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Discussion in 'Memory' started by capt_cope, Jun 27, 2017.
Do the geniuses claiming price fixing even know what price fixing is?
your claim to know everything and your oblivious to it
...the proliferation of all things computer - read: have a CPU in them, read iot:server:routers:switches:smartphones:net tops, desktops.laptops - need memory. Who makes the chips?
I gotta thing that I make and everyone wants them. Who wants to pay the best price. Uhhh, we also make: iot:server:routers:switches:smartphones:net tops, desktops.laptops.....and memory.
Business = competition and sometimes co-op'etition. Makes friends until an internal need is more important.
When everybody needs something the supply goes down and the price goes up. Then the following year, more supply than demand and the price goes down. Then a new supply need is found and the supply goes down again = price goes up.
Samsung refrigerators have computers in them. Who makes their memory chips?
Asfar as price fixing, unfortunate that a few companies have paid penalties for doing so. Doesnt mean that every lack of product at higher than msrp is because of it. Hey, overtime is "ON" at the fabs that are making the chips. Shows that somebody underestimated its need.
What is my oblivious? This post makes zero sense.
Price fixing is when there is ample supply for demand but prices are artificially kept high via conspiracy. Considering all major memory customers have continued to blame memory shortages, we know that's not the case.
As for more supply than demand, the benefit of the consolidated industry is it's easy to keep an eye on one another. If your competitors aren't trying to steal market share by pumping up production, then they don't need to pump up production. This is why Samsung just stated that their focus is on profits and not market share - they don't want to kill their cash cow by devaluing their best product. DRAM and NAND is funding the rest of the company while generating massive profits. The crybabies think these companies should spend $10-20B over the next 2-3 years to increase production 50-100% to crash prices to the point that MIcron and maybe SK Hynix would be unprofitable. If that lasts long enough, only Samsung would survive - how do you think pricing will go then?
The pricing sucks if you want to buy memory and can't afford it, but people need to grow up; this is the way the world and business works. There is no formal collusion, there is no price fixing, there is only rapidly increasing demand that $40-50B in annual capex is struggling to keep up with. For example: 8GB DRAM in a phone - that's a massive demand increase should the majority of phones jump to that spec in the next couple of years. iPhone X only has 3GB.
Thats not even a sentence, so..... your correct your post makes no sense
and my post very well makes sense, the "it" at the end refers to price fixing.
These companies have been caught manipulating the market before.
Was it Samsung that switched a dram fab to other products recently. Read that somewhere.
Whatever vocabulary is used it is really easy to believe prior bad actors are doing more of the same.
Some might call it nieave to think otherwise.
With the Fab buy-in cost really easy to get away with as well.
Wonder if I can float a loan for 30 bill to start a business? I have really good credit. ... oh you need a security for the loan?
Not increasing capacity at a higher rate is not a "bad action", it's a business decision - and a good one when you look at their earnings growth. I hadn't realized this board was filled with whiny communists.
And again, watch how China performs if you think it's so easy to just start a DRAM and NAND mfg company.
I am not sure you are fully reading my posts.
Nah, I read it it fully, specifically focusing on "Whatever vocabulary is used it is really easy to believe prior bad actors are doing more of the same"
What's that sound?
Oh it's the sound of the PC market imploding.
It's true; between memory prices and GPU shortages/price gouging, the PC market is having a rough run. To make matters worse, if PC DRAM demand drops, prices won't drop - the mfgs will simply migrate production to mobile, server, or graphics DRAM. Then, if PC DRAM demand increases, prices will increase even more.
In that case, you might want to use "you're", as in the acronym for "you are". E.G. "You are oblivious to it"
They are making fun of you because you wrote: "your", which means something you own. E.G. "Your computer"
It had nothing to do with the content or intention of your post.
I wasn't aware that I was being made fun of, I thought that was against the rules here?
What I said is clearly understandable as you pointed out. Not sure what your contribution is supposed to be exactly?
To be back on topic;
All the while
Is this not collusion? a mutual agreement to not "pump up production" ?
My contribution was simple to correct what appears to be a misunderstanding between you and another user(s).
and you are welcome by the way
.... jebus the attitude.
Oh since your fixing misunderstandings, what was the meaning of this post?
There is no agreement in place, just common business sense. Take Econ 101.
Oh been there yrs ago, Soo I purposely move production to another product to keep the shortage and maximize profit on the product because I "know" my competition won't steal market share, then I'm just a great CEO. But how did I know this?
Guess that's the part you're oblivious too...
All the while racking in record profits and hoping no one notices
Well... maybe. See the reason people may be suspicious is this has happened before and it WAS illegal collusion to raise prices. Back in 2002 the US looked in to RAM makers for price fixing and as a result of that a number plead guilty, and got hundred millions in fines, and there was even jail time for some execs.
So it isn't like it is without precedent for people to think some shady shit might be going on. Along those lines, China's economic regulators are investigating the memory makers because of this. So they think there might be something to it.
The result of the Chinese “investigation” was a memorandum of understanding that Samsung will continue to invest in China and will consider slowing mobile DRAM price increases. Big win
Perhaps you should reflect on your position being the same as the Chinese governments?
Just because price fixing happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s happening now. As stated, there is no supply available to price fix, it sells out well in advance. Your problem, along with every other salty poster in this thread, is that others are willing to pay more for memory than you are. This is the result of a free market, and you are championing interference in that free market.
Demand has skyrocketed, will continue to do so, and the memory manufacturers have no incentive to change the status quo; I.e. this is the new normal, get used to it (and buy now if you want new/more RAM). Announcing their plans for capacity expansion (or lack thereof for you folks) publically isn’t collusion, it’s what’s demanded of them by shareholders and regulators.
It blows my mind that people argue against making money. If you want to claim price fixing or collusion, provide proof - as of now there is none. Otherwise, you’re just a child crying because you’re not getting your way.
Let's take a breather right there. Just because China has a healthy dose of suspicion doesn't invalidate their perspective. Yes, prior actions don't determine future behavior, but we would be fools to not at least consider the fact that bad actors are acting badly once again. You can't brush off precedent.
Interference with the free market? Free market pushes businesses that are doing well do produce more in order to do even better. Nowhere do I see any manufacturers saying - no thanks, we're good, making enough money, don't need anymore. Actively limiting production capacity is a form of price fixing, if done for precisely that reason - which is unconfirmed so far.
This is what exasperates me. First of all, everyone who is displeased at other people's dissatisfaction with the current situation, you're not helping anyone or appearing as sage masters of Zen just because you call others whiny children. Pretty much the opposite. Second of all, and most importantly for the whole tone of your post, just because there's not proof doesn't mean something isn't happening - just because you can't find proof that person A killed person B, it doesn't make it false, just unproven. The previous price fixing took years to be formally argued and sanctioned. That's why it's so important that agencies, institutions and people remain vigilant, specially with known bad actors. That's hardly being a crying child, that's just the intelligent and honest part of the market protecting its consumers.
Personally I have no problem paying $100 for another 8gb of DDR4, however outrageous I may feel that is. If manufacturers, however, are contributing to this price gouging, then I want for all legal hell to break loose for them. I'll pay what the market establishes as an honest price - despite currently being double MSRP - but I'm not someone who looks keenly on being fooled.
Sure, no proof doesn’t mean it’s not happening, but it certainly means one should get some facts to support one’s accusations before making them instead of whining and throwing out baseless accusations. Yes, it’s whining; sometimes we have to pay more than we want for a good or service. I certainly don’t enjoy forking over hundreds of dollars to fly on a cramped, in humane airline seat, but I do it when I need to.
We know price fixing is not happening because there is a dire DRAM shortage, just read the quarterly reports of big memory consumers. When price fixing, they would sell you as much as you want. Again, those throwing out baseless accusations should actually learn about what they’re accusing these companies of doing.
The government cannot force these companies to spend tens of billions to create new fabs, the very idea is ludicrous and yes, I find anyone who opposes such a viewpoint infantile, irrational, or just anti-capitalist (which seems to be the case for many in the younger generation).
The bottom line is nothing is going to change in the near future. There will not be relief in DRAM prices, they’re going up and it may get worse as Trump wants to renegotiate the trade deal with South Korea (or slap tariffs on their exports) where 75% of DRAM is manufactured.
I find it ironic that the Chinese are being looked to as the saviors for this situation, but their first generation or two will be very disappointing. An interesting news item hit this morning about Apple entering into talks with the Chinese NAND manufacturer (wannabe , anyway) about buying the first order in late 2019 to 2020. They’re sampling 32L NAND when the current players are beginning to ramp up 96L. Why would Apple commit to such an inferior tech well before it’s been qualified?
Several memory makers basically went broke during the cheap memory days and wound up getting gobbled up by the bigger guys.
The ones that are left are not interested in over extending themselves & running into trouble, they will increase production slowly as there is guaranteed long term demand. They are also not in a hurry to flood the market with memory & race to the bottom on profits once again.
They will make as much product as they can with their current fabs for whichever memory gives them the greatest profit, but are not going to make new plants or invest company risking sums of money on excess production lines.
The big question is when will China get their fabs online? That is when memory prices will start to level off & go down.
I'm not saying who's right or wrong here, just taking issue with your logic. We can all accuse of whatever we want, whenever we want, however many times we want. A smoking gun, by definition, is baseless, but heavily suspicious. Accusations are not burdened by proof: sanctions are. Only when people voice their accusations over and over again society gets institutions to react and investigate. Then, it may go nowhere or the suspicions may be confirmed. Without a healthy dose of suspicion and accusations, you get nowhere in this life (take that as the millennial logic, but before you criticize it, consider what societal evidences of abuse and overreach have made that generation so distrustful).
On this we can agree. Nothing will improve until China enters the market. Trump's volatility on international policy is definitely not helping matters.
1) take your own advice and don't accuse 1st gen chinese memory as inferior without proof. Prior actions don't determine future performance. Besides, your argument seems to contradict itself: China's 1st gen is supposed to arrive in late 2019, and you're telling me Apple is trying to buy that order - therefore, can't be that inferior, can it? Which is the contradiction within the beginning and end of that paragraph of yours.
Again, not taking sides. Just taking issue with your logic and apparent contradiction.
He is making fun of your use of "your" instead of "You're"
You meant "You're oblivious" but wrote "your oblivious". He is asking about what his oblivious is as he is pretending to be confused, as he does not have an item/object with the name oblivious.
Again, his response had nothing to do with your intended message. But simply playing along your mistype to make fun of it.
Which I also why you got the response "Wooosh" when you actually replied to him with the actual debate content in mind because you missed the point that he was making fun of your typo and he was not really debating your intended message.
Wow some people need to grow up here....
But as for the discussion, there's 3 main DRAM makers right? Well DRAM is pretty much a commodity market, which means normally profit margins are *usually* razor thin. It is possible, but seems unlikely that all 3 are colluding to keep supply low. More likely there was just a large increase in demand and or better business case uses for the fab plants to produce other widgets that make more money....if all 3 companies decided to shift thier product output nearly at the same time that would cause supply to drop 3x more than even they anticipated. If all those occurred (3 fabs shifted output and demand grew unexpectedly) it's easy to see how we have this situation. I'm not an expert in the fab process but I image it's not an easy shift to change output...(parts lead times, sourcing etc).
Really loved the looks of the new Ryzen 2200 APU for a new HTPC and a build for my mother.
ITX mobo, $99
8GB stick of DDR4, $99..
Feels bad man.
Ram pricing looks so far off....
That Ryzen 2200 APU is probably 100X more complex to design/build than the 8gb stick costing the same price.
Was thinking about retiring my 2500K system after tax refund in April for Ryzen refresh build.
These Ram prices might put me off even longer out of principle.
I remember buying a 16GB kit of kingston DDR3 1600 HyperX for $99.00 AUD in 2013...
This is terrible....
"insert armchair economics mastermind comment".
The PC market sucks right now. Time to find a new hobby.
For those thinking the memory mfgs are artificially limiting capacity growth:
New fabs need to be built, new manufacturers meet to hop in. This sort of demand cannot be ignored.
That said, it's usually 2 to 4 years before a slab of land turns into a functioning silicon fab, so, hold on to your butts...
Baird released a note today estimating PC DRAM contract prices will be 8-10% up this quarter, much higher than anyone previously anticipated (especially as this is the “slow” season).
Makes me even happier that I chose to spend the $100 that 8GB DDR4 would've cost me on PS4 games instead. I've got entertainment for a whiiiiiiiiiiiiile. Much more satisfaction than a stupid stick of RAM.
Sounds pretty soft to me.
More bad news for the consumer; this piece even has NAND ASPs increasing 10% this year, which is the first estimated increase I’ve read about.
Guess I'm confused as to why you keep posting that demand is going up, profits are going up and you already informed us that, the fabs choose to keep profit high by not ramping production.
Price automatically will go up, we have been enlightened to your economics wisdom. There is no other way it can go if all manufacturers agree to only raise production by the minimum they can get away with.
do you need a pat on the back?