Did GPU bubbles of before "pop" in some way?

noko

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This is why you aren't running a GPU company. You sell GPUs. Doesn't matter if the Devil himself wants to buy one. Is his money green? He gets what he's willing to pay for, if so.
lol, enlighten me then. Are you saying gaming is not important for AMD or what? Have no viable progressing eco system for developers, software programmers and artists which will sustain long term goals? When has mining ever helped AMD? It has repeatedly hurt them over and over again. They can't even make enough cards for the gamers even with a design not optimized for mining.
 

staknhalo

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en. Are you saying gaming is not important for AMD or what?

I'm saying if miners wanted to buy from AMD, they wouldn't tell them no. And they wouldn't specifically design their products to not be appealing/to be completely useless to miners, and only to rAdIcAl GaMeRzZ dUdE. AMD is a company, not a charity.
 

noko

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I'm saying if miners wanted to buy from AMD, they wouldn't tell them no. And they wouldn't specifically design their products to not be appealing/to completely useless to miners, and only to rAdIcAl GaMeRzZ dUdE. AMD is a company, not a charity.
Of course not, not so bright people may indeed spend money on cards not optimize for mining for purely mining reasons. AMD RNDA2 cards are just not the best GPU so far for mining. If AMD has a professional version with HBM or something like that, it may mine like hell but still not even be worthy of a serious mining rig due to price. If folks want to mine with their gaming card, so be it. If not so be it. It has nothing or virtually nothing to do with AMD RNDA2 shortage.
 

LukeTbk

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Yes I do, believe AMD indicated this as well. Keeping gaming eco-system going is probably way more important then a temporary gold rush from mining. Getting more and more users using your product on a long term steady growth market, gaming, would be prudent.
Sure that covid things change everything, but considering how little RDNA 2 for PC they made how important did they value this ?

> It is very obviously AMD built something not that optimized for mining, at least for Ethereum.
That was never debated, the debate was if ever decision (i.e. the cache versus bandwidth) was motivated to hurt mining or not just a solution that was interesting for console and gaming video card by itself (right now and in the future with the infinity cache development road, multiple gpus chiplet road and so on) that didn't need any other advantage, that it was just a nice bonus if they saw it like that or a hit they didn't mind that it meant bad at mining at the same time.

Getting more and more users using your product on a long term steady growth market, gaming, would be prudent.
For sure, that why those company tend to lie if they can to investor about how much goes to more volatile miners than more stable gamers, but you need to plan (with giant client that finance the R&D in sony/microsoft that I doubt do not care for a second) that mining will be a big deal and that will make impossible to sales to gamers your product (and that not being able to for other reason anyways), but to the point to make R&D cost and risk and create a more costly inferior at gaming product just for the "benefit" (that would have been in most normal case just a big negative) of having lesser performance in mining....
 

staknhalo

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It has nothing or virtually nothing to do with AMD RNDA2 shortage.
I think you're wrong there too, miners are out buying laptops they themselves can't get enough GPUs ATM. Are they the main cause? No. One of the factors at play here, yes. Absolutely. You do realize, this is like the perfect storm of 5 different things all happening at the same time, that normally each one on it's own would suck, but altogether is causing PC Part Apocalypse basically at retail with all their fantastic timing.
 

noko

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Sure that covid things change everything, but considering how little RDNA 2 for PC they made how important did they value this ?


That was never debated, the debate was if ever decision (i.e. the cache versus bandwidth) was motivated to hurt mining or not just a solution that was interesting for console and gaming video card by itself (right now and in the future with the infinity cache development road, multiple gpus chiplet road and so on) that didn't need any other advantage, that it was just a nice bonus if they saw it like that or a hit they didn't mind that it meant bad at mining at the same time.


For sure, that why those company tend to lie if they can to investor about how much goes to more volatile miners than more stable gamers, but you need to plan (with giant client that finance the R&D in sony/microsoft that I doubt do not care for a second) that mining will be a big deal and that will make impossible to sales to gamers your product (and that not being able to for other reason anyways), but to the point to make R&D cost and risk and create a more costly inferior at gaming product just for the "benefit" (that would have been in most normal case just a big negative) of having lesser performance in mining....
Well since the design and final configuration takes years of preparation for a new GPU line, mining being a rather inconsistent market which few can count on, take into consideration of cost of design, how competitive and profit ratio. AMD obviously did not care much about mining performance and mining was immaterial if their design speeds up the gaming aspect with a cheaper ram solution and bus width. To me AMD was targeting the gaming market, honing in on it. If miners want to buy, AMD is not going to be the police, they will.

Nvidia design probably didn't even consider mining either but since their design requires a fast memory bandwidth solution it makes then beasts for mining plus the extra cuda cores can really help out not only in compute for like RT but for certain algorithms for mining. I don't even think Nvidia considered much with respects to mining and I am sure they will sell to whom ever has the $ for one of their GPUs.
 

noko

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I think you're wrong there too, miners are out buying laptops they themselves can't get enough GPUs ATM. Are they the main cause? No. One of the factors at play here, yes. Absolutely. You do realize, this is like the perfect storm of 5 different things all happening at the same time, that normally each one on it's own would suck, but altogether is causing PC Part Apocalypse basically at retail with all their fantastic timing.
I like to see the return on investment for that, :ROFLMAO:. Just because one or two idiots bought laptops with Ampere GPUs for mining does not indicate how widespread this is but one may not know. We are guessing for one the story is true, that it was not a prank for hits, that it is somehow wide spread which is laughable but what do I know.
 

Rizen

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This is why you aren't running a GPU company. You sell GPUs. Doesn't matter if the Devil himself wants to buy one. Is his money green? He gets what he's willing to pay for, if so.
Even a cursory review of NVIDIA as a business would indicate this is far too simplistic. NVIDIA now employs more software engineers than hardware. Do you think they like all of the investments they are making into technologies like ray tracing that are simply going unused? Miners don't have any sort of brand loyalty, it's all about hash rate and power efficiency. There is no "mindshare" that's worth money there. They're going to sell every single GPU they can produce right now, so I would bet they ultimately want them in the hands of gamers.

Or not, who knows? But it seems unlikely.
 
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noko

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Even a cursory review of NVIDIA as a business would indicate this is far too simplistic. NVIDIA now employs more software engineers than hardware. Do you think they like all of the investments they are making into technologies like ray tracing that are simply going unused? Miners don't have any sort of brand loyalty, it's all about hash rate and power efficiency. There is no "mindshare" that's worth money there. They're going to sell every single GPU they can produce right now, so I would bet they ultimately want them in the hands of gamers.

Or not, who knows? But it seems unlikely.
Nvidia did make mining cards which ended up biting them big time in the ass last crypto cycle. Tons of left over non wanted inventory. I am sure Nvidia wants to do that again. Probably not.

Also how would AMD or Nvidia really know what their cards will end up doing, in other words it is not if they can police who buys the cards for mining or not. AMD or Nvidia would have to take your data, what you are doing, ignore privacy and then accuse you of some forbidden behavior before you even did it. Some folks have no problem with that idea, which is actually rather scary.

I could be buying 10 cards for 3d rendering or for a classroom for teaching video production, scientific simulation, professional applications such as 3d cad, for game development and the list goes on and on. AMD nor Nvidia would not be able to realistically restrict who buys what.

Now I am mining ETH with the 6900 XT, pitiful at best, 60mh/s. My 5700 XT does 51mh/s and if I push it around 52mh/s (my ram does not OC well and is limiting that card). The 3090 I've tested and it was up to 110mh/s but the ram was smoking hot, 104c, I thought EVGA did a good job on the ram cooling, I was wrong. Anyways no way am I going to mine with the 3090 at that rate with 104c ram and that was not even OC! I would have to underclock the ram and/or cool it way better. I didn't buy these cards for mining but may periodically do that.
 

euskalzabe

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To the OP: read this, it's a good summary of parts of the problem.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/02/10/whats-causing-the-chip-shortage-affecting-ps5-cars-and-more.html

To that you can add what's been explained at length and quite well by noko re: mining situation. Many people either don't know or don't take into account that GPU profitability for mining is limited and finite. Especially once the system switches to ETH 2.0 platform (already in progress) GPU mining won't make much sense anymore, not at the rate it does now. Once the system moves from proof of work to proof of stake, any new miner won't have the ability, capacity or incentive to mine much, as it'll take a long time to get to profit. This change is inevitable, because it's intended to make the network more secure and less volatile, which means it's in Ethereum's interest.

As with any market, once the players are established, making a dent becomes increasingly difficult. Miners will be forced to move to mining other altcoins, which are not as valuable to begin with. This whole process was supposed to start in 2020, it's delayed. Perhaps in 2021, but I'm reading lately more like 2022. In reality, assuming a gradual process, we can count on mining to stop affecting the GPU market around 2023-2024. Then we should go back to GPUs being sold mostly to games in a normal market demand situation.
 

LukeTbk

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Well since the design and final configuration takes years of preparation for a new GPU line, mining being a rather inconsistent market which few can count on, take into consideration of cost of design, how competitive and profit ratio. AMD obviously did not care much about mining performance and mining was immaterial if their design speeds up the gaming aspect with a cheaper ram solution and bus width.
if that the case we are saying the same thing.

I am open to the idea that Microsoft/Sony did fear that their console would be 'jailbroken" and used for mining (that would be terrible for them has they made their money unlike GPU maker after the sales not with it), but like you said the design idea has enough merit to not have been done against mining, but for gaming performance by $ and watt and future scalability.
 

Jandor

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PCC probably retaining graphics cards assembled in China to mine bitcoin and Ethereum to undermine dollar.
Would have been Trump in place, at the people demand, China would have been banned from assembling and acquiring graphic cards. :D
 
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x509

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I don't see hundreds of images of said mining rigs, does not mean they don't exist. Like to know how these supposed individuals are able to get cards at whim. Anyways Google search, last month worth, Nvidia Ampere Mining rigs, seems more notebooks are being used -> kinda hard to get the cards if folks are that desperate is my first thought
As for Crypto mining, anything memory intensive is anti ASIC in general making it more GPU friendly.
Why is that?
As for mining, to spend that kind of money on 3080's, lol 3090's which can collapse in a matter of weeks

What is it about mining that can damage or crash a GPU?
  • Let see, if my 3090 made $12/day after electrical cost, paid $1700 after taxes -> 1700/12 = 142 days if all went well, prices stayed high in general, no significant down time, card or cards not failing etc., time invested and that is the time before I even see $1 in profit to my bank account. If I had to sell them, it would probably mean others are doing the same driving the cost down. Now it does not matter if it is one card or one hundred cards. There are additional costs, CPUs, motherboards, memory, adaptors, frames, power supplies, cooling, place to do it extend that time period before I make !$ profit. It is much more than just the cost of the GPU if one has a serious amount of GPU's to do mining. Many mining farms went down the drain quickly loosing money last big cycle
Couldn't happen to nicer guys. I hope that they all owed lots of money to tongs or the Mafia, and couldn't pay.
Crypto looks to be in another bubble which most likely will go pop, when is any ones guess. Now if it doesn't, some of us may make out like bandits.
I for one sure hope that the pop is more like a big bang, a black hole that sucks in all the scummy miners.
 

Jandor

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Frankly, it seems that those cards disappear as soon as assembled in China for mining. Since recently all currency from China to EU and Switzerland declared they're going to convert to their cryptocurrency, this means mining has got a political value. The state who owns more value in cryptocurrencies however interesting creating new crypto-money it costs will be more powerful to dictate its will.
Not sure what those central banks were up to because I don't think they started to mine before. So I bet they don't even know what they've got into.
The more I look at that picture and how Covid pandemic is going and the more I have the feeling we are screwed by people who don't have a clue of what's going on. The people who know are working at some big companies like the GAFAM, or for different mafias or at the head of the wrong states. We are in a pre-war situation like never.
 

x509

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Frankly, it seems that those cards disappear as soon as assembled in China for mining. Since recently all currency from China to EU and Switzerland declared they're going to convert to their cryptocurrency, this means mining has got a political value. The state who owns more value in cryptocurrencies however interesting creating new crypto-money it costs will be more powerful to dictate its will.
Not sure what those central banks were up to because I don't think they started to mine before. So I bet they don't even know what they've got into.
The more I look at that picture and how Covid pandemic is going and the more I have the feeling we are screwed by people who don't have a clue of what's going on. The people who know are working at some big companies like the GAFAM, or for different mafias or at the head of the wrong states. We are in a pre-war situation like never.
Look, if you look at the total value of the money supply in circulation just in the US, check this out. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1. Just in the US, it's over $6 TRILLION dollars. How in heck could we shift to a crypto-currency if has to be mined, and mining is expensive, etc., etc. When I can pay for a cup of coffee or a tank of gas or my monthly mortgage (or my income tax) with crypto-currency, then I'll believe in it. Until then crypto-currency is for lawbreakers and speculators, and not even very secure.
 
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Red Falcon

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Yes I do, believe AMD indicated this as well. Keeping gaming eco-system going is probably way more important then a temporary gold rush from mining.
Gaming is the only market AMD really has left for itself, both in PC and console markets, especially when NVIDIA has bigger markets to claim, as proven in the links below.

NVIDIA Data Centre Revenue Beats Gaming for First Time, as GPU Demand Grows
Chinese GPU Miners Now Rushing After NVIDIA GeForce RTX 30 Laptops
More Valuable than Oil, Data Reigns in Today’s Data Economy
(credit to Ski for the links)

AMD is already having severe issues with fabrication resources as well, considering the massive demand worldwide.
What we are seeing right now is hardly temporary, much to my chagrin, and is not a repeat of what we saw in the cryptocurrency rush of 2018.

The technological landscape, and markets, have all changed vastly in the last three years, and NVIDIA is the megacorp which has now claimed these vast new market shares.
It's a brave new world... :borg:
 

Red Falcon

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Since recently all currency from China to EU and Switzerland declared they're going to convert to their cryptocurrency, this means mining has got a political value. The state who owns more value in cryptocurrencies however interesting creating new crypto-money it costs will be more powerful to dictate its will.
You hit the nail on the head.

Federal Reserve branch shares paper on Ethereum and DeFi
From the article:
In the paper, Schär outlined that decentralized finance could lead to a “paradigm shift in the financial industry.”

Decentralized Finance: On Blockchain- and Smart Contract-Based Financial Markets
Sch21Q2Fig1_20210205034245.jpg
Sch21Q2Table1_20210205034434.jpg
From the second article:
As of September 2020, there are over 7,092 cryptoassets5 listed on exchanges. While most of them are economically irrelevant and have a negligible market cap and trading volume, there is a need for marketplaces where people can trade the more popular ones. This would allow owners of such assets to rebalance their exposure according to their preferences and risk profiles and adjust portfolio allocations.

In most cases, cryptoasset trades are conducted through centralized exchanges. Centralized exchanges are relatively efficient, but they have one severe problem. To be able to trade on a centralized exchange, traders must first deposit assets with the exchange. They thereby forfeit direct access to their assets and have to trust the exchange operator. Dishonest or unprofessional exchange operators may confiscate or lose assets. Moreover, centralized exchanges create a single point of attack and face the constant threat of becoming the target of malicious third parties. The relatively low regulatory scrutiny intensifies both problems and the immense scaling efforts many of these exchanges had to go through within a short time. Accordingly, it is no surprise that some centralized cryptoasset exchanges have lost customer funds.

Decentralized exchange protocols try to mitigate these issues by removing the trust requirement. Users no longer must deposit their funds with a centralized exchange. Instead, they remain in exclusive control of their assets until the trade is executed. Trade execution happens atomically through a smart contract, meaning that both sides of the trade are performed in one indivisible transaction, mitigating the counterparty credit risk. Depending on the exact implementation, the smart contract may assume additional roles, effectively making many intermediaries such as escrow services and central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs) obsolete.
 

kirbyrj

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I'm saying if miners wanted to buy from AMD, they wouldn't tell them no. And they wouldn't specifically design their products to not be appealing/to be completely useless to miners, and only to rAdIcAl GaMeRzZ dUdE. AMD is a company, not a charity.

I don't think AMD wanted to shut out miners at all. It was just a convenient talking point since they are using GDDR6 and not some "X" variety like the higher end Ampere. Pretty much every GDDR6 based modern GPU will mine around 50-60MH/s including AMD and Nvidia's cards at the same 100-120W power draw. You don't get above that unless you move to get either HBM or GDDR6X (Radeon VII/3080/3090).
 

LukeTbk

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Since recently all currency from China to EU and Switzerland declared they're going to convert to their cryptocurrency,
Did they ? Seem to all be in a looking into it type of status and many project would not be a full conversation, the digital euro for example:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/Report_on_a_digital_euro~4d7268b458.en.pdf#page=4
First, a digital euro would be just another way to supply euro, not a parallel currency. It should therefore be convertible at par with other forms of the euro, such as banknotes, central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits

And it would not necessarily involve private "mining" with all the operation being centralized being in the option looked at.

Same for China pilot project:
Dubbed digital currency electronic payment (DC/EP), the PBoC is designing the digital currency in a centralized way to control is distribution. It is also believed to make the usage of yuan more prominent on an international level.

I can imagine that lot letting people having the mean to mine private crypto currency could be useful to help their digital money to be popular,
 
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x509

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Did they ? Seem to all be in a looking into it type of status and many project would not be a full conversation, the digital euro for example:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/Report_on_a_digital_euro~4d7268b458.en.pdf#page=4
First, a digital euro would be just another way to supply euro, not a parallel currency. It should therefore be convertible at par with other forms of the euro, such as banknotes, central bank reserves and commercial bank deposits

And it would not necessarily involve private "mining" with all the operation being centralized being in the option looked at.

Same for China pilot project:
Dubbed digital currency electronic payment (DC/EP), the PBoC is designing the digital currency in a centralized way to control is distribution. It is also believed to make the usage of yuan more prominent on an international level.

I can imagine that lot letting people having the mean to mine private crypto currency could be useful to help their digital money to be popular,
Yah. Digital money and crypto currency are quite different in practice, despite both being digitally based.
 

jlbenedict

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I think this time around we will be waiting for a while...hopefully I am wrong.
This time is a bit different.
The mining is running in parallel with people working and gaming more from home.
That combination has created unprecedented shortages.
The OEMs and board partners have taken note of how much people are willing to pay.
I suspect that will also come into play in addition to the two reasons already mentioned.
Less stock means the prices can be artificially kept high for longer to increase margins.

This right here in a good summary on what is going on..

So.. if you have a good GPU now... protect it... guard it with a gun.. don't overclock it.... acquire a backup at a low price, if possible ..
 
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