AMD Q3 "Earnings" - What's your best guess?

J

jwlangs

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AMD is scheduled to report their Q3 '07 earnings after the market closes Thursday evening on October 18th. This topic's always fun, I'm gonna say a net loss of $400 million, anybody else?
 
I haven't been paying attention. But I thought they showed an improvement this quarter. And they're up 1.22 percent as we speak. That's always a good sign.
 
AMD performs well in second quarter microprocessor market shares, says iSuppli

"iSuppli Corp.'s final estimate of microprocessor market share in the second quarter reveals Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) made greater gains than originally thought. AMD in the second quarter of 2007 gained 2.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter to take a 13.4 percent share of overall microprocessor revenue. Share is increasingly important in the microprocessor market, as AMD and Intel apply ever more severe pricing pressure."

http://semiconductors.tekrati.com/research/news.asp?id=9347
 
I've read a $350 million loss speculated, but including "special charges" or other accounting tricks, i'd guess closer to another $500 million loss.
 
vista_blista said:
AMD performs well in second quarter microprocessor market shares, says iSuppli

"iSuppli Corp.'s final estimate of microprocessor market share in the second quarter reveals Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) made greater gains than originally thought. AMD in the second quarter of 2007 gained 2.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter to take a 13.4 percent share of overall microprocessor revenue. Share is increasingly important in the microprocessor market, as AMD and Intel apply ever more severe pricing pressure."

http://semiconductors.tekrati.com/research/news.asp?id=9347
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As I've read before, AMD will continue to take progressively lesser losses until 1Q08 where at that point, they could break even finally, this news only furthers my viewpoint. As FAB 30 ramps down to be converted to FAB38 and FAB 36 continues to ramp up, AMD's costs will diminish, the release of Phenom will also greatly help AMD's return to real competition with Intel once again. I'd say AMD's 3Q07 losses will be somewhat less than last quarter's losses, around the neighborhood of $300 - $400 million with 4Q07 being around half that at $150 - $200 million.
 
I am optimistic as well Lou. I believe yours is the best-case scenario, and something for which AMD is praying. In some ways, AMD would be in a slightly more advantageous position inbetween Phenom and Nehalem. And then it's anyone's guess as to what happens.
 
lol

^ I think that sums it up.

Not going to be pretty. Again. I say $250m loss. Rebadging the same old crap as "black," and rushing a sub-par chip out the door to OEMs does not automatically get you out of the red, but will still help a bit.
 
vista_blista said:
I am optimistic as well Lou. I believe yours is the best-case scenario, and something for which AMD is praying. In some ways, AMD would be in a slightly more advantageous position inbetween Phenom and Nehalem. And then it's anyone's guess as to what happens.
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It's not a matter of optimism, from what I remember reading from AMD's 2Q07 Earnings Report, that's more or less what AMD has planned, straight from the AMD top brass at the meeting. Once AMD gets FAB36 going full tilt(which they should be at soon) and get Phenom out the door and at high clocks,(which they will have by 1Q08 at worst case) they will be just fine and meet their goals financially.

Nehalem on the other hand, is going to be a PITA for Intel and not going to be out as Intel would like to hope IMHO, late 2Q08 I believe, therefore AMD has plenty of time to regain profitability during that time if they execute well. The biggest roadblocks with Nehalem are Intel is going 45nm on Nehalem, but they are also dealing with a IMC on chip, making it native quad core and changing from FSB to Quickpath, aka CSI. Doing all of that in one generation and in the time frame that Intel thinks they will release it is not easy for any microchip company. Just ask Morfinx, he works at AMD.
 
Lou Ceifer said:
It's not a matter of optimism, from what I remember reading from AMD's 2Q07 Earnings Report, that's more or less what AMD has planned, straight from the AMD top brass at the meeting. Once AMD gets FAB36 going full tilt(which they should be at soon) and get Phenom out the door and at high clocks,(which they will have by 1Q08 at worst case) they will be just fine and meet their goals financially.

Nehalem on the other hand, is going to be a PITA for Intel and not going to be out as Intel would like to hope IMHO, late 2Q08 I believe, therefore AMD has plenty of time to regain profitability during that time if they execute well. The biggest roadblocks with Nehalem are Intel is going 45nm on Nehalem, but they are also dealing with a IMC on chip, making it native quad core and changing from FSB to Quickpath, aka CSI. Doing all of that in one generation and in the time frame that Intel thinks they will release it is not easy for any microchip company. Just ask Morfinx, he works at AMD.
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It would be interesting to know what is your idea of an optimistic prognosis for AMD.
 
continued poor execution of ATI acquisition and $60 X2's make Q3 another difficult quarter
perhaps tempered by their lack of a pre-announcement which usually spells big trouble.

- 330M
 
Lou Ceifer said:
Nehalem on the other hand, is going to be a PITA for Intel and not going to be out as Intel would like to hope IMHO, late 2Q08 I believe
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LOL It's been a 2H'08 product for as long as it has been on the roadmaps.

It's such a difficult processor for Intel that they demonstrated a 2S Nehalem system running a visualization workload at IDF only a few weeks after getting the first silicon (A0)! And that's a year before it's due to be released.

It's fine to hope for a miracle when AMD is stumbling, but don't discount how well the competition is executing. AMD really needs to clean up its act, ASAP. I'll be surprised if Ruiz is still around for the Q4 earnings conference in January.
 
pxc said:
LOL It's been a 2H'08 product for as long as it has been on the roadmaps.

It's such a difficult processor for Intel that they demonstrated a 2S Nehalem system running a visualization workload at IDF only a few weeks after getting the first silicon (A0)! And that's a year before it's due to be released.

It's fine to hope for a miracle when AMD is stumbling, but don't discount how well the competition is executing. AMD really needs to clean up its act, ASAP. I'll be surprised if Ruiz is still around for the Q4 earnings conference in January.
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Road maps mean nothing to me, nothing is ever set in stone, they are but a mere "go by" of what is planned. Then there is what actually happens, REALITY. Time has shown me this time and time again in the past where Intel has f00bared their road maps before, so who's to say they won't do it will again? Intel has done well with C2D's release but they can't live on it's success forever. They will have to pull that kind of success off again with Nehalem and the cards aren't necessarily in their favor this time due to my reasons stated above.

Since Nehalem was shown in September, next September seems to be a reasonable time frame for Intel to get it out,(as you stated one year) therefore my estimated time frame for Nehalem seems reasonable and Intel's stated 2Q08 is optimistic. Yes, AMD has flubbed up on occasion, as with K10's late release due to unforeseen problems. However, since I will take a note from the history of the K8 and it's late release, once it was out and in force on the market, it did very well in comparison to Intel's offerings and AMD recovered financially. It's not too unreasonable to reason the same for the K10. As far as Ruiz is concerned, his time with AMD is already limited as I've read and understood, he's already grooming his successor to take over when he decides to retire in the not too distant future.

...and PXC...

Feel free to leave your condescending attitude at the door, you never fail to feel the need to act like a jackass every time I or someone else's post something optimistic for AMD here, or find you gloating over it's failures here in the AMD forum. At last I checked, this forum had the name AMD on it, so if it bothers you that people give AMD optimism here and are also pessimistic about Intel, you know where the door is and where the Intel forums are. Thanks in advance.
 
pxc said:
It's fine to hope for a miracle when AMD is stumbling, but don't discount how well the competition is executing. AMD really needs to clean up its act, ASAP. I'll be surprised if Ruiz is still around for the Q4 earnings conference in January.
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I'm not a fan of Hector Ruiz either, but your overall message/s are atypically silly for an AMD forum. That's like admonishing the little engine that could when it could not. Or severely and fundamentally misunderstanding that overwhelming possibility of Goliath beating David 9 times out of 10. AMD has indeed caught Intel napping far more times than you nipping armchair forum analysts ever could.
 
Whatever, it wont be pretty. Haven't felt like this since I bought, new, a '74 AMC Javelin.
 
Lou Ceifer said:
Road maps mean nothing to me, nothing is ever set in stone, they are but a mere "go by" of what is planned. Then there is what actually happens, REALITY. Time has shown me this time and time again in the past where Intel has f00bared their road maps before, so who's to say they won't do it will again? Intel has done well with C2D's release but they can't live on it's success forever. They will have to pull that kind of success off again with Nehalem and the cards aren't necessarily in their favor this time due to my reasons stated above.

Since Nehalem was shown in September, next September seems to be a reasonable time frame for Intel to get it out,(as you stated one year) therefore my estimated time frame for Nehalem seems reasonable and Intel's stated 2Q08 is optimistic. Yes, AMD has flubbed up on occasion, as with K10's late release due to unforeseen problems. However, since I will take a note from the history of the K8 and it's late release, once it was out and in force on the market, it did very well in comparison to Intel's offerings and AMD recovered financially. It's not too unreasonable to reason the same for the K10. As far as Ruiz is concerned, his time with AMD is already limited as I've read and understood, he's already grooming his successor to take over when he decides to retire in the not too distant future.

...and PXC...

Feel free to leave your condescending attitude at the door, you never fail to feel the need to act like a jackass every time I or someone else's post something optimistic for AMD here, or find you gloating over it's failures here in the AMD forum. At last I checked, this forum had the name AMD on it, so if it bothers you that people give AMD optimism here and are also pessimistic about Intel, you know where the door is and where the Intel forums are. Thanks in advance.
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Ummm, the REALITY is that Nehalem is already WORKING on A0 silicon as demonstrated at IDF. It seems a bit foolish to be so skeptical of Intel's execution of Nehalem in light of this.
 
I think AMD will still be in the red this Quarter, considering their selling prices have been pretty low, but the Barcelona release even though released at relatively low frequencies was a good point for the Quarter, but the financial impact this quarter will be negligible.

The continued price erosion on the desktop dual core won't halt till AMD can get Phenom Dual Core's out at competitive prices, Intel isn't dropping prices any further on the Quads so as long as they can get something competitive out they shouldn't do too bad on that front.

The most recent roadmaps are saying Phenom will be out in 2.6GHZ Quad form before the end of this year, that isn't bad though I don't think that will be a threat to the Core 2 Extreme QX9650. But they could aim for good price/performance ratio like they did with Barcelona.
 
Put me down for somewhere between $0 gain and $100 billion loss and immediate bankruptcy.
 
Lou Ceifer said:
Once AMD gets FAB36 going full tilt(which they should be at soon) and get Phenom out the door and at high clocks,(which they will have by 1Q08 at worst case) they will be just fine and meet their goals financially.
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How did you set this worst-case boundary?

Meanwhile, I'm in for $175 million in losses.
 
PrplMshrm said:
Ummm, the REALITY is that Nehalem is already WORKING on A0 silicon as demonstrated at IDF. It seems a bit foolish to be so skeptical of Intel's execution of Nehalem in light of this.
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Uhhhh, let's see, we're ALL hypothesizing here so what does it really matter? I'll reserve my final judgment just like I am with AMD's offerings and releases. It will get here when it gets here. An A0 piece of working silicon is just that, a WORKING piece, there is no telling what kinda of errata or other issues they will need to work out for a releasable product which in itself also has NO REAL, DEFINITE TIMEFRAME other than what Intel "hopes" for. You also forget it's not also about the processor either, it's also the platform, CSI aka QuickPath which must have all the bugs worked out of it. So yea, I'll remain skeptical until I see otherwise, if it's all the same to you, thanks.

mikeblas said:
How did you set this worst-case boundary?
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I've been following Scientia's blog and I'm agreeing with his estimates. Besides, 3Ghz Phenom chips have already been shown/demoed, they can do it, assuming AMD can get the silicon respined in a decent time frame for releasing that speed bin in necessary yields. 6 months or so to get a chip rev that will hit that frequency, stable and under thermal limits for sufficient yields is not unreasonable as a worst case for AMD IMHO. Actually, I'm kinda surprised they won't be releasing a 3.0 Ghz as originally planned for December, as the 3.0 Ghz Phenoms will basically be a enthusiast priced product (FX line) and therefore, AMD won't need a hellavu lot of inventory to release it. Perhaps those demoed Phenoms were rarer than they let on to be and will need more time to do another silicon respin for that speed bin.
 
Lou Ceifer said:
Uhhhh, let's see, we're ALL hypothesizing here so what does it really matter? I'll reserve my final judgment just like I am with AMD's offerings and releases. It will get here when it gets here. An A0 piece of working silicon is just that, a WORKING piece, there is no telling what kinda of errata or other issues they will need to work out for a releasable product which in itself also has NO REAL, DEFINITE TIMEFRAME other than what Intel "hopes" for. You also forget it's not also about the processor either, it's also the platform, CSI aka QuickPath which must have all the bugs worked out of it. So yea, I'll remain skeptical until I see otherwise, if it's all the same to you, thanks.



I've been following Scientia's blog and I'm agreeing with his estimates. Besides, 3Ghz Phenom chips have already been shown/demoed, they can do it, assuming AMD can get the silicon respined in a decent time frame for releasing that speed bin. 6 months or so to get a chip rev that will hit that frequency, stable and under thermal limits for sufficient yields is not unreasonable as a worst case for AMD IMHO. Actually, I'm kinda surprised they won't be releasing a 3.0 Ghz as originally planned for December, as the 3.0 Ghz Phenoms will basically be a enthusiast priced product (FX line) and therefore, AMD won't need a hellavu lot of inventory to release it. Perhaps those demoed Phenoms were rarer than they let on to be and will need more time to do more silicon respins for that speed bin.
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According to Dailytech, 2.6 for the Phenom is the highest we should see this year. That's with 125W TDP which is a step higher than 2.4 TDP. Phenom FX won't be seen until Q1, and it seems unlikely that it would be a 3 GHz part at this point. This will be a bad quarter for AMD regardless of marketshare. I think Q2 08 will be the first quarter they could break even IFF they release products on time, get them to high clockspeeds, and get good yields. I'm doubtful of those things so I don't see any relief for AMD until Shanghai as long as they can get that process right.

AMD has shown a 3.0 GHz part but they obviously aren't close getting one to market. I say AMD loses 400M in Q3.
 
BigDH01 said:
According to Dailytech, 2.6 for the Phenom is the highest we should see this year. That's with 125W TDP which is a step higher than 2.4 TDP. Phenom FX won't be seen until Q1, and it seems unlikely that it would be a 3 GHz part at this point. This will be a bad quarter for AMD regardless of marketshare. I think Q2 08 will be the first quarter they could break even IFF they release products on time, get them to high clockspeeds, and get good yields. I'm doubtful of those things so I don't see any relief for AMD until Shanghai as long as they can get that process right.

AMD has shown a 3.0 GHz part but they obviously aren't close getting one to market. I say AMD loses 400M in Q3.
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sounds like the rumors that AMD cant get their 65nm process to produce the yield that Intel managed (ie totally awsome), are more then just rumors. But as we all know, theres also alot to be said for revisions. G0 overclocks like a Banshee where the B6 kentsfiels are, well, I cant say bad all things considered, but certainly not as awsome as G0.

I think that AMD will probibly break even at the end of Q208. Right now... I think you guys are guessing a little steep, I figure maybe 300-350mil.

And AMD is, from my eyes, showing a genuine belief in their new roadmaps, both on the GPU side --which if R680 is everything it might be then... well... Nvidias in for a rough few months, and the GPPU side.
 
Considering Intel posted a 43% increase in profits in Q3 on sales of $10.1B and with market pricing higher than official pricing while AMD's is lower...the expected loss of $0.62/share or ~$350M net loss is a little optimistic.

Though this quarter should have been much better for AMD because of increased seasonal demand(should have been ~200M in losses), and despite the increased revenues from R600 sales, Intel's broad line-up from the quads to E6x50 to the E21x0 series along with the sharp price cuts in July made this a difficult quarter for AMD.


Bottom line:

>400M loss this quarter.
 
I asked a friend of mine that I have known since the mid 80's,(a few pointed questions this afternoon) who has worked for Ingram Micro D since 1990,about Barcelona stock,and he told me they have been scarce to almost qoute "non existant" !

Take that for what you will.I mean,its only one man seeing an admittedly small share of the North Amercian/Canadian server market (as IMD has a lot of sales reps),etc,etc. But still.... :eek: I trust him.That and he says,whisperings in his ear,are that "sales have been weak"
 
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