AMD Epyc pricing after Zen3 release in the end of Q1

mjlitola

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There was an interesting posting about Canadian DELL's leaked pricing of new Epyc 7543, 7713 and 7763, which seems pretty aggressive to me in view of AMD's dominance in server processor technology (albeit not in market share) at the moment. I guess this reflects. I have collected some prices of used processors (from Alibaba and Ebay.de) and my timid estimate is that Epyc Zen2 prices WILL FALL durin Q2 this year.

epyc.jpg


I wonder, what happened to Epyc 7551 (Zen 1) price at the end of August 2019???
Epyc 7551 price history.jpg
 
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mjlitola

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There seems to be just a small price adjustment in Ebay.de in zen1 -parts, whereas Alibaba keeps on trucking with the same prices for 7502 and 7h12 originating probably from big server farms. The total power draw of chinese server market was 161 TWh in 2018, if one estimates 50% CPU and 50% GPU server allocation, then AMD market share of 10% would consist of 180 W zen1 and zen2 chips, there would have to be ab. 45 million zen1 or zen2 server chips based on those latest 2018 energy numbers. The Ryzen5 sales of 1 million units in Q4/2020 seems miniscule in comparison.
price change.jpg
 

mjlitola

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Where Intel can currently give grief to AMD Zen2 -based system is at the low end 4p system. Alibaba.com has 16c Xeon Gold 5218 at 350 euros. The 4-socket motherboard is quite expensive (1268 eur VAT 0%) and 4-socket boot-up times are horrendous (ab. 15 minutes according to servethehome.com), but you will still get with 4 x Xeon Gold 5218 -system about -10% compute power with -12% the price (however, you might have to purchase some extra riser cards for 20 eur a pop to connect your m.2 nvme -cards, whereas Gigabyte MZ72-HB0 -motherboard already sports one nvme -slot included in their 772,73 eur VAT 0% price) in comparison to 2 x Epyc 7502 -system. However, the running costs of AMD is ab. 0,12 kWh cheaper (AMD 360 W vs Intel 480 W). Also, you have hard time finding a cheap Corsair 1000d -super tower that can fit the Supermicro X11QPH+-P -monster (size 16.8" x 20.5")!!!
 

mjlitola

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It seems that the prior DELL Canada leak of Epyc 7543 price was bogus, so I had to drop it from the list. The interesting thing right now is that the used Xeon prices have started moving. However, the variance of price of single processor, i.e. Xeon Platinum 8280, might vary 1000s of euros at Alibaba.com (the prices at Ebay.de are much higher in exception of few Xeon models). Xeon Platinum 8168 price is way below the AMD's price & performance trend line. This processor could give a very good deal, when building a server right now. Even with a more pricier 4-socket motherboard such as Supermicro X11QPH+-P (1268 euros VAT 0%), this processor could offer savings of almost 400-500 euros (in comparison to 2-socket motherboard Gigabyte MZ72-HB0 with 2 x Epyc 7502).
 

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mjlitola

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I floated an idea that Intel might lower the prices of its most energy hungry part, because some buyer's (small buyers) do not calculate the total cost of ownership--only the investment price of the parts. The problem with Intel is the pricier mobo (4 socket Supermicro X11QPH+-P) and the fact that if you want more than 28 cores per cpu, then you lose compatibility with your 1U 4-socket mobo b/c i.e. platinum 9282 which has 56 cores is not the Intel's average 4- or 8-socket processor BUT TWO-socket (I imagine that if you have over 1000W in your mobo, you are likely to burn your office, Platinum 9282 is a 400W part), which is same as epyc and epyc's top models like 7763 or zen2 7H12 have 64 cores not 56 cores (and 280 watts not FOUR HUNDRED!!!)> basically Intel can only compete with its normal 4s or 8s, but imagine a small business accounting office that has to run its million client bank transactions to their book keeping program and there is 4- socket or 8-socket server in that office room producing 820 watts or better yet 1640 watts of extra heat and that accounting office's air conditioning is keeping up with 100°F weather and just barely. You do not need that oven in there!!! It seems like amd dropped some of their prices as if to respond to Intel's Platinum 8168's price drop, but it is still a hard bargain with that 205 W heat output!!!
 

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