Ford Exec: You Won’t Be Able to Buy a Driverless Car until after 2025

Megalith

24-bit/48kHz
Staff member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
13,004
According to Ford, consumers will have to wait until at least 2026 to buy a fully autonomous vehicle despite the expectation that ride-sharing services will have access to this technology years in advance. When Ford talks about this stuff, I guess people should listen, since they supposedly lead the pack in autonomous development.

Ford had already admitted that individual consumers would have to wait several years for autonomous car technology to come their way. Previous comments from CEO Mark Fields had suggested a 2025 rollout of robot cars for personal use. Ford’s autonomous vehicles will not include a steering wheel or pedals and will reach Level 4 autonomy as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. This is one step below Level 5, which offers complete autonomy in every conceivable driving situation.
 

M76

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jun 12, 2012
Messages
10,693
Translation: We cant do it, so no one else can.
Rather:

We're behind schedule on our project, we must stall.

But also they're not talking about autonomous cars they're talking driverless cars. Which is slightly different because those doesn't even have the option to drive them manually.

I think having autonomy just on highways would already go a long way in reducing the number of accidents and improving traffic throughput of bottleneck roads.
 

Incarnate

n00b
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
2
Rather:

We're behind schedule on our project, we must stall.

But also they're not talking about autonomous cars they're talking driverless cars. Which is slightly different because those doesn't even have the option to drive them manually.

I think having autonomy just on highways would already go a long way in reducing the number of accidents and improving traffic throughput of bottleneck roads.
1. Who said that Ford said that nobody else could do it?
2. Who said they are behind schedule?

They will initially be sold to ride sharing companies because the costs will be too high to sell to individual consumers.
 

M76

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jun 12, 2012
Messages
10,693
1. Who said that Ford said that nobody else could do it?
2. Who said they are behind schedule?

They will initially be sold to ride sharing companies because the costs will be too high to sell to individual consumers.
Lighten up FFS. It was a light-hearted pun at their expense I assume on both of our parts.

The cost of making it isn't high BTW. Computer vision have come a long way in the past few years. According to Tesla all of their cars have all the equipment for fully autonomous driving, the only thing still lacking is the software. But it only has R&D cost, replicating it will cost nothing.
Sure at first they might try to sell it as a premium feature with a huge price tag, but once the technology becomes market ready it will cost next to nothing to put into any new car. And by new car I mean newly designed car that is made with it in mind.
 

Tsumi

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Mar 18, 2010
Messages
13,345
I would prefer a car that has a steering wheel and pedals that can go autonomous when I want it to. Like presumably Tesla vehicles after the autonomous software update.
 

griffinhart

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 3, 2005
Messages
1,294
Lighten up FFS. It was a light-hearted pun at their expense I assume on both of our parts.

The cost of making it isn't high BTW. Computer vision have come a long way in the past few years. According to Tesla all of their cars have all the equipment for fully autonomous driving, the only thing still lacking is the software. But it only has R&D cost, replicating it will cost nothing.
Sure at first they might try to sell it as a premium feature with a huge price tag, but once the technology becomes market ready it will cost next to nothing to put into any new car. And by new car I mean newly designed car that is made with it in mind.
It's not as close as Tesla and Musk would like to believe. The problem continues to be the issues they still have in bad weather. Cameras are mostly useless in bad weather and the radar and other sensors are very limited in winter weather conditions. At this point, Ford has the most experience in snow covered roads. Most other autonomous car testing have been in conditions no worse than rain, and even those are still challenged in heavy rain.

I can easily believe 10 years. Musk's claim of this summer seems to be way over optimistic to me.
 

Incarnate

n00b
Joined
Apr 9, 2017
Messages
2
Lighten up FFS. It was a light-hearted pun at their expense I assume on both of our parts.

The cost of making it isn't high BTW. Computer vision have come a long way in the past few years. According to Tesla all of their cars have all the equipment for fully autonomous driving, the only thing still lacking is the software. But it only has R&D cost, replicating it will cost nothing.
Sure at first they might try to sell it as a premium feature with a huge price tag, but once the technology becomes market ready it will cost next to nothing to put into any new car. And by new car I mean newly designed car that is made with it in mind.
The cost is extremely high. That R&D that you mentioned? Multiple companies are spending billions upon billions of dollars each trying to work on the software, AND the hardware (no matter what Musk says). They have to make up those billions somehow, and that somehow will be selling cars to ride sharing services where they can sell the cars for a high amount because the ride sharing companies will still be able to make a profit. (or buying or starting their own ride sharing services)

That's why sales to individual consumers will come a few years later. Maybe I'll put it in terms people on [H] will understand. The new GTX 1080 Ti sells for $700. Early adopters are paying a premium to help recoup the R&D costs. Next year when something new comes along, you'll be able to pick that thing up for $350.
 

chenw

2[H]4U
Joined
Oct 26, 2014
Messages
3,977
I'd wager it isn't safe enough to be mainstream until then anyway. Still got kinks to work out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gavv
like this

M76

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jun 12, 2012
Messages
10,693
The cost is extremely high. That R&D that you mentioned? Multiple companies are spending billions upon billions of dollars each trying to work on the software, AND the hardware (no matter what Musk says). They have to make up those billions somehow, and that somehow will be selling cars to ride sharing services where they can sell the cars for a high amount because the ride sharing companies will still be able to make a profit. (or buying or starting their own ride sharing services)

That's why sales to individual consumers will come a few years later. Maybe I'll put it in terms people on [H] will understand. The new GTX 1080 Ti sells for $700. Early adopters are paying a premium to help recoup the R&D costs. Next year when something new comes along, you'll be able to pick that thing up for $350.
I didn't say R&D costs weren't much I was saying that R&D costs are irrelevant when it comes to replicating the technology after the R&D is finished. Early adopters will pay the price but the technology itself for automated driving won't be prohibitively expensive. You're preaching to the choir.
 

Gavv

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Dec 4, 2005
Messages
10,906
Can't wait. That's just around the corner.

Better safety. Hopefully the reduction of dickhole drivers.
 

thejokker

Gawd
Joined
Mar 16, 2005
Messages
825
It's not as close as Tesla and Musk would like to believe. The problem continues to be the issues they still have in bad weather. Cameras are mostly useless in bad weather and the radar and other sensors are very limited in winter weather conditions. At this point, Ford has the most experience in snow covered roads. Most other autonomous car testing have been in conditions no worse than rain, and even those are still challenged in heavy rain.

I can easily believe 10 years. Musk's claim of this summer seems to be way over optimistic to me.
I think it will be even longer. In addition to the technological problems there are social problems nobody is considering. I don't think all the taxi drivers, bus drivers and truck drivers are going to simply accept losing their jobs to "buggy" software controlled cars. Every accident and fatality will be magnified a hundred times by the lower classes who are losing their jobs.

Remember the hostile reaction to Google-Glasses by the unwashed masses? Early adapters of autonomous cars are liable to have their expensive cars "keyed" on a regular basis and many may also be physically assaulted by drivers displaced by autonomous cars. I suspect some will even be murdered. The issue is far more complex than simply developing the technology. This could be a revolutionary technology in more than one way.
 

katanaD

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 15, 2016
Messages
1,987
>Ford’s autonomous vehicles will not include a steering wheel or pedals and will reach Level 4 autonomy as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. This is one step below Level 5, which offers complete autonomy in every conceivable driving situation.

ok, if you have no steering wheel or petals, just what else can you do to control the car?

also, I think it will be interesting to see how insurance and liability plays out with such vehicles. if the person inside the car is not in control, but the car is, then when an accident does happen, who is at fault? and how is that going to affect the cost of insurance. what i mean is, when i am driving a car and get into an accident, i can be found at fault and liable, hence the need for insurance. But if i am never in control of the car WHY?? should i have to pay for insurance on something that can never be my fault?
 

PaulP

Gawd
Joined
Oct 31, 2016
Messages
776
>Ford’s autonomous vehicles will not include a steering wheel or pedals and will reach Level 4 autonomy as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers. This is one step below Level 5, which offers complete autonomy in every conceivable driving situation.

ok, if you have no steering wheel or petals, just what else can you do to control the car?

also, I think it will be interesting to see how insurance and liability plays out with such vehicles. if the person inside the car is not in control, but the car is, then when an accident does happen, who is at fault? and how is that going to affect the cost of insurance. what i mean is, when i am driving a car and get into an accident, i can be found at fault and liable, hence the need for insurance. But if i am never in control of the car WHY?? should i have to pay for insurance on something that can never be my fault?
Not only this, but what about licensing? Currently the state test drivers to make sure they are qualified to drive. Putting aside the fact that they suck at it, what about self-driving cars? Are they going to come up with standards for certifying the software and hardware used? It seems to me that would not be workable if there are 50 different certification tests, one for each state. So now you need the 50 states to agree on a common set of standards, which will require the Federal Government to step in since the individual states could never agree on anything that complicated. How much time will all that take? I think 8 years is very optimistic.
 

katanaD

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 15, 2016
Messages
1,987
So now you need the 50 states to agree on a common set of standards
LOL.. and here i thought i was drinking early today

but seriously, its another very valid point, and i wonder if not the basis for fords claim of general joe public not being able to get a hold of one till 2025. he wasnt talking tech, but red tape
 

nutzo

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
7,380
>should i have to pay for insurance on something that can never be my fault?
You pay for home owners insurance in case someone sues you because they fell and hurt themselves on your property, even tough it isn't your fault.
Insurance would likely be priced based on the car model/brand and how many accidents they are in.
If someone build a car the avoids almost ever accident, the insurance should be cheaper.
 

Dunnlang

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 6, 2012
Messages
200
I think that proper DOT and NHTSA regulations could take a decade to iron out. That would even be after the technology is more mature.

Manufacturers have a tremendous amount of work to do in standardizing their various systems. Just as turn signals, ground clearance, headlights, etc. are all regulated and standardized.
 

Private_Ops

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Jun 4, 2007
Messages
1,862
Driverless car's are the least of my concerns. Rising cost of living and the rising price of vehicles are more relevant.
 
Top