Graphics Card Sales to Face Difficulties in 2H18

mkrohn

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...With some miners having already begun selling their second-hand graphics cards in the PC DIY channels, demand for new cards is expected to be weakened further.....
Good. This news makes me smile. I hope NVIDIA takes a monumental and unrelenting beating on their old cards and then nobody buys their new ones due to overpricing.
don't smile too hard. Many are simply off/out for the hottest months and will be heating their homes again this winter. I cleared some of my cards out when they were still selling for insane prices knowing the summer months would suck for mining. I now have 5k+ sitting here in cash waiting for the next gen cards and if my coin holdings go up enough I'll have a lot more in profits ready to reinvest. I have profited a nice amount on coins and like many others are ready and waiting.
 

DukenukemX

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You know the market is bad when a company is holding onto their product to avoid lowering prices. Cause ya know, a 2 year old Pascal design is still totally worth MSRP, especially after the mining fiasco. Goes to show that Nvidia wasn't planning on the mining market going bust.
 

Dayaks

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What happends if the GPU's fan fails. How much would that replacement cost you? The fans are some super specific parts and didnt HardOCP already post, everyone has changed their warranties so they wont have to pay to fix miners cards for free for you.

Also, they've already talked it over, Nvidia sells 11xx at way high prices, OEMs stay above MSRP and crypto folks sell at MSRP from two yeards ago. No one loses a dime. Everyone profits. It's already been decided. Get with the times...

A failed fan? Maybe $0.08 to ziptie one my bajillion case fans to it. ;)
 
D

Deleted member 93354

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You realize AMD cards are used for mining don't you? Weakness in crypto hurts both of them.

While I agree with you, it will bring prices down faster to a sustainable price for us and bring innovation at a faster pace.

This soon to be ended generation will fall quickly from grace as there will be an over supply. Miners will grab all the new high performance next-gen stock just like they did with this generation. You'll see a glut of parts just like you did with the 1050's downward. Look for bargains starting in October as businesses try to clean up their books for the stock market and sell out for the holiday season.
 
D

Deleted member 93354

Guest
Sure, but as far as I'm concerned, thats pure speculation, nobody knows if there is an over supply, it could all be wishful thinking by the same types that expect 100$ GTX 1070s. Besides what can a 1170 do better than a 1070, what 20% percent? Doesn''t seem worth waiting an undisclosed amount of time for.

Over supply seems to be on lower end. No one wants to buy 1050's and lower. How do I know? Look at the price spread. What's even more desperate is they are cutting corners on memory in an effort to save margin and sell it at a lower price.
 

Krenum

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They can keep their prices high and I'll keep my money.

Yep. Maybe they wouldn't have "difficulties" if they'd listen to the masses and get their shit together both Nvidia & AMD. But,Whatever, at this point I'm so disenfranchised with the whole mess I'm not upgrading for a very long time. Building computers used to be fun, when it was affordable, now it seems even more so than ever to be an elitist hobby.
 
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blandead

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No, Every card on Newegg is over $700.

https://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.aspx?Description=GeForce GTX 1080 Ti&Submit=ENE

Last time I checked, that was MSRP from launch 18 months ago. The Reference Edition launched at $700, but the 3rd-party cards were closer to $650.

MSRPS as-of 1080 Ti launch:


GTX 1070 $350
GTX 1080
$500
GTX 1080 Ti
$700
Titan XP $1200


https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/NVIDIA/GeForce_GTX_1080_Ti/

These have a long way to fucking fall to match the revised MSRP from March 2017.

The only cards that are back down to MSRP are the 1070 Ti. That's of little help to the majority of buyers who would rather spend under $350.

Got my 1070 oc2 for 260 after it first came out. No way now, honestly it's good enough. Just buy leftover cards or buy brand new and mine it until you break even. It's the only way.

Watch nvidia's new cards will give 50% mining performance jump and only 20% for games. Then miners will jump all over that. Hardcore gamers will jump on that and we will be screwed for 4 generations of greed
 
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DPI

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Goes to show that Nvidia wasn't planning on the mining market going bust.

Actually they were. That was the whole reason the CEO wouldn't even acknowledge crypto as an official business interest - to do so would have been speculative and isn't their business model. And that was why they did not increase production in early January, you know back when all the gamers were filling these threads with tears "why don't they increase production, they should just increass produkshun".
 
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Chupachup

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You should learn to read, none of those are an official statement by Nvidia.
You don't need a note from nVidia crapping on themselves to prove the point, if the vendors are reporting that they are returning unused and unsellable quantities to the manufacturer (read: nVidia). Add to that, retailers explanations for keeping two-year old products at their origin MSRP (or higher) in order to save themselves from losses and nVidia has a struggle to move both old and new product going forward.

That statement you so desperately hang your point on will never be heard from them in an open forum and in the clear. They're stupid with power. But, not THAT stupid.

The August 16th, Q2-2018, quarterly financial call by nVidia will be full of codewords to set the tone moving into the second half of the year. If they (and retailers) can't move existing inventory and actually move forward with pricing new models higher simply to differentiate the lines, the forecast will be for lower revenues moving through Q3 with hopes that Q4 will see an uptick in unit sales as retailers finally buckle and lower prices on older stock to make room for the new heading into the Christmas shopping season. If nVidia mentions anything more drastic than lower revenues, it will be a forecasted hit to cash on hand due to unspecified restructuring, i.e, writing off the returned and unsold product they have. They will never admit to an overstock issue- EVER.

Not that you could care less.
 
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A failed fan? Maybe $0.08 to ziptie one my bajillion case fans to it. ;)

Exactly what I did with my (not second hand) Strix 390 when a fan failed and I broke the other trying to find out which fan sounded weird. One out of three is not great so I just strapped two 120 fans to the heatsink instead. Much quieter and cooler. Wish I'd bust it earlier!
 

seanreisk

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Graphic card sales to face difficulties in second half of 2018? I admit I'm feeling a little bit, "Well, boohoo Nancy..." but in spite of nVidia being the evil empire, there's actually some interesting analysis behind nVidia's production decisions.

During the 2017 holidays, when everyone from customers to retailers to board partners were asking for more high-end chips, nVidia did not max out production. Why? Because nVidia isn't the big benefactor from the mining rush. nVidia made good money, sure, but the card manufacturers and retailers were the big benefactors, and when the mining craze ended it would always be nVidia taking the biggest hit.

(NOTE: The following are made up figures to be used as an example, not as real statistics) Consider this: During a normal product cycle, maybe 30% of the high-end graphics cards are re-sold on the used hardware market. Since most people buy their graphics cards and use them until they think they need a new one, they hold on to their cards for several years, by which time the card is not worth the trouble of reselling. This is not true of the crypto mining market, though, where the miners consider their high-end cards as a productivity tool that need to return the highest profit for their investment. That means that at some point, reselling the card while it has value is preferable to holding on to the card as it becomes more inefficient. During the height of the mining frenzy an abundance of high-end cards moved from normal customers to miners, enough that it could change the formula from 30% of the high-end cards being resold to as high as 50% of the high-end cards being resold. nVidia doesn't make any money on the resale market, and those resales kill the market at the end of a product cycle. With a glut of cards entering the system, if the miners don't purchase heavy on the new product line nVidia is facing a double sales slump since the demand for replacement cards was already satisfied by the used hardware market.

No matter how well it performs, the 11XX series cards could be the lowest selling GeForce series for the last decade.

Which makes me really, really wonder why all of the graphics card manufacturers are trying to hold prices so high. They're all hoping that crypto will hit another big uptick, but if it doesn't happen there's going to be a really bad cycle in the market.
 
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Irockzz

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I will just stick with my 1080ti even my 980ti would still hold me over for 1440p
 

Kinestron

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Good catch, but that's still the sale price from loooong time ago and also was available directly on Newegg. Not some super duper cheat code. ;)

Anyway, it needs to be $50 to $100 or more below MSRP to even be worth it. Like a $200 GTX 1060 6GB would be something to consider. Or a $300 regular GTX 1070.

They were fine selling the cards at $230 on sale a long time ago before crypto boom.


Sorry there is just no way you're going to sell me last years model at this years prices. (Even if the new model has had a price bump). You are still buying older hardware that wont have some feature you might want in 3 years(when your card will be 5 years old).
Before the mining craze, I got my RX 470 4GB for about $120(coupon + ebates). Just checked at Newegg and the 570s(basically a slightly overclocked 470) are running at $240 or higher. We are not even talking about 8GB versions at the lower end but still offering the 4GB version for $240. Just looked up initial MSRP of a 570 and it was supposed to be $169. So yeah, Dougie is just not getting it. Prices are still stupid.
 

mope54

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Which makes me really, really wonder why all of the graphics card manufacturers are trying to hold prices so high. They're all hoping that crypto will hit another big uptick, but if it doesn't happen there's going to be a really bad cycle in the market.
They know there is pent-up demand and they're trying to cash in on the last of the holdouts. The next gen cards are going to drop without much fanfare. nVidia's official stance on this is don't bother waiting for a new card, which is strange from a tech company regarding a product line that is two years old.

There was a simple solution that would have benefitted everyone if the companies involved weren't trying to gouge: they could have enforced product purchasing limits.

Sure, the retailers were to blame for the gouging, but nVidia could have enforced downstream compliance if they cared about gamers getting cards in their hands during the initial product line's lifespan. This crunch is self-imposed and now they are crossing their fingers people will give up waiting and buy a new (old generation) card. This next launch will be interesting and instructive as to whether nVidia learned their lesson (or if they're even hurt by any of this--the pain is being felt by the non-commercial endusers; trust their profits are doing just fine regardless of who buys what).
 

_l_

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as it's been said here time after time ... the market dictates the prices.

If fewer and fewer are willing buy then prices will drop until the items sell. Eventually it gets so low they wind up tossing the items and writing it off. Meanwhile, a glut of used items will cause prices to lower based on what folks are willing to pay for used items.

Therefore, it is true (for the most part anyways) that the market dictates pricing but keep in mind that corporations/retailers/etc have a bottom line which when hit, they will toss and take the loss
 

DPI

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sleepybp

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Nvidia and AMD can both go F*uck themselves.
Nvidia is milking Pascal with delayed 11xx series to squeeze every last nickel from consumers.
AMD was forced to basically abandon PC gaming GPU's for 2 years because their R&D budget was put into Ryzen (This is likely why Raja left for Intel).

Only hope is that AMD can come back with a GPU more competitive in 2019.
My plan is to buy a cheaper used 1080ti after 11xx series is readily available.
 

Chupachup

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These are all copypaste clickbait jobs of the same "according to an anonymous source in china" rumor nonsense.
I simply picked five Googled samples at random. Do your own research, if you want to dig any deeper! The simple fact that nVidia has said nothing to acknowledge or dispute the information is more than telling in and of itself considering how the discussion is so widely spread (well beyond "clickbait" sites).

These discussions are taking place HERE, on Reddit, LinusTechTips, numerous gaming sites, etc., most of these forums are NOT "clickbait" in nature. Why attempt to stifle the conversation when nVidia could do so with a short press release?

So far, you and "Dougie" haven't been able to provide ANY "official" information discounting the validity of the rumors, while anecdotal information and factual current pricing of two-year old products seems to support the rumors concerning both Nvidia and retailers.

As I stated previously, the nVidia's Q2 earnings call will most likely be a telling event and I eagerly await it.;)
 

DrLobotomy

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You mean people don't want to spend Bentley money on Mustangs? I'm shocked.

Get real NGreedia, Normal folks aint gonna spend $750 for a $300 dollar card.

O Yea, I almost forgot. Fuck NVidia for killing the SLI on the 1060 model.
 

Dougie

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I simply picked five Googled samples at random. Do your own research, if you want to dig any deeper! The simple fact that nVidia has said nothing to acknowledge or dispute the information is more than telling in and of itself considering how the discussion is so widely spread (well beyond "clickbait" sites).

These discussions are taking place HERE, on Reddit, LinusTechTips, numerous gaming sites, etc., most of these forums are NOT "clickbait" in nature. Why attempt to stifle the conversation when nVidia could do so with a short press release?

So far, you and "Dougie" haven't been able to provide ANY "official" information discounting the validity of the rumors, while anecdotal information and factual current pricing of two-year old products seems to support the rumors concerning both Nvidia and retailers.

As I stated previously, the nVidia's Q2 earnings call will most likely be a telling event and I eagerly await it.;)


According to some reports Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has 2 boyfriends, one of whom has been revealed to be a Hard Forum member under name of Chupachup. Of course if Jensen does not respond to these reports we can safely assume that this information is 110% accurate, we can only wish them all the love they want.

Can you see how that works? Just for the record, that's a joke. Forums repost clikbait all the time, and thats all this is, people want cheap graphics cards, and they are going to repost everything that suits that agenda.
 

cyclone3d

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What happends if the GPU's fan fails. How much would that replacement cost you? The fans are some super specific parts and didnt HardOCP already post, everyone has changed their warranties so they wont have to pay to fix miners cards for free for you.

Also, they've already talked it over, Nvidia sells 11xx at way high prices, OEMs stay above MSRP and crypto folks sell at MSRP from two yeards ago. No one loses a dime. Everyone profits. It's already been decided. Get with the times...

I don't plan on any warranty whatsoever when buying used parts.

I got one of the 7970s for $100 back then which was a really, really good price.

If I have a GPU fan fail.. which I haven't since ummm.. probably 2005, I would replace it with an aftermarket cooler if I can't find a stock fan for cheap.
 

rudy

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Each year btc seems to jump in price. This is expected to happen this year. I think this event is the huge what if. And how it plays out will determine the graphics prices. A lot of people forecast crypto to go even higher than last year. So if BTC goes up past last year we will probably see a new mining interest. However if it stays significantly below last year I think we will see a pretty hard crash in the crypto market, a flood of cards go second hand and the major players will be forced to lower prices even on new cards cause they cant store inventory forever.
 

Kdawg

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A lot of people forecast crypto to go even higher than last year. .


Weather forecast has some scientific basis, and is usually pretty accurate within 10 days.

WTF is the basis of crypto "forecast" ? A lot of people having wishful thinking?
My magic 8 ball forecasts crypto as well.
 

Pieter3dnow

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Nvidia and AMD can both go F*uck themselves.
Nvidia is milking Pascal with delayed 11xx series to squeeze every last nickel from consumers.
AMD was forced to basically abandon PC gaming GPU's for 2 years because their R&D budget was put into Ryzen (This is likely why Raja left for Intel).

Only hope is that AMD can come back with a GPU more competitive in 2019.
My plan is to buy a cheaper used 1080ti after 11xx series is readily available.
AMD won't have anything in 2019 that is competitive Navi supposedly is not there yet regarding clock speeds. Even 2020 might not see a product from AMD that will be a "high end" solution
Nvidia will just do the same thing as they did before release something faster then their 2 year old products and if AMD answers they will release something faster then AMD or even not bother and just lower prices...
 

steakman1971

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I have a 970 GPU. Unless I got a killer deal, I would not want to replace this with current gen GPU's when we know next gen should be coming out in the near future.
However, if you can score me a 1080ti for $299, I will sign up :)
 
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