GPU's and CPU's may become nearly impossible to source soon

Charlie5277

Weaksauce
Joined
Jun 7, 2021
Messages
69
Came across a statement - not sure where - that all of nVidia's 3000 series chipsets, and all of AMD's CPUs and GPU chipsets, were being made by one company: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). This is significant, in that China has been making veiled threats that it might take the island nation by force. America, and other local nations (Japan, Australia, others), oppose the invasion of Taiwan by China. TSMC is the worlds only source for the highly advanced fabrication facilities that make the AMD processors, and the nVidia 3000 series GPUs, possible.

If Taiwan were invaded by China, at the very least there would be a disruption in chip delivery. In all likelihood, this disruption would be extensive, possibly lasting many months or (possibly) years. TSMC is a jewel that China covets. Some have suggested that if Taiwan is invaded, the TSMC fabrication facility should be physically destroyed. Under the very best circumstances, it takes 3 years to build a fab plant. And rebuilding following an invasion would hardly be the best circumstances.

If the TSMC facility stopped producing chips for any significant period of time, the availability of AMD and nVidia GPUs would drop to zero. Likewise for AMD CPUs.

And if THAT happened, the aftermarket price for GPUs - used or new - would skyrocket.

So, even though bitcoin value has plummeted, GPU prices may not follow suit. And if Taiwan really is invaded by China, the price of just about any working GPU will probably skyrocket. In a world without any GPUs at all, the man with a used 3000 series GPU for sale can probably just about name his own price.

What are your thoughts? >Charlie
 

Orddie

2[H]4U
Joined
Dec 20, 2010
Messages
3,238
Better get our American versions up and running ASAP! I keep reading about it but not sure it’s actually happening.
 

Nenu

[H]ardened
Joined
Apr 28, 2007
Messages
20,133
If that happened, new AAA games would not be written with fastest cards in mind, those will pose far less of a return, of course influenced by how long it takes to write a game.
That is until new facilities, at least as good, start popping up outside of Chinese influence.
AAA may need a new meaning until then (ie better game structure, storyline etc).
And gfx card ownership will start dropping as older ones die.
There could be problems in the game market after a few years.

Intel may be the only company capable of releasing near high end gfx cards for a long time.
Good luck finding one!

ps
whatever happens, dont kill your gfx card with something stupid, there may be no way out of that hole unless you want a mortgage to buy a gfx card.
 

TheHig

Gawd
Joined
Apr 9, 2016
Messages
991
My thoughts are if China moves on Taiwan and Russia moves on Ukraine and who knows where else then the world takes a serious turn towards global SHTF territory. Suddenly gaming and GPUs and all of this doesn't matter anymore.

Lets hope not.
 

primetime

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 17, 2005
Messages
7,301
My thoughts are if China moves on Taiwan and Russia moves on Ukraine and who knows where else then the world takes a serious turn towards global SHTF territory. Suddenly gaming and GPUs and all of this doesn't matter anymore.

Lets hope not.
this is part of the reason prices are so high....and will stay that way from here on out or get worse.
 

Ceph92

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 17, 2019
Messages
128
Doesn't TSMC produce all of AMD's chips (GPU and CPU)? That would leave Intel as the major player in the CPU market.

Isn't TSMC building a fab here in the US, in Utah or some odd place? I thought it was a condition of doing business with US government.
 

Nenu

[H]ardened
Joined
Apr 28, 2007
Messages
20,133
Doesn't TSMC produce all of AMD's chips (GPU and CPU)? That would leave Intel as the major player in the CPU market.

Isn't TSMC building a fab here in the US, in Utah or some odd place? I thought it was a condition of doing business with US government.
They are still a Taiwanese business, they will be forced to withdraw.
 

Charlie5277

Weaksauce
Joined
Jun 7, 2021
Messages
69
(news clip) "TSMC is building a 12-inch fab in Phoenix, Arizona, for an initial investment of US$12 billion. It plans to produce 20,000 wafers a month using 5-nanometer technology when the fab becomes operational in 2024."

So, that's good news. Except it's not happening for another 2 years. Still, better than nothing.
 

primetime

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 17, 2005
Messages
7,301
(news clip) "TSMC is building a 12-inch fab in Phoenix, Arizona, for an initial investment of US$12 billion. It plans to produce 20,000 wafers a month using 5-nanometer technology when the fab becomes operational in 2024."

So, that's good news. Except it's not happening for another 2 years. Still, better than nothing.
i wonder why they choose dry areas like Arizona for the fabs? we need some fabs on the east coast lol...
 

jacuzz1

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 14, 2004
Messages
7,085
Ask yourself why they have not already invaded and then consider the wild card.... Japan.
 

Charlie5277

Weaksauce
Joined
Jun 7, 2021
Messages
69
Perhaps you see something I do not... I don't see that Japan represents any hindrance to China's plans, either militarily or technologically.
 

drutman

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jan 4, 2016
Messages
359
Doesn't TSMC produce all of AMD's chips (GPU and CPU)? That would leave Intel as the major player in the CPU market.

Isn't TSMC building a fab here in the US, in Utah or some odd place? I thought it was a condition of doing business with US government.
Here you go https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https://www.eetimes.com/tsmcs-arizona-culture-clash/?fbclid=IwAR0jCN68Vz2aC0F31_FZkc1F58BU8NegQyTlGs67imeBKW-dmcNUAHwWsy8&h=AT1nrlwaUApVe8V45MJ7TBCgmDj9djgYL0LvJUp8yHd_xftBS5BSwqbCm7xkMx00f6UHBlX7_Q0UhgVHQtLePptkie6KC6Ryu_-x-r8Sdbert5u98qaZMedPnh4nQYvOIA&__tn__=,mH-R&c[0]=AT3k5ybkgYoET3vfYVEhpdMjwFkd_YMuatOIz4Ct7XwkpcFm_9jImZzInQLvuKsXi8EZXKWIy_Mg0cn9D-UOuRCpdkWxcYyMNFv5TDBSA10OVnZ1gW2PYsbWkLfmxe6HTy5yTN-ySUXw5L95cHSL4kEkMTc

Lazy ass Americans do not want to work whether it is min wage or an Engineering salary in a cutting edge field. I have 30 yrs as a professional Chemist I would run to TSMC for a job like this.
 

LukeTbk

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 10, 2020
Messages
2,342
Came across a statement - not sure where - that all of nVidia's 3000 series chipsets, and all of AMD's CPUs and GPU chipsets, were being made by one company: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)

Depending of what it mean, that seem not only false but widely know has false (that Samsung make the ampere "8nm" consumer Nvidia GPUs):

https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-8nm-process-nvidia-geforce-rtx-30-ampere
Hwaseong, South Korea, I think the foundry.
AMD is a large but, Intel sales about 50% more CPUs.


Maybe you are misremembering, but otherwise you seem to have been reading someone that did not had the first idea of the very basic well known fact, which make the rest they have to say about this hard to be interesting.
 

3dprophet

Limp Gawd
Joined
Oct 9, 2020
Messages
160
They have been threatening Taiwan for decades. An invasion hasn't happened yet and won't happen because it would be too costly.

They will continue political and economic pressure to try to get a more pro-China government in Taiwan.
 
Last edited:

Ceph92

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 17, 2019
Messages
128
Why don't they run the fab 24x7 in three 8-hour shifts? Are they expecting salaried employees to work 12-hour workdays? Or are they paying hourly?
 

LukeTbk

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 10, 2020
Messages
2,342
Why don't they run the fab 24x7 in three 8-hour shifts? Are they expecting salaried employees to work 12-hour workdays? Or are they paying hourly?

- 2 shift in 24/24 7 days a week factory setting is quite common, shift transition is costly (in time and error, every turnovers is a chance for a miscommunication).
- If you have a day crew and a night crew, the day crew pass the workplace to the crew that will give it back to them, not having a third party create a giant incentive to play nice to the people that will have the same power over you later.
- In average people that do let say 4x12 hours days with a very long weekend breaks get more laser focus on the job, not having time for social activity during the working time and having longer off time:
The increased number of days and weekends off is too compelling an incentive to encourage a return to 8-hour workdays, as 12-hour shifts result in 91 fewer shifts per year and double the weekend time off (26 vs 13 days) in 24/7 operations. In an industry-wide survey of chemical plants, 96.5% of employees working 12-hour shifts reported no interest in changing back to an 8-hour schedule.



There is a lot of reason for it.

Has for the are they paying hourly, what would that mean ?
 

drutman

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jan 4, 2016
Messages
359
No this is the American attitude towards work, when I ran a million dollar research nano characterization facility, I had a Professor tell me he didn't have the time to do research due to his teaching load of 5 Grad students.
Again, he only worked 4 hrs a day on campus. Science and tech breakthroughs only advance if you work outside of your job description folks.
 

Ceph92

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 17, 2019
Messages
128
- 2 shift in 24/24 7 days a week factory setting is quite common, shift transition is costly (in time and error, every turnovers is a chance for a miscommunication).
- If you have a day crew and a night crew, the day crew pass the workplace to the crew that will give it back to them, not having a third party create a giant incentive to play nice to the people that will have the same power over you later.
- In average people that do let say 4x12 hours days with a very long weekend breaks get more laser focus on the job, not having time for social activity during the working time and having longer off time:
The increased number of days and weekends off is too compelling an incentive to encourage a return to 8-hour workdays, as 12-hour shifts result in 91 fewer shifts per year and double the weekend time off (26 vs 13 days) in 24/7 operations. In an industry-wide survey of chemical plants, 96.5% of employees working 12-hour shifts reported no interest in changing back to an 8-hour schedule.



There is a lot of reason for it.

Has for the are they paying hourly, what would that mean ?
If they're being asked to work in excess of 40 hours, it should change the math for compensation, time off, etc. Somehow. One way is to just pay an hourly rate.

I don't disagree with a 4x12, I would work that way if I could. But that's my 2nd choice after working hourly with unlimited billable hours.
 

LukeTbk

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 10, 2020
Messages
2,342
If they're being asked to work in excess of 40 hours, it should change the math for compensation, time off, etc. Somehow. One way is to just pay an hourly rate.

I don't disagree with a 4x12, I would work that way if I could. But that's my 2nd choice after working hourly with unlimited billable hours.
Not need to assume they work in excess of 2000 hours a year, but if they do obviously and the time off is build over it.

4 hours extra longer Big Factory job worker of the sort is not some small company worker giving some free time just before and just after is official work time.
 

N4CR

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Messages
4,944
Ole 'sold you hope and took your change' Obama and his documentary company made a film on a Chinese glass manufacturer, that tried to setup manufacturing in USA for Auto glass.
Most of the US workers were so lazy and entitled (and using union to try arm twist them), that they had to look at bringing their own people in after trying to work with US workers for a year. The Chinese also had some unscrupulous tactics but yeah, US work ethic in some industries is appaling.
 

vegeta535

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jul 19, 2013
Messages
8,838
I don't see that issue in higher level position. Educated and skilled people are not afraid bof work. It is the bottom feeders which are over running this country the problem.
 

Varmint

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Apr 10, 2006
Messages
1,852
Why don't they run the fab 24x7 in three 8-hour shifts? Are they expecting salaried employees to work 12-hour workdays? Or are they paying hourly?

It’s talking about two different types of employees. In a US fab the operators who run the equipment do run in 12 hr shifts 24-7. These people make $25/hr or so.

The article is taking about salaried engineers, who typically work 8 hr days in the US. At TSMC the same engineers work 12-14 hr days and sometimes longer if there’s a yield issue, plus are expected to work weekends as needed. I spent 8 weeks in a TSMC fab supporting one of our chip making systems - it’s a brutal work schedule and even the Taiwanese mostly hate their jobs there. That will never work in the US. So a US based TSMC fab isn’t going to be anywhere as effective as one in Taiwan.
 

Varmint

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Apr 10, 2006
Messages
1,852
If they're being asked to work in excess of 40 hours, it should change the math for compensation, time off, etc. Somehow. One way is to just pay an hourly rate.

I don't disagree with a 4x12, I would work that way if I could. But that's my 2nd choice after working hourly with unlimited billable hours.

This is how Asia works mostly - engineers get paid overtime so if they have to stay late or work the weekend they get paid a lot for it. Base salaries are much lower. In the US most engineers are salaried so they don’t want to work weekends and pull all nighters for free.

Another thing is in TSMC you’re not necessarily working during those long hours. We would go in to the fab and sit on the floor by the system for 3 hours waiting for it to become available so we could work on it. They don’t allow smart phones in the fab so this is incredibly boring too.
 

Varmint

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Apr 10, 2006
Messages
1,852
I'd imagine business tax incentives and dry heat, low moisture.

Taiwan is brutally humid, don’t think that matters. It’s probably cheap land and easier to attract engineers to move there cause of low cost of living. Tax incentives like you said are probably the biggest reason - it’s why Global Foundries is in upstate NY.
 

Varmint

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Apr 10, 2006
Messages
1,852
(news clip) "TSMC is building a 12-inch fab in Phoenix, Arizona, for an initial investment of US$12 billion. It plans to produce 20,000 wafers a month using 5-nanometer technology when the fab becomes operational in 2024."

So, that's good news. Except it's not happening for another 2 years. Still, better than nothing.

I don’t think this will happen - the reason is that this move is being forced on TSMC by the US government, and Intel is working with the US government in requiring TSMC to divulge their semiconductor process knowledge so that Intel can get it. TSMC will never do this, so that means they’re going to drag their feet and at best, you’ll get a fab that’s using old nodes whose processes TSMC doesn’t mind disclosing. That won’t help at all with the GPU shortage.
 

Gigantopithecus

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 6, 2009
Messages
1,597
My thoughts are if China moves on Taiwan and Russia moves on Ukraine and who knows where else then the world takes a serious turn towards global SHTF territory. Suddenly gaming and GPUs and all of this doesn't matter anymore.

Lets hope not.
Yikes...
 

Agraffe

n00b
Joined
Apr 18, 2022
Messages
16
When you are skilled, no job would seem tough and vice-versa. Honestly, I don’t think there will be anyone who doesn’t want to make money.
 

drutman

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jan 4, 2016
Messages
359
Ole 'sold you hope and took your change' Obama and his documentary company made a film on a Chinese glass manufacturer, that tried to setup manufacturing in USA for Auto glass.
Most of the US workers were so lazy and entitled (and using union to try arm twist them), that they had to look at bringing their own people in after trying to work with US workers for a year. The Chinese also had some unscrupulous tactics but yeah, US work ethic in some industries is appaling.
I remember this I also saw a show on Ford truck assembly, it was so automated only a human was needed to polish the hood emblem most everything was robotic and required very little human input.
 

vegeta535

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jul 19, 2013
Messages
8,838
I remember this I also saw a show on Ford truck assembly, it was so automated only a human was needed to polish the hood emblem most everything was robotic and required very little human input.
You would think cars would get cheaper. I remember back in HS we went to the Astro van plant on a field trip. There was like 50 people on the line. Each doing one simple task while each person was making $30+ an hour.
 

LukeTbk

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 10, 2020
Messages
2,342
You would think cars would get cheaper. I remember back in HS we went to the Astro van plant on a field trip. There was like 50 people on the line. Each doing one simple task while each person was making $30+ an hour.
I would imagine a 1990 level of car (size, security, options, power) would be much cheaper then back in the days adjusted for inflation, not at the same level but a bit like phone/computer not becoming much cheaper the last 10 year's, people buy much more of a car when they buy them over time.


2021-f-3.png
 

sharknice

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Messages
2,934
I would imagine a 1990 level of car (size, security, options, power) would be much cheaper then back in the days adjusted for inflation, not at the same level but a bit like phone/computer not becoming much cheaper the last 10 year's, people buy much more of a car when they buy them over time.


View attachment 472272

You're correct. I saw a youtube video a couple years ago where it showed the research and math, it was either in an Engineering Explained or Scotty Kilmer video, but I'm not sure what it was called because that wasn't the main subject of the video.
If I remember correctly, after inflation is taken into account it's actually slightly cheaper to get a base model Toyota now compared to a base model ~30 years ago, despite it having way more features, better saftey, performance, etc.
So all the cost of the new tech, saftey features, regulations, etc. is pretty close to offsetting the improved efficiency with automation.

Also I doubt Taiwan will get invaded. Here's a really good video explainign the situation.
 
Top