DRAM Revenue to Eclipse the $100 Billion Mark Due to Continued Parts Shortages

cageymaru

Fully [H]
Joined
Apr 10, 2003
Messages
20,788
The growth of the DRAM market is exploding as parts shortages have driven the revenue to new highs. According to market research firm IC Insights, sales are expected to grow by 39% this year and make the DRAM semiconductor product category the first to eclipse the $100 billion mark. I'm still holding out for the predicted 2019 oversupply of the market.

Market research firms IC Insights and International Business Strategies (IBS) have both in recent days issued forecasts that DRAM would eclipse $100 billion. However, while IC Insights predicts that it will happen this year, IBS forecasts it will occur in 2019. The DRAM market surged by 78% in 2017.


 
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Dermen

Limp Gawd
Joined
Oct 10, 2017
Messages
394
Where is all this dram going? It seems like people keep PCs and phones longer than before because they don't get that much faster anymore. Is it all these smart devices? Do people actually buy that crap? Or is it from new markets?

That article has a market share chart, and I saw Winbond on the bottom. Good old BH5, reminding me that I am old.
 

N4CR

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Messages
4,850
What shortage? That would indicate a scarcity of something.
RAM has always been available and in stock during this entire 'shortage'. The only 'shortage' is the lack of not being gouged by DRAM manufacturers.
GPUs are plentiful now, but yes, a few months ago this article would have made sense if aimed at GPUs.
 

-=SOF=-WID99

Limp Gawd
Joined
Nov 30, 2015
Messages
231
hmm funny when i walk into my local microcenter ... they have the ram i need all the time ! and more then one set of what i'm looking for .. so where is this shortage
yea the prices went waaayy up ..looks like the dram makers didn't learn last time they pulled this crap years ago ...... and got sued ..and we all got like 10 bucks out of a settlement ..and only the lawyers made money

https://www.reuters.com/article/urn...nt-against-dram-makers-idUS303699588620100624

history repeats itself

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/04/30/dram_vendors_sued_again_for_price_fixing_again/

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ti-trust-collusion-between-dram-manufacturers

https://gizmodo.com/class-action-lawsuit-alleges-price-fixing-scheme-carrie-1825628236

https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/d...ot-billions)-on-antitrust-fines-in-china.html

guess they need to raise prices to pay for lawyers and fines now ..
 

griff30

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jul 15, 2000
Messages
6,697
If someone is willing to pay for it, shortage or not, prices will continue to rise and the excuse will always be "shortage", "earthquake" or "take your pick someone is going to pay our price"
This is collusion and no, this is not the bullshit "Russia" type collusion.
 

Elf_Boy

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 16, 2007
Messages
2,467
I believe the terms are collusion and market manipulation.

Of course I expect a post shortly telling us why we are wrong and have no proof the nice sweet companies that keep unicorns on service are doing this and we need to stop our noise making right away.
 

knowom

Limp Gawd
Joined
Aug 15, 2008
Messages
425
If someone is willing to pay for it, shortage or not, prices will continue to rise and the excuse will always be "shortage", "earthquake" or "take your pick someone is going to pay our price"
This is collusion and no, this is not the bullshit "Russia" type collusion.
AI/Deep learning, APU's, relatively affordable quad/octa channel cpu's plus people transitioning over to DDR4 in general from earlier versions and the CPU market is booming, GPU's with ever increasing insatiable VRAM needs due to high refresh rate displays and higher resolutions plus downsampling methods like DSR and VSR, routers and other IoT devices, and smartphones. Are the memory makers taking advantage of the high demand from a perfect storm scenario of things that all want more memory faster memory and more efficient memory probably yes though there is definitely increased overall demand at this point in time taking all of that into account.

I believe the terms are collusion and market manipulation.

Of course I expect a post shortly telling us why we are wrong and have no proof the nice sweet companies that keep unicorns on service are doing this and we need to stop our noise making right away.
To be honest I think DDR4 prices when Skylake was new were cheap and lower than they probably should have been especially in the case of the higher capacity kits. I think a bit part of it was the demand for DDR4 was very low at the time Skylake really wasn't particularly special plus 4K/1440p DSR/VSR and high refresh rate displays were all much more relatively new thus less common and more expensive.

I don't think DRAM makers are saints by any means they are businesses, but CPU/GPU/Peripheral/Display/NAND/HD makers that have all pretty much done the same kind of thing over the last decade. Some of them have arguably been worse.
 
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workshop35

Gawd
Joined
Nov 24, 2013
Messages
719
hmm funny when i walk into my local microcenter ... they have the ram i need all the time ! and more then one set of what i'm looking for .. so where is this shortage
yea the prices went waaayy up ..looks like the dram makers didn't learn last time they pulled this crap years ago ...... and got sued ..and we all got like 10 bucks out of a settlement ..and only the lawyers made money

https://www.reuters.com/article/urn...nt-against-dram-makers-idUS303699588620100624

history repeats itself

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/04/30/dram_vendors_sued_again_for_price_fixing_again/

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...ti-trust-collusion-between-dram-manufacturers

https://gizmodo.com/class-action-lawsuit-alleges-price-fixing-scheme-carrie-1825628236

https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/d...ot-billions)-on-antitrust-fines-in-china.html

guess they need to raise prices to pay for lawyers and fines now ..
Accusation != guilt
 

workshop35

Gawd
Joined
Nov 24, 2013
Messages
719
The real question is this: With record sales and revenue, what is the motivation for DRAM manufacturers to increase supply?
They are increasing capacity. They are cautious to build a million new fabs because the investment is huge and if the market drops off they'll get hosed
 
Joined
Mar 16, 2006
Messages
4,064
The real question is this: With record sales and revenue, what is the motivation for DRAM manufacturers to increase supply?
If they can increase profits while increasing supply, they will do it, else they won't.

AI/Deep learning, APU's, relatively affordable quad/octa channel cpu's plus people transitioning over to DDR4 in general from earlier versions and the CPU market is booming, GPU's with ever increasing insatiable VRAM needs due to high refresh rate displays and higher resolutions plus downsampling methods like DSR and VSR, routers and other IoT devices, and smartphones. Are the memory makers taking advantage of the high demand from a perfect storm scenario of things that all want more memory faster memory and more efficient memory probably yes though there is definitely increased overall demand at this point in time taking all of that into account.

To be honest I think DDR4 prices when Skylake was new were cheap and lower than they probably should have been especially in the case of the higher capacity kits. I think a bit part of it was the demand for DDR4 was very low at the time Skylake really wasn't particularly special plus 4K/1440p DSR/VSR and high refresh rate displays were all much more relatively new thus less common and more expensive.

I don't think DRAM makers are saints by any means they are businesses, but CPU/GPU/Peripheral/Display/NAND/HD makers that have all pretty much done the same kind of thing over the last decade. Some of them have arguably been worse.

If you think that people who buy more RAM (system or video) for the high res/high refresh rate systems are having a large impact in the market, I have several bridges to sell you. Business, data center, and cell phone purchases drive the vast majority of the market for RAM.
 

KazeoHin

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Sep 7, 2011
Messages
8,399
If they can increase profits while increasing supply, they will do it, else they won't.


That's the thing, Demand goes up, Supply stays static, profits go up.

Demand goes up, Supply goes up, Profits flatline.

There is more incentive for these companies to collude and keep supply low.


If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
 

Kongar

Gawd
Joined
Oct 25, 2004
Messages
740
Or we could all speak with our wallets like I am currently. No need to upgrade my pc with overpriced ram and video cards, and underwhelming intel chips with security flaws... I’ll wait tyvm - but most wont, and that’s why prices are high...
 

Elf_Boy

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 16, 2007
Messages
2,467
Or we could all speak with our wallets like I am currently. No need to upgrade my pc with overpriced ram and video cards, and underwhelming intel chips with security flaws... I’ll wait tyvm - but most wont, and that’s why prices are high...

That works, only to the point where performance in the game I am playing right now tanks because my GPU cant keep up or I want to build a new system because just adding a new GPU is not going to be enough.

A ten year old computer will do well enough for office and other not-demanding productivity tasks, when it comes to needing (or if you prefer in gaming wanting) to do better then it is a matter of saving up.

Were my livelihood to depend on more ram to increase jobs/day can you really see one holding back to make a point?
 
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