GPU prices — is the worst behind us ?

Saabjock

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Funny, I'd have thought selling every card they could make was a great way to gain market share. Perhaps you can find an economics major and ask them.
Market share....as a long-term strategy anyway, is not about the sheer number of GPUs sold to a few users.
It is about maximum exposure, with the initial purchasers stating how good the products are thereby causing a 'rush' of potential customers to switch from the competing product.
Hence....market share.
 

Marees

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The concept of GPUs being available on list price seems so far away that Asus is promoting NewEgg style raffles to win a chance to buy GPUs at msrp !!!

ASUS UK (@ASUSUK) Tweeted:
Have you entered your chance to grab a TUF RTX 3070TI at MSRP? #BeOC3DTUF

We teamed up with @OC3D to give you the chance!

Not long left! https://t.co/wyo4MeH6hi https://t.co/y82zN2xVCV

https://twitter.com/ASUSUK/status/1454080109066039296?s=20


https://m-3dcenter-org.translate.go...auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=nui

https://www.3dcenter.org/news/hardware-und-nachrichten-links-des-3031-oktober-2021

FDCqDh0VcAoeM8G.png
 

legcramp

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The concept of GPUs being available on list price seems so far away that Asus is promoting NewEgg style raffles to win a chance to buy GPUs at msrp !!!

ASUS UK (@ASUSUK) Tweeted:


https://twitter.com/ASUSUK/status/1454080109066039296?s=20


https://m-3dcenter-org.translate.go...auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=nui

https://www.3dcenter.org/news/hardware-und-nachrichten-links-des-3031-oktober-2021

View attachment 408327
Seems like this is UK only? I can only enter a UK address in the steam form sign-up.
 

HockeyJon

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The concept of GPUs being available on list price seems so far away that Asus is promoting NewEgg style raffles to win a chance to buy GPUs at msrp !!!

ASUS UK (@ASUSUK) Tweeted:


https://twitter.com/ASUSUK/status/1454080109066039296?s=20


https://m-3dcenter-org.translate.go...auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=nui

https://www.3dcenter.org/news/hardware-und-nachrichten-links-des-3031-oktober-2021

View attachment 408327

That would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad.
 

rgMekanic

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I just want a used 1080 ti or 2070 to upgrade my VR rig. Prices on them are over what the new MSRP was. This is dumb.
 

Marees

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Ethereum prices have crashed & availability has gone up. If these 2 trends hold up then the prices could start tapering down

3DCenter.org (@3DCenter_org) Tweeted:
Graphics card prices in 🇩🇪🇦🇹 as of Jan 23, 2022

👉 Price level go down, a noticeable movement in the right direction.
👉 Availability better again, really no problems to get cards.
👉 ETH price give hope for the future (see yellow line).

https://twitter.com/3DCenter_org/status/1485553210664259589?s=20

FJ297N5aQAcCVkF.png
 

Camberwell

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Ethereum prices have crashed & availability has gone up. If these 2 trends hold up then the prices could start tapering down

3DCenter.org (@3DCenter_org) Tweeted:


https://twitter.com/3DCenter_org/status/1485553210664259589?s=20

View attachment 435995
Not working great for us Europeans right now, I know it's only FE versions but they are the few that occasionally pop up at MRSP...

https://wccftech.com/nvidia-raises-...ders-edition-graphics-cards-family-in-europe/
 

djstarfox

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The million dollar question is... do I keep entering into raffles, shuffles, etc. to buy at current prices, or wait another 3-6 months if/when market conditions improve?
 

kirbyrj

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The million dollar question is... do I keep entering into raffles, shuffles, etc. to buy at current prices, or wait another 3-6 months if/when market conditions improve?

I think current new pricing is here to stay. In 3 to 6 months the only thing you may find cheaper is the secondary market.
 

Lakados

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I think current new pricing is here to stay. In 3 to 6 months the only thing you may find cheaper is the secondary market.
The bulk of these prices are tariffs and shipping. A card with a $750 MSRP gets cranked up to about $990 with those alone.
 

Andrew_Carr

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I
The million dollar question is... do I keep entering into raffles, shuffles, etc. to buy at current prices, or wait another 3-6 months if/when market conditions improve?
If it's just for gaming/personal use and you want a current gen card I would buy now via shuffle or in-store or something, but not at scalper/ebay prices. The last crypto crash caused some people to sell off cards last year but they were bought up pretty quickly and availability just got worse, so who knows if this will last. And if it does, it's still unlikely you'll be getting something like an rtx 3080 for less than MSRP.

If you're buying used from last gen or earlier then it's probably worth waiting.
 

kirbyrj

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The bulk of these prices are tariffs and shipping. A card with a $750 MSRP gets cranked up to about $990 with those alone.

I don't see those changing during the lifespan of current cards. Maybe next gen.
 

Lakados

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I don't see those changing during the lifespan of current cards. Maybe next gen.
Well the tariffs aren’t even in talks to be removed as far as I know, so that 25% is here to stay for sure. And until this shipping nightmare comes to an end those prices aren’t going anywhere but up. So yeah maybe 2023 will be better on those fronts but inflation is going to kick us all in the collective metaphorical balls.
 

undertaker2k8

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Well the tariffs aren’t even in talks to be removed as far as I know, so that 25% is here to stay for sure. And until this shipping nightmare comes to an end those prices aren’t going anywhere but up. So yeah maybe 2023 will be better on those fronts but inflation is going to kick us all in the collective metaphorical balls.
Protectionist policies are implemented in a sec and take decades to unwind, nature of the beast.
 

Marees

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From Tom's Hardware

On average, nearly every graphics card dropped in price by 5% or more, with a few GPUs even breaking into the double digits — the RTX 3090, RTX 3080 (10GB) and RX 6600 all dropped by 10% or more. However, GPU volume (at least on eBay) also dropped substantially for nearly all GPU models, with only the RTX 3090 and RTX 3070 Ti selling more cards in the past week than in late December.

The star of the show goes to AMD's Radeon RX 6600, which tied for the highest price drop of 11.6%, going from $586.89 down to just $518.66.
While that doesn't necessarily equate to a great deal, that's arguably the best deal of 2022 in our current GPU market.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-prices-plummet-along-with-crypto

The important point to note here is that the RX 6600 places a ceiling on the price of RTX 3050, which means the RTX 3050 has to be $500 or less
 
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legcramp

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The RX 6600 has been sitting in stock at newegg for a week @ $459.99, not sure where tom is getting his numbers from.
 

Lakados

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The RX 6600 has been sitting in stock at newegg for a week @ $459.99, not sure where tom is getting his numbers from.
Yeah I can snag a 6600 for $500 CAD right now. So prices are certainly coming down. The RTX 3050 will be priced what it’s priced and it’s gonna sell out for sure. Have there been any clarifications on the bus width and how it’s spec’s compared to the A2000. Part of me thinks they are going to cripple the 3050 so they leave room for the 3050Ti, where the Ti variant is closer to the A2000.

I should note that I am very pleased with my A2000’s and they do far better than I expected of them.
 

Saabjock

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Had guys not run out and pay these exorbitant prices for sh** cards, Nvidia and AMD would have been forced to keep increases smaller...even in this pandemic.
They now know what you are willing to pay to play.
You'll need a miracle to get the prices anywhere sane ever again.
They're like the OPEC of GPUs.
They'll 'manufacture' a shortage condition if they need to, simply to keep the prices where they are now.
Your only hope is if Intel or some other player with deep pockets comes in and decides to take a loss to gain market share.
 

Lakados

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Had guys not run out and pay these exorbitant prices for sh** cards, Nvidia and AMD would have been forced to keep increases smaller...even in this pandemic.
They now know what you are willing to pay to play.
You'll need a miracle to get the prices anywhere sane ever again.
They're like the OPEC of GPUs.
They'll 'manufacture' a shortage condition if they need to, simply to keep the prices where they are now.
Your only hope is if Intel or some other player with deep pockets comes in and decides to take a loss to gain market share.
Based on investor reports neither AMD nor NVidia have increased their margins in any meaningful way.

AIB’s have taken this opportunity to increase their margins slightly but not extravagantly.

The Trump administrations 25% tariff on Chinese assembled electronics paired with supply chain woes that have more than doubled the cost of international shipping is adding significant costs up channel that all get passed down.

Retailers of course have chosen to charge slightly more but again nothing too unusual there given the cards sell.

Neither AMD nor NVidia are the correct targets for our collective frustration here.

If we are lucky then Intel will be able to use their non Chinese facilities to manufacture their cards and skip the tariffs while freight costs will be what they are that still potentially gives them a good chance to sell the cards lower while not taking a bath on them.
 

Krenum

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Based on investor reports neither AMD nor NVidia have increased their margins in any meaningful way.

AIB’s have taken this opportunity to increase their margins slightly but not extravagantly.

The Trump administrations 25% tariff on Chinese assembled electronics paired with supply chain woes that have more than doubled the cost of international shipping is adding significant costs up channel that all get passed down.

Retailers of course have chosen to charge slightly more but again nothing too unusual there given the cards sell.

Neither AMD nor NVidia are the correct targets for our collective frustration here.

If we are lucky then Intel will be able to use their non Chinese facilities to manufacture their cards and skip the tariffs while freight costs will be what they are that still potentially gives them a good chance to sell the cards lower while not taking a bath on them.
You act as if tariff's are a bad thing. If they are so bad and detrimental to the economy, then why hasn't the Biden administration relaxed them? China loves to impose them on the US, so we reciprocate until a balance is made.

https://www.reuters.com/business/bi...ible-easing-tariffs-chinese-goods-2022-01-19/
"I'd like to be able to be in a position where I could say they're meeting their commitments, or more of their commitments, and be able to lift some of them, but we're not there yet," Biden told a news conference at the White House

China has fallen far short of its pledge under the two-year Phase 1 trade agreement to buy $200 billion in additional U.S. goods and services during 2020 and 2021, and it remains unclear how the shortfall will be addressed.

Apparently, Biden is waiting on China.
 
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Lakados

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You act as if tariff's are a bad thing. If they are so bad and detrimental to the economy, then why hasn't the Biden administration relaxed them? China loves to impose them on the US, so we reciprocate until a balance is made.

https://www.reuters.com/business/bi...ible-easing-tariffs-chinese-goods-2022-01-19/
"I'd like to be able to be in a position where I could say they're meeting their commitments, or more of their commitments, and be able to lift some of them, but we're not there yet," Biden told a news conference at the White House

China has fallen far short of its pledge under the two-year Phase 1 trade agreement to buy $200 billion in additional U.S. goods and services during 2020 and 2021, and it remains unclear how the shortfall will be addressed.

Apparently, Biden is waiting on China.
The process to undo the tariffs will take years of negotiations. The US insulted China when they enacted them and China is not hurt by them they will not act first to undo them. Russia stepped in to fill the gap caused by Chinas retaliatory tariffs while the US is paying out Billions in farmer relief to make up for it. The tariffs are simply costing the US money to maintain while China instead found other trade partners while the U.S. found none.

There are no enforceable consequences of China not meeting their quotas. So there is no meaningful way for the US government to enforce it.
 

Lakados

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Good. China has been insulting the United States for decades with tariffs on their goods. A little balance was in order.
Maybe, but it didn’t effect China, increased trade between Russia and China, and has caused the U.S. to pay out billions to the US farmers who it does effect. It’s costing the US more to maintain them then they make in additional revenue.
 

Krenum

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Maybe, but it didn’t effect China, increased trade between Russia and China, and has caused the U.S. to pay out billions to the US farmers who it does effect. It’s costing the US more to maintain them then they make in additional revenue.
Well, that's what happens when a nation depends on another nation to supply them with basic goods. The US is getting its wake up call.
 

Endgame

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Well, that's what happens when a nation depends on another nation to supply them with basic goods. The US is getting its wake up call.
But how else does a 1st world country get ultra cheap consumer goods if they don’t export the labor to some place that pays workers a Buck or two per day? Not like the US consumer is lining up to but by things made in the USA
 

Randall Stephens

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But how else does a 1st world country get ultra cheap consumer goods if they don’t export the labor to some place that pays workers a Buck or two per day? Not like the US consumer is lining up to but by things made in the USA
I’m probably the exception but in my house we actively try to avoid Chinese products. Can’t avoid everything but we do look at the product origin before we buy. Pharmaceuticals especially. There it’s things from India we avoid.
 

Krenum

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But how else does a 1st world country get ultra cheap consumer goods if they don’t export the labor to some place that pays workers a Buck or two per day? Not like the US consumer is lining up to but by things made in the USA
Exactly.
 

Saabjock

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The greed of US importers and to some extent...manufacturers, is at the heart of the trade imbalance.
For years, they were happy to fire US workers and ship their jobs abroad.
Those outsourced products would then be brought back to compete with...and in many cases outsell products made here.
The loyal companies either folded or were forced to do the same.
The problem now.... is that we do not have a skilled workforce to produce these components.
Tariffs only work for consumers if you have competing products.
If you don't, you just pay more.
Guess where we are?
 
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HockeyJon

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The process to undo the tariffs will take years of negotiations. The US insulted China when they enacted them and China is not hurt by them they will not act first to undo them. Russia stepped in to fill the gap caused by Chinas retaliatory tariffs while the US is paying out Billions in farmer relief to make up for it. The tariffs are simply costing the US money to maintain while China instead found other trade partners while the U.S. found none.

There are no enforceable consequences of China not meeting their quotas. So there is no meaningful way for the US government to enforce it.

Not to get political, but suggesting that China isn't hurt by US tariffs is a fallacy. The US is almost 20% of Chinese exports and Russia can't fill that in. They need the American consumer to fund their expansionism, and any threat to that is going to cause them serious amounts of pain. The difference is that China is willing to cut it's own nose off to spite its face. Most countries won't do that, and even China can only take that so far before it becomes an issue for them. They're massively indebted from their megaprojects, many of which are not profitable, and we're starting to see the dominoes fall with companies like Evergrande pulling a Lieman Brothers.

In any case, if the objective is to spur foundry construction stateside, then that appears to be working based on current evidence, and I don't suspect there is much US appetite to take their foot off the gas as long as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel keep announcing plans for fabs in the US. Next will be manufacturing capacity for the boards and assembly of complete cards. In the meantime, the consumer will pay a heavy price, but that's been deemed worthwhile in the interest of securing a supply of a strategic resource, in this case, microchips. Hopefully this will increase domestic production in the long run and protect us from future supply shocks, but time will tell.
 

sleepeeg3

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In any case, if the objective is to spur foundry construction stateside, then that appears to be working based on current evidence, and I don't suspect there is much US appetite to take their foot off the gas as long as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel keep announcing plans for fabs in the US. Next will be manufacturing capacity for the boards and assembly of complete cards. In the meantime, the consumer will pay a heavy price, but that's been deemed worthwhile in the interest of securing a supply of a strategic resource, in this case, microchips. Hopefully this will increase domestic production in the long run and protect us from future supply shocks, but time will tell.
That has actually been one of the benefits of crypto - increasing the demand for chips to the point that it is cost effective to build in the US. Invisible hand drives production.

Back to GPU prices - buy the dip. It won't last. Inflation will continue and crypto depreciation will keep pushing people out of stunks. The trillions of dollars that were printed in the last few years are only beginning to get baked into the new prices. It takes time for the supply chain to adjust to the increased demand.
 

HockeyJon

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That has actually been one of the benefits of crypto - increasing the demand for chips to the point that it is cost effective to build in the US. Invisible hand drives production.

Back to GPU prices - buy the dip. It won't last. Inflation will continue and crypto depreciation will keep pushing people out of stunks. The trillions of dollars that were printed in the last few years are only beginning to get baked into the new prices. It takes time for the supply chain to adjust to the increased demand.

There are far more causes of the current chip shortage that go way beyond just crypto. You have to remember that datacenters have surged and WFH led to a spike in demand for PCs of all kinds. Crypto is a part of that, but it's a small factor among many larger ones.

In any case, there is a lot more to the competitiveness issue than just things like labour cost when it comes to where one locates foundaries. You have to remember that the US also has significantly more strict regulations on things like environmental damage. You can have a heavy metals tailing pond in the middle of China and it's not going to matter. If that happens in the US, CNN is there the next day accompanied by environmental activists who will push to shut you down, plus stricter enforcement on fines and clean up costs. Also, because of how the global supply chain is set up, even if the US ramps up chip production, they still need to build facilities for assembling things like motherboards. Asia already has that infrastructure, so the US will have to put up a huge capital investment to catch up, meaning you can look forward to your tax dollars being sent to companies like Intel to make this happen. I suspect it will, but the US does have a bit of a road in front of it. Strategic needs will override everything.
 

sleepeeg3

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There are far more causes of the current chip shortage that go way beyond just crypto. You have to remember that datacenters have surged and WFH led to a spike in demand for PCs of all kinds. Crypto is a part of that, but it's a small factor among many larger ones.
Who could forget that? Crypto is only one component, however it's clearly a lot more major than you may realize. AMD's 6x surge in stock price in 2016 before they released Ryzen was not due to a pandemic or datacenter usage - it was due to RX480s flying off the shelves for crypto mining. You can look at the exponential rise in GPU prices before the pandemic to see that. It a major factor in making things cost competitive to bring production back to the US, despite all of our onerous environmental and labor cost issues.
 
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biggles

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While it is informative to read these threads in order to learn about the causes of the GPU prices the truth is that nobody knows where the prices will go next. People have been speculating about this topic for years. I believe prices will someday normalize but have no idea when this will occur. Not even a clue.
 

Krenum

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While it is informative to read these threads in order to learn about the causes of the GPU prices the truth is that nobody knows where the prices will go next. People have been speculating about this topic for years. I believe prices will someday normalize but have no idea when this will occur. Not even a clue.
One thing is for sure, the prices will remain to what the market can bare. If people continue to buy graphics cards at absurd prices, the market will continue to price them at absurd prices.
 

Lakados

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While it is informative to read these threads in order to learn about the causes of the GPU prices the truth is that nobody knows where the prices will go next. People have been speculating about this topic for years. I believe prices will someday normalize but have no idea when this will occur. Not even a clue.
Depends on what you consider normal, I personally think that they’ve more or less hit a wall on what can be done with monolithic cores. The stuff we’re getting now is just stopgaps to hold us over until they can effectively get MCM cards to the market.

GPUs PCB layouts can then start simplifying and with decreased chip complexity prices can start to at least get to a point where price to performance doesn’t feel inverted when compared to previous generations.

But until manufacturing capacity can meet demand pricing is going to be all out of whack.
 
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