Big Navi is coming

Discussion in 'Video Cards' started by sabrewolf732, Aug 1, 2019.

  1. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    the most important part of open source is not about security since yes, that still depends on competent people reviewing every change all the time just like any software.

    the most important part is that once the author has grown tired of maintaining it, or goes off in a direction they want but maybe you dont or dies/goes bankrupt etc... The software doesn't have to die with it or change with them or abandon your needs. You can (or like minded indviduals) fork it and adapt it to your needs. Or keep updating it for new hardware. Bring it to new archs that maybe the original authors dont care about.

    That's the most important part. The freedom to take the software to places you care about. AMD (and intel) give you that opportunity. Nvidia does not. So as far as I'm concerned, nvidia can release the best hardware ever to grace humanity ...they'll still get a huge middle finger from my wallet.
     
  2. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,291
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    And thus, a FOSS'er.

    How well the hardware and software stack execute the task at hand is secondary to being able to use the hardware once long obsoleted.

    Yes, to keep using ancient hardware with new software is nice, but it's not a primary focus of those trying to get work done today.


    [and I want to say that I'm not unsympathetic, but rather, that this perspective while absolutely worth presenting, does not rate importance for most of the buyers of these products]
     
    GoldenTiger likes this.
  3. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    A significant amount of amd fanboy-ism stems not from some kind of blind love of AMD or the radeon brand name or their color choice. It stems from the company going out of their way to being accessible and functional to a fairly large community of non-windows users. It's reinforced by the lack of support from their main competitor, nvidia. And while closed source drivers exist for OS's that are more common and may be good enough for someone coming in new. Anyone who's been in that game for a decade or more knows the pain of the limitations to closed source drivers. I dont even consider them an option. It's bad enough we still have to deal with closed firmware blobs.

    but true enough, none of this rates as important to "buyers of these products". Then again, almost nothing a computer enthusiast cares about rates as important to the masses that buy these products. Our discussions may as well just revolve around which ones has the most RGB lights.
     
    cybereality likes this.
  4. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,291
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    Not going to disagree for FOSS'ers, but remember that it's only been the last few years where AMD has had drivers that were even on the same continent as 'functional'.

    Nvidia has supported operating systems other than Windows far better. You may turn your nose up at closed source drivers, but by the gods they worked years ago and they work today.

    And despite all the Linux evangelism- and I include myself, just installed Fedora on a newly resurrected build today!- this is still a nearly unmeasurably small fraction of the market.
     
    GoldenTiger and Factum like this.
  5. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    the pc enthusiast market is extremely small.

    How often do you hear about everyone here upgrading to current stuff ... yet the market for pc is contracting and slowing every year. the diy build by components market while being fairly visible, is basically non-existent.

    if it doesn't come from a big oem with it in it, it's niche to the level of not really mattering.

    we all live in the niche.
     
    cybereality likes this.
  6. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,291
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    The PC gaming market is expanding every year.
     
    GoldenTiger likes this.
  7. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/263393/global-pc-shipments-since-1st-quarter-2009-by-vendor/

    that curve is not going up.

    now if you want to subset into "gaming" ...not sure where you'd get accurate numbers on that since any computer can be used to game on to varying degrees. Maybe their fraction of this shrinking market is growing year over year. Maybe the same amount is just getting more visible. The bottom line is, the total possible number is not growing, since new pc gaming sales can't grow beyond new pc sales.

    Since we know oem sales make the bulk of money for manufacturers like amd / nvidia / intel, I can only assume any growth in the diy sector is small compared to the oem ...and so is either also shrinking or is too small to counteract.
     
  8. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,291
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    Your logic is broken.

    One doesn't have to buy a new PC in order to buy a new PC game.
     
    GoldenTiger and Dayaks like this.
  9. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Q
    467B90F4-D589-4C5F-BA58-E8755CD4066A.png

    Around 50 million discrete gpus a year? Seems fairly healthy. It went down slightly overtime but I also imagine “good enough” lasts a lot longer now. Relatively flat 2014-2018 if you did a moving average.
     
    cybereality and IdiotInCharge like this.
  10. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    regarding the graph:

    also, not growing. Stagnant at best for the last 5-6 years.

    we're talking about hardware, not software sales.
     
  11. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,291
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    We cannot talk about one without the other.
     
    GoldenTiger and Factum like this.
  12. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    But sales went up.

    Also nVidia’s best selling card was the 1080 for Pascal. I don’t know how 50 million discrete GPUs a year and a $600+ GPU being the best selling card equates to a “niche” market. It’s basically main stream.
     
    GoldenTiger likes this.
  13. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    Sure you can. Because you can't meaningfully talk about them together.

    Gaming software can grow and fall independent of hardware sales. Since this is a hardware thread, it makes more sense for us to be looking at things from that perspective.

    if the argument is that gaming software is growing year over year, it seems pretty obvious that's not driving an increase in sales of hardware.

    One main conclusion to that is that people are gaming on older and older hardware before buying new ....the other conclusion is that an ever decreasing customer base is buying more games per capita.

    Either way, manufacturing companies dont make money off already sold hardware. If the market isn't growing (and it's not judging by both pc sales data and gpu sales data) then all the enthusiasm and excitement and sold out-ness of the latest and greatest that you see on sites like this (well, used to be on sites like this) and the like account for an insignificant representation of the overall market. We're a niche. A halo niche that manages to get more attention than we otherwise deserve, likely because the enthusiast niche dictates the only/primary brand recognition these companies have. Otherwise they'd be a faceless name associated with your pc appliance, easily swappable with another faceless supplier.
     
  14. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    8,979
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Sales went up for the Mining bubble.
     
  15. Darth Ender

    Darth Ender Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    215
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    3 quarters out of the last 11 showed this "sales went up" idea. That is not a trend in of itself. Definitely not when you see that it drops like a rock afterward back to following the trend it was following previously.

    Most "discrete" sales are in oem machines. I doubt anyone would attribute sales of big box pc's to enthusiasts in general. You might as well count the xbox and ps4 as enthusiast pc sales too then. There's some overlap ...not every pc enthusiast builds their own computers. But i'd say the vast majority aren't. They're just buying a computer.
     
  16. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Going off the lowest point on the graph there’s 40 million discrete GPUs sold a year. Approximately 80% are nVidia. Based on Pascal, the majority of the GPUs sold are 1080s in the $600 enthusiast range. Your arguement is weak.
     
    Factum likes this.
  17. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    8,979
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    Based on what evidence?
     
  18. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    nVidia quarterly financial reports. I should have worded it, the best selling card.

    Majority means something else, good catch. :)
     
    GoldenTiger and Factum like this.
  19. Snowdog

    Snowdog [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    8,979
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2006
    One quarter before the 1060 arrived? Because looking at Steam, they sold a LOT more of those. More 1050, 1050ti, and 1070's on Steam as well.
     
  20. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Maybe it was the best selling based on revenue. They can’t lie in quarterly reports. Regardless it’s no niche market.
     
  21. cybereality

    cybereality [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,501
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    To put things in perspective, the PS4, arguably one of the most successful consoles of all time, has sold around 100 million units lifetime.

    While we are talking about in the 50 million range for GPUs sold in a year. Big difference.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019 at 10:23 PM
    noko, ManofGod, Dayaks and 1 other person like this.
  22. rinaldo00

    rinaldo00 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,432
    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2005
    OK, maybe I no longer know how to read a graph but to me it looks like the y axis tops out at 25 million, how do you see 50?
     
  23. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Oh crap - I thought it was broken up by quarter looking on my phone. It’s by half years. Just ignore my posts... it was tiny and I saw Q.

    Same point stands regardless. They sell these high dollar cards in the millions.

    Remember the 970, it’s a bit cheaper starting at $330 iirc but they sold 3 million in the first quarter. (and then got sued for the 3.5GB issue haha)
     
    IdiotInCharge and GoldenTiger like this.
  24. rinaldo00

    rinaldo00 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,432
    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2005
    Wait, it is broken up by quarters. You said sales per year, not quarter, I forgot to add up 4 quarters of sales. Still dropping by a half in 9 years is not good.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019 at 9:55 PM
    Dayaks likes this.
  25. Dayaks

    Dayaks [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,928
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2012
    Yeah ok, so I wasn’t wrong just freaked myself out. Still had quarterly dividers. Here’s a yearly one for nVidia alone.

    8AA536B0-EB9A-42AD-A04F-97D4FA69DB4C.png
     
    GoldenTiger and cybereality like this.
  26. IdiotInCharge

    IdiotInCharge [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,291
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2003
    Bought two, ran in SLI (back when that worked), sold one, just put one in my revived ITX build, playing BF4 (have 1 and V, prefer 4), Apex Legends, Ring of Elysium, X-COM 2, Civ VI all fine at 1440p at >100FPS. Just have to make sure that I keep the settings in check. And this system makes me wish that someone made a good blower!
     
    Dayaks likes this.