Analyst: NVIDIA Lied about Its Cryptocurrency Earnings to Avoid Stock Crash

Discussion in 'HardForum Tech News' started by Megalith, Feb 2, 2019.

  1. Stimpy88

    Stimpy88 [H]ard|Gawd

    Messages:
    1,271
    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2004
    nGreedia would never lie, would they? :D
     
  2. R_Type

    R_Type Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    213
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2018
    Always interesting so see what setups people had churning away all day at the time! Did you manage to sell it all on successfully?
     
  3. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Don't think it would be hard to prove at all. Gaming is probably a stable predictable market.. just substract that vs actual and that is all.
    Im sure are communications about the fudging going on. Their borderline collapse in growth certainly feels like they lied.
    I think they will be sued, probably AMD as well, not sure if there are suggestions they lied too.
    To the non investor me this looks to be a particularly terrible lie, if I felt their exposure wasn't that large I would make completely different decisions for sure ( if i was an investor)
     
  4. steakman1971

    steakman1971 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,433
    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2005
    If the allegations are true and come to light, Nvidia senior management will be looking at jail time and the stock will get destroyed. I worked for a large software company that ended up with the CEO going to jail (he's still serving time). Our stock went from $25ish down to $5 in a single day. The SEC considered dissolving the company unless certain changes took place internally (we had to switch from our own HR-type software to something like PeopleSoft or SAP). A few senior management types went to jail or were fired (golden parachutes got punctured for some).
    I'm not an AMD or Nvidia fan boy. Right now, I would not touch Nvidia stock. (Can someone tell me why it rallied last week? They gave poor guidance for the next year...I was confused why it went up. I was expecting it to make a new low. Anyway, I digress...)
     
  5. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Nvidia is coming back down to earth: all they are is a company with one product, and no friends. They seem toxic in partnerships as they seem to lose them left and right.
    The only market the dominate is PC gaming, and even that its not enough to completely force the higher prices they are trying to shove in there.
    As far as the other AI applications and markets, those are probably shrinking or will be soon enough.
    AMD cancer-like custom silicon strategy seems to have been the better bet, they seem to be able to keep partners longer too.
     
  6. ManofGod

    ManofGod [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    11,055
    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2007
    Nvidia lied? !!!!!!!!! Yeah, would not be the first time and it will not be the last.
     
    viscountalpha, Darth Kyrie and noko like this.
  7. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    If they did on that scale, it might.
     
  8. noko

    noko [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,358
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    For mining Nvidia was a breeze, AMD became a breeze after they incorporated the Crypto driver stuff in their regular drivers. After that I went over a month on one Vega rig without touching it. The Beta Crypto driver for me was a nightmare. Wondering how the Radeon VII mines now? ? ? :sneaky:
     
  9. Skillz

    Skillz [H]ard DCOTY 2017

    Messages:
    21,989
    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2004
    You should fire up that Nvidia rig every once in a while on a BOINC GPU project to help Team [H] in the www.formula-boinc.org race.
     
  10. STEvil

    STEvil 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,819
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2000
    Came out on the plus side anyways. Still have the threadripper, VegaFE, 1060 6bgb, some of the 7900's, and two 290X's.

    Forgot to list other motherboards and cpu's, which still have most of them.
     
    R_Type likes this.
  11. geok1ng

    geok1ng 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,132
    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2007
    outside GPUs put into boards without video connections ( mining gpus), how can an expert tell if a given video card was sold for mining or gaming?
     
  12. bl4C3y3

    bl4C3y3 n00b

    Messages:
    41
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2016
    From an accounting perspective, it probably does not matter (or cannot be separated) … but from a business and strategy perspective, it is very important to know where the next opportunity might lie, and where the last one might have ended. Not knowing or analyzing this seems like a big oversight. Is that not why market research is done ?
    How much you talk about that or what predictions you will make public is another story … :)
     
  13. STEvil

    STEvil 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,819
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2000
    How does that have anything to do with what he asked? Words seem kind of mish-mashed together, are you a bot?
     
  14. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Telemetry probably.
    But also they might have channel information, such as sales by the pallet, or white box sales.
    But a proper analysis of gaming market vs actual sales gives you plenty of info. I doubt PC gaming market is one that swings by the billions in sales year after year.
    It is FAR from impossible 'not to know' even more so when this is information they need in order to function as a company.
    I think the story is growing legs, and I expect some suing to start soon.
     
  15. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    What? I thought it was perfectly understandable.
    In short: yes they know, because it is their job to know.
    In shorter: Nvidia is royally screwed if they lied... They WILL be found out if sued or investigated.
     
  16. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Somewhere in Nvidia there's some paper shredders working overtime, along with some computer backups and server "failing catastrophically" or being flooded.
     
    sleepybp and Darth Kyrie like this.
  17. Qthulu

    Qthulu [H]Lite

    Messages:
    103
    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2018
    If all this is true the SEC will make Jensen step down along with a hefty fine.
     
  18. STEvil

    STEvil 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,819
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2000
    He asked how an expert would know, not how nvidia would know.

    As in someone buying second hand.

    Nv would just look at total number of cards installed in the system, they dont care about single card gamers mining.
     
  19. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Took it to mean ' at nvidia' implied.
    The analist at the bank did whe he could of course... He wrote as much.
     
  20. tetris42

    tetris42 [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    4,518
    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    nVer.
     
  21. Olle P

    Olle P Limp Gawd

    Messages:
    331
    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2010
    As I've understood it the idea is that Nvidia (in their book keeping) took the difference and used it to cover the losses made after the cryto craze was over. (Nvidia "didn't produce more GPUs than they could sell", you know...)
    That way one can claim that viewed over the entire year the numbers add up, it's just that the swing before/after was a lot bigger.
     
  22. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    They have tons of inventory allegedly, which would mean they over produced.
    The whole point of what this analyst is saying was that they lied about the exposure to an unstable market.. of what became known as an unstable market anyway.
    Nvidia is still overpriced.
     
  23. Verge

    Verge [H]ardness Supreme

    Messages:
    6,302
    Joined:
    May 27, 2001
    That isn't really how it works, nvidia was adamant that crypto wasn't fueling their rapid growth... a lie. I believe there's already class action suits being filed.
     
  24. pillagenburn

    pillagenburn Gawd

    Messages:
    1,013
    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2006
    NVDA investors are getting a taste of crypto volatility - it's like being on a rollercoaster that didn't go through any OSHA inspections. You might live, or you might get launched into the parking lot when your seat belt fails.
     
  25. Uvaman2

    Uvaman2 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,143
    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Oh crap, so I looked it up, yeah its raining lawsuits. ( Might have read about it before and forgot) . One of them alleged senior executives including leather jacket were dumping stock at the right moment.
     
    N4CR likes this.
  26. Nobu

    Nobu 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,279
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2007
    Whether they can or not, nvidia indicated that they can (at least to some extent) when they said crypto is less than x% of revenue (or however they phrased it). This lawsuit is because someone believes that statement was false or misleading (either because they believe they couldn't know, or they believe nvidia knew but lied in some way).
     
  27. Grimlaking

    Grimlaking 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,934
    Joined:
    May 9, 2006
    Look if a company DIDN'T take advantage of the bitcoin mining blip they would have been STUPID. What they did that was wrong was hide how much better it made their bottom line look. Someone somewhere gave direction to lie about the impact to their bottom line.

    What they SHOULD have done is figured out how far out of scope their sales were, THEN take a percentage of that as 'error' and the rest as profit out of line to expectations and NON SUSTAINABLE and fucking reported it that way.

    "Due to mining we had an additional profit of 1.x billion dollars. Due to this being far out of line with what we expect to be able to sustain once the Bitcoin bubble breaks we are not declaring that profit as regular income. As such we are taking that excess profit and allocating it's spend into these areas of our company to allow for greater sustainable growth in the near to far term.

    Instead... they said. "LOOK AT US WE ARE TOTALLY AMAZING THIS ISN'T A FLUKE!" And now they get to shit the bed and blame it on the past. They did their future selves no favors and now the future selves get to eat ramen.
     
    N4CR, clockdogg, Darth Kyrie and 3 others like this.
  28. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,565
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    I agree and my first instinct is that this financial analyst over-simplified the entire thing.
     
  29. 1Nocturnal101

    1Nocturnal101 Gawd

    Messages:
    520
    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Curious, but did the guys harvesting those numbers discount people that were gaming and hashing? Or did they just calculate totals based on hashrates?

    I know speculation can be a part of journalism, but is it ok to ignore the full scope, or is it proper to just focus and assume someone's lying?

    I not going to impose conjecture about them lying or not, but through the telemetry data harvesting on drivers would NVidia have a better idea about who and how their cards are being used? There are probably quite a few analogies that can be made and refernces to there areas of computing like x series Intel numbers have to be Enterprise because that is what they were designed for so all the gamers are just lumped into workstation croud even though the extent of Enterprise is them streaming to twitch or making YouTube videos, I mean you can argue any which way.
     
  30. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,565
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    I can't get to the article, but that's not what I understood the author was claiming.

    My understanding was that the author believes NVidia, hurting from their loss of stock value, undervalued their earnings from the crpto-mining market, supposedly to make the recent downturn in crpto-mining not look so bad. As in "Yes crypto-mining going downhill will have an impact, but it won't be a big impact".

    So it's not that they falsified numbers to drive their stock up, it's that they are trying to underplay the impact of reduced sales to miners.
     
  31. Grimlaking

    Grimlaking 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,934
    Joined:
    May 9, 2006

    My point is if they had claimed realistic numbers from the start. But accounted for the fact that they were not realistic but would give them a long term boon in R&D and future production costs because they would invest that excess cash in the business. THEN they wouldn't be in the shithole they are in now. Yea hindsight is 20/20. That's all these analysts do.
     
  32. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,565
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008

    Wait, what shithole? The only shithole I can think off that NVidia is in, is a perceived weakness in the company because of a "loss" in stock value. But this is a company who, three years ago (2016), was valued at $20 a share on average, above $20 was a good run, below $20 was a decent time to buy. At that time the company had no debt, and deep pockets. The only thing the last ten years has seen is growth, expansion, and deeper pockets with relatively little debt. That isn't a shithole if you ask me. That isn't failure. All this downturn is for NVidia, is a natural return to realistic valuation following a very unnatural boom which it looks like they are riding out just fine.

    Other than a drop in stock price, do you see something concrete you can point too that says NVidia is in financial trouble because I do not see it ?

    https://www.google.com/search?q=NVidia+stock+quote+VVDA&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1

    Investors are fickle, or extremely pragmatic if you want to be generous. They are not betting on the best company or even on the most profitable company. They are betting on the company who is going to give them an opportunity to profit on the market. NVidia jumped in value by orders of magnitude and while the company did try to turn all of that boon into something sustainable, they have only been partially successful. But the big ride is over, the down-turn has started, NVidia's market value will diminish until it settles on something more realistic given what they have been successful in achieving and of course relative to the market and the economy.

    But I don't see them in any shithole. I just see them coming off an extraordinary high, the feeding frenzy is over for now, NVidia will remain NVidia and dwindle into the west, with Galadrial.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  33. Grimlaking

    Grimlaking 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    2,934
    Joined:
    May 9, 2006
    No sorry I wasn't trying to say Nvidia is in trouble. Other than potential trouble for stock price manipulation if the law wanted to dig into WHY they did what they did. But otherwise yea I agree as a company they are doing fine.
     
  34. lcpiper

    lcpiper [H]ardForum Junkie

    Messages:
    10,565
    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2008
    You aren't wrong, stoke price manipulation or even just falsifying financial reports could both be a shithole in and of themselves.

    But what I get from this article is an "analyst" creating click bait. But what can you accuse the writer of? Being a bad statistician?
     
  35. sparks

    sparks 2[H]4U

    Messages:
    3,206
    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2004
    This is just BS dreamed up by AMD ....N has never lied to its customers or anyone else (sarcasm BIG TIME)
    They have used overpriced video cards to invest in speculation and F'd us at every turn.