Ford Exec: You Won’t Be Able to Buy a Driverless Car until after 2025

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, Apr 9, 2017.

  1. Megalith

    Megalith 24-bit/48kHz Staff Member

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    According to Ford, consumers will have to wait until at least 2026 to buy a fully autonomous vehicle despite the expectation that ride-sharing services will have access to this technology years in advance. When Ford talks about this stuff, I guess people should listen, since they supposedly lead the pack in autonomous development.

    Ford had already admitted that individual consumers would have to wait several years for autonomous car technology to come their way. Previous comments from CEO Mark Fields had suggested a 2025 rollout of robot cars for personal use. Ford’s autonomous vehicles will not include a steering wheel or pedals and will reach Level 4 autonomy as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. This is one step below Level 5, which offers complete autonomy in every conceivable driving situation.
     
  2. Spire3660

    Spire3660 [H]ard|Gawd

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    Translation: We cant do it, so no one else can.
     
  3. M76

    M76 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Rather:

    We're behind schedule on our project, we must stall.

    But also they're not talking about autonomous cars they're talking driverless cars. Which is slightly different because those doesn't even have the option to drive them manually.

    I think having autonomy just on highways would already go a long way in reducing the number of accidents and improving traffic throughput of bottleneck roads.
     
  4. EODetroit

    EODetroit [H]ard|Gawd

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    Elon Musk tweet storm in 3... 2... 1...
     
  5. Incarnate

    Incarnate n00b

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    1. Who said that Ford said that nobody else could do it?
    2. Who said they are behind schedule?

    They will initially be sold to ride sharing companies because the costs will be too high to sell to individual consumers.
     
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  6. M76

    M76 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Lighten up FFS. It was a light-hearted pun at their expense I assume on both of our parts.

    The cost of making it isn't high BTW. Computer vision have come a long way in the past few years. According to Tesla all of their cars have all the equipment for fully autonomous driving, the only thing still lacking is the software. But it only has R&D cost, replicating it will cost nothing.
    Sure at first they might try to sell it as a premium feature with a huge price tag, but once the technology becomes market ready it will cost next to nothing to put into any new car. And by new car I mean newly designed car that is made with it in mind.
     
  7. Tsumi

    Tsumi [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I would prefer a car that has a steering wheel and pedals that can go autonomous when I want it to. Like presumably Tesla vehicles after the autonomous software update.
     
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  8. griffinhart

    griffinhart [H]ard|Gawd

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    It's not as close as Tesla and Musk would like to believe. The problem continues to be the issues they still have in bad weather. Cameras are mostly useless in bad weather and the radar and other sensors are very limited in winter weather conditions. At this point, Ford has the most experience in snow covered roads. Most other autonomous car testing have been in conditions no worse than rain, and even those are still challenged in heavy rain.

    I can easily believe 10 years. Musk's claim of this summer seems to be way over optimistic to me.
     
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  9. Incarnate

    Incarnate n00b

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    The cost is extremely high. That R&D that you mentioned? Multiple companies are spending billions upon billions of dollars each trying to work on the software, AND the hardware (no matter what Musk says). They have to make up those billions somehow, and that somehow will be selling cars to ride sharing services where they can sell the cars for a high amount because the ride sharing companies will still be able to make a profit. (or buying or starting their own ride sharing services)

    That's why sales to individual consumers will come a few years later. Maybe I'll put it in terms people on [H] will understand. The new GTX 1080 Ti sells for $700. Early adopters are paying a premium to help recoup the R&D costs. Next year when something new comes along, you'll be able to pick that thing up for $350.
     
  10. chenw

    chenw 2[H]4U

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    I'd wager it isn't safe enough to be mainstream until then anyway. Still got kinks to work out.
     
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  11. M76

    M76 [H]ardForum Junkie

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    I didn't say R&D costs weren't much I was saying that R&D costs are irrelevant when it comes to replicating the technology after the R&D is finished. Early adopters will pay the price but the technology itself for automated driving won't be prohibitively expensive. You're preaching to the choir.
     
  12. Gavv

    Gavv [H]ardForum Junkie

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    Can't wait. That's just around the corner.

    Better safety. Hopefully the reduction of dickhole drivers.
     
  13. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

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    What? they are going to ask for regulation to prevent it?
     
  14. oldmanbal

    oldmanbal [H]ard|Gawd

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    And you won't be able to buy any Ford after 2026 either keke
     
  15. EvilWays

    EvilWays [H]ard|Gawd

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    Were we not warned about self-driving cars in the 1990s?
     
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  16. thejokker

    thejokker Gawd

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    I think it will be even longer. In addition to the technological problems there are social problems nobody is considering. I don't think all the taxi drivers, bus drivers and truck drivers are going to simply accept losing their jobs to "buggy" software controlled cars. Every accident and fatality will be magnified a hundred times by the lower classes who are losing their jobs.

    Remember the hostile reaction to Google-Glasses by the unwashed masses? Early adapters of autonomous cars are liable to have their expensive cars "keyed" on a regular basis and many may also be physically assaulted by drivers displaced by autonomous cars. I suspect some will even be murdered. The issue is far more complex than simply developing the technology. This could be a revolutionary technology in more than one way.
     
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  17. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

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    >Ford’s autonomous vehicles will not include a steering wheel or pedals and will reach Level 4 autonomy as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. This is one step below Level 5, which offers complete autonomy in every conceivable driving situation.

    ok, if you have no steering wheel or petals, just what else can you do to control the car?

    also, I think it will be interesting to see how insurance and liability plays out with such vehicles. if the person inside the car is not in control, but the car is, then when an accident does happen, who is at fault? and how is that going to affect the cost of insurance. what i mean is, when i am driving a car and get into an accident, i can be found at fault and liable, hence the need for insurance. But if i am never in control of the car WHY?? should i have to pay for insurance on something that can never be my fault?
     
  18. PaulP

    PaulP Gawd

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    Not only this, but what about licensing? Currently the state test drivers to make sure they are qualified to drive. Putting aside the fact that they suck at it, what about self-driving cars? Are they going to come up with standards for certifying the software and hardware used? It seems to me that would not be workable if there are 50 different certification tests, one for each state. So now you need the 50 states to agree on a common set of standards, which will require the Federal Government to step in since the individual states could never agree on anything that complicated. How much time will all that take? I think 8 years is very optimistic.
     
  19. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

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    LOL.. and here i thought i was drinking early today

    but seriously, its another very valid point, and i wonder if not the basis for fords claim of general joe public not being able to get a hold of one till 2025. he wasnt talking tech, but red tape
     
  20. nutzo

    nutzo [H]ardness Supreme

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    You pay for home owners insurance in case someone sues you because they fell and hurt themselves on your property, even tough it isn't your fault.
    Insurance would likely be priced based on the car model/brand and how many accidents they are in.
    If someone build a car the avoids almost ever accident, the insurance should be cheaper.
     
  21. HeavensCloud

    HeavensCloud Oswego, not shitty as Buffalo

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    They can wait until I'm dead and gone as far as I'm concerned.
     
  22. Dunnlang

    Dunnlang Limp Gawd

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    I think that proper DOT and NHTSA regulations could take a decade to iron out. That would even be after the technology is more mature.

    Manufacturers have a tremendous amount of work to do in standardizing their various systems. Just as turn signals, ground clearance, headlights, etc. are all regulated and standardized.
     
  23. Private_Ops

    Private_Ops [H]ard|Gawd

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    Driverless car's are the least of my concerns. Rising cost of living and the rising price of vehicles are more relevant.