From ATI to AMD back to ATI? A Journey in Futility @ [H]

I imagine the main holdup is Intel's Marketing department trying to figure out how to spin the huge performance gain whilst avoiding bringing any positive light to AMD. Parts have been ready for months if leaks are to be believed.
 
razor1 said:
Ryzen isn't helping them much though, this is what I forecasted. Ryzen might look good to end users but in the world of competition, where AMD is coming from behind its not good, they didn't offer anything more than Intel, and that is why I was, and still am negative about Ryzen, they can't be in this position and expect to take on Intel. Now add the woes of RTG in the mix just takes riding the wave for a longer time till it crashes and burns again.

Gross margins are down this past quarter to 33%
R&D only went up 10 million per quarter
net loss 10 million (still in the red)

This means Ryzen wasn't able to take much market share away from Intel, that means OEM's are not pushing AMD as much as they could they aren't giving AMD enough "shelf" space to really make any sort of impact on Intel's consumer market share.

Epyc also falls into this boat too. Pretty much AMD is able to make less net losses by increased margins and a minuscule increase in market share, 1 or 2 %.......

AMD cannot survive with this type of mediocrity. They don't have the money to push R&D in the graphics division and won't get it till at least 2nd or 3rd quarter after Zen + is released, if even then, Zen+ has to be above and beyond Intel's offerings at that point, if not, same old crap will happen again.

AMD is no where near "healthy" and won't be until they can really push Intel and nV. Doesn't need to by much either, 5% over Intel in ever benchmark will do, tie nV is enough. Every benchmark, I mean ever benchmark, gaming to database benchmarks. They can't say oh we are good at one thing and then get hosed in 2 other things.

We will get a better understanding Oct 25th I think it was for their Q3 results, if they don't waver from this, which I don't see they will be much, maybe just go into the black about 10 million? margins up 1% to 2%, that's all I'm expecting.
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https://www.anandtech.com/show/11961/amd-announces-q3-earnings-71m-in-the-black

You were saying about Ryzen...
 
razor1 said:
Hmm 2% margins, covers most of the profits they received ;)

market share wise they didn't get much if any.
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They're in the black first time since forever and by a promising amount. A huge increase over previous quarters. I'd say Ryzen is doing great things for the company.
 
Meeho said:
They're in the black first time since forever and by a promising amount. A huge increase over previous quarters. I'd say Ryzen is doing great things for the company.
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No one gives a shit if its in the black for one quarter (barely), they should have done a hell of lot better then what they showed, did you see Intel's earnings? What you do thing nV's is going to be next month, I would not be surprised if they have another record breaking quarter.

If they were able to make any market penetration they should be well above 71 million in gross profits. That is an easy assessment to make. Not only that what did AMD say about Ryzen's margins? Its going to be almost double that of their current chips...... That didn't show up either. We are seeing single digit gains 1 or 2 % then 1 or 2 % drops every other quarter. Something isn't adding up with all the good news AMD has been having.

Q3 is the strongest PC component quarter by far, and that is all they can muster just breaking into the black. Not good.
 
I don't see what else would be realistic for a company of their size and relative position.
 
Meeho said:
I don't see what else would be realistic for a company of their size and relative position.
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I agree. I'm not saying it should be getting more, but the way AMD presented itself people were expecting more.

Lets see AMD stated they have 40-50% of the DIY market, that is not realistic. Ya know why, back in the days when they had that, they also had 15% of the server market, they were making 2.5 billion a quarter? 15% of the server market is 1.5 billion to 2.0 billion of that. That leaves 500 million left for the DIY market. Where are they right now? No where near that. Not only that they have GPU's now too.
 
razor1 said:
I agree. I'm not saying it should be getting more, but the way AMD presented itself people were expecting more.

Lets see AMD stated they have 40-50% of the DIY market, that is not realistic. Ya know why, back in the days when they had that, they also had 15% of the server market, they were making 2.5 billion a quarter? 15% of the server market is 1.5 billion to 2.0 billion of that. That leaves 500 million left for the DIY market. Where are they right now? No where near that. Not only that they have GPU's now too.
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Well, "AMD presented" is like...yeah...
 
razor1 said:
Hmm 2% margins, covers most of the profits they received ;)

market share wise they didn't get much if any.

5% margins is 200 - 250milion, going from Q2 to Q3, margins went up 2%, that's oh 100-125 million more bucks, yeah no much gain outside of margins.

This is why everyone is wondering if AMD is making any headway in market share.
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Market Share:
  • DIY - UP (Mainstream and HEDT)
  • OEM - A number of OEMs now offer AMD processor desktops - One can conclude sells in this area will increase
  • Mobile - ? (looks promising with new APU)
  • Server - ?
With only one market penetration, DIY, AMD went from Red to Black - that is good. Now we have shipping OEM AMD processor desktops that hit the market and soon mobile. Not to mention servers. So AMD went from red to black in one market. Once the other markets start to take off AMD I would predict will do much better. Intel Coffee Lake only slowed down AMD OEM sells and won't touch the APU mobile market where AMD has a superior CPU/Graphics solution. Higher end mobile I don't see AMD penetrating yet. Server? They should do much better with EPYC since basically they have not been in that market for years.
 
noko said:
Market Share:
  • DIY - UP (Mainstream and HEDT)
  • OEM - A number of OEMs now offer AMD processor desktops - One can conclude sells in this area will increase
  • Mobile - ? (looks promising with new APU)
  • Server - ?
With only one market penetration, DIY, AMD went from Red to Black - that is good. Now we have shipping OEM AMD processor desktops that hit the market and soon mobile. Not to mention servers. So AMD went from red to black in one market. Once the other markets start to take off AMD I would predict will do much better. Intel Coffee Lake only slowed down AMD OEM sells and won't touch the APU mobile market where AMD has a superior CPU/Graphics solution. Higher end mobile I don't see AMD penetrating yet. Server? They should do much better with EPYC since basically they have not been in that market for years.
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They didn't have much OEM penetration back then cause well we know what Intel did lol

Mobile, market really wasn't there it was tiny.

This is the problem, none of what they are said and presented before, really materialized, and just looking at the margins that is pretty much where they got in the black from, its exactly what I predicted, if they get to the black how much is what was going to be telling, if just a little bit that means they made no market share gains. Whats worse is because they have GPU's "polaris" did so well for them, they should be more in the black. Because according to AMD's presentations everything is doing well!

Eypc is not going to help them in the short run, its going to take a year or two to really make any head way into the server market, server market is much more conservative then retail.

They are predicting a hit next Q, the 2nd strongest Q of the year, what is going to happen in Q1 the weakest Q of the year, and Q2 the second weakest Q of year? Q4 looks to be red of they take a 15% sales hit about 50-100 million in the red. Q1, 150-200 million in the red, and Q2 100-150 million in the red? That was the same as before.

That is what people are thinking now. If it happens this way, AMD having a great Q3 next year won't matter it just gets washed way from the other Q's. And this is where gearing and leverage matters, they need to be able to keep going without going into the red. Gearing more, it takes leverage into consideration but also what banks look at when investing or giving out loans.
 
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Razor,

Epyc systems and mainboards are still in their infancy. So we can't expect any serious penetration there.

Theadripper does have Intel scrambling though in the hedt. You can't deny this. And if amd wasn't cutting into Intel, their product launches wouldn't have been rushed.

That said most of the fall profits come from back to school sales where amd didn't have ryzen in Mobile. So it was no wonder they didn't get a boost there.

I see a lot of boutique builders getting AMD chips and tech enthusiast. But that is a small market.

And even though Polaris and Vega were poor performers they are still selling out like hotcakes due to miners. So it doesn't matter as they are selling everyone they have.

I expect the new xbone scorpio and mobile parts will keep them in the black next quarter.
 
DigitalGriffin said:
I expect the new xbone scorpio and mobile parts will keep them in the black next quarter.
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AMD gets the money when the console makers buy the chips so the holiday season payments were made this Q3. Tbh, I would expect not a lot of money from mobile. AMD seems to have screwed up, Ryzen Mobile wont get under way until 2018. If they starting rolling the ball Q3, yeah, there would be money but not this late.
 
DigitalGriffin said:
Razor,

Epyc systems and mainboards are still in their infancy. So we can't expect any serious penetration there.

Theadripper does have Intel scrambling though in the hedt. You can't deny this. And if amd wasn't cutting into Intel, their product launches wouldn't have been rushed.

That said most of the fall profits come from back to school sales where amd didn't have ryzen in Mobile. So it was no wonder they didn't get a boost there.

I see a lot of boutique builders getting AMD chips and tech enthusiast. But that is a small market.

And even though Polaris and Vega were poor performers they are still selling out like hotcakes due to miners. So it doesn't matter as they are selling everyone they have.

I expect the new xbone scorpio and mobile parts will keep them in the black next quarter.
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Well according to Intel's projections for next quarter. They are expecting no drop from this Q man and this coming Q is a weaker Q, as much as AMD wants to try to show they can take something from Intel, its not going to happen anytime soon.

Against nV yeah don't think its happen there either. Will see about that Nov 9, when nV gives out there Q3 results and Q4 projections.

Xbone not going to help AMD, AMD already factored that in this quarter, they are actually saying they will sell less consoles next quarter which doesn't jive with the 35% margins for next quarter either, cause if they are selling less consoles that should increase margins not stay the same.

Too many things AMD has stated that don't line up with what should happen.

I think they got caught with their pants down and there is no way to explain it without a major windfall. So that is why they left so many vague statements in this conference call. And people picked up on them.

The whole mining thing, where the hell are they making money on these products?

Vega is not a mining card, it will never be highly sought after, ETH even with its Byzantium patch just makes all cards faster at mining by 30%, still have power to look into. Polaris is decent,not as good as 1070 the only reason they are worth it is because of initial prices, but with 1 year of mining, that 70 bucks its worth it to go to 1070's. 1 year of power savings easily covers that. More than 3 times actually. Polaris popularity for mining has dropped. 1070's probably will to cause of the 1070ti. But still I don't expect much better perf/watt over the current 1070.
 
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razor1 said:
Xbone not going to help AMD, AMD already factored that in this quarter, they are actually saying they will sell less consoles next quarter which doesn't jive with the 35% margins for next quarter either, cause if they are selling less consoles that should increase margins not stay the same.
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They had their mystery IP deal which inflated their GM this past quarter and is likely a one time profit, so the same GM this quarter is probably a bump up from what it really should have been.
 
Tyns said:
They had their mystery IP deal which inflated their GM this past quarter and is likely a one time profit, so the same GM this quarter is probably a bump up from what it really should have been.
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Atari?
 
Tyns said:
They didn't specify with whom or what IP, hence "mystery", but Su says more such deals are coming. To me, it seems like quick cash in the near term but selling yourself out over the long term.
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Lottery machines probably or something similar.
 
I want to remind anyone thinking of or already invested in AMD that Lisa Su stated in May (I think) that they expect their 2020 earnings to be $0.75/share which would equate to about a $15 share price at Intel's multiple (~20 PE). Know what you own if you want to or have bought AMD shares; there's more involved than liking their products.
 
razor1 said:
Hmm 2% margins, covers most of the profits they received ;)

market share wise they didn't get much if any.

5% margins is 200 - 250milion, going from Q2 to Q3, margins went up 2%, that's oh 100-125 million more bucks, yeah no much gain outside of margins.

This is why everyone is wondering if AMD is making any headway in market share.
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And that is why Lisa Su avoided to give us any real worldwide marketshare numbers. On the other hand several indicators show how AMD starts to loose marketshare

https://www.cpubenchmark.net/market_share.html
 
I seriously doubt their market share even changed, I think that graph just shows the enthusiasm for people that got Ryzen to benchmark their systems lol.
 
Meeho said:
They're in the black first time since forever and by a promising amount. A huge increase over previous quarters. I'd say Ryzen is doing great things for the company.
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And the best is still to come, with expected huge reduction in sales/revenue for next quarter.

I also love those financial engineering 'tricks' of the large corporations. Next time I have a debt of 1000€, spend another 150€ and receive 200€, I will ignore the debt and will claim I am 50€ in the black. :rolleyes:
 
DigitalGriffin said:
Theadripper does have Intel scrambling though in the hedt. You can't deny this. And if amd wasn't cutting into Intel, their product launches wouldn't have been rushed.
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The other day I was looking for another data and found number of people purchased 16C TR and people purchased SKL 16C. More people purchased Skylake, despite it launched latter. Then I was checking popular sales in certain worldwide e-store and one TR model was among three first slots, surrounded by a pair of RyZen chips, with rest of popularity slots filled by SKL chips from 6C up to 18C.

I am rather convinced that Theadripper has made more noise and headlines than real worldwide sales.
 
juanrga said:
And the best is still to come, with expected huge reduction in sales/revenue for next quarter.

I also love those financial engineering 'tricks' of the large corporations. Next time I have a debt of 1000€, spend another 150€ and receive 200€, I will ignore the debt and will claim I am 50€ in the black. :rolleyes:
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lol from my own point of view thats malarkey....There has to be plenty of people like me who would have grabbed a new gpu at msrp had they not been sold out. A lot of us getting closer an closer to needing all new set ups as well.
 
primetime said:
lol from my own point of view thats malarkey....There has to be plenty of people like me who would have grabbed a new gpu at msrp had they not been sold out. A lot of us getting closer an closer to needing all new set ups as well.
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Its what AMD is saying about its own sales next quarter......

For what ever reason they are going to drop 15% in total sales volume.
 
razor1 said:
Its what AMD is saying about its own sales next quarter......

For what ever reason they are going to drop 15% in total sales volume.
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small nitpick, 15% revenue drop. I mean yes, most of it is "sales" but there are other considerations, would you call a patent license agreement a sale, etc.
 
gigaxtreme1 said:
The business is cyclical. Intel forecasts a 22% drop in client rev for fourth quarter
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I don't remember them saying that..... I do remember their gross profits were to be up to 16.3 billion for Q4 which is higher than Q3 by .2 billion.

Well what ever it is, this really remembers me of the time when AMD put their GPU and CPU revenue under one umbrella, so there is no damn viability on the different units.

No one outside of AMD knows what is making money for them and everything they say is all rosey.
 
Fact is, RTG is still here and not dragging AMD down into the red. :) We will have to see what happens, going forward but, the fact that AMD is producing competitive products at all is a sign of good things to come for all of us. :D
 
ManofGod said:
Fact is, RTG is still here and not dragging AMD down into the red. :) We will have to see what happens, going forward but, the fact that AMD is producing competitive products at all is a sign of good things to come for all of us. :D
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Yeah its not just RTG, its all of AMD, we will see that in the next 3 Q's lots of red.

They aren't competitive that is the problem, that is why they aren't showing on the bottom line what AMD has been saying in the past Q's and its got Investors spooked, cause if AMD is doing well, it has to be hurting Intel or nV, but those two guys are doing better then usual. These are saturated and mature markets, so if one of the two companies do well the other has to be hurt. I even stated this when Ryzen came out, if they can't compete on all fronts, they will have problems, they aren't as good as old Intel products when it came to games at that time, with CFL they aren't good enough to match it with 8 cores vs 6 cores in pretty much everything, multi threaded apps similar performance and single threaded apps Intel wins. Then you have 4 core vs 4 core on the lower end CPU's forget about it.

RTG, we all know where Vega stands.

Epyc has a big gaping hole in it with certain server needs.

These things aren't overlooked, AMD priced their parts accordingly, but price isn't what matters in the server market not for the CPU price its tiny.
 
It loses 50% or more performance during anything that needs data locality. All Zen products have this problem, but because Eypc has ever more modules, its worse for it.

The more distributed the data is over a single or multiple data base, and quarries are based off of many different databases for transaction servers. Its not something that can be fixed by code easily.

The only way to fix it in code is to have a point to point system where a quarry finishes and caches then starts its next thing to do on the list. Currently databases are programmed that way its actually quite the opposite, numa code for large databases allows for massively distributed quarries.

So larger the database or more nodes multiple databases needs are, the worse Eypc will perform without a complete rewrite of the database and how the quarries are handled.
 
razor1 said:
It loses 50% or more performance during anything that needs data locality. All Zen products have this problem, but because Eypc has ever more modules, its worse for it.

The more distributed the data is over a single or multiple data base, and quarries are based off of many different databases for transaction servers. Its not something that can be fixed by code easily.

The only way to fix it in code is to have a point to point system where a quarry finishes and caches then starts its next thing to do on the list. Currently databases are programmed that way its actually quite the opposite, numa code for large databases allows for massively distributed quarries.

So larger the database or more nodes multiple databases needs are, the worse Eypc will perform without a complete rewrite of the database and how the quarries are handled.
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BS. You got a single link to anything you are rambling on about? You are starting to sound like shintai and juanrga, that aint a good thing. Every Review for any of AMDs CPU stack do not reflect this doom and gloom horseshit you keep spouting. Actually TR has been getting the nod over Intel in many a review. EPYC too has gotten extremely positive reviews. Ryzen originally had positives even on an immature platform, when considering price of CPUs or even adding platform costs Ryzen is a huge win. Discrepancies in performance between a 6 to 8 core mean little to the common consumer the Ryzen platform is geared toward.
 
JustReason said:
BS. You got a single link to anything you are rambling on about? You are starting to sound like shintai and juanrga, that aint a good thing. Every Review for any of AMDs CPU stack do not reflect this doom and gloom horseshit you keep spouting. Actually TR has been getting the nod over Intel in many a review. EPYC too has gotten extremely positive reviews. Ryzen originally had positives even on an immature platform, when considering price of CPUs or even adding platform costs Ryzen is a huge win. Discrepancies in performance between a 6 to 8 core mean little to the common consumer the Ryzen platform is geared toward.
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Look at Anandtech's preview, they showed it right there. LOL forgot about that?

https://www.anandtech.com/show/11544/intel-skylake-ep-vs-amd-epyc-7000-cpu-battle-of-the-decade/18

I called it even before Eypc was released, its common sense if you know anything about database programming and how NUMA works.

Ryzen has huge issues with data locality. Eypc even worse. I know exactly how to program around it. But can't do that with older programs. Need updates, and bigger the database the worse/harder, performance and difficulty in fixing its going to be.

This is not BS, its well know where the problem is!
 
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