AMD Processor Shortage to Continue as 80% 7nm Capacity Allocated to Console SoCs

Status
Not open for further replies.

MrGuvernment

Fully [H]
Joined
Aug 3, 2004
Messages
19,783

AMD Processor Shortage to Continue as 80% 7nm Capacity Allocated to Console SoCs

https://www.hardwaretimes.com/amd-p...nm-capacity-allocated-to-console-socs-report/


As CPU and GPU shortages continue to persist into the new year, multiple factors are being blamed for the lack of microprocessor supply. At the moment, both NVIDIA’s RTX 30 series, as well as AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 GPUs, are either unavailable or priced at 2-3x the MSRP. Although the supply for the Ryzen 5000 CPUs has somewhat improved, it’s still far from sufficient. The crypto-mining boom is only going to make things worse. A few hours back the crypto market broke the $1000 billion dollar mark which is 30% higher than the last time when it collapsed after hitting $700 billion.
...
The worst part is that Sony and MS have reserved roughly 75-80% of AMD’s 7nm capacity for the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S consoles, leaving only around 20% for both the Ryzen 5000 desktop and mobile processors as well as the Radeon RX 6000 GPUs. Considering the profit margins, it’s likely that AMD will focus on the former and as a result, the supply for the latter will continue to suffer for at least the first half of 2021. As you can expect, the mining boom will most likely drive miners towards NVIDIA’s GPUs instead, making the situation worse for gamers. Overall, it looks like 2021 isn’t going to be any better than 2020.


 
Joined
Nov 23, 2020
Messages
28
Something about that stat doesn’t smell right. With Milan incoming, are they really claiming that 80% of [wafers/dies/area] is going to MS and Sony for profit margin when the consoles probably net AMD the lowest margin per area? I am sure the 4-8 chiplets in a Milan package net about $2000 more than the console SOCs at worst.

Any other ideas, or is this FUD?
 

DooKey

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Apr 25, 2001
Messages
9,994
Something about that stat doesn’t smell right. With Milan incoming, are they really claiming that 80% of [wafers/dies/area] is going to MS and Sony for profit margin when the consoles probably net AMD the lowest margin per area? I am sure the 4-8 chiplets in a Milan package net about $2000 more than the console SOCs at worst.

Any other ideas, or is this FUD?
They said Ryzen is taking priority with the remaining wafers over GPU's because they are higher margin.
 

jfreund

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Sep 3, 2006
Messages
1,150
You might as well buy one.

Unless they figure out how to mine on a console it's the only AMD graphics you'll get.
Got lucky with a 6800 on launch day. Still hunting for either XT. If I don't have one in hand or at least a tracking number by the end of the month, I'm getting a waterblock for the 6800.
 

GoodBoy

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 29, 2004
Messages
1,949
Something about that stat doesn’t smell right. With Milan incoming, are they really claiming that 80% of [wafers/dies/area] is going to MS and Sony for profit margin when the consoles probably net AMD the lowest margin per area? I am sure the 4-8 chiplets in a Milan package net about $2000 more than the console SOCs at worst.

Any other ideas, or is this FUD?
They might be lower margin, not sure about that on console chips. But the quantity they are producing was probably agreed upon a few years ago when contracts were signed, so they have to produce a specified amount of those to meet the contract. CPU's would be the next thing they would want to keep production up on if those are supplied to OEM pc vendors. GPU's are last place as I doubt they have a contract with any of the OEM's to supply specific quantities.
 

Krenum

Fully [H]
Joined
Apr 29, 2005
Messages
16,941
does that mean I shouldn't buy one of their $50 T-shirts that sports their name and their logo so I will be paying them to advertise for them? You mean those companies?
What you do with your $50 dollars is none of my business. Does AMD sell $50 dollar T-Shirts?
 

TheBuzzer

HACK THE WORLD!
Joined
Aug 15, 2005
Messages
12,730
The main problem lies in the fab company, they are just not big enough to handle all their chip productions.
 

DrDoU

2[H]4U
Joined
Jun 4, 2007
Messages
2,669
you can't buy a hat to piss in. sum'bitch might as well put my new rig together cause i can't BUY a new gpu.
 

Lakados

2[H]4U
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Messages
3,424
They might be lower margin, not sure about that on console chips. But the quantity they are producing was probably agreed upon a few years ago when contracts were signed, so they have to produce a specified amount of those to meet the contract. CPU's would be the next thing they would want to keep production up on if those are supplied to OEM pc vendors. GPU's are last place as I doubt they have a contract with any of the OEM's to supply specific quantities.
They have very few OEM's that move AMD in any meaningful quantity, the availability of the 4000 series has been a joke since launch and the lead time on the desktop parts is insane. Epic and Threadripper will begin production in March/April and those are going to also be high-profit parts, so I expect those to be given some degree of priority, but leaks from AMD back in August of last year were stating pretty clearly that they were releasing the 6000 series GPU's as a small quantity thing and that the 6900XT might not get any more production time than the Radeon VII's were assigned which was less than 10,000 worldwide.

None of this news surprises me, but if I can't get the Threadripper and Epic parts that I need with a guaranteed delivery date before July 1, I am going to have to buy another round of Xeons instead, and unless Intel shows me something nice between now and purchase time I am going to be a little sad by that.
 

gigaxtreme1

2[H]4U
Joined
Oct 1, 2002
Messages
3,533
The main problem lies in the fab company, they are just not big enough to handle all their chip productions.

As I was Saying the other day here, there is a semiconductor super cycle going on and fab demand because of Covid or regardless of it.
 

cybereality

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Mar 22, 2008
Messages
6,668
A few hours back the crypto market broke the $1000 billion dollar mark which is 30% higher than the last time when it collapsed after hitting $700 billion.
1000 is not 30% more than 700. If the reporter can't even do basic math, not sure I want to trust any other numbers in that article.
 

Lakados

2[H]4U
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Messages
3,424
Something about that stat doesn’t smell right. With Milan incoming, are they really claiming that 80% of [wafers/dies/area] is going to MS and Sony for profit margin when the consoles probably net AMD the lowest margin per area? I am sure the 4-8 chiplets in a Milan package net about $2000 more than the console SOCs at worst.

Any other ideas, or is this FUD?
They haven't started production on their new Threadripper and Epyc parts yet, and they probably have enough surplus of the previous-gen parts to meet existing demand. Once March rolls around they will ramp up the enterprise parts then come summer they should be back to pumping out consumer parts so they can try to meet some of the back-to-school demand.
 

HAL_404

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Dec 16, 2018
Messages
1,038
What you do with your $50 dollars is none of my business. Does AMD sell $50 dollar T-Shirts?
I think it makes the point intended which is ... many customers are foolish and materialistic and Companies know that and will appropriately take advantage of them ... not unlike many RMA experiences for GPU's people have experienced (except for EVGA, usually) ;)
 
Last edited:

OutOfPhase

2[H]4U
Joined
May 11, 2005
Messages
3,507
Meanwhile, I just watch the cool kids playing with their new GPUs from afar.

out-window.jpg

Looks like fun. I guess.

I turn to the 1080ti and smile. But the smile does not reach my eyes.
 

Lakados

2[H]4U
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Messages
3,424
Not surprised. Sold their soul to Sony and Microsoft for lower margin products.
Low margin but also low cost, Sony and Microsoft footed the bulk of the R&D costs for their Zen3, and RDNA2 architectures, also really if it weren't for the fact they are in the consoles they wouldn't have much on the gaming side going for them. Imagine AMD's position if suddenly NVidia was the console GPU of choice and Intel was providing the CPU. AMD keeping themselves inside those devices is essentially their claim to fame, Threadripper and Epyc sales can only carry them so far and they still can't produce enough desktop or laptop CPU's for any of the big OEM's to do much beyond a side launch with their parts. And given how AMD controls their AGESA for the BIOS, and their general lack of documentation on much of their parts most of the OEM's don't particularly want to deal with them for a massive launch. So really they may have sold their soul to MS and Sony but it was their only lifeline and continues to be a very important one for them to help and improve their current position.
 

Lakados

2[H]4U
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Messages
3,424
I think it makes the point intended which is ... many customers are foolish and materialistic and Companies know that and will appropriately take advantage of them ... not unlike many RMA experiences for GPU's people have experienced (except for EVGA, usually) ;)
I personally can't say I have ever had a problem with GPU RMA's except one time ASUS game me a bit of grief because I had replaced the stock cooler with a plate from EKWB but even then they took it as long as I sent the stock cooler with it, I didn't even attach it. But MSI was the worst by far and EVGA is good, but most of the time my GPU's end up being PNY through Dell and that is by far the easiest, like send an email to my rep, who has support call me to arrange an advanced replacement for the defective unit.
 

noko

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Apr 14, 2010
Messages
5,912
Zen 3 Epyc and probably Threadripper is using the 7nm+ node, this should not affect the 7nm node at Samsung.
 

Lakados

2[H]4U
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Messages
3,424
Zen 3 Epyc and probably Threadripper is using the 7nm+ node, this should not affect the 7nm node at Samsung.
So we may look forward to a healthy supply of NVidia parts in the coming year. That is at least something I suppose.
 

noko

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Apr 14, 2010
Messages
5,912
So we may look forward to a healthy supply of NVidia parts in the coming year. That is at least something I suppose.
Looks that way for GPUs on the PC. Also AMD may have an option to shift some of the mainstream CPUs to 7nm+, Zen3+? Hypothetical that is. As for GPUs, looks like CDNA arch is also 7nm.
 

Starfalcon

Limp Gawd
Joined
Jan 7, 2020
Messages
462
Meanwhile, I just watch the cool kids playing with their new GPUs from afar.

View attachment 317228
Looks like fun. I guess.

I turn to the 1080ti and smile. But the smile does not reach my eyes.

Same here, at least my 1080 Ti is getting me by until I can manage to get a new card. Although with the spike in price on new cards, I may be waiting longer than I thought....
 

Marees

Gawd
Joined
Sep 28, 2018
Messages
893
So we may look forward to a healthy supply of NVidia parts in the coming year. That is at least something I suppose.

The smaller chip based (& also slower memory based) 3070 & 3060 ti are more readily available than the 3080 & 3090

On AMD's side only the 470/590 manufacture on global foundries would be available now I gues (if they are still manufacturing it)
The rest would go to Consoles, Server CPUs & premium consumer CPUs.
GPUs would be last in the queue & also AMD seems to have gone for high speed gddr6 which would definitely be an issue compared to 3070 & 3060ti
 

Zepher

[H]ipster Replacement
Joined
Sep 29, 2001
Messages
18,019
How does a $500 console give more profit to AMD than them selling their own $500 processor.
 

Lepardi

Limp Gawd
Joined
Nov 8, 2017
Messages
300
Alright, time to skip 5xxx and look for DDR5 platform. Consoles wont be hogging all the production in 2022.

Might as well buy the $500 console with the money you save from not buying 2x MSRP components lol.
 

SmokeRngs

[H]ard|DCer of the Month - April 2008
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
16,891
How does a $500 console give more profit to AMD than them selling their own $500 processor.
Two issues. The first is that they have contracts with both Microsoft and Sony for a minimum number of chips to be delivered. AMD cannot afford to default on agreements such as that. The second is that while the margin for the chips they make for MS and Sony is slim, it's a steady revenue and profit and AMD has to keep both of those companies happy.

For all we know it's possible that due to massive demand MS and Sony may have made arrangements for additional orders for higher margins as long as AMD can deliver.

Simply put, there are a lot of factors involved and we don't know many of them.
 

deruberhanyok

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 22, 2004
Messages
1,863
How does a $500 console give more profit to AMD than them selling their own $500 processor.
Simply put, there are a lot of factors involved and we don't know many of them.

While we don’t know production costs vs sale prices, there’s one factor I think a lot of people don’t consider: it is possible that “volume” makes up for any perceived higher profit.

A lot of money comes from the volume parts, not the high end boutique ones. There’s an install base of 200 million + consoles from last generation, that’s 200 million (and counting) parts.

if this generation of consoles does the same, it’s likely to provide not only a solid revenue stream but a very large one.
 

HAL_404

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Dec 16, 2018
Messages
1,038
I'm still on a 1660 Ti 1080 @ 60Hz using 55" TV (has no tuner so I guess it's really a monitor except it can stream) ... looks more than good enough, responds well to inputs and gets 60 fps except during some cut scenes for some reason or other but everything runs well so I have zero need or reason to spend any $$$ on a GPU at this time.

If you feel the need to spend maybe look into improving or getting a surround sound system. Very descent system can be had for under $500 of you buy the Home Theater Receiver used.
 

cybereality

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Mar 22, 2008
Messages
6,668
Yeah, I bought the Razer Nari Essential headphones, and they were a huge improvement over the wired earbuds I had before. Definitely don't sleep on upgrading your sound.
 

Lakados

2[H]4U
Joined
Feb 3, 2014
Messages
3,424
I'm still on a 1660 Ti 1080 @ 60Hz using 55" TV (has no tuner so I guess it's really a monitor except it can stream) ... looks more than good enough, responds well to inputs and gets 60 fps except during some cut scenes for some reason or other but everything runs well so I have zero need or reason to spend any $$$ on a GPU at this time.

If you feel the need to spend maybe look into improving or getting a surround sound system. Very descent system can be had for under $500 of you buy the Home Theater Receiver used.
There is so much more beyond the straight resolution that makes or breaks a game. 1080 or 1440p with a large screen for better immersion and a good sound system can go a long way.
 

Derangel

Fully [H]
Joined
Jan 31, 2008
Messages
19,526
The main problem lies in the fab company, they are just not big enough to handle all their chip productions.

TSMC is the largest chip maker on the planet. The problem isn't size alone, it's the exponential growth in demand year-over-year. TSMC is constantly growing, but they can't throw up new buildings overnight and there is no one else even close to being able to offer what they can. Then the pandemic hit, fucked up everything and lead to even higher demand for devices with chips made by TSMC and their competitors. Saying they're not "big enough" is only hitting the tip of the iceberg in terms of why this is happening across the board.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top