DRAM Industry Likely to Face Oversupply in 2019

DooKey

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 25, 2001
Messages
10,662
Industry sources are saying we're going to have a DRAM oversupply issue next year and I welcome it. They base their opinion on the fact Micron has ramped capacity and two DRAM plants in China are getting ready to come online. Hopefully, this will all come true and we'll get the price of DRAM back down to where it needs to be so we can upgrade our boxes without spending a truck load of money. Bring on the glut!!

Although Samsung and SK Hynix both stated, at their latest investors conferences, respectively, that they will continue to ramp up capacities for memory chips, the aggressive moves by rival companies have made the two companies hesitate, said the report.
 
Joined
Aug 17, 2016
Messages
704
When 32mb of RAM costs twice as much as the CPU, that's a problem. I'm looking forward to this as well. There has been a nice drop in SSD prices and GPU's have leveled off, RAM is the only thing still really high.
 

TheOne&OnlyZeke

100% Irish
Joined
Jul 21, 2000
Messages
10,940
Awesome.
Thered DDR4 in my PC doesn't suit the aesthetics of the rest of my PC so I'd like to change it to blue stuff, or maybe RGB
Maybe I can do it then

:D
 

doublejack

Limp Gawd
Joined
Apr 13, 2015
Messages
491
16GB of DDR4 3200 for $60, that's the target I'm looking for. It would take most of the sting out of paying so much for the first 16GB.
 

_l_

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 27, 2016
Messages
1,151
16GB of DDR4 3200 for $60, that's the target I'm looking for. It would take most of the sting out of paying so much for the first 16GB.

that price will happen same as the below MSRP we have been and still are seeing on almost 3 year old GPU tech
 

N4CR

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Messages
4,850
rutger orly.jpg


Sounds like a perfect year for a Zen2 based 7nm build and maybe a 7nm AMD GPU if they're any good after that. If it gets cheap enough, it'll be awesome for serious ram disk enthusiasts too.
 

c3k

2[H]4U
Joined
Sep 8, 2007
Messages
2,291
I'm starting the early phase of an "upgrade" to my rig in sig "break glass in case of emergency". I'm going to turn it into a Ryzen 2700x. The ram is an issue.

One of my rigs is rocking 64GB. Because. I'd like 32GB in the 2700x i'm going to do, but with a choice to upgrade to 64GB. The prices on ram is holding me back.

Parts I'm upgrading:

- cpu to 2700x
- mobo to Asus/Gigabyte/MSI X470 (Early innings yet)
- ram 3200-3600 speed and 16GB x2 (expanding later to 16GB x4)
- replacing WD 1TB black to a Samsung 500MB NVMe M2 for OS, etc.
- adding an SSD or two for data
- gpu to a Vega 56
- psu to Seasonic Prime Gold 750w (on the way from Newegg) C'mon: a psu is the beating heart of any system.
- New monitor (still deciding, but definitely an IPS Freesync).
- oh, and a new case.
- (Already have the new mouse. Some Logitech cool thing I like and have had in the past.)
- Corsair or NZXT AIO cooler.

Other than that, I'm gonna keep it all the same.
 

Dougie

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jul 26, 2018
Messages
153
2019 It's a long time to go. And I have my doubts, DDR5 should be going into production by then, which would imply a reduction in DDR4 production, which could keep the prices relatively high still, hopefully I'm wrong.
 

Joust

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Nov 30, 2017
Messages
5,135
I'm starting the early phase of an "upgrade" to my rig in sig "break glass in case of emergency". I'm going to turn it into a Ryzen 2700x. The ram is an issue.

One of my rigs is rocking 64GB. Because. I'd like 32GB in the 2700x i'm going to do, but with a choice to upgrade to 64GB. The prices on ram is holding me back.

Parts I'm upgrading:

- cpu to 2700x
- mobo to Asus/Gigabyte/MSI X470 (Early innings yet)
- ram 3200-3600 speed and 16GB x2 (expanding later to 16GB x4)
- replacing WD 1TB black to a Samsung 500MB NVMe M2 for OS, etc.
- adding an SSD or two for data
- gpu to a Vega 56
- psu to Seasonic Prime Gold 750w (on the way from Newegg) C'mon: a psu is the beating heart of any system.
- New monitor (still deciding, but definitely an IPS Freesync).
- oh, and a new case.
- (Already have the new mouse. Some Logitech cool thing I like and have had in the past.)
- Corsair or NZXT AIO cooler.

Other than that, I'm gonna keep it all the same.
Must be one sweet, sweet Soundblaster you're swapping over.
 

Bigdady92

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jun 20, 2001
Messages
5,767
Upgrades for 2019:

128GB DDR4
Epyc2/TR2 16/32
Nvidia xx70 whatever the current one is

Only waiting for new motherboards to come out and Epyc2/TR2 to be released.
 

Zarathustra[H]

Extremely [H]
Joined
Oct 29, 2000
Messages
33,423
Ah, maybe it will finally be time to upgrade the old server in my basement.

I've been a dual socket old Westmere EP system forever because replacing the 192GB of registered ECC DDR3 RAM in it with DDR4 has been way more money than I have been willing to spend.
 

whatevs

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jun 23, 2017
Messages
199
Sorry, reality check. What will happen is that those Chinese plants are actually the ones that you just read about stealing IP from non-Chinese companies. They will produce substandard parts and in the rush back to getting reliable parts, the memory prices will go even higher.
 

Dougie

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jul 26, 2018
Messages
153
Sorry, reality check. What will happen is that those Chinese plants are actually the ones that you just read about stealing IP from non-Chinese companies. They will produce substandard parts and in the rush back to getting reliable parts, the memory prices will go even higher.


You looking good in that tinfoil hat!! They coming back in style I see.
 

whatevs

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jun 23, 2017
Messages
199
Come on, a flood of DDR4, right when DDR5 will be out in a couple of years? It makes more sense if those were LPDDR mobile memory factories. If it is DDR4, than only financial sense would be that they were heavily pushed by the Chinese government...
 

zpackrat

Gawd
Joined
Jan 28, 2002
Messages
818
View attachment 91858

Sounds like a perfect year for a Zen2 based 7nm build and maybe a 7nm AMD GPU if they're any good after that. If it gets cheap enough, it'll be awesome for serious ram disk enthusiasts too.
Not sure of the reason behind the Rutger Hauer / Blade Runner reference, but it's cool all the same.
 

DNMock

Limp Gawd
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
399
Translation: "None of our plants have experienced any type of natural disaster like a flood or earthquake that is a viable excuse to artificially keep the supply below demand so in order to keep our massive margins we are gonna cut back production"
 

lostin3d

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Oct 13, 2016
Messages
2,043
How long till the sales reps convince various IOT makers that their devices need more Dram. That ought to use 'em up and keep the prices high. Can see it now at BB, here's our latest Frig' with state of the art DDR4 and SSD for even the biggest shopping lists.
 

J3RK

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jun 25, 2004
Messages
9,890
Poor RAM companies. To help them out, I may have to buy 32GB sometime in the near future... ...at the lowest price possible...

Hey! I finally found a use for that "I'll wait until the game hits $5" mentality! Exciting!
 

doublejack

Limp Gawd
Joined
Apr 13, 2015
Messages
491
that price will happen same as the below MSRP we have been and still are seeing on almost 3 year old GPU tech

DDR4 prices dropping are far more likely to happen than GPU prices dropping. I bought some DDR3 not that long ago for $60 per 16GB. I think I even paid about $90 at one point for a 32GB kit. Miners don't use much memory, so if the price fixing suppliers actually pump out some supply the the prices will come down nicely.
 

dgingeri

2[H]4U
Joined
Dec 5, 2004
Messages
2,830
2019 It's a long time to go. And I have my doubts, DDR5 should be going into production by then, which would imply a reduction in DDR4 production, which could keep the prices relatively high still, hopefully I'm wrong.
I highly doubt DDR5 will make consumer level before 2021. AMD is aiming to keep AM4 compatibility until Zen 3/Ryzen gen 4, which is 2020 at the earliest. I doubt Intel is aiming for DDR5 for their next design, as it's just a step up from Coffee Lake, so the earliest Intel will have that will be 2020. Likely, 2021 will be the year DDR5 will hit HEDT, and late 2022 or 2023 will be for mainstream. The fact that none of the current 8 core designs are bandwidth starved with DDR4 also put doubt into a mainstream release for quite a while. 16 core systems might hit a cap with DDR4, and 32 core processors might begin the need for DDR5.
 

mjz_5

2[H]4U
Joined
May 24, 2001
Messages
3,637
Ah, maybe it will finally be time to upgrade the old server in my basement.

I've been a dual socket old Westmere EP system forever because replacing the 192GB of registered ECC DDR3 RAM in it with DDR4 has been way more money than I have been willing to spend.

What do you need that much ram for?
 

Dougie

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jul 26, 2018
Messages
153
I highly doubt DDR5 will make consumer level before 2021. AMD is aiming to keep AM4 compatibility until Zen 3/Ryzen gen 4, which is 2020 at the earliest. I doubt Intel is aiming for DDR5 for their next design, as it's just a step up from Coffee Lake, so the earliest Intel will have that will be 2020. Likely, 2021 will be the year DDR5 will hit HEDT, and late 2022 or 2023 will be for mainstream. The fact that none of the current 8 core designs are bandwidth starved with DDR4 also put doubt into a mainstream release for quite a while. 16 core systems might hit a cap with DDR4, and 32 core processors might begin the need for DDR5.

I don't disagree with you, but from what I understand DDR5 design is ready, and the demand for it doesn't need to come from PC segment, but rather mobile, and maybe some other computing applications.
 

N4CR

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Oct 17, 2011
Messages
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Not sure of the reason behind the Rutger Hauer / Blade Runner reference, but it's cool all the same.
Hah fair question. It's more the 'oh really' Rutger look when he finds something interesting out.
 

Elf_Boy

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 16, 2007
Messages
2,467
Happy Happy Joy Joy

Well if I build that TR2 box I am thinking about -- too late on this one :(
 

nightanole

[H]ard|Gawd
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Feb 16, 2003
Messages
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Can you meet/beat a ryzen in games, using a xeon with registered/buffered ddr3 that almost given away at this point?
 

trparky

Gawd
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Jul 23, 2009
Messages
971
If there's an over supply then why has prices for memory been through the freakin' roof lately?
 
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