AMD's Stock Plummets, Worst Single-Day Drop In More Than A Decade

happymedium said:
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I think they just found out Vega will be slower than once thought and that big Vega will be delayed.
thoughts?
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Where does that shit article full of ads and an autoplaying video for a corsair keyboard say that?

As far as the stock dropping, meh, it always happens, and a 330% increase then a 29% drop isn't something I worry about. It'll go back up a bit tomorrow. And I own a little AMD stock ;)
 
razor1 said:
it dropped because next quarter outlook looks murky, drop in gross margins was hinted I think.
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You would think with Ryzen being a good chip, the stock would rise.
That's why I think it might have something to do with Vega,
 
AMD's stock price is also overvalued, calculated the outstanding share amounts, for what the company has right now, its way overvalued. And AMD being murky next quarter, just shows Ryzen isn't going to do everything for them in the short term, its just a step in the right direction.
 
happymedium said:
You would think with Ryzen being a good chip, the stock would rise.
That's why I think it might have something to do with Vega,
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Ryzen has been priced in, speculators are now thinking about where AMD will be 2 years from now. The market is always very quick to judge.
 
Stock price dropped because investors 1) know everything and they're panicking, or 2) most investors don't know shit. I'm leaning towards 2.

Yes, AMD's stock was/is overpriced but the stock dropping rapidly has nothing to do with Vega other than profits from Vega are unlikely to make much of a dent in Q2 revenue but will show up in Q3.
 
happymedium said:
You would think with Ryzen being a good chip, the stock would rise.
That's why I think it might have something to do with Vega,
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Ryzen is good but investors expected too much from it. So price overshot by a lot and this is the correction. Also it is going to take awhile for AMD to gain a stronger foothold in the server market.

I think AMD might be a good buy over the next few months, though there is the risk that Vega isn't very competitive which would probably cause a further dip. But right now I think this movement is not influenced by Vega at all.
 
I would argue it was more investors cashing out on their 330% gains... selling while it was up, let it drop, buy back in when its down, then profit on anticipation of Vega release. Same crap, different day.
 
happymedium said:
You would think with Ryzen being a good chip, the stock would rise.
That's why I think it might have something to do with Vega,
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Ryzen, Naples and Vega are all overhyped. And AMD in their full year 2017 outlook shows no profit and pretty much no change at all. Scorpio is what saves 2017 somewhat.

Forum fantasies and reality never tend to go hand in hand. Also why people investing with emotions got burned.

The Vega part and AI isn't even considered yet, when the AI bubble burst, then AMD will drop a lot more together with Nvidia.
 
Their stock is doing fine, and is no where near over-valued. This dip was to be expected. Wait until Naples hits market and hold on for the climb.
 
Briguyatx said:
I would argue it was more investors cashing out on their 330% gains... selling while it was up, let it drop, buy back in when its down, then profit on anticipation of Vega release. Same crap, different day.
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That's what I figured. Nothing in the financials justified the meteoric rise in the stock prices, but then there wasn't anything I saw in the report that screamed "SELL! SELL! SELL!" Probably more profit taking than anything. Still, even with that 29% drop, I still wish I had the cash to buy a bunch of shares when the price was below $2.00


Nihilus1 said:
The Vega leaks and RX 500 mediocrity are taking a toll.
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Serious investors (the ones that drive stock prices) don't look at benchmark sites. They look at sales and earnings. The fact that Rx5x0 isn't an NVIDIA killer doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is how much inventory AMD is moving, and what their cash flow looks like. I know there are some more nuanced things that go into investors' decisions, but benchmark scores are not one of them.
 
jardows said:
Serious investors (the ones that drive stock prices) don't look at benchmark sites. They look at sales and earnings. The fact that Rx5x0 isn't an NVIDIA killer doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is how much inventory AMD is moving, and what their cash flow looks like. I know there are some more nuanced things that go into investors' decisions, but benchmark scores are not one of them.
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They do like buzzwords tho. And like Nvidia, AMD is a GPU company and that must mean AI. Despite in reality AI is dominated by Intel and Nvidia. But both AMD and Nvidia stock is inflated with it unlike Intel. The result of automated trading I guess.
 
Objectively, the price dropped after the company filed their fiscal Q1 operating results. Some investors "didn't like" the guidance and results they saw - enough to sell. If they thought there was an additional immediate upside, they would have hung on to it (or bought more) - but AMD had conservative / sobering guidance for the upcoming quarters.

Despite the introduction of further new products, AMD see quarter over quarter growth slowing to 12% and the inability to reach profitability on a GAAP basis (they should still have a small profit on a non-GAAP basis). Given the expectations baked into the valuation before the drop, that's enough for a few to sell.
 
I just went through the transcript of the earnings call (you can google it). Looks to me that Ryzen is not doing well and there is not much upside for Vega. Guidance for next quarter does not move the needle for the company. Had Ryzen done well, the impact would have been felt in both Q1 numbers and Q2 guidance. Remember, they already have a pretty good idea how the second quarter will turn out, as they have seen all of April, they know the demand from the OEMs (who are launching Ryzen systems in Q2), and they have an idea on how Vega is going to do, i.e. when will it launch and how many units they will be able to sell. Their market share is so low, and their fanbase has been waiting for so long, it does not take a lot to move the needle, but the needle did not move.
 
Citigroup seems the most pessimistic at present time with a 4$ price target.

Citi analyst Christopher Danely says that while AMD announced a higher revenue outlook for Q2, it guided gross margins down 60 basis points quarter-over-quarter. AMD's days of inventory and valuation are at the all-time highs despite the company losing money, Danely tells investors in a post-earnings research note. The analyst reiterates a Sell rating on AMD with a $4 price target.
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"Q2 outlook, it's going up about $170 million or so sequentially. [..] the last few years, generally, Q1 to Q2, just the console side has gone up over $100 million or so. [..] Ryzen is contributing [] $50 million, $60 million, $70 million." Demand problem, or a ramp-up problem? How does Vega fit into that?
 
This is what happens when you talk about unreleased products before launch. People don't believe it because there's no way to test what you say.
VEGA this and that in marketing slides. The market is over it already and currently looking forward to Volta.

The journey into futility is right on track.
 
I mean, Plummet reason is sort of obvious. When you forecast a reduction in gross margin after launch of a high margin product (Ryzens)... Confidence and the stock is bound to fall.
 
Shintai said:
Ryzen, Naples and Vega are all overhyped. And AMD in their full year 2017 outlook shows no profit and pretty much no change at all. Scorpio is what saves 2017 somewhat.

Forum fantasies and reality never tend to go hand in hand. Also why people investing with emotions got burned.

The Vega part and AI isn't even considered yet, when the AI bubble burst, then AMD will drop a lot more together with Nvidia.
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Best forum fantasy yet :)
 
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