Elon Musk Updates Timeline for Self-Driving Car

[Megalith]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk updated his timeline prediction for a fully self-driving car to two years. He also predicts that another year after that, cars will be significantly better drivers than humans. Almost exactly two years ago, Musk predicted that autonomous driving would be ready in two years, though he emphasized that it wouldn’t necessarily be commercialized due to regulation.

It does appear that his predictions are now pushing further out, which may reflect some issues Tesla has had with its self-driving program over the last two years, the main issue being the transition from Mobileye to Tesla’s own computer vision technology in Autopilot 2.0. There has also been some turnover in the computer vision/AI lead role at Tesla.

 

[Jim Kim]

So we're still talking 5-10 years.

 

[mullet]

With out subsidies 10-20 years.

 

[_l_]

With out subsidies 10-20 years.

excellent, because I love to drive (I drive a standard shift). When I take my car to the dealership for maintenance the techs come over to check out the standard shift. Seems a rarity anymore. I can't imagine what "non-self driving" car insurance will cost 20 years from now once self-drives are the norm. At that point if you cause an accident the lawyers will eat you for lunch ...

 

[travisty]

excellent, because I love to drive (I drive a standard shift). When I take my car to the dealership for maintenance the techs come over to check out the standard shift. Seems a rarity anymore. I can't imagine what "non-self driving" car insurance will cost 20 years from now once self-drives are the norm. At that point if you cause an accident the lawyers will eat you for lunch ...

Tesla is battling with Ford, GM, Waymo, uber, VW, BMW, and many more for automated fleets. Tesla's falling behind at this point.
Over the next 5 years or so there will be massive layoffs of truck drivers as trucks become autonomous. Same with taxi/uber drivers.
In a 10 year timeframe people will start to choose to not own a car as it's cheaper to pay fairs to have vehicles pick people up and drive them places compared to buying, maintaining, insurance costs.

There will be a point where it will be against the law to manually drive a vehicle.

 

[sfsuphysics]

Hurry up and make the test beds be the freeways of this country, not long highways between regions, not city streets. Make it areas where pedestrians don't exist, and it actually has a chance to be useful in something other than someone sleeping on their way to a destination. Remove people from the equation of driving on crowded freeways and traffic issues literally go away.