I've also been debating between the two and, while I'll likely get the 450W, I'm most concerned with heat and noise. Though the PSU is "Gold" certified, it's only efficient in this range at half load, not full load, so I wonder if, in the interest of heat and silence, it's better to get the 650W and use it at partial load?
The efficiency difference will be too small to matter (and if the computer is more often run in idle than in load it could actually be worse, since efficiency at low loads is usually worse the higher the power rating the psu has), but a psu with a higher power rating may have beefier heatsinks and could thus be quieter (if the fan is run at a lower rpm) in practice. I'd pick the one that is generally considered quieter, regardless of power rating.
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