Elon Musk Tesla Model 3 Production Is Months Behind Schedule

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by DooKey, Nov 2, 2017.

  1. DooKey

    DooKey [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    8,105
    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2001
    It looks like Tesla has run into a snag in the production of the new Model 3. Musk had initially predicted the Model 3 production line would be producing 5K cars per week by the end of 2017. He was wrong. Now it's going to be March 2018. Over 400K customers paid $1000 to go on a waiting list for the car and I'm sure they aren't happy about this delay. Supposedly an outside supplier for part of the battery assembly dropped the ball. Anyway, if you dropped your cash to get a Model 3 you're going to have to wait a bit longer.

    “They are making some big promises, and they need to show a path to get there,” says R. A. Farrokhnia, a business and engineering professor at Columbia University. The car business is notoriously tough, but building just a few cars, reportedly by hand, is not enough.
     
  2. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,270
    Joined:
    May 27, 2001
    Surprised is nobody(except tesla fanboi's)
     
  3. rudedog

    rudedog Gawd

    Messages:
    757
    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2004
    I guess all those layoffs had nothing to do with it either.....
     
  4. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,124
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    3 month is nothing.. if they get it together very impressive. I think he was over confident, i mean obviously really.
    Don't get what people want.. magic? car making is a resource-intensive and complex industry, Tesla is ramping up to become a mayor manufacturer.. And the largest lithium battery producer Yeah, the shorter conspiracy is real.
     
  5. kirbyrj

    kirbyrj [H]ard as it Gets

    Messages:
    24,484
    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2005
    Blown 89 likes this.
  6. sfsuphysics

    sfsuphysics I don't get it

    Messages:
    13,694
    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2007
    He's a fraud because he uses what the government is giving out? Yeah guess you better tell all those Tesla's driving around and all those satellites in orbit that they're not real.
     
  7. ZenDragon

    ZenDragon [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,696
    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2000
    And this is different than every other billion dollar company how? Microsoft, Apple, IBM, Intel, just to name a few tech companies, lets not even start with companies like Honeywell, Boeing, the obvious ones, even car companies like GM. They all attribute a sizable portion of their profit to government contracts. Personally I'd rather see government subsidies going back into a company that is directly benefiting humanity rather than building more over hyped fighter jets.
     
    The Lamb, RayderR6, scan13 and 7 others like this.
  8. John Ransom

    John Ransom n00b

    Messages:
    58
    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2017
    while i'm not a fan of the tax subsidizes, I don't think he's a fraud. He is trying to do what most people who become uber wealthy do, over promise and over deliver. He's just failing at it. Fraud implies intent and deception and i don't think that really applies. I think he is simply failing. Will he recover? maybe. He did with spaceX (which almost failed) , which is the greatest single thing serving Americans i can think of outside of amazon. That being said, he would be out of business if it wasn't for the subsidizing outside of spacex. But as guy above me posted, we live in corporate socialism, it all needs to be cut and your directing your ire at the wrong place, Someone tries to hand your money your not going to say no. Whole dog or hand thing. I don't see Tesla surviving without several massive changes including moving its production plants.
     
  9. Semantics

    Semantics 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,805
    Joined:
    May 18, 2010
    Talk to the people who were fired outside suppliers were a minimal issue comparably with the production of the model 3, typical corporate blame everyone but your own shortcomings. They'll be lucky to hit 100th of their promised production atm
     
    LightsOut41 likes this.
  10. sfsuphysics

    sfsuphysics I don't get it

    Messages:
    13,694
    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2007
    Way back in 2006 I gave a dealership $500 to "hold my spot" on a list for a Toyota Prius, at the time they were in high demand in California with them getting exemptions to be in the car pool lanes. At another dealership they weren't so dickish and had a list that didn't require any down payment, a few weeks later and I got my car from the dealer that didn't require a down payment, and got my $500 back from the other dealer. The money wasn't to actually buy the car but more of a "good faith" reservation amount that you could always get back just so people don't put themselves on lists if they aren't serious about buying (yeah that dealership was quite the dick).

    Overall I fucking blame Apple, they created a generation of people who need their shiny new gadgets the absolutely first day they are available because fuck everything else NEED SHINY!!!! Meanwhile I'm sure there are quite a few people who forked over their $1000 who are like "whatever man, it's a car, when it's done it's done, meanwhile I'll still drive what I have"
     
    Armenius likes this.
  11. travisty

    travisty Gawd

    Messages:
    815
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2016
    I'm one of the "fanboi's" with the $1000 down for one of these. Mad? Not at all. Based off the past initial production's always been slower than promised. This was expected.
     
    The Lamb and Uvaman2 like this.
  12. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,124
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    True... Don't get the absurd attitude that lifting a mayor Industry is like pissing in a pot.
     
  13. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,124
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    travisty likes this.
  14. jcollett69

    jcollett69 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    139
    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2016
    Fortune had an article about this today. Based upon current orders compared to actual deliveries so far, it will take 50 YEARS to complete all deliveries! I can assume there will be more ramping up of production, but can this un-tested company become more than its current niche position? Time will tell. I root for them, but I'll continue to buy from manufacturers that can deliver on time and can correct issues promptly down the line. Are we sure Tesla would be able to overcome an issue like the Takada airbag fiasco plaguing companies like Honda?
     
    thejokker likes this.
  15. capt_cope

    capt_cope Gawd

    Messages:
    917
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2009
    Overconfident? The guy is clearly delusional. Didn't he claim they'd be producing 20,000 model 3s per month by the end of 2017? And "ramping up to become a major manufacturer"... Tesla has been around for 14 years, if they were going to get their shit together I think it would have happened a long time ago. Yeah, sure, he's got great ideas. Color me not impressed, ideas are worthless, it's the execution that counts.
     
  16. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,987
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2016
    FTA

    The feeble numbers can be traced back to the Nevada Gigafactory where Tesla builds batteries for the cars. An outside supplier responsible for part of the process of assembling batteries into modules, into packs, "dropped the ball," Musk says, and Tesla was forced to take the work in-house. "We had to rewrite all of the software from scratch and redo many of the mechanical and electrical elements," he says. "This is what I’ve spent many a late night at the gigafactory working on."

    What surprises me is thats what i thought the giga factory was all about. making the batteries from scratch on site. I wonder if that wasnt the goal, but then they reached out to an outside vendor to help get things going.. and it bit them in the ass
     
  17. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,124
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Shorter!
    Hehe
    14 years growing and growing... Basically reshaping the car industry.
     
  18. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

    Messages:
    28,446
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2000
    14 years is nothing in the auto business.

    The concept of continuous improvement and learning over time means that small tweaks and improvements compound over time much like how compound interest works. This is why it was - before Tesla came around - widely considered completely impossible to break into large volume auto manufacturing. There simply was too steep of a barrier to entry with the compounded continuous improvements in place with existing manufactures.

    When Tesla first announced their plans to move into volume manufacturing years ago, I thought "yeah right, that will never happen. No one has done this in decades. The last two to try (Delorean in the 80's and Tucker in the 50's) failed spectacularly. This will never happen."


    I'm actually pretty impressed with Tesla's success rate. They have set wildly ambitious goals that were to many analysts completely impossible, and yes, they have missed them, but only in the margins. A few months one way or the other is a footnote given the scale of what they are trying to do.

    Tesla's performance to date in breaking int the auto industry is not one of "not getting their shit together", it is one of shocking success in doing something previously thought to be completely impossible, and they have beaten ALL rational expectations.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2017
  19. runudownquick

    runudownquick Gawd

    Messages:
    831
    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    I love seeing quotes like these since 99% of the time the person that wrote it won't come back to back up their claim/take flak for or even discuss how this is the norm.

    Just a troll here to stir the pot.
     
  20. katanaD

    katanaD [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,987
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2016
    I dont think that is understood as well as it should be. manufacturing on that level is a lot of damn work. its almost rocket science in its difficulty

    *snickers*
     
    runudownquick likes this.
  21. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

    Messages:
    28,446
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2000
    I'm one of those reservation holders.

    What is worth mentioning is that the deposit of $1000 is fully refundable, so presuming Tesla stays around and doesn't file chapter 11, the risk here is limited only to the interest on said $1000. If you feel it is taking too long, or the product doesn't live up to your expectations, you can cancel and get your money back at any time.

    I paid the $1000 just to get in the line while I consider my options. With the delays, I'm starting to wonder what Volvo's all electric models will look like when they arrive. I like Tesla, but I'm not a huge fan of their minimalist designs in the Model 3, with the speedometer on a tablet-like screen in the center. They claim it is because these things are less important when autonomous driving comes along, but honestly, I have absolutely zero interest in autonomous vehicles. I want to drive myself.

    Not to mention, Tesla's EV tax credits may have expired by the time I get the opportunity to buy one.

    Because of this its sounding more and more likely I'll cancel my deposit and go for the Volvo EV when it comes around. (Assuming it is an actual EV, and not an "electrified" model)

    I'll keep my deposit in the ring for now to keep my bases covered, but it is by no means certain I will be a Tesla owner.
     
  22. thejokker

    thejokker Gawd

    Messages:
    821
    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2005
    A shortage of cobalt will create a huge bottleneck in the manufacturing of Lithium Ion batteries. Mass production of electric cars are not viable until a new battery technology is developed. Reports of the demise of the internal combustion engine are wildly premature...
     
  23. LightsOut41

    LightsOut41 Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    445
    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2017
    Do they give you your place in line? For example: you are #43,565
     
  24. -Strelok-

    -Strelok- [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,002
    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2010
  25. bbqrooster

    bbqrooster Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    207
    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2011
    Agreed. Besides, I want an EV with a real instrument panel.
     
  26. John Ransom

    John Ransom n00b

    Messages:
    58
    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2017
    its not just cobalt, nickle too, but we are a ways off for that. I used to be SOOOO stoked about tesla, then i remember a car is a depreciated asset and an unreliable car is even worse.
     
  27. SomeoneElse

    SomeoneElse [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,788
    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2007
    What about Government Motors, AKA General Motors.......Are they frauds too? They get gov subsidies, hell they even got the "bailout" money back in 2008 to make sure they didn't fail.
     
    runudownquick likes this.
  28. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,270
    Joined:
    May 27, 2001
    There's nothing to back up. You dispute he's received billions for companies that none make a single dollar in profit?
     
  29. capt_cope

    capt_cope Gawd

    Messages:
    917
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2009
    It seems we're in agreement that Musk is very loudly and very publicly creating expectations that are at best irrational. I find it hard to believe a company has its shit together when the CEO makes claims that irrational or not, are missed by wide margins. And by wide margins I'm talking about only 260 of the 1500 cars promised by Q3 actually being built. And to make matters worse he waits for news outlets to sensationalize it. I'm not saying they can't become a major manufacturer, but it sure feels like they weren't setup to be one from the start, hence "they need to get their shit together". While you can try to scale up, if you don't have the framework in place you're probably going to fail (just like Delorean or Tucker). Having someone like Musk generating irrational public expectations certainly isn't going to help that situation.

    And since you mentioned Tucker, what about Hyundai? They started in 1969, and produced 1,000,000 cars by 1986. I know, 17 years not 14, and while it's possible Tesla will build ~740,000 cars in the next three years, I kind of doubt it.
     
  30. rudy

    rudy [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    8,586
    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2004
    So you are saying that Elon, the king of over promising and under delivering had an outside vendor over promise and under deliver? How fascinating, I believe they call that Karma or Irony.
     
    thejokker likes this.
  31. runudownquick

    runudownquick Gawd

    Messages:
    831
    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    It's funny how the original troll singled out how Musk has gotten subsidies, yet several other large car companies had to get bailed out with significantly more money.

    I never disputed it. It's almost as if the government knows that EV's are a step forward and it's healthy to have competition, especially when that competition has shown that it made sub standard products for decades.
     
  32. -Strelok-

    -Strelok- [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,002
    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2010
    There's a slight difference here though. If Tesla went away tomorrow, how big would the effect be? They sell almost nothing in comparison to other car companies and while their SpaceX rockets are cool, they also wouldn't have a huge impact right now. Tesla also hasn't made money except for 1 quarter in its entire history, basically we are all paying for the hopes that Tesla manages to do something magical.
     
    Blown 89 likes this.
  33. Zarathustra[H]

    Zarathustra[H] Official Forum Curmudgeon

    Messages:
    28,446
    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2000
    I'm not that familiar with the Hyundai story, but time will tell on Tesla.

    They are certainly behind in their ramp-up, but I see no reason they can't will hit the overall target of about 10,000 Model 3's and about 2,000 Model S and X's by end of next year. That puts them at an annualized rate of about 625k cars per year by late 2018.

    Certainly possible.
     
  34. runudownquick

    runudownquick Gawd

    Messages:
    831
    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    > basically we are all paying for the hopes that Tesla manages to do something magical

    Not magical, it's a business model. They will start making money over time. They got money from the government because they've shown they should be able to pull it off. Same could have been said when other big MFG's were bailed right the hell out, on top of all the subsidies they get. Was it magic when Detroit got back to making a profit?

    Add to that the anti-competitive hurdles Tesla has to jump through, dealerships anyone?
     
  35. Biznatch

    Biznatch 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,224
    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009

    Oh look another post with dumb info (fayk nooz!)..... SpaceX rockets are one of the biggest advances recently in launches..... Re-usable and cost what, less than 1/4 of the price to launch as the previous generation rockets? And lets not forget, there are only 2 other rockets still being used to send payloads to space. 1 is about to be completely phased out, the other is older rockets from russia, which we obviously want to stop using. So SpaceX is about to be the only company launching government payloads, and are booked for the next couple years already. It would have a huge impact if spacex went away suddenly.

    Sorry if that kills your musk hate hardon, but you're completely wrong.
     
    runudownquick likes this.
  36. capt_cope

    capt_cope Gawd

    Messages:
    917
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2009
    Their target isn't 10,000 Model 3's by the end of next year, it's 5,000 cars PER WEEK by the end of 2017 and 10,000 cars per week "sometime" in 2018.

    Considering they've delivered somewhere around 300,000 cars total over the past 14 years I find that figure REALLY hard to believe.
     
  37. -Strelok-

    -Strelok- [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,002
    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2010
    Sure, but I'm not the one getting all emotional over Musk's promises.
     
  38. Goodlookinguy

    Goodlookinguy [H]Lite

    Messages:
    69
    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2015
    Nope. The people who were fired are to blame for the issue. Outside suppliers have nothing to do with it, that part is true. My very close friend who works at Tesla as a higher up position gave me a very in-depth explanation of what happened and most of the people who were fired deserved to be fired. What they did has caused the production slowdown. I'm not entirely sure why Tesla is backing away from admitting what happened. Maybe they haven't finished the investigation yet.
     
  39. nilepez

    nilepez [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,473
    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2005
    I don't think anyone is going to worry that much over 3 months. It's only 70,000 cars (and presumably they're still making Model 3s each week). #400,000 probably wasn't getting a car till late next no matter what.
     
  40. opfreak

    opfreak Gawd

    Messages:
    763
    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2005
    Musk in July, we will get to 20k cars a month easy by December.
    Musk in November,.. umm, mumble mumble,