AMD Reported Its Q4 and Annual 2018 Financial Results

Wowsa, the gem in this to me is the WSA 7th amendment information.

"The amendment provides AMD full flexibility for wafer purchases from any foundry at the 7nm node and beyond without any one-time payments or royalties"

AMD no longer has to pay GF for wafers purchased from TSMC on their 7nm node and beyond. This is a huge benefit to the company as previously they had to pay GF if they bought wafers from someone else for any reason.
Wording also means that AMD does not have to buy GF wafers if they ever do do another node shrink. But from the looks of things

"GF continues to be a long-term strategic partner to AMD for the 12nm node and above and the amendment establishes purchase commitments and pricing at 12 nm and above for the years 2019 through 2021."

This means that AMD still has obligations to buy 12nm wafers and will be releasing things on the 12nm node and above for the next two years at least. What these are is a point in speculation (chipsets? CPU's? mobile stuff? i/o chiplets?). but the important bit is 12nm isn't going away anytime soon.
 
shad0w4life said:
Their PE is insane , and they lowered their guidance for Q1 and STILL shot up around %15 which is odd. Stock is a lot of speculators it seems
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One part is coming from speculators, the other comes from the exceptional consistency they've been showing lately, they are very conservative and now Lisa Su just gained Wall Street's trust
 
Atearen said:
One part is coming from speculators, the other comes from the exceptional consistency they've been showing lately, they are very conservative and now Lisa Su just gained Wall Street's trust
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They need to over double their earnings to get into "reasonable" territory though, I'm still baffled that they reduced their forecast and stock went up.
 
Sindalis said:
Wowsa, the gem in this to me is the WSA 7th amendment information.

"The amendment provides AMD full flexibility for wafer purchases from any foundry at the 7nm node and beyond without any one-time payments or royalties"

AMD no longer has to pay GF for wafers purchased from TSMC on their 7nm node and beyond. This is a huge benefit to the company as previously they had to pay GF if they bought wafers from someone else for any reason.
Wording also means that AMD does not have to buy GF wafers if they ever do do another node shrink. But from the looks of things

"GF continues to be a long-term strategic partner to AMD for the 12nm node and above and the amendment establishes purchase commitments and pricing at 12 nm and above for the years 2019 through 2021."

This means that AMD still has obligations to buy 12nm wafers and will be releasing things on the 12nm node and above for the next two years at least. What these are is a point in speculation (chipsets? CPU's? mobile stuff? i/o chiplets?). but the important bit is 12nm isn't going away anytime soon.
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Yeah, this change was probably inevitable after GloFo announced they were dropping their attempts at 7nm back in August.
 
shad0w4life said:
They need to over double their earnings to get into "reasonable" territory though, I'm still baffled that they reduced their forecast and stock went up.
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Never can get a read on big investors, reason why I let someone else handle my portfolio. My best guess is investors have to put their money somewhere and if they're predicting a recession they would put their money where it will hold value. Then switch investments when bargains are to be had.
 
shad0w4life said:
Their PE is insane , and they lowered their guidance for Q1 and STILL shot up around %15 which is odd. Stock is a lot of speculators it seems
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Price to earnings doesn't mean shit if the company is in turn around (AMD) or growth mode (Amazon/Google).
P/E is mostly relevant to established companies that have turned a reasonable profit for years.
Note that even Amazon does not have a good P/E because they invest heavily in future growth instead of returning to shareholders.
 
Mega6 said:
Pe matters why? look at amazon and Tesla. Nobody cares about theirs because of POTENTIAL.
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Stocks will always eventually revert to value, so P/E matters at the end of the day. I would argue Tesla is still overvalued despite potential, because it has no business with that valuation compared to BMW, GM, and Ford, who are also building electric cars. Just because some investors want to grant a valuation based on “potential” doesn’t mean it’s not massively vulnerable to an earnings miss or mean reversion.
 
HockeyJon said:
Stocks will always eventually revert to value, so P/E matters at the end of the day. I would argue Tesla is still overvalued despite potential, because it has no business with that valuation compared to BMW, GM, and Ford, who are also building electric cars. Just because some investors want to grant a valuation based on “potential” doesn’t mean it’s not massively vulnerable to an earnings miss or mean reversion.
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Maybe, I would not say always. This is where sell high comes in. Timing is everything. Not everyone is on the Buffet buy and hold forever strategy. He lost his ass on Apple recently. It may come back but time is money and I don't have forever.
 
Mega6 said:
Maybe, I would not say always. This is where sell high comes in. Timing is everything. Not everyone is on the Buffet buy and hold forever strategy. He lost his ass on Apple recently. It may come back but time is money and I don't have forever.
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Timing the market is difficult, if not impossible, for most people, particularly retail investors, thanks to human psychology (it’ll go another dollar higher I’m sure, then I’ll sell....ok, one more dollar....oh it just dipped, it’ll get back up and then I’ll sell, etc, rinse, repeat). Sure, some people might get lucky, but me personally, I’m not going to bother trying to go head to head against Goldman Sachs’ super computers sitting outside of the NYSE. Rules based investing will win every time over the course of the typical investing career.

As for Buffet, he plays the long game. He hasn’t lost a cent on Apple, particularly because he hasn’t sold, but given their cash hoard and revenue growth, it’s more likely than not that their enterprise value should expand over time, and they do pay a dividend so you’re paid to wait.

Best of luck with your investing goals either way.
 
HockeyJon said:
Timing the market is difficult, if not impossible, for most people, particularly retail investors, thanks to human psychology (it’ll go another dollar higher I’m sure, then I’ll sell....ok, one more dollar....oh it just dipped, it’ll get back up and then I’ll sell, etc, rinse, repeat). Sure, some people might get lucky, but me personally, I’m not going to bother trying to go head to head against Goldman Sachs’ super computers sitting outside of the NYSE. Rules based investing will win every time over the course of the typical investing career.

As for Buffet, he plays the long game. He hasn’t lost a cent on Apple, particularly because he hasn’t sold, but given their cash hoard and revenue growth, it’s more likely than not that their enterprise value should expand over time, and they do pay a dividend so you’re paid to wait.

Best of luck with your investing goals either way.
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Your right I put that wrong. Buffet missed out on a good peak gain. And yes, timing is real tough. I am just taking a more active trading style. A great last two days for AMD and myself. Thanks and good luck to you as well.
 
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