AMD Stock Downgraded, Bitmain Releasing Ethereum ASIC Miner

Master_shake_ said:
AMD says that's not true.



https://www.barrons.com/articles/amd-refutes-crypto-dependency-claims-1522175669
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I simply don’t believe it.

That’s corporate silver tonguge.

Neither Nvidia nor AMD have any incentive to credit a potentially temporary mining craze on record 2017 profits. No no no. It surely must be all other factors.


Crypto mining is why there were no AMD cards available anywhere for the better part of 2017 and why prices were $400-$500 for two year old used cards that MSRPed for $225 at launch. Same thing for Vega.


Read this post for a more detailed version of my sentiment on the matter.
https://hardforum.com/threads/wild-...-on-april-12th.1954370/page-3#post-1043549857
 
Archaea said:
I simply don’t believe it.

That’s corporate silver tonguge.

Neither Nvidia nor AMD have any incentive to credit a potentially temporary mining craze on record 2017 profits. No no no. It surely must be all other factors.


Crypto mining is why there were no AMD cards available anywhere for the better part of 2017 and why prices were $400-$500 for used cards that MSRPed for $225 over that same span. As I explained previously in this thread, same thing for Vega.
Click to expand...

they are legally required to tell the truth on earnings calls.

They can literally not lie.
 
Proof will be if crypto dies or goes into hibernation this year. Simply compare 2017 AMD and Nvidia GPU sales to 2018 AMD and Nvidia GPU sales. Then see if the difference in sales is single digit.

The concept is laughable.

PS—if crypto picks back up again that comparison won’t work.
 
Archaea said:
Proof will be if crypto dies or goes into hibernation this year. Simply compare 2017 AMD and Nvidia GPU sales to 2018 AMD and Nvidia GPU sales.

If crypto picks back up again that comparison won’t work.
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i really hope it crashes in to the ground.

i wonder how much of an impact crypto fire sales will have on the gpu market.
 
Master_shake_ said:
i really hope it crashes in to the ground.

i wonder how much of an impact crypto fire sales will have on the gpu market.
Click to expand...

It wont crash but it will certainy be in bear market for a little bit. Like bitcoin was in 2013-2015. Bull years followed with bear year or two and then bull years again. Crypto is not going to die, you can bet on that.
 
Archaea said:
I simply don’t believe it.

That’s corporate silver tonguge.

Neither Nvidia nor AMD have any incentive to credit a potentially temporary mining craze on record 2017 profits. No no no. It surely must be all other factors.


Crypto mining is why there were no AMD cards available anywhere for the better part of 2017 and why prices were $400-$500 for two year old used cards that MSRPed for $225 at launch. Same thing for Vega.


Read this post for a more detailed version of my sentiment on the matter.
https://hardforum.com/threads/wild-...-on-april-12th.1954370/page-3#post-1043549857
Click to expand...

It wasn't just amd cards. Nvidia cards were hard to find as well.
 
I bet bitmain has already been mining with the asics for a couple months now.
 
Many of you draw way to strong of a correlation between what is happening in the world and a corporation's stock price.

Stocks can surge and fall dramatically based on shareholder whims.

I invested in NVidia in 2007, the very next day NVidia announced that because of problems in the GPU package of a mobile chipset they had been selling to laptop makers, they weren't going to make any profits for a quarter, maybe longer. Their stock price dropped 35% overnight almost and slide from just under $20 a share to under $5 within days. So I bought more, I got my investment target out of it. The point being, investors sold like a frenzy dumping it, loosing money doing it in some cases, and it was because their investment wasn't going to make them money in the short term.

Look at NVidia now? Under $5 in 20017 to over $250 awhile back, sliding to today's, $220ish. A company's stock price is 1/3rd company worth, 2/3rds investor confidence.

If AMD is down, and it's slid a little, it just means you should think about buying.

Go look at their stock history and set the table to Max. In hard times AMD is a sub $5 dollar stock. In good times they shoot up much higher and can top $45 a share. AMD is volatile and has been very volatile the last few years. But when you look at their latest drop today, it's no lower then it's been several times over the last few years. At the same time, people talk about the cryptocurrency crazy and guess what, AMD has been just as high before when BITCOIN wasn't crazy high.

It's not about a new card or a new architecture or a new use that boosts sales, it's about investor confidence and greed.

Do I think I can make money off this company?

About 5 weeks ago they had dropped to $11.70 and I bought 500 shares, they dropped again and I bought another 500 at $11.23. Today I bought another 500 at $9.93. If AMD keeps dropping I still have more money to buy more up because I don't think AMD is going to tank.

Every time I buy while the price is dropping, I am lowering my average cost per share. 500 @ $11.70 = $5,850, 500 @ $11.23 = $5,615, 500 @ 9.93 = $4,965, the total invested is $16,430, divided by 1500 shares is an average share price of $10.95.

I would like to make 15% off my investment, at the original price of $11.70 a share I need the price to climb to $13.46, now I need $12.60. Let's worse case it and say they continue to drop to a typical $5 a share price point, at that price I can double my shares owned for $7,500 and my investment will be $23,930 with 3000 shares at an average share price of $7.98 a share, my 15% target would now be $9.17.

Now look at that chart again and tell me how often AMD is over $9.25 a share? And what happens if AMD surges well past $9.25. I intended this to be a short term investment, Uncle Sam will want capitol gains on my 15% target. If I have to hang onto it for over a year fine, I won't have to pay capitol gains which means I can still make what I want at a lower price point.

So this i show I do it. Don't go thinking you should do it my way, you don't even know me why would you think I'm a financial savant. I'm just doing it the way it feels right for me. But in any of these numbers and plans do you see "Ryzen V2", "Etherium Rage" or anything at all about the actual shit AMD is actually doing or how the world is using their products?

Call it a leap of faith. I'm betting on a squirrelly company who has a volatile stock history of ups and down, because the rules are simple ........ buy low, sell high.

Call me crazy but every investment that makes money was a "smart" investment. Maybe mining will drive the next spike, if so, all the better. I really don't care what does it. Fake news from Russia is fine with me.

So that's how I see it.
 
lcpiper said:
Many of you draw way to strong of a correlation between what is happening in the world and a corporation's stock price.

Stocks can surge and fall dramatically based on shareholder whims.

I invested in NVidia in 2007, the very next day NVidia announced that because of problems in the GPU package of a mobile chipset they had been selling to laptop makers, they weren't going to make any profits for a quarter, maybe longer. Their stock price dropped 35% overnight almost and slide from just under $20 a share to under $5 within days. So I bought more, I got my investment target out of it. The point being, investors sold like a frenzy dumping it, loosing money doing it in some cases, and it was because their investment wasn't going to make them money in the short term.

Look at NVidia now? Under $5 in 20017 to over $250 awhile back, sliding to today's, $220ish. A company's stock price is 1/3rd company worth, 2/3rds investor confidence.

If AMD is down, and it's slid a little, it just means you should think about buying.

Go look at their stock history and set the table to Max. In hard times AMD is a sub $5 dollar stock. In good times they shoot up much higher and can top $45 a share. AMD is volatile and has been very volatile the last few years. But when you look at their latest drop today, it's no lower then it's been several times over the last few years. At the same time, people talk about the cryptocurrency crazy and guess what, AMD has been just as high before when BITCOIN wasn't crazy high.

It's not about a new card or a new architecture or a new use that boosts sales, it's about investor confidence and greed.

Do I think I can make money off this company?

About 5 weeks ago they had dropped to $11.70 and I bought 500 shares, they dropped again and I bought another 500 at $11.23. Today I bought another 500 at $9.93. If AMD keeps dropping I still have more money to buy more up because I don't think AMD is going to tank.

Every time I buy while the price is dropping, I am lowering my average cost per share. 500 @ $11.70 = $5,850, 500 @ $11.23 = $5,615, 500 @ 9.93 = $4,965, the total invested is $16,430, divided by 1500 shares is an average share price of $10.95.

I would like to make 15% off my investment, at the original price of $11.70 a share I need the price to climb to $13.46, now I need $12.60. Let's worse case it and say they continue to drop to a typical $5 a share price point, at that price I can double my shares owned for $7,500 and my investment will be $23,930 with 3000 shares at an average share price of $7.98 a share, my 15% target would now be $9.17.

Now look at that chart again and tell me how often AMD is over $9.25 a share? And what happens if AMD surges well past $9.25. I intended this to be a short term investment, Uncle Sam will want capitol gains on my 15% target. If I have to hang onto it for over a year fine, I won't have to pay capitol gains which means I can still make what I want at a lower price point.

So this i show I do it. Don't go thinking you should do it my way, you don't even know me why would you think I'm a financial savant. I'm just doing it the way it feels right for me. But in any of these numbers and plans do you see "Ryzen V2", "Etherium Rage" or anything at all about the actual shit AMD is actually doing or how the world is using their products?

Call it a leap of faith. I'm betting on a squirrelly company who has a volatile stock history of ups and down, because the rules are simple ........ buy low, sell high.

Call me crazy but every investment that makes money was a "smart" investment. Maybe mining will drive the next spike, if so, all the better. I really don't care what does it. Fake news from Russia is fine with me.

So that's how I see it.
Click to expand...


last time AMD dropped to $8 I thought it was a deal. I bought quite a few shares.
It dropped to $2 a share and hung out there for a few years.

good luck...

I do agree with you that stock prices are based on investor whims as much as they are company finances. trouble is, is your line of thinking inline with the whim of the rest of the investors?

I pretty much stopped trying to invest in individual stocks, and started investing in indexes and funds.
 
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Archaea said:
last time AMD dropped to $8 I thought it was a deal. I bought quite a few shares.
It dropped to $2 a share and hung out there for a few years.

good luck...

I do agree with you that stock prices are based on investor whims as much as they are company finances. trouble is, is your line of thinking inline with the whim of the rest of the investors?

I pretty much stopped trying to invest in individual stocks, and started investing in indexes and funds.
Click to expand...

The market is at a serious inflection point, it really matters not what AMD does now... due to funds and indexes like you said. When the market gets pressured, everything goes to hell together these days.
 
Verge said:
The market is at a serious inflection point, it really matters not what AMD does now... due to funds and indexes like you said. When the market gets pressured, everything goes to hell together these days.
Click to expand...

I always have believed that sometimes a stock moves "on it's own merits" and sometimes it moves "with the rest of the market". Although AMD has been dropping over the last several weeks, the latest looks like the market and perhaps the individual stock as well. Usually the market as a whole will correct sooner or later. I'm also bettering AMD will as well.

So yes, I'm looking for another upturn, I may not get it right away. I may have to wait this out, let AMD drop to whatever the new low will be, then really take the big leap and double down on that sucker to have a decent chance of pulling my money out of it at profit. I've pulled it off before, but it doesn't take really great big balls to reinvest in CISCO and NVidia, they are really solid companies that are carrying cash not debt.
 
lcpiper said:
I always have believed that sometimes a stock moves "on it's own merits" and sometimes it moves "with the rest of the market". Although AMD has been dropping over the last several weeks, the latest looks like the market and perhaps the individual stock as well. Usually the market as a whole will correct sooner or later. I'm also bettering AMD will as well.

So yes, I'm looking for another upturn, I may not get it right away. I may have to wait this out, let AMD drop to whatever the new low will be, then really take the big leap and double down on that sucker to have a decent chance of pulling my money out of it at profit. I've pulled it off before, but it doesn't take really great big balls to reinvest in CISCO and NVidia, they are really solid companies that are carrying cash not debt.
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If all the semi ETFs are down, it's gonna take some serious buying of just AMD to correct that. Not saying it doesn't happen, it happens every day. But Tech sector as a whole is trash all week... and so follows AMD. Seems like several posts in here(not you) are implying AMD is getting hammered this week by it's own merit.
 
Verge said:
If all the semi ETFs are down, it's gonna take some serious buying of just AMD to correct that. Not saying it doesn't happen, it happens every day. But Tech sector as a whole is trash all week... and so follows AMD. Seems like several posts in here(not you) are implying AMD is getting hammered this week by it's own merit.
Click to expand...


Exactly, and when you look at the articles from investment firms, they are still pointing at cryptomining and the recent vulnerability news but I don't really think that's it at all. I think most of the movement is straight up market pressure.
 
Archaea said:
I simply don’t believe it.

That’s corporate silver tonguge.

Neither Nvidia nor AMD have any incentive to credit a potentially temporary mining craze on record 2017 profits. No no no. It surely must be all other factors.


Crypto mining is why there were no AMD cards available anywhere for the better part of 2017 and why prices were $400-$500 for two year old used cards that MSRPed for $225 at launch. Same thing for Vega.


Read this post for a more detailed version of my sentiment on the matter.
https://hardforum.com/threads/wild-...-on-april-12th.1954370/page-3#post-1043549857
Click to expand...
Lisa said fraction of a percent of sales.. She can't lie or investors nail her.
 
N4CR said:
Lisa said fraction of a percent of sales.. She can't lie or investors nail her.
Click to expand...


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NKD said:
All I see is empty shelves for both. Haha
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Mmmmmhmmm

Those were pics taken in January at our local MicroCenter in Kansas City.

Not one GPU.

Not one 540, 550, 560, 570, 580, Vega56, Vega 64, Vega FE

Not one 1050, 1050ti, 1060, 1070, 1080, 1080ti, Titan

NOT ONE GPU
(not even lower level units that weren't profitable -- all were swept up in the late 2017 early 2018 crypto mining gold rush fever)


At this point weren't the RX 4xx and RX5 xx series coming up on two years old? Completely cleaned out for months on end through the end of Q4 and beginning of Q1, and selling like hotcakes through Q2, Q3, and early Q4 -- enough to make used market RX5xx prices double original new, retail, MSRP. Heck the whole reason I even took notice to look into mining last June is because I noticed the huge shortage of GPUs, which was constantly being attributed to crypto mining and I thought - if there is this much demand for GPUs, which I don't remember ever seeing before - there must be something to this crypto thing. I better check it out. That was in June 2017, and I was very late to the party.



-- but hey!

“A fraction of a percentage.”

LOL



-----------
SILVER TONGUED FOXES, says I.
 
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Archaea said:
Mmmmmhmmm

Those were pics taken in January at our local MicroCenter in Kansas City.

Not one GPU.

Not one 540, 550, 560, 570, 580, Vega56, Vega 64, Vega FE

Not one 1050, 1050ti, 1060, 1070, 1080, 1080ti, Titan

NOT ONE GPU
(not even lower level units that weren't profitable -- all were swept up in the late 2017 early 2018 crypto mining gold rush fever)


At this point weren't the RX 4xx and RX5 xx series coming up on two years old? Completely cleaned out for months on end through the end of Q4 and beginning of Q1, and selling like hotcakes through Q2, Q3, and early Q4 -- enough to make used market RX5xx prices double original new, retail, MSRP. Heck the whole reason I even took notice to look into mining last June is because I noticed the huge shortage of GPUs, which was constantly being attributed to crypto mining and I thought - if there is this much demand for GPUs, which I don't remember ever seeing before - there must be something to this crypto thing. I better check it out. That was in June 2017, and I was very late to the party.



-- but hey!

“A fraction of a percentage.”

LOL



-----------
SILVER TONGUED FOXES, says I.
Click to expand...

I'm going to take a wild guess here that you didn't even remotely take into account the lack of choices in the used market. I'm more than willing to bet that's exactly where most of the crypto purchases were done originally since that was by far the best for the money at the time. With the secondhand market wiped out, it literally pushed more people to new card purchases who would normally have gone with second hand which in turn wiped out stocks of new cards due to higher than usual demand. Along with that included miners buying new cards as well for various reasons but not to the extent that people think.

Something similar happened several years ago with the used car market in the US with a certain government program called Cash for Clunkers. What that program did was remove a ton of perfectly usable second hand cars from the used car market because the government got the cars traded in for that and destroyed them which inflated the prices in the used car market for a while. What it also did was cause a run on new cars which was actually the purpose of the shitty program.
 
SO AMD says mining only amounts to a single digit percentage. We'll go worst-case and say 9%.

Basically how AMD gets that figure is as such:


2016: We made 500 million in GPU sales: a 5% increase over last year.
2017: We made 530 million in GPU sales: a 6% increase over least year.
2018: We made 615 million in GPU sales: a 16% increase over last year!

So, with normal growth, we expected an increase of 7% due to the momentum of growth from 2016, but instead we got 16%, which means a 9% growth can be attributed to Mining.

What they DON'T tell you is that they refused to manufacture more chips, and 100% of their stock flew off the shelves and realistically they could have made MUCH MUCH more if they chose to manufacture more chips in time, so miners bought up nearly 90% of their stock, with gamers nabbing the remaining 10%, so 90% of the company's 615 million came from mining, BUT they only count the additional growth, not the actual source of dollars.
 
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