GPU prices — is the worst behind us ?

Marees

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A look at the current graphics card market reveals a development that can now be called clearly positive compared to two weeks ago. — as per an analysis by 3dCenter.org of GPU prices
E2tWdObUUAEo3Z1.png

The question that arises from this is, of course, how sustainable this development is - or whether this would not simply level out the additional price exaggerations from mid-May and then nothing further (downwards). The delivery quantities cautiously speak a different language, apparently now substantially more goods are arriving. This was indicated by a tweet from VideoCardz during the week . Of course, everything now depends on whether these delivery quantities of the completed week can subsequently become permanent. Only then can the mountain of demand that has been pent up for several months be removed - which will then break out as soon as street prices drop to a reasonably tolerable levelshould .

3DCenter.org (@3DCenter_org) Tweeted:
GPU retail prices 🇩🇪🇦🇹 as of May 30, 2021

👉 Availability has increased quite well.

👉 Most prices went down noticeable, but overall price level remains very high.

👉 With some luck, the point of highest price exaggeration is behind us.

https://y4r4zxpe3wwdbx5pcsilsvksii-...dware-und-nachrichten-links-des-2930-mai-2021
https://twitter.com/3DCenter_org/status/1399312198489411590?s=20
 

kirbyrj

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This thread is impossible to address with out politics so I will just say maybe, Mining crash will restore prices and availability?

Mining is still profitable...just not as profitable as it has been recently. There's still a ~120 day ROI window for most cards assuming they can be found near MSRP.

ETH fork in July might put a dent in that, but it's still over a month away. ERG though is hot on its heels right now. Unlikely to maintain that level of profitability if there is a sudden shift from ETH to ERG.

That's only IF you believe that miners are to blame for shortages instead of one of many factors.
 

travm

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Lisa "Mary" Su also bad, but don't worry, they won't have a limited launch like others...
To be fair they did likely have a typical AMD launch, but had massively underestimated demand, while frankly there was zero capacity.
 

LukeTbk

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To be fair they did likely have a typical AMD launch, but had massively underestimated demand, while frankly there was zero capacity.
j9TSPpVjx5yGjx8AMLNjk4-970-80.png

That include previous generation card shipment but should give an idea, millions of discrete gpu shipped by quarter since 2014 to Q4 2020.

AMD had higher volume in Q2-Q3-Q4 (2.37, 2.84, 3.66) 2019 than Q2-Q3-Q4 (2.09-2.65-1.87) 2020, that 75% of the shipment in 2020 versus 2019 for those 3 quarter.

Nvidia shipped 22% more than 2019 for the similar range.

If we would include PS5-Xbox rdna2 in the units above I would imagine they could have been even higher than average, but for PC discrete GPU they seem to have been low for all of the pandemy quarter, historically holiday Q4 tend to be the biggest of the year or at least bigger than Q3, was significantly down for AMD in 2020 despite record demand.

It would be interesting to have the graph above compared with mining revenues for both set of cards over that time.
 

sphinx99

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View attachment 361586

That include previous generation card shipment but should give an idea, millions of discrete gpu shipped by quarter since 2014 to Q4 2020.

AMD had higher volume in Q2-Q3-Q4 (2.37, 2.84, 3.66) 2019 than Q2-Q3-Q4 (2.09-2.65-1.87) 2020, that 75% of the shipment in 2020 versus 2019 for those 3 quarter.

Nvidia shipped 22% more than 2019 for the similar range.

If we would include PS5-Xbox rdna2 in the units above I would imagine they could have been even higher than average, but for PC discrete GPU they seem to have been low for all of the pandemy quarter, historically holiday Q4 tend to be the biggest of the year or at least bigger than Q3, was significantly down for AMD in 2020 despite record demand.

It would be interesting to have the graph above compared with mining revenues for both set of cards over that time.
Interesting chart. It suggests little meaningful increase in capacity over the last six years, while other product categories are seeing exponential increases in volume. I would not have expected this.
 

DPI

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Flawed data,
A look at the current graphics card market reveals a development that can now be called clearly positive compared to two weeks ago. — as per an analysis by 3dCenter.org of GPU prices

Unfortunately that's not really "the current graphics card market" so much as it is one guy with a blog and twitter doing a few manual spot checks on German retailer websites and trying to derive meaning from it. You can't really extrapolate from that without ending up in Magic 8-Ball territory. Too many unseen variables and moving parts that affect pricing which aren't being considered. For starters, distribution isn't equal or linear across territories - different retailers in different countries get different allocations at different times.

If the question you're interested in is "have GPU resale prices peaked" - maybe, for the moment. But if you draw a line between the 3000 series launch and now, it's still trending upward. And as long as it's still trending upward, the date of being able to easily buy a GPU in stock at MSRP pushes further and further out - 2022 and beyond.

Crypto mining profitability will continue to fluctuate, and new monkey wrenches will also factor: like 3080 Ti AIB cards potentially arriving at "pre-scalped" $2000+ pricing, and if enough partners do that, there will be a trickle down effect. Endless variables.
 
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LukeTbk

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Interesting chart. It suggests little meaningful increase in capacity over the last six years, while other product categories are seeing exponential increases in volume. I would not have expected this.
Desktop pc sales declined pretty much every year and integrated gpu became the norm over time, making the dgpu sales in units decline a big one since the lates 2000s I think

jpr_q2_2016_mkt_historical_annual_gpu_sales_575px.png

The average price probably exploded during that time, has in the past video card just to have your computer actually work was a type that was sold, that intel integrated gpu almost all removed from the market.
 

sfsuphysics

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I'm largely not caring if the "worst" is behind us, just whether or not we'll even get back to where we started, and yeah I don't see that happening anytime soon/ever.

The dream of a $399 for 2080 Super level performance is dead, which is a damn shame because that was the whole fricking point behind what made these cards attractive. I mean sure in the future you may get that kind of performance for that price, but not single generation increase.
 

Marees

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I'm largely not caring if the "worst" is behind us, just whether or not we'll even get back to where we started, and yeah I don't see that happening anytime soon/ever.

The dream of a $399 for 2080 Super level performance is dead, which is a damn shame because that was the whole fricking point behind what made these cards attractive. I mean sure in the future you may get that kind of performance for that price, but not single generation increase.
True. The 6700 XT give 2080 super level of performance. I guess it is trending towards the price of a 2080 super at same time last year. ($700 to $800)

Add to that, there won't be a generational leap in price performance this year, then it means we are back by 2 years (in terms of GPU launch cycles) due to all this madness.
 

HAL_404

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just wait 2 or 3 years until the miners dump their worn out GPU's and gamers can buy them up for MRSP (or more)
 

Marees

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price drops on high hash-rate graphics cards such as the RTX 3090 (a 32% price drop during this period) and RTX 3080/RTX 3070 graphics cards (which dropped by 25%).
WrcKJ5JRyLYMCFHo_thm.jpg MsoGLpab83QyLOoL_thm.jpg

Since these are the costliest graphics cards, and present the greatest investment risk should their cost not be recouped via mining, miners are offloading these first, in an attempt to make up for their investment and/or to still get some $ in while pricing is still high.

https://www.techpowerup.com/283487/...er-may-be-ahead?amp&__twitter_impression=true


Taiwanese motherboard-maker ASRock has stated that graphics card prices are starting to stabilize as demand from miners in mainland China plummets following restrictions on cryptomining across key provinces.

https://www.hardwaretimes.com/amd-r...d-half-of-2021/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Jens 'JensTX' Bakker (@Jens_TX) Tweeted:
Graphics card prices are falling! An RTX 3070 for 900 euros! https://t.co/fC4GqpXvUr
https://twitter.com/Jens_TX/status/1405188114876977152?s=20
 

sfsuphysics

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Agree, this generation didn't really feel that special anyway.
It was weird because it was the same price at various tiers the release prices of the 20 series, yeah you could get 1 or 1.5 tiers more performance compare to the previous gen but isn't that more or less true with each upgrade? 1070 was faster than 980, 2070 was faster than 1080, etc.?
 

staknhalo

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I'm just gonna get a 3060ti if I can and then buy a 4070 (I usually skip a gen, but have been without a GPU since last August); unless the 4070 comes out before I can nab a 3060ti. At this point who knows.
 

defaultluser

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Etherium being down for the last month definitely helps, but I also think if they transition to proof-of-stake later this year, that will have an even greater impact on GPU demand.

If you don't have enough spare cash to buy enough Etherium to replicate your current mining output, the only way to do that is to panic-sell your excess GPUs.

You further have no other coin making near the money ETH does (so why not convert large swatch of GPUs ->USD -> ETH?)
 

Flogger23m

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Even if demand is letting up, I’m not sure purchasing this cycle makes sense anymore. Probably better off to wait for the 4k series

That is likely 1+ year out. The 2*** series lasted about two years. Generations are just longer these days. And I think Nvidia/AMD aren't ready to release new cards. Likewise for AIBs. Ignoring the crypto mining it seems like they aren't even close to meeting demand for the gamer market. Why reinvest in new R&D when you still have many customers to serve with your current offering?
 

Endgame

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That is likely 1+ year out. The 2*** series lasted about two years. Generations are just longer these days. And I think Nvidia/AMD aren't ready to release new cards. Likewise for AIBs. Ignoring the crypto mining it seems like they aren't even close to meeting demand for the gamer market. Why reinvest in new R&D when you still have many customers to serve with your current offering?
I tend to judge video card value on days until replacement. We are probably just under half way to the new cards (fall 2022?), which means I’ve lost half the value of buying on launch day. We are also still seeing cards selling well above msrp - by the time they actually hit msrp we will probably be getting info on the 4K series.
 
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I'm largely not caring if the "worst" is behind us, just whether or not we'll even get back to where we started, and yeah I don't see that happening anytime soon/ever.

The dream of a $399 for 2080 Super level performance is dead, which is a damn shame because that was the whole fricking point behind what made these cards attractive. I mean sure in the future you may get that kind of performance for that price, but not single generation increase.
That's a really good point as to why this kind of ruins the fun of buying a new GPU. I have the money to buy one, but I find I don't want to because it's just not a good deal, and part of what made the RTX 30 series exciting was the idea of getting RTX 20 series performance for less money. I mean, the cards are pretty power hungry and aren't using a whole lot less power for the same performance level than last gen cards, so the price cut was all they really had going for them. If the 3080 was a 170W card, I might be willing to pay these prices for that level of performance with lower power consumption. But as things stand, it's a 320W sucker that's probably going to be all worn out in like 5 years. With these prices, it's impractical to bother with the RTX 30 series at all when you could probably get a 2070 or a 1080 Ti at similar levels of performance and power consumption. When you start thinking in terms of what you "need" to play games rather than what would be cool to have, it becomes tempting to stick with 1080p 60 FPS for another generation and get the cheapest card you can get that will maintain 60FPS in your chosen game at good settings, and at that point you start thinking, "Well, all the games in my Steam library are from pre-2017, so if I don't buy any newer games, I can stick with what I have," and before you know it all the wind is out of your sails and your enthusiasm is gone. It becomes more interesting to see what games you missed out on that will still run well on your current hardware and how long you can stretch it for, if you're not going to get more performance per dollar.

Before you know it, you're feeling content with the level of performance you have and questioning whether this is a good time to replace your 560 Ti with a GT 1030 and your 670 with a 1050 Ti in order to have something with better driver support and lower power consumption, given that those are the only tangible benefits available for a reasonable price now. At this point the only reason I have for wanting an RTX 30 series card is because I want something with PCI-E 4.0 and I also don't want a used card that could have either been overclocked to death or mined on continually. That's really about it. I just want a recently manufactured graphics card that's not on its last legs and that can take advantage of a PCI-E 4.0 motherboard. If I can't get what I want, then I might as well stick with what I have, because in my mind having to be out money to not get what I want feels worse than sticking with what I have. Another thing frustrating me is that the RTX 40 series may well have PCI-E 5.0, and if it does it's going to pain me to put a PCI-E 5.0 GPU into a PCI-E 4.0 motherboard...

It sucks when you're extremely picky (probably because of being on the autistic spectrum) and you want a specific brand, with specific features, and you won't be satisfied with anything less... while miners and gamers with more money than sense take whatever they can get and make it some kind of free-for-all "Black Friday" situation that seems to never end. All the money flooding in is ruining my hobby for me and making me want to settle for less. I don't like living in a world where graphics cards are worth their weight in gold. I can't look at a graphics card now and see a graphics card, I just see metaphorical stacks of cash and now find myself thinking about them as an investment, more like I would a car or a house. Even if I had one in hand, I would be thinking about how it would lose value the moment I open it up and put in the PC and wouldn't be able to pull the plastic off. It's just... ruined for me now. I can't enjoy a new graphics card anymore. A device that expensive is just too valuable to be used for fun and games... it's only for professionals and miners. It doesn't work, it makes about as much sense as buying a Quadro for gaming. But there's no choice. They're all like Quadro cards now.
 
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ManofGod

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Exactly. As I warned here last summer,inflation is about to again tear most a new a hole in a big way,beyond what has already happened.

Its going to be truly Biblical.

Yes but, we will not be paying $2500 for a 6900XT because of inflation.
 

rbtree

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Exactly. As I warned here last summer,inflation is about to again tear most a new a hole in a big way,beyond what has already happened.

Its going to be truly Biblical.
Hoping you're overstating it....I've read a few early prognostications, which weren't so dire, but I'm worried, as you are. My stock portfolio is already headed down...and, as interest rates rise, the pace of home value appreciation in my bailiwick is sure to drop way off. It should, as in some areas, mostly where my home is and rental (30 mi north), it's been over 20%. I've been planning to sell my rental this year, which is now worth 150-200% of cost....I'd best hop to it.
 

LukeTbk

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My stock portfolio is already headed down.
Stock like house tend to be fully protected from inflation, you should have little to worry about on both aspect (if it really goes to high raise of interest rate to slow down the economy I imagine nothing is safe anyway).
 

rbtree

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Stock like house tend to be fully protected from inflation, you should have little to worry about on both aspect (if it really goes to high raise of interest rate to slow down the economy I imagine nothing is safe anyway).
Yeah, I'm not too worried.... thanks. We're certainly not going to see inflation or interest rates like they were back in the late 1970's.... I seem to recall getting 16% int on a savings account... and mortgage rates hit that stratospheric level too. My first home purchase, where I still live, had a 8 or 9% 1st mortgage, and the seller carried a small 2nd at 12%. I paid them both off early and now it's worth close to 9x of what I paid in 1985.

^ I just googled, and I was spot on. Rates peaked in 1981 at 16.63%!!!
 
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It was weird because it was the same price at various tiers the release prices of the 20 series, yeah you could get 1 or 1.5 tiers more performance compare to the previous gen but isn't that more or less true with each upgrade? 1070 was faster than 980, 2070 was faster than 1080, etc.?

I guess I look to TDP / performance to identify improvements in generational releases. This generation just didn't stack up for me.

Behemoth GPU's that destroy your energy bill (along with the 'actual' TDP on that intel CPU) and ruin your comfy gamer moments with the heat & noise generated aren't for me anymore. Stacking up all my equipment as a whole (monitors etc..) i have generally worked the limits at which i know in my climate i can have comfort on a hot & humid day with all of it running semi / full tilt.

I mean look at intel's CPU's pulling 215w+ and 3090's spiking at 450w how is this a generational improvement. I like my entire PC system under 300w full tilt. preferably id like to get it down to around the 250w level. That is in fact, why im now considering moving to an ultra SFF APU build for casual stuff ( 8 core 16 thread desktop performance + nvme + RDNA APU + linux is going to fly) and then having a machine which is just for demanding gaming / VR. Perhaps this is why AMD / Intel are moving to a big/little architecture for they know that 90% of the time the CPU needs to sip power in comfy mode whilst you browse the web and do minor productivity work.. and you know a 70$ ARM board can almost do this just fine, but next gen ARM ? i think it's going to be the tipping point .. but i digress.

Next gen i would like to see a bigger improvement in TDP, remember how good the 1080 was for this when it came out, and now all they seemed to have done is raise the limit and get the exact performance vs the raised power limit and shuffle some naming around. Doesn't seem like progress to me, but i think they knew this gen was more of a tick than a tock. I can't get a current gen GPU but in truth i actually don't even want one.
 
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ssj925

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I just hope manufacturers don't start using the pricing to increase MSRP of next gen GPUs.

If a 3090 is $1499 and 3080Ti is $1199, who knows if they will increase it to $1999 for a 4090 and $1499 for a 4080Ti since so many people are buying GPUs at those prices like on eBay.
 

kirbyrj

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I just hope manufacturers don't start using the pricing to increase MSRP of next gen GPUs.

If a 3090 is $1499 and 3080Ti is $1199, who knows if they will increase it to $1999 for a 4090 and $1499 for a 4080Ti since so many people are buying GPUs at those prices like on eBay.

They'll reach a point where nobody buys them. Look at Turing cards. Many decided that Pascal was good enough. It could come to that again. Ampere is good enough in the face of high prices.
 

ssj925

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They'll reach a point where nobody buys them. Look at Turing cards. Many decided that Pascal was good enough. It could come to that again. Ampere is good enough in the face of high prices.
Yeah that's true but I don't think we really had a shortage years ago during 20 series. And if any of rumors are to be believed Ada Lovelace (40 series) should be a decent deal faster than 30 series.

Not to mention right now many people are looking for 30 series and if that's still the case when 40 series comes out, then idk lol.
 
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Hoping you're overstating it....I've read a few early prognostications, which weren't so dire, but I'm worried, as you are. My stock portfolio is already headed down...and, as interest rates rise, the pace of home value appreciation in my bailiwick is sure to drop way off. It should, as in some areas, mostly where my home is and rental (30 mi north), it's been over 20%. I've been planning to sell my rental this year, which is now worth 150-200% of cost....I'd best hop to it.


My wife and I converted our 401k and Stocks into Crypto,and mostly Bitcoin years ago. Its been wildly successful.
 
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