AMD to Regain 30% Desktop Market Share in 4Q18? That's Unlikely

[Megalith]

Industry sources have predicted that AMD’s global desktop processor market share could rebound to 30% in the fourth quarter, but numbers from Mercury Research suggest otherwise: AMD’s desktop share grew to 12.3% in 2Q18, and while that’s a steady increase from previous quarters, it’s a far cry from September’s prediction. “AMD's volumes would need to either be 250 percent higher in the quarter than they were last year, or Intel's shipments would need to decline 65 percent.”

McCarron's statements are telling. In order to reach 30 percent share, either AMD would have to more than triple its year-on-year volume, or Intel shipments would have to decline 65 percent in a very short amount of time. But the market is fluid. According to Intel, its shortage of 14nm processors comes courtesy of record demand, but the general consensus is that the 10nm delay has wreaked havoc on Intel's production scheduling.

 

[SixFootDuo]

I have a feeling that Intel is about to flex it's muscle and trounce AMD.

The thought of AMD releasing a 10 - 12 core desktop CPU is seriously exciting to me.

 

[Chris_B]

They probably would have had 30-40% years ago if not for intel bullying\threatening and paying off companies not to use amd products. Then again bulldozer and its failed siblings would have put a dent in that.

 

[deton8]

They probably would have had 30-40% years ago if not for intel bullying\threatening and paying off companies not to use amd products. Then again bulldozer and its failed siblings would have put a dent in that.

Still, if you are already entrenched a lot of places won't switch just because of inertia.

I'd like AMD to be able to hold onto and consolidate on the gains they're making this time. It seems like once every generation the stars align and they put out a competitive product at the same time Intel stumbles. I may not be alive the next time this happens

 

[jnemesh]

Industry sources have predicted that AMD’s global desktop processor market share could rebound to 30% in the fourth quarter, but numbers from Mercury Research suggest otherwise: AMD’s desktop share grew to 12.3% in 2Q18, and while that’s a steady increase from previous quarters, it’s a far cry from September’s prediction. “AMD's volumes would need to either be 250 percent higher in the quarter than they were last year, or Intel's shipments would need to decline 65 percent.”

McCarron's statements are telling. In order to reach 30 percent share, either AMD would have to more than triple its year-on-year volume, or Intel shipments would have to decline 65 percent in a very short amount of time. But the market is fluid. According to Intel, its shortage of 14nm processors comes courtesy of record demand, but the general consensus is that the 10nm delay has wreaked havoc on Intel's production scheduling.

Or...Intels shipments decline by 32.5% and AMD's rise by 125%. That scenario will get you to the same numbers and not be so far fetched.

 

[jnemesh]

I have a feeling that Intel is about to flex it's muscle and trounce AMD.

The thought of AMD releasing a 10 - 12 core desktop CPU is seriously exciting to me.

Based on what? By the time Intel gets to 10nm, AMD will be selling 7nm and getting ready for 5nm.

 

[Chris_B]

Based on what? By the time Intel gets to 10nm, AMD will be selling 7nm and getting ready for 5nm.

But is the intel 10nm actually 10nm and the amd 7nm actually 7nm? Seen a story a few days back saying the intel 10nm is equivalent to the amd 7nm, however that works.

 

[Oldmodder]

I am happy to be on a AMD machine again soon, already sourced a few of the cheaper parts.

GO reds GO !

 

[mesyn191]

But is the intel 10nm actually 10nm and the amd 7nm actually 7nm?

No but the names for any process released in the last 3yr or so at least are pure marketing and irrelevent.

What is relevent is performance, cost, and volumes and TSMC's 7nm was supposed to be pretty much the equivalent to Intel's 10nm in every way that matters. The thing is Intel's 10nm is currently broken and will be late and if the rumor mill is anything to go by in order to get any volume by late 2019 out Intel had to gimp their 10nm process significantly.

TSMC is going to have volume 7nm out late this year and will have a improved version out by this time next year so generally accepted that Intel has lost the process lead for now and the next couple of years at least. Its possible Intel gets it back when they release their 7nm but all the rumors involving that (which are few) aren't positive or optimistic.

 

[SixFootDuo]

Based on what? By the time Intel gets to 10nm, AMD will be selling 7nm and getting ready for 5nm.

Common sense?

Intel's coffers? You do know they are sitting on a few hundred billion dollars right? AMD? Yeah .... not so much.

nano meters is not the only growth metric.

Basically this can go a few different ways. Intel can decide, that hey, it's actually pretty nice to have all this money coming in. We can hire new people, we can do this, we can do that. We need to replace these older piece's of shit that starting to dry out like last years old elf shit that's getting in the way of real growth and innovation and ... move forward. Get competitive, release new exiting stuff, etc etc etc.

OR

They can do nothing and continue to decay, lose market share, sit on their asses and money and continue to think the old way. I mean, there is some truth to these stories that are coming out about AMD's new growth, some of the new numbers, market share, Intel's problems, etc etc.

But Intel is still the market leader by a massive massive amount. Intel posses 100x more of everything than AMD will ever have. Fact. AMD has 100 engineers, Intel has 1000. AMD has 10 Million for research, Intel has 10 Billion. That sorta thing.

BUT, it's not as cut and dry as the media would have you believe. I challenge anymore here to always seek out the cons of any news they find favorable. Example, AMD is gaining market share. Go and look for the opposing view. You have to make this conscience decision. Or, the news in your world will always be skewed. While great for you, it's not always going to be the best most accurate point of view.

I bring this up because I actually do do this and this AMD news is not exactly all roses. It's good and I'm happy for them. but there is a lot of misleading editorials and numbers being thrown around.

Me personally? I think Intel is going to get the old farts out of the way, get some fresh perspective and start getting with it. The 9900K is a really exciting product and I hope that sweet taste of those 8 cores in consumers hands, the demand, the performance, the success it brings, etc will get Intel's creative juices flowing and we see some really cool exciting stuff. Intel really does have the money to make shit happen overnight.

I pray to god AMD releases a mainstream desktop CPU with 10 or 12+ cores. I can only imagine Intel's response. I'm drooling thinking about the possibilities.

Also, if AMD can improve their memory speeds, interconnect speeds, some other I/O issues, IPC with their Ryzen 2+ or Ryzen 3 in 2019, I will def be a customer.

I'm not brand fanboy like most of you guys, I'm a performance fanboy. If AMD had released the 2080 ti, I would still have bought it. I could give a rats ass about any branding. I'm only interested in who will give me the best possible experience.

 

[c3k]

I just built a Ryzen machine. (See sig.) That old 4790k? Yeah, it's feeling its age. Sure, it runs. But, ya know what? A Threadripper would be better. So, my AMD cpu growth is more than 30% this year. And, I think it'll go higher.

 

[SixFootDuo]

I built my GF a Ryzen 1700 earlier this year, 32gb of ram, ASRock Taichi board, 960 EVO NVMe, nVidia 1060 6GB card ... she absolutely loves it.

I haven't looked but hoping I can still drop in a new AMD CPU's into her mobo to upgrade it next year. She would love more cores. She is a web developer and her workstation powers 3 x 32" monitors. Her Ryzen is kicking ass and taking names for sure.

 

[ccityinstaller]

I am happy to be on a AMD machine again soon, already sourced a few of the cheaper parts.

View attachment 109743
View attachment 109744


GO reds GO !

Please tell me you are aware that AMD uses high quality solder for their IHS, so there is no need to use CL products unless you like a stained waterblock..I used AC MX-4 with my loop and have had excellent results...I love CL products, but they are not needed here.

I built my GF a Ryzen 1700 earlier this year, 32gb of ram, ASRock Taichi board, 960 EVO NVMe, nVidia 1060 6GB card ... she absolutely loves it.

I haven't looked but hoping I can still drop in a new AMD CPU's into her mobo to upgrade it next year. She would love more cores. She is a web developer and her workstation powers 3 x 32" monitors. Her Ryzen is kicking ass and taking names for sure.

As long as the BIOS is updated, you are good to go. Zen 2 is looking mighty tasty...Even if the chips still top out at 8c/16t, if we can see 4.7Ghz+ on custom water I am selling my 2700 and upgrading again!

 

[Advil]

I would have said it's impossible a year ago.

Now? Maybe.

I havn't even LOOKED at AMD products of any kind until the Ryzen launch. I still wasn't super impressed with the first gen. But the 2200G and the 2700x fill a whole heck of a lot of needs at a better price point and feature set than Intel.

 

[Oldmodder]

Please tell me you are aware that AMD uses high quality solder for their IHS, so there is no need to use CL products unless you like a stained waterblock..I used AC MX-4 with my loop and have had excellent results...I love CL products, but they are not needed here

Not sure if i am going with this or the AC i have been using for a long time, this just fell into my shopping basket.

Not yet decided on the head i will use, but leaning towards the aquacomputer kryos next + vision.

Will be reusing the pump / rad / reservoir from the current rig, and as with this rig i will probably not be doing any OC.

 

[nightanole]

So what does 7nm AMD get me again? I really hate marketing....

 

[ManofGod]

Regardless of whatever comes of this prediction, AMD is kicking butt and taking names. About time too because they have needed to be competitive for a long, long time.

 

[DeathFromBelow]

They probably would have had 30-40% years ago if not for intel bullying\threatening and paying off companies not to use amd products. Then again bulldozer and its failed siblings would have put a dent in that.

Bulldozer looks pretty damn good after Intel's Spectre/Meltdown/TLBleed fixes. Intel's IPC advantage came at the cost of broken security.

 

[Dahkoht]

Does nobody remember the Pentium IV --> Athlon XP trouncing and what resulted after ?

Intel put their billions into actually better research/moving forward after resting on it laurels and the C2D was born and dominated AMD for a decade again.

While this time I hope AMD hangs around better than before , as I enjoy having machines of both types on my desk right now , how is it anyone think that Intel in a year or two won't do the same thing ?

 

[Chris_B]

So what does 7nm AMD get me again? I really hate marketing....

View attachment 109905

That's....pretty baffling. Surely you would think there would be a standard set so all the process sizes are the same across manufacturers. I look at that chart and just go blank, how can (for example) 7nm mean one thing at one fab and another thing at another?

A nanometre is one thousand-millionth of a metre...so how can this change depending on whos making it?

 

[nightanole]

That's....pretty baffling. Surely you would think there would be a standard set so all the process sizes are the same across manufacturers. I look at that chart and just go blank, how can (for example) 7nm mean one thing at one fab and another thing at another?

A nanometre is one thousand-millionth of a metre...so how can this change depending on whos making it?

Marketing. In reality the jump from 20 to 14 for samsung, was a step backwards, but they used a new transistor, so they had to call it something else, and it did perform 30% better than than 20nm, so they called it 14nm.

In reality, the last major rev, was intels 14nm.

But, if you take your good old 20nm, change the transistor, and reduce metal/gate pitch, you can fit 2-3x more transistors per square area, and boom, marketing has a pitch for "10nm".

 

[ICOM]

Based on what? By the time Intel gets to 10nm, AMD will be selling 7nm and getting ready for 5nm.

Burn!!!!!!!

 

[Freebyrd]

Common sense?

Intel's coffers? You do know they are sitting on a few hundred billion dollars right? AMD? Yeah .... not so much.

nano meters is not the only growth metric.

Basically this can go a few different ways. Intel can decide, that hey, it's actually pretty nice to have all this money coming in. We can hire new people, we can do this, we can do that. We need to replace these older piece's of shit that starting to dry out like last years old elf shit that's getting in the way of real growth and innovation and ... move forward. Get competitive, release new exiting stuff, etc etc etc.

OR

They can do nothing and continue to decay, lose market share, sit on their asses and money and continue to think the old way. I mean, there is some truth to these stories that are coming out about AMD's new growth, some of the new numbers, market share, Intel's problems, etc etc.

But Intel is still the market leader by a massive massive amount. Intel posses 100x more of everything than AMD will ever have. Fact. AMD has 100 engineers, Intel has 1000. AMD has 10 Million for research, Intel has 10 Billion. That sorta thing.

BUT, it's not as cut and dry as the media would have you believe. I challenge anymore here to always seek out the cons of any news they find favorable. Example, AMD is gaining market share. Go and look for the opposing view. You have to make this conscience decision. Or, the news in your world will always be skewed. While great for you, it's not always going to be the best most accurate point of view.

I bring this up because I actually do do this and this AMD news is not exactly all roses. It's good and I'm happy for them. but there is a lot of misleading editorials and numbers being thrown around.

Me personally? I think Intel is going to get the old farts out of the way, get some fresh perspective and start getting with it. The 9900K is a really exciting product and I hope that sweet taste of those 8 cores in consumers hands, the demand, the performance, the success it brings, etc will get Intel's creative juices flowing and we see some really cool exciting stuff. Intel really does have the money to make shit happen overnight.

I pray to god AMD releases a mainstream desktop CPU with 10 or 12+ cores. I can only imagine Intel's response. I'm drooling thinking about the possibilities.

Also, if AMD can improve their memory speeds, interconnect speeds, some other I/O issues, IPC with their Ryzen 2+ or Ryzen 3 in 2019, I will def be a customer.

I'm not brand fanboy like most of you guys, I'm a performance fanboy. If AMD had released the 2080 ti, I would still have bought it. I could give a rats ass about any branding. I'm only interested in who will give me the best possible experience.

 

[Freebyrd]

So where on earth did you come up with "Intel is sitting on a few hundred billion dollars..."? Maybe ~$100 Billion if you count all their manufacturing plants, land assets and such, but that may be more of a liability than benefit if they can't get a working 10nm product out the door before 2020.

This shows they have about $29.5B in current assets
https://www.stock-analysis-on.net/NASDAQ/Company/Intel-Corp/Financial-Statement/Assets

of which about $15B is in cash/short term investments:
https://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/cash_on_hand

Still that is much more than AMD has available, but then again if Intel has already spent a billion dollars on 10nm designs that they may have to fix up with the new "fixed" 10nm process designs just to be able to ship 10nm parts in 2020, how will that compete with 7nm Zen 2 parts due to ship in 2019?

https://www.semiaccurate.com/2018/08/02/intel-guts-10nm-to-get-it-out-the-door/

Forrest Norrod SVP & GM, Enterprise, Embedded, & Semicustom at AMD

“Our plan for the Naples-Rome-Milan roadmap was based on assumptions around Intel’s roadmap and our estimation of what would we do if we were Intel,” Norrod continues. “We thought deeply about what they are like, what they are not like, what their culture is and what their likely reactions are, and we planned against a very aggressive Intel roadmap, and I really Rome and Milan and what is after them against what we thought Intel could do. And then, we come to find out that they can’t do what we thought they might be able to. And so, we have an incredible opportunity. Rome was designed to compete favorably with “Ice Lake” Xeons, but it is not going to be competing against that chip. We are incredibly excited, and it is all coming together at one point. We have reintroduced ourselves to the market, gotten the initial traction and wins, we got the initial customer support, and we validated that AMD is a safe choice with an effective processor. With the Rome processor and process, we are going to be in an incredible position going forward.”

https://www.nextplatform.com/2018/06/20/amds-epyc-return-to-the-datacenter-ring/

Server space is where the big money is made and that should be what Intel is most worried about. Intel will happily cede 30% desktop market share if that keeps AMD under 20% Server market share by 4Q 2019.

 

[Burticus]

So while I'm not an exclusive AMD fanboy, I go back and forth, but a resurgent AMD is absolutely the thing we all needed. Competition is the consumer's friend. If AMD had (and don't get cocky, Red team fanatics, it could still go down the tubes) gone totallyl down the drain... Intel without competition would be releasing 2% CPU improvements every other year and requiring a new motherboard each time.

But that's really just the enthusiast segment.... Intel still totally owns the corporate desktop/laptop/server markets. AMD is just an annoying insect to them that is just slowly growing larger and getting more attention.

However I am currently enjoying the hell out of my Ryzen 1700 and 2700x systems with no plans for upgrades anytime soon... but if I do want to upgrade, at least there is a chance with a BIOS update I can do it without replacing everything.

 

[nubbin77]

Freebyrd, I came to say the same thing. I wish people would read a financial statement before spouting off and making up random big numbers. The information is readily available. Just go look at it before making up nonsense. It takes away from your point.

 

[Krenum]

So what does 7nm AMD get me again? I really hate marketing....

View attachment 109905

Faster transfer speeds.


Also, come 7nm from AMD in January, they're gonna have Intel by the balls from a pricing standpoint.

 

[SixFootDuo]

So where on earth did you come up with "Intel is sitting on a few hundred billion dollars..."? Maybe ~$100 Billion if you count all their manufacturing plants, land assets and such, but that may be more of a liability than benefit if they can't get a working 10nm product out the door before 2020.

This shows they have about $29.5B in current assets
https://www.stock-analysis-on.net/NASDAQ/Company/Intel-Corp/Financial-Statement/Assets

of which about $15B is in cash/short term investments:
https://ycharts.com/companies/INTC/cash_on_hand

Still that is much more than AMD has available, but then again if Intel has already spent a billion dollars on 10nm designs that they may have to fix up with the new "fixed" 10nm process designs just to be able to ship 10nm parts in 2020, how will that compete with 7nm Zen 2 parts due to ship in 2019?

https://www.semiaccurate.com/2018/08/02/intel-guts-10nm-to-get-it-out-the-door/

Forrest Norrod SVP & GM, Enterprise, Embedded, & Semicustom at AMD

“Our plan for the Naples-Rome-Milan roadmap was based on assumptions around Intel’s roadmap and our estimation of what would we do if we were Intel,” Norrod continues. “We thought deeply about what they are like, what they are not like, what their culture is and what their likely reactions are, and we planned against a very aggressive Intel roadmap, and I really Rome and Milan and what is after them against what we thought Intel could do. And then, we come to find out that they can’t do what we thought they might be able to. And so, we have an incredible opportunity. Rome was designed to compete favorably with “Ice Lake” Xeons, but it is not going to be competing against that chip. We are incredibly excited, and it is all coming together at one point. We have reintroduced ourselves to the market, gotten the initial traction and wins, we got the initial customer support, and we validated that AMD is a safe choice with an effective processor. With the Rome processor and process, we are going to be in an incredible position going forward.”

https://www.nextplatform.com/2018/06/20/amds-epyc-return-to-the-datacenter-ring/

Server space is where the big money is made and that should be what Intel is most worried about. Intel will happily cede 30% desktop market share if that keeps AMD under 20% Server market share by 4Q 2019.

INTEL - Revenue: 72.76 billion USD ( 2017)

AMD - Revenue: 4.33 billion USD ( 2017)

I was just trying to provide some perspective 200 Billion comment. I love that AMD is getting with it. The 9900K is a direct response.

 

[NKD]

INTEL - Revenue: 72.76 billion USD ( 2017)

AMD - Revenue: 4.33 billion USD ( 2017)

I was just trying to provide some perspective 200 Billion comment. I love that AMD is getting with it. The 9900K is a direct response.

I think 9900k is their best attempt before amd comes out swinging with zen2. Because intel cant do much until they can fully ramp up their 10nm for the next chip. Probably trying to get what they can before zen 2 is launched.

 

[Flogger23m]

They probably would have had 30-40% years ago if not for intel bullying\threatening and paying off companies not to use amd products. Then again bulldozer and its failed siblings would have put a dent in that.

For whatever it is worth, there are a number of Ryzen pre-built desktops at Costco and Best Buy currently. I was at Costco the other day and they had two low end gaming PCs, both with Ryzen. Best Buy was similar. If I recall one had a mid range GPU (GTX 1060 or something). HP was one of the brands, if I recall Dell was the other.

 

[nightanole]

For whatever it is worth, there are a number of Ryzen pre-built desktops at Costco and Best Buy currently. I was at Costco the other day and they had two low end gaming PCs, both with Ryzen. Best Buy was similar. If I recall one had a mid range GPU (GTX 1060 or something). HP was one of the brands, if I recall Dell was the other.

Yea, when you can run fortnite without a gpu, you have something special. Intel just sucks when it comes to integrated graphics. Oh goodie i got an i7 notebook, without a gpu... Spreadsheets here i come.

 

[sirmonkey1985]

I think 9900k is their best attempt before amd comes out swinging with zen2. Because intel cant do much until they can fully ramp up their 10nm for the next chip. Probably trying to get what they can before zen 2 is launched.

that's my thinking as well. i'm not even sure the move to 10nm will help improve performance all that much either.. once the hardware fixes go in for all the security issues i think we'll truly see where intels architecture should of been at.