nilepez said:
Stalled? In October 10 had 25% market share. 7's marketshare after 3 full months on sale was 23%. 10 is tracking slightly ahead of 10 and will likely be at roughly 35% by the end of the month.
Click to expand...
Comparing apples and bananas?

According to sites tracking Steam's HW survey, like this one, the January 2010* data had:
Windows 7 64-bit 19.5%
Windows 7 32-bit 9.03%
which is 28.53%

According to NetMarketShare, Windows 7 had 7.57% share in January 2010.

Market share by either measure doesn't seem dramatically different.

* Windows 10 officially went on sale October 22, 2009. It went gold on July 22, but market share was fairly small before October.
 
pxc said:
According to sites tracking Steam's HW survey, like this one, the January 2010* data had:
Windows 7 64-bit 19.5%
Windows 7 32-bit 9.03%
which is 28.53%
Click to expand...

Isn't the total Steam population today much bigger today than in January 2010? The article you quote had Steam at 25 million users. Wikipedia lists the current user base at 125 million users. The October Steam Hardware Survey puts Windows 10 64 and 32 bit total as 27.42% So while the Windows 7 update 3 months into it's life is slightly higher in terms of percentages, there's little doubt that current percentages represent a much higher absolute number compared to nearly six years ago.
 
pxc said:
Comparing apples and bananas?

According to sites tracking Steam's HW survey, like this one, the January 2010* data had:
Windows 7 64-bit 19.5%
Windows 7 32-bit 9.03%
which is 28.53%

According to NetMarketShare, Windows 7 had 7.57% share in January 2010.

Market share by either measure doesn't seem dramatically different.

* Windows 10 officially went on sale October 22, 2009. It went gold on July 22, but market share was fairly small before October.
Click to expand...

Accidentally used the January release/december numbers. My bad. So it's 28.5% for 7 and 27.5 for 10. Guess we'll see what happens in the next 2 months.

Still wish net marketshare would break it out by version (i.e. home, pro etc) Biggest change I see on Steam is that very few use x32 (which is good).
 
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