Chart That Tells You When Your Job Will Be Done By A Robot

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Let's face it, it's not a matter of "if" our jobs are all going to be taken by robots, it's a matter of "when." Clicking on the interactive chart gives you some pretty damn detailed information. The more you click, the spookier it gets. :eek:
 
If you think those Boston Dynamic dogs will be working at Walmart......
 
Why I haven't been replaced with a handout that says various wikipedia links I will never know... considering half my students don't listen to me anyways and go to wikipedia to answer questions (and then do horribly on them)
 
sfsuphysics said:
Why I haven't been replaced with a handout that says various wikipedia links I will never know... considering half my students don't listen to me anyways and go to wikipedia to answer questions (and then do horribly on them)
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What's the difference between reading the info off wikipedia vs going to a library and reading books? The answer is time.

As far as automation, be afraid of A.I. Mark Zuckerberg announced that he's going to try and make his own AI, and Silicon Valley seems to be advancing in this area extremely fast. I'd say within 3 years that most desk jobs like accounting will be replaced with AI. I'd like to say lawyers but knowing the American legal system it'll take another 10 years or more. The only reason it would take longer is because it'll take that long before courts will accept Adobe Lawyer Premier.
 
Well if robots are going to do all of the work, they're going to have to buy all of the goods and services as well since no human will have any money to buy them. But we do make good batteries.
 
heatlesssun said:
Well if robots are going to do all of the work, they're going to have to buy all of the goods and services as well since no human will have any money to buy them. But we do make good batteries.
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The problem is how the economy is structured. Capitalism won't last in a world with automation. Socialism is a temporary fix.
 
cyclone3d said:
How exactly are bus mechanics automatable?
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Was kinda wondering that myself. Seems like an odd one. I'm guessing it's talking about the technology where microphones+software are used to diagnose mechanical/engine problems that standard humans can't hear.
 
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that about 795 million people of the 7.3 billion people in the world, or one in nine, were suffering from chronic undernourishment in 2014-2016. Almost all the hungry people, 780 million, live in developing countries, representing 12.9 percent, or one in eight, of the population of developing counties. There are 11 million people undernourished in developed countries (FAO 2014; for individual country estimates, see Annex 1. For other valuable sources, especially if interested in particular countries or regions, see IFPRI 2015 and Rosen 2014).
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http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world hunger facts 2002.htm

Pretty sure 1/9 is not a majority.
 
Retronym said:
Then how are they alive?
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define "alive." I spent some time in both the heart of Africa as well as southeast Asia (mostly Thailand and Cambodia) last year. Most of the day-to-day people I ran into subsisted on less than what most Americans would consider one meal per day. For example, I made friends with a really friendly tour guide in Congo who only ate ~happy meal size hamburger per day. he was absolutely floored when I took him out for dinner and let him get whatever he wanted from the menu.

It's not some hippie diet it's a reflection of what's available and what they can afford.

We in the west get very accustomed to having three square (even our criminals in jail) per day but that is far from the norm in the developing world and there are FAR more people in the developing world than there are in the developed world.
 
DukenukemX said:
As far as automation, be afraid of A.I. Mark Zuckerberg announced that he's going to try and make his own AI, and Silicon Valley seems to be advancing in this area extremely fast. I'd say within 3 years that most desk jobs like accounting will be replaced with AI. I'd like to say lawyers but knowing the American legal system it'll take another 10 years or more.
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3 years? I really doubt it. Maybe 20-30 years.

I'd like to see the robot that can check for loose cable connections, trouble shoot & repair server hardware, or figure out what is wrong with the database files on a 15 year old application that is making the application crash.

I'd also like to see the AI system that can figure out how to apply check mangled by the post office to the correct account when you can barely read half the check.
 
I'm an electrician, the only way I could be replaced is if/when robots become identical to human in every aspect (physically and mentally). I'm not really scared for now ;)
 
They said the same thing in the 50's and then the 80's, it never happened. Besides, I've always got my all-purpose backup plan (buy robots and go into business for myself).
 
MrPatate said:
I'm an electrician, the only way I could be replaced is if/when robots become identical to human in every aspect (physically and mentally). I'm not really scared for now ;)
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I'm a Electrician's Apprentice, I agree. No robot could ever replace us. (well, maybe me) ;)
 
DukenukemX said:
What's the difference between reading the info off wikipedia vs going to a library and reading books? The answer is time.

As far as automation, be afraid of A.I. Mark Zuckerberg announced that he's going to try and make his own AI, and Silicon Valley seems to be advancing in this area extremely fast. I'd say within 3 years that most desk jobs like accounting will be replaced with AI. I'd like to say lawyers but knowing the American legal system it'll take another 10 years or more. The only reason it would take longer is because it'll take that long before courts will accept Adobe Lawyer Premier.
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No way that desk jobs will disappear that quickly. As for the legal system, maybe behind the scenes stuff could be handled by software, but I wouldn't want a computer arguing my case. Juries are moved by more than facts and I don't think AI will pass a Turing test in the next 10 years.
 
Quix said:
They said the same thing in the 50's and then the 80's, it never happened. Besides, I've always got my all-purpose backup plan (buy robots and go into business for myself).
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I believe (haven't verified this) that a lot of manufacturing jobs were lost to automation. Nevertheless, I don't think most desk jobs will be replaced by S/W anytime soon.
 
cyclone3d said:
How exactly are bus mechanics automatable?
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Depending on the servicing and repairs needed, quite automatable. The mechanics of rotating wheels and setting pressure are not that difficult. Same goes for fluid draining and filling. That stuff can be automated, eventually.

Diagnostics and unscheduled repairs will great advances in AI and robotic dexterity before they can replace humans.
 
Does no one else find it a little suspect that an advisory think-tank ranks many analysis and advisory positions as some of the least automatable jobs around?
 
Hmm...no way my job could be done by automation. Too highly specific with problem solving and hands-on with chemistry, anatomy and physiology. I'm safe. :D
 
MrPatate said:
I'm an electrician, the only way I could be replaced is if/when robots become identical to human in every aspect (physically and mentally). I'm not really scared for now ;)
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Or they start integrating electrical in prefab buildings. All the walls just click in like giant lego blocks and have plumbing and electrical quick connects.

That will be a scary time, as even jobs that seem like they are secure suddenly wont be any more.

Our whole job based living system is flawed though, it's just not sustainable, as tech improves more and more jobs will become automated, and the ones that can't be automated will just be outsourced. We need a more sustainable way of living as it will come to a point where there simply wont be enough jobs for everyone. Heck, it already is like that now, there are lot of people out there with no jobs.
 
Red Squirrel said:
Or they start integrating electrical in prefab buildings. All the walls just click in like giant lego blocks and have plumbing and electrical quick connects.
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Maybe for homes that don't change regularly but commercial buildings, hospitals, schools, etc they always change, add stuff, upgrade, new store inside an existing building, etc. So no I'm not scared of even prefabs.
 
Red Squirrel said:
Our whole job based living system is flawed though, it's just not sustainable, as tech improves more and more jobs will become automated, and the ones that can't be automated will just be outsourced. We need a more sustainable way of living as it will come to a point where there simply wont be enough jobs for everyone. Heck, it already is like that now, there are lot of people out there with no jobs.
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I'm sure somebody will figure out a solution.

For example, once almost everything is automated, there could be a tax per robot, or a tax on the value of what the robot produces. This tax money could then be used to provide a base pay for anyone displaced.

Assuming enough jobs are automated, at some point most people will no longer need to work, or if they do work, it will only be fore a day or 2 a week. Productivity would be very high, since most tasks would be automated, so the pay should be high for the few people that work.
 
nilepez said:
I believe (haven't verified this) that a lot of manufacturing jobs were lost to automation. Nevertheless, I don't think most desk jobs will be replaced by S/W anytime soon.
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Yeah, a lot of manufacturing jobs have been automated. But there have also been entire industries created since.
Red Squirrel said:
Or they start integrating electrical in prefab buildings. All the walls just click in like giant lego blocks and have plumbing and electrical quick connects.

That will be a scary time, as even jobs that seem like they are secure suddenly wont be any more.
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Ok, great. That covers the construction, what about maintenance, updates, upgrades, etc? Are existing buildings all going to be immediately torn down and replaced with these prefabs? Do you realize how many years various companies have tried selling prefab buildings for industrial, commercial, and even home use? It just doesn't work for everything(most things really once you go beyond the basic shell of the building). That plumbing, HVAC, electrical, data, and everything else that goes into building an office/factory/retail store/home needs to be put together and maintained by someone.

Sure, factory jobs have been automated. You know what hasn't been automated? The guy who is on call to repair the $300k machine and keep production running with as few stoppages as possible. That guy might need to do electrical work, or even machining(possibly even as far as fabricating a component).

Same thing goes for mechanics. Yeah, there are things that can just get swapped out as a module, still need someone to do it. If you've looked into collision repair you'd understand real fast why that's not going to get automated any time soon. Then you've got the guys who work on maintaining/updating/upgrading existing infrastructure, everything from power lines to sewage lines in the street.

Yeah, menial and repetitive labor will go first but it's going to take a hell of a lot to automate a lot of skilled labor positions. The burger flipper at the local fast food place might be out of a job in 20 years, a blue collar guy working a skilled trade will have job security for decades to come.
 
Insulator here, not particularly scared either. Maybe if engineers and pipe fitters didn't fuck us on room to insulate I could see it being automated ever.
 
The issue with skilled trades probably won't be automation but the continued simplification and standardization of systems and components along a low barrier to entry into the workforce.
 
cyclone3d said:
How exactly are bus mechanics automatable?
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They make the motor+trans a cratable and easily pullable item and any time major work is needed they just pull it and replace with a "fresh" drive train and the busted one gets sent to a factory to be refurbished via a automated dis/assembly line of bots.

Sounds crazy but the way new motors are being built you have to pull them half the time to work on them anyways because you can't get at the parts otherwise and even then it takes hours of high cost labor to take everything apart and put it back together again.

They'll probably have to redesign the motors+trans to make them workable for robots but once they do then the mechanic's days are numbered for doing anything more complex than changing oil or brake pads.

To hear most mechanics talk these days though they're fine with that. New cars today are a royal bitch to work on and most of them get screwed on warranty repairs hours vs actual hours needed to fix the car enough that their effective wages probably wouldn't change to much. Everything is shoehorned into these cars just so, requires special tools, requires engine + trans removal on a lift, built cheap as all hell so it frequently breaks on removal, and then add in bolts rust welding together and a job that is booked as 3hr of labor is more like 6-7hr...but you only get paid for the 3hr because that is what the book says it should take.

Also the posted "labor rate" usually isn't what the mechanics are getting paid per hour. Typically they get around $20 per hour, for a non specialty shop, and the posted rate is actually the shop floor rate. That is why going to some random dude's garage shop from craigslist is so much cheaper, and so long as they aren't scammers or car thieves, you'll get better work done for less that way. The problem is finding one who isn't a scammer or thief of course so its fair if you don't want to go that route.
 
Merc1138 said:
Yeah, a lot of manufacturing jobs have been automated. But there have also been entire industries created since.
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The jobs created aren't numerous enough to make up the difference of those lost to automation nor do they pay enough to make up the difference on a micro or macro economic scale. Basically the jobs that are being made now are crappy service jobs that pay crap minimum wage, require you work 2 of em' just to live day to day, offer no ability to step up or valuable marketable skills, offer little to no benefits, and are highly unstable.

Even if unemployment was totally eliminated it'd be a major economic disaster if a majority of Americans were forced to work jobs like that since the consumer economy would disappear due to no one but the rich having any disposable income.

Solutions to this problem do exist (mincome + UHS like Medicare for All + tax the rich more since they'll be only ones with any excess money anymore, don't worry they'll still be rich) but politically are impossible to implement currently.

Merc1138 said:
The burger flipper at the local fast food place might be out of a job in 20 years, a blue collar guy working a skilled trade will have job security for decades to come.
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Anything at least moderately repetitive + requiring little to moderate thinking capacity is going to get automated away. And yes that does include lots of blue collar skilled and semi skilled jobs as well as quite a bit of clerk work that used to be handled by people.

The time frame for this stuff isn't 20 yr either. Some of it is already happening now out in the Canadian oil patch of all places. The recent drop in market oil price has forced companies to try new things to stay in business and there are a lot of jobs that are never coming back even if the oil price recovers tomorrow now.
 
MrPatate said:
I'm an electrician, the only way I could be replaced is if/when robots become identical to human in every aspect (physically and mentally). I'm not really scared for now ;)
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Any time you use an automated tool it's considered a form of automation as it repeats a repetitive task.

But you think aspects of your job aren't repetitive enough to be replaced?

Running electrical lines?
Drilling holes for lines?
Hooking up a panel?
An outlet so far off the ground every so many feet?
You read electrical schematics to determine what goes where?


These are all forms of repetitive task which robots and computers are good at.

I don't say that to be an ass or shove it in your face. But you need to rethink your reality. Boston Dynamics does some neat work. But if you seen some of the automated learning algorithms I'm working on....
 
mesyn191 said:
They make the motor+trans a cratable and easily pullable item and any time major work is needed they just pull it and replace with a "fresh" drive train and the busted one gets sent to a factory to be refurbished via a automated dis/assembly line of bots.

Sounds crazy but the way new motors are being built you have to pull them half the time to work on them anyways because you can't get at the parts otherwise and even then it takes hours of high cost labor to take everything apart and put it back together again.

They'll probably have to redesign the motors+trans to make them workable for robots but once they do then the mechanic's days are numbered for doing anything more complex than changing oil or brake pads.

To hear most mechanics talk these days though they're fine with that. New cars today are a royal bitch to work on and most of them get screwed on warranty repairs hours vs actual hours needed to fix the car enough that their effective wages probably wouldn't change to much. Everything is shoehorned into these cars just so, requires special tools, requires engine + trans removal on a lift, built cheap as all hell so it frequently breaks on removal, and then add in bolts rust welding together and a job that is booked as 3hr of labor is more like 6-7hr...but you only get paid for the 3hr because that is what the book says it should take.

Also the posted "labor rate" usually isn't what the mechanics are getting paid per hour. Typically they get around $20 per hour, for a non specialty shop, and the posted rate is actually the shop floor rate. That is why going to some random dude's garage shop from craigslist is so much cheaper, and so long as they aren't scammers or car thieves, you'll get better work done for less that way. The problem is finding one who isn't a scammer or thief of course so its fair if you don't want to go that route.
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+1.

Have you ever seen Tesla's automated battery stop mechanism that's quicker then a gas station tank fill up?

Everything is being designed to be modular. There would be a time you would just replace a defective part that cost 90 cents. But things have gotten so complex that it's $500 in labor just to reach that 90 cent part. Or that 90 cent part (broken drivers mirror) now cost $500 in parts + $200 in labor...like on my ford taurus)

Mechanics replace the entire sub-assemblies. Sub assemblies are easy to attach or detach. Things just aren't designed to be serviceable any more. If you don't believe me, ask any TV repairman who wants $500 to fix a $600 set.
 
mesyn191 said:
Solutions to this problem do exist (mincome + UHS like Medicare for All + tax the rich more since they'll be only ones with any excess money anymore, don't worry they'll still be rich) but politically are impossible to implement currently.
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Sure, lets pay people not to work and give them free health insurance to help them recover from all their bad life choices. What could go wrong?

Even if you taxed the rich at 90% of their income (even including their foreign income and capital gains), you wouldn't be able to pay for this. And after the 1st year, most the rich wouldn't have much income to tax, because why work so hard if the government is going to take most of it.
 
DukenukemX said:
What's the difference between reading the info off wikipedia vs going to a library and reading books? The answer is time.
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That is the problem, because that is not even close to the difference. The real difference is depth and breadth of research, being able to compile source materials and interpret them. On wikipedi this is done for you, with very little to correct information outside Joe or Jane Blow editing the article.

The difference is a C- student that needs others to tell him/her how to get an A, and a student that achieves A+ results and is capable of in depth reasoning and analytical tools.

Wiki is a good place for a general view of something, and maybe some reference material, its a piss poor place to go to replace a library.
 
DigitalGriffin said:
Mechanics replace the entire sub-assemblies. Sub assemblies are easy to attach or detach. Things just aren't designed to be serviceable any more. If you don't believe me, ask any TV repairman who wants $500 to fix a $600 set.
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Almost anything is repairable if you can find parts.
The major problem is the cost of labor, so if you can fix it yourself, it's a lot cheaper.

Even modern TV's can be repaired at the component level ($300 board swap, or $5 transistor), but most repair people don't have the expertise or information to repair at that level, and even if they did, the labor cost would chew up much of the savings.

I've made repairs on my refrigerator twice over the past 16 years, spent less than $30 on parts. If I had to pay somebody, it would have been hundreds buy the time they included the trip charges and labor.
Same with other household appliances. I usually only replace something when the parts cost too much.
 
DukenukemX said:
The problem is how the economy is structured. Capitalism won't last in a world with automation. Socialism is a temporary fix.
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The end result of Capitalism is ALWAYS a drive by companies to reduce costs. And because efficiency has been raised about as much as possible, companies have spent a good decade starting to chip away at benefits. Now, it's the employees themselves.

The way I view it, is in 50 years or so, we'll reach a point where we have a permanent 15% unemployment simply because there are more people then jobs. And we'll need to decide what to do with them.

The end game will either be we automate everything resulting in a socialist utopia because money would be an obsolete concept (because robots!), or we'll all kill eachother due to the economic changes that will collapse society.
 
nutzo said:
Sure, lets pay people not to work and give them free health insurance to help them recover from all their bad life choices. What could go wrong?
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What could go right you mean? The alternative is letting a huge portion of the country become poor and desperate permanently which historically isn't the sort of thing that tends to end well.

nutzo said:
Even if you taxed the rich at 90% of their income
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A UHS is cheaper than current healthcare in the US (rest of the world pays about half what we do), reduce military spending some by cutting waste and closing the revolving door between the military and weapons manufacturers, and raise the effective tax rate 20% for the rich/corps as well as closing some corporate loop holes and boom problem solved.

None of this is impossible. And the rich will still work because they'll still earn enough money to stay rich.
 
nutzo said:
Almost anything is repairable if you can find parts.
The major problem is the cost of labor, so if you can fix it yourself, it's a lot cheaper.
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Well yeah sure but thats like saying, "if only I had a billion dollars I'd be rich" or "if only I had a pill that'd let me live for ever I'd just swallow it and never die".

Inclination to save money isn't enough. You have to know how to fix stuff and have the time as well as money for tools. There is a lot of stuff where it just isn't practical to know how to fix it. It'd almost be like going to college while still working full time.
 
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