The Great PC Decline Isn’t As Bad As It Looks

Like we said yesterday (here) the so-called Great PC Decline isn't as bad as you’ve been told.

The reports, from industry-tracking stalwarts Gartner and IDC, show an overall drop in the global PC market of 8 and 10.4 percent, respectively. That sounds bad. And to be fair, it’s not actively good. Take a closer look at what the numbers actually say, though, and the context in which they say it, and you have a picture of an industry whose death has been greatly exaggerated.

I clicked through to see the author's name so I know not to take him seriously.

PC shipments are at 2007 levels and falling at a very unhealthy rate. Yes, it is bad as it looks.

pxc said:

I clicked through to see the author's name so I know not to take him seriously.

PC shipments are at 2007 levels and falling at a very unhealthy rate. Yes, it is bad as it looks.

Click to expand...

But even IDC that produced the worse number says that had they included detachables the decline would have been cut in half for last quarter. And the 3% decline predicted for next year becomes a 1% gain with detachables included in the forecast.

So not the greatest news obviously and the conventional PC mark at is definitely shrinking. But there are new form factors seeing good growth and other new hardware which should at least see a stable number of PCs (assuming IDC decides to change it's counting) in the next couple of years.

I truly do not get the alarm that comes with these articles. OEM's make very little money from the hardware, so they make up for that by selling crapware. No industry is guaranteed infinite year over year increases. Stop with the horse manure. This is still an economy that is not truly on good footing, and people make their computers last longer. Computers if taken care of properly can last for decades. Computers from years ago can still run software. OEM's usually use inexpensive parts as well. There is no reason to be up in arms. It is time to let this chicken little stuff go.

heatlesssun said:

But even IDC that produced the worse number says that had they included detachables the decline would have been cut in half for last quarter. And the 3% decline predicted for next year becomes a 1% gain with detachables included in the forecast.

So not the greatest news obviously and the conventional PC mark at is definitely shrinking. But there are new form factors seeing good growth and other new hardware which should at least see a stable number of PCs (assuming IDC decides to change it's counting) in the next couple of years.

Click to expand...

For some reason, IDC likes casting doom and gloom on the PC market at every opportunity.

If you look at past reports, even in the years that PC sales were growing, the reports still had a negative "not growing fast enough" tone to them. The artificial distinction between laptops with removable vs. non-removable keyboards doesn't help matters.

sir-gold said:

For some reason, IDC likes casting doom and gloom on the PC market at every opportunity.

Click to expand...

It's actually the opposite. The forecasts IDC and Gartner make tend to be more rosy in the past few years than the reality that happens. Both predict stronger sales in 2016, based on demand for Windows 10 PCs (lol, seriously).

Gartner includes tablets and detachables in its PC numbers, and it was also a terrible result not too far from IDC's numbers. Even if you have quibbles with the year over year percentage drop (because denialism), it's hard to run away from PC shipments being down to 2007 levels (IDC) or 2008 levels (Gartner).......... and still falling.

pxc said:

Gartner includes tablets and detachables in its PC numbers, and it was also a terrible result not too far from IDC's numbers.

Click to expand...

Actually it's hard to discern what Gartner counts in its reporting:

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs, and ultramobile premium. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels.
Source: Gartner (January 2016)

Click to expand...

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3185224

What exactly is "ultramobile premium"? They do mention hybrids as doing well in Eastern Europe but there's pretty much no other mention of Windows 2 in 1s or tablets anywhere else.

We'll see what the financial reports look like. I don't deny that the conventional PC market is shrinking. But I also don't think these reports are capturing quite the whole story, indeed IDC even says they aren't.

pxc said:

Even if you have quibbles with the year over year percentage drop (because denialism), it's hard to run away from PC shipments being down to 2007 levels (IDC) or 2008 levels (Gartner).......... and still falling.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's due to things like, economy and less to do with ppl not wanting to buy PCs anymore.

Obviously, that's not the only reason, especially for many of us on the forum. Where we have the money, but don't want to spend hundreds, if not thousands to upgrade for only a minor performance increase.

2010: The PC is dead
2011: The PC is dead
2012: The PC is dead
2013: The PC is dead
2014: The PC is dead
2015: The PC is dead
2016: The PC is dead (Still here folks)

If Apple can survive and be a profitable company with the single digit market share they have had of the PC market I don't think the overall market is going anywhere ... as others have noted before we don't run around shouting "The Microwave is dead", "The Washing Machine is dead", etc (even though they have experienced many year over year declines before they stabilized) ...

the PC remains a necessary (but durable) tool for many tasks ... with BILLIONS out in the field there is bound to be some slowdown in new purchases, but that doesn't mean the market is dead or dying ... there is still a lot more profit for companies in the PC market than in the mobile market ... that alone will always keep a stable floor level of PC consumption somewhere ... THE PC IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE PC

Dv8ted21 said:

I truly do not get the alarm that comes with these articles. OEM's make very little money from the hardware, so they make up for that by selling crapware. No industry is guaranteed infinite year over year increases. Stop with the horse manure. This is still an economy that is not truly on good footing, and people make their computers last longer. Computers if taken care of properly can last for decades. Computers from years ago can still run software. OEM's usually use inexpensive parts as well. There is no reason to be up in arms. It is time to let this chicken little stuff go.

Click to expand...

All that makes sense, but the high stakes casino that is Wall Street does not deal in reality.
In general our ridiculous high finance system does not deal in 'reality'. I think other countries are catching up, and slowly moving.
So yeah, if PC shipment are dropping, its bad, even flat is bad.

^ lol, no. Intel is pretty much ignoring the retail channel for CPUs nowadays compared to how ubiquitous products were a few years ago. No, there has not been a large shift of product from retail to builder channels.

krotch said:

Maybe it's due to things like, economy and less to do with ppl not wanting to buy PCs anymore.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what else you would attribute to the decline, at least going by the best information available. Demand in China caused part of the decline, and the continuing shift of consumers to other computing platforms (which by far do NOT run Windows) is essentially people not wanting to buy PCs. lol

This isn't a simple "IDC and Gartner are trying to be mean" situation. For years demand had been slowing to essentially no growth, followed by two distressing periods of decline.

Just in case anyone missed the news, PC shipments are down to levels not seen in almost a decade, and still declining. This is not a blip, or a short term consequence of a catastrophic event: PCs are in steady, if not accelerating, decline.

pxc said:

Just in case anyone missed the news, PC shipments are down to levels not seen in almost a decade, and still declining. This is not a blip, or a short term consequence of a catastrophic event: PCs are in steady, if not accelerating, decline.

Click to expand...

There's no doubt that conventional PC sales are declining. But these reports aren't counting many of the fastest growing PC devices. While Gartner counts something like a Surface Book, neither Gartner nor IDC counts a Surface Pro as a PC, which clearly it is. Of course there are the tablet surveys and there PCs have done well recently.

Bottom line, currently there is significant contraction in conventional PC sales that is for now at least partially being offset by new form factors that are PCs but are counted as conventional PCs. The growth in these devices looks to this year outpace the decline in conventional PCs such that overall PCs might see growth for the first time in years.

At least for now I think that's how OEMs are looking at it, given that the channel is almost glutted now with Windows 2 in 1s and tablets. Microsoft certainly made a lot of missteps with Windows 8 and some continuing into Windows 10. But the overall idea a hybrid OS seems to now be paying off. There's really no question now that the Windows PC market would be in much worse shape without 2 in 1s and tablets.

I think the real issue is how many people are using a PC on a daily basis, not how many are being sold. Someone who is continuing to use their existing PC because it's good enough, instead of buying a new one, is not a sign that the PC is in decline.

The PC market is basically saturated. The market has matured. Technological development has slowed. The previous market that was based on people buying faster PCs based on a constant need for faster PCs has been replaced by a market where people buy a new PC when their old one essentially breaks. To say that the PC is in decline is like saying that refrigerators are in decline based on people buying them less often - except that everyone still has one, and it's clear that everyone will for some time.

GotNoRice said:

I think the real issue is how many people are using a PC on a daily basis, not how many are being sold. Someone who is continuing to use their existing PC because it's good enough, instead of buying a new one, is not a sign that the PC is in decline.

The PC market is basically saturated. The market has matured. Technological development has slowed. The previous market that was based on people buying faster PCs based on a constant need for faster PCs has been replaced by a market where people buy a new PC when their old one essentially breaks. To say that the PC is in decline is like saying that refrigerators are in decline based on people buying them less often - except that everyone still has one, and it's clear that everyone will for some time.

Click to expand...

This ... besides this massive year over year upgrade and replacement strategy that business has pursued in mobile is probably unsustainable as well ... with over 2 billion PCs in use they are no different than any other durable appliance and just as healthy

'Evolving' is the correct word and not 'dying'. A lot of PC functions are being offloaded to ARM devices which are still PCs but smaller form factor. As a whole the market is growing.

Mathematician said:

Right, because most PC users are shutting down their PC and getting rid of it since the new brain implant chipsets have become so widespread. I don't know anyone that still uses or even has a PC. Do you still own one of these antiques?

Click to expand...

In a sea of dumb, some dumb rises to the top. Congrats.

Re-read my post until you understand it.

mi7chy said:

'Evolving' is the correct word and not 'dying'. A lot of PC functions are being offloaded to ARM devices which are still PCs but smaller form factor. As a whole the market is growing.

Click to expand...

Yeah, but I'm not sure that is relevant when you are trying to talk money, industry and consequences for said industry.
Nothing wrong with the technical aspect of what you are saying.. But the parts and production for a phone or tablet may involve different players ( know there is overlap of course) , different margins and stuff like that.
I mean is kind of like people giving up automobiles and going to electric bikes.. Yeah they take you from a to b but something like that would change the prospects of the auto industry for sure.