PC Shipments Continued Their Downward Spiral In 2015

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Another doom and gloom article that goes into great detail explaining how the PC is dying. For a little perspective on this "downward spiral," fourth quarter 2015 PC shipments were 75.7 million units, compared to 80.4 million in 2010 and 50.3 million in 2005.

Personal computers wheezed their way to the end of 2015, even as Apple managed to gain ground. Buffeted by consumer infatuation with tablets and phones, worldwide shipments of PCs continued spiraling lower in the final three months of 2015, according to research firms IDC and Gartner. Consumer interest in PCs was so weak, shipments for the year fell to the lowest point since 2008, according to IDC.
 
Buffeted by consumer infatuation with tablets and phones, worldwide shipments of PCs continued spiraling lower in the final three months of 2015
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Or, maybe, most PCs simply haven't required a hardware upgrade or replacement in several years and continue to run fine. I've never understood why all economic markers expect infinite growth forever. If there's even a remote drop in growth, it's considered a "downward spiral". Anecdotally, I've helped more people buy new laptops or build desktop machines in the last year than I have in the past 5yrs...
 
Hey, I'm doing my part. I'm buying my first new system in 8 years this week. Letting a local PC shop build a custom system for me.

Bottom line though is that computers last longer and there is not a compelling reason to upgrade full systems on a yearly or biyearly basis like there was in the past. PCs are a mature technology and their numbers will likely stabilize at a lower level until there is some compelling technology change that drives them back up again.
 
^^^ Agreed. I built my current rig...what was it, 6 years ago? 7? I've since replaced the hard drive, upgraded the RAM, and replaced the video card, but there's been no reason to buy a whole new computer.
 
Built a pc last year. So I guess I bucked the trend, but I figured I would be ready for VR. Technically. I suppose I bought 3 since I picked up a NUC for my mame cabinet and bought a virtual pinball machine.. So ya'll need to start carrying your weight :). This year my plans are to buy 0 computers though.

I'm not surprised at all to see macs tick up. Macbooks are definitely the best laptops out there. I've dropped mine numerous times and once even from 4ft+ on concrete (f'ing aluminum case is slick). Sure the outside shell is a little dinged up, but still works fine. Every time I'm forced to use other laptops I cringe at the touchpads and keyboards. Maybe I'm spoiled?
 
Personally, I tend to upgrade "one part at a time" - Moved into some SSDs over the last year, new GPU, more storage in the server, added RAM, new monitors, and the like. Eventually, the mobo / CPU / RAM get repalced, but I keep everything else. I can not remember the last time I had a 100% all new computer... 2002 or so I'm thinking.

Here at work we we keep our hardware for quite a while, 5 to 7 years is realistic. We can add RAM, upgrade the video, new / more monitors as needed. We don't replace them all at once either, they get spread out usually by dept. Hardware a few years old can run the latest OS and latest business software easy enough.

As a guy who used to do large corporate IT, system replacements / upgrades can be a pain in the ass. Lots of planning go into it. But, it needs done now and then -- most of the time is OS and Software related, which takes time with testing and vailidation. Most companies will run a version of an OS or application until they absolutely have to move to a new version - upgrades cost money.
 
cortexodus said:
Or, maybe, most PCs simply haven't required a hardware upgrade or replacement in several years and continue to run fine. I've never understood why all economic markers expect infinite growth forever. If there's even a remote drop in growth, it's considered a "downward spiral". Anecdotally, I've helped more people buy new laptops or build desktop machines in the last year than I have in the past 5yrs...
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This has crossed my mind more than once.


My computer is about 5 years old. Just haven't needed to upgrade for anything. Fallout 4 was the first game I couldn't run on the highest settings. Think I'll build one this summer or next. Just isn't a strong reason for me to spend money on a new one right now.

At work we have switched to virtual computers. We haven't bought a new pc in about 4 years. Few laptops for the more mobile people. Otherwise most of our tech money goes into server upgrades. Very few reasons for us to even consider a desktop.
 
Windows 10 is going to be the magic bullet for the decreasing shipments. It's going to guarantee that PCs be built year-after-year ensuring a stable supply of PCs to the masses. How Windows 10 will do this is through an expiration date. As it is updated over time, it is going to re-evaluate your components. At some point, it will deem those components out-of-date and you'll no longer be getting upgrades of Windows 10. Your computer will technically be expired. At that point, it is buy a new computer or build a new computer. In a way, I've already experienced this with one of my computers. It has an AMD Phenom II X4 940 BE in it. I guess this CPU is not an "eligible" device according to Windows 10 because it is not eligible for upgrade to Windows 10 from Windows 7. (This computer doesn't get the NAG to upgrade to Windows 10). No matter, when Windows 7 comes to end-of-life, I'll switch this computer to Linux. I DID build a new computer with Windows 7 (i7-4790K, etc). Eventually, I'll go to Windows 10, but after that, I wonder how long Microsoft will consider an i7-4790k an "eligible" device.
 
Dawill said:
I'm not surprised at all to see macs tick up. Macbooks are definitely the best laptops out there. I've dropped mine numerous times and once even from 4ft+ on concrete (f'ing aluminum case is slick). Sure the outside shell is a little dinged up, but still works fine. Every time I'm forced to use other laptops I cringe at the touchpads and keyboards. Maybe I'm spoiled?
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I'd disagree. My niece receive a Mac when she started college and didn't even make it through the 1st year before it broke from being dropped (screen).

It was replace with a larger/heavier (and much cheaper) Dell business class laptop, and 3 years later it still works. Lots of dings & scrapes and after one fall the DVD stopped working, but that was cheap/easy to replace.
 
My main Windows computer is about 5-6 years old. Its a Sandy Bridge i7 - still works great and runs all the stuff I've thrown at it. I did replace the video card this year (Nvidia 970) to get it ready for VR. I also put in a larger SSD a few years ago.
Why would I even think of upgrading yet? I'm not going to get the bang-for-the-buck.

I would also guess that when you build your own system, you are probably not counted in "new pc sales". I bet they are looking at Apple, Dell, HP, etc.

Heck, talking about lasting value, I have a Macbook I bought in 2008 that still works fine (except the battery died and I haven't replaced it). I upgraded ram, put in an SSD - it's still a nice system for running Xcode. Sure, a newer Mac would be a little faster - but not by huge margins. So what if my code compiles 5-10 seconds faster? That doesn't translate into $1500-$2000 in upgrade fees to me.
 
I don't think these numbers include Windows tablets or 2 in 1s with detachable screens like the Surface Book so the numbers aren't probably as bad they sound and it would explain why so many OEMs now have Windows tablets and 2 in 1s in their product mix.
 
Unless you're gaming, I don't see the point of buying a new PC right now either. My wife's i7 920 from 2008 works 100% fine for normal desktop work and even games pretty well as long as you don't try to crank details.
Most mobile devices still need a complimentary PC of some sort, but they don't need a bleeding edge one. Windows 7-10, MS Office, web browsers, and even the basic Adobe production apps can only run so well.
Until people have a compelling reason to get a new PC, why would you buy a new one right now?
 
I don't understand all of the doom and gloom surrounding these numbers. Surprise, PC sales contracted in concert with the world's 2nd largest economy taking a downturn.

Every article I've seen about this report seems to ignore the following lines from the IDC report:

Detachable tablets, which are counted separately from PCs, are growing quickly but from a small base. Adding those units to PC shipments would boost growth by roughly 6 percentage points in the fourth quarter and 3 percentage points for all of 2015, bringing year-on-year growth for 4Q15 to a decline of about -5% and -7.5% for all of 2015. The impact for 2016 will be larger as detachable tablet volume grows, boosting earlier forecasts of PC growth in 2016 from -3.1% to growth of 1 to 2%.
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and:

Most PC users have delayed an upgrade, but can only maintain this for so long before facing security and performance issues. We continue to believe that a majority of these users will purchase another PC, motivated by new products and attractive pricing.
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There are some positive notes to be taken from this report.
 
I built 4 new PC's for home 5-6 years ago, and still see no reason to replace them.
I've added memory, upgraded to SSD's, and replace a video card on one, but otherwise they still run everything fine.
We also added a couple tablets (Android and Windows) to the mix, but they are mainly for media consumption.

Even at the office, I haven't been buying as many systems, as the old ones are still fine.
I've switched many of the laptops to SSD's, and added memory or drives to the servers, but don't see much of an advantage to spending money on a new server that's not much faster.
 
viscountalpha said:
I wonder how part sales add into this figure
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Parts are not included in these estimates, this is only for actual computers. There is some indication that the part markets are booming for upgradable parts (which would make sense with the longer PC lifecycles) and for enthusiast parts (gamers spend big bucks on PC accessories and parts)
 
spugm1r3 said:
I don't understand all of the doom and gloom surrounding these numbers. Surprise, PC sales contracted in concert with the world's 2nd largest economy taking a downturn.

Every article I've seen about this report seems to ignore the following lines from the IDC report:
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Thanks, this is what I was referring to. I think they're going to have to change how they count this.
 
I wonder what "others" mean. Ma and Pa shops, too? I doubt it. Custom and home-grown rigs? I would suspect people who build custom rigs upgrade more often than people who toss out the whole thing. There is also a grey area on what could be considered a "new pc".

I just built my newest one from last Cyber Monday sales to have a newer one since the last one I built for myself in 2009. And the one from early 2009 was still fine technically since I upgraded the vcard a few years ago. I just got the bug to do another...
 
17 years ago I was building a new PC every two years. That continued until 2006 and I could then go about four years before building a new one. Now it looks like I can go maybe 5 or 6 years and just do obvious component upgrades like video cards, SSDs and memory.

There's always been that itch to upgrade to a new motherboard and maybe a new case more often. But as I've gotten older the fun and excitement of building a PC has faded a bit. It's even less exciting when building for friends, family and co-workers because they're usually low-end builds.
 
From a personal perspective I have no need to upgrade my 920 for work, or for gaming. Even a 6core CPU, was more for fun, not any need.

On a professional front, for the systems not on lease I only replace hardware when it physically breaks down, no need for speed upgrades in years.

So I can see a much reduced need to upgrade, combined with a US dollar which is comparatively very high versus the rest of the world will amount to reduced demand for higher end systems.
 
You have to think that large companies probably play as much or more of a role than normal consumers. My company has stuck to the same 1st gen core i5's for years and I don't see that changing. My smoking fast "design model" Xeon runs 90% of the software we use identically to the pleb machines.
 
Unless bleeding edge gaming is what you do, there is no reason to upgrade. 5+ year old systems run office, quickbooks and browsers just fine.
And if you are thinking of upgrading just put an SSD in your machine and keep on trucking.
 
dark_reign said:
17 years ago I was building a new PC every two years. That continued until 2006 and I could then go about four years before building a new one. Now it looks like I can go maybe 5 or 6 years and just do obvious component upgrades like video cards, SSDs and memory.

There's always been that itch to upgrade to a new motherboard and maybe a new case more often. But as I've gotten older the fun and excitement of building a PC has faded a bit. It's even less exciting when building for friends, family and co-workers because they're usually low-end builds.
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I was doing the same...now I do an every 4-5 year replacement schedule with an upgrade here and there to keep it up-to-date. I did my last major upgrade/replacement last May.

Where I work at, the primary driver of replacing PC's is Windows XP getting EOL...we have some PC's that are from the late 1990s that are still running that are separate from the network for controlling special machines. We also have Test equipment that costs 20-30K to replace if we wanted to run something more current then Windows XP on them, but they work fine for the role we need them for till they die.
 
dark_reign said:
17 years ago I was building a new PC every two years. That continued until 2006 and I could then go about four years before building a new one. Now it looks like I can go maybe 5 or 6 years and just do obvious component upgrades like video cards, SSDs and memory.

There's always been that itch to upgrade to a new motherboard and maybe a new case more often. But as I've gotten older the fun and excitement of building a PC has faded a bit. It's even less exciting when building for friends, family and co-workers because they're usually low-end builds.
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I have to admit that I do feel a little sorry for you. ;) The older I get, the more I enjoy building machines, whether they be low end or high end, just the process of it alone makes it a blast for me. :)
 
cortexodus said:
Or, maybe, most PCs simply haven't required a hardware upgrade or replacement in several years and continue to run fine. I've never understood why all economic markers expect infinite growth forever. If there's even a remote drop in growth, it's considered a "downward spiral". Anecdotally, I've helped more people buy new laptops or build desktop machines in the last year than I have in the past 5yrs...
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Exactly how I see it.
I don't know where that concept of infinite growth came from either, but it's silly.

I'm in the IT biz and I still see a moderate pace of new system and IT equipment
purchases. I install new systems and laptops regularly. A few new servers here
and there too.

I did an overhaul upgrade of my main system for the first time in 8 years at Christmas
(was a Q9650, now a 4790K) and I bought a new Dell server for myself a few weeks ago.

Overall, I see no signs of "a dying PC market".
 
Most of the world doesn't need a desktop for email anymore and I don't see CPUs advancing anywhere near as fast as yesteryear.
 
well like everybody else said, the motivation to upgrade is pretty low right now. Intel's focus has been on mobile, power consumption, and integrated graphics. There is pretty much nothing there for desktop users.

AMD has been MIA for 5 years.

Microsoft has been lowering the requirements of windows for the last 5 years, but haven't done much to make windows updates, maintenance, etc easier. Still the number one complaint I hear is that everytime somebody turns their pc on, windows updates! (And if you use it only once week or so, that's true).

Games have been targeting xbox 360 forever and the ps4/one are not spec'd high enough to demand upgrades.

Seems to me if they wanted to boost desktop PC sales, Intel just needs double the core count at all price points (totally doable but seems unlikely) and AMD/NVIDIA need the new process nodes for doubling video card performance (happening this year).

Pretty sure you'd get a mad rush of enthusiasts upgrading. Perhaps enough to show growth for a year. But unless intel plans to increase core counts again the following year... it'll die down right away. There won't be a new node for video cards for years and presumably intel's ipc gains next year will be 5% or less.
 
ManofGod said:
I have to admit that I do feel a little sorry for you. ;) The older I get, the more I enjoy building machines, whether they be low end or high end, just the process of it alone makes it a blast for me. :)
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Yar,I feel the same way. It's kind of relaxing for me (until the blasted software installation), I imagine it's the same type of feeling that somebody would have building/painting miniature ship models into bottles.
 
I wonder how they count the new lower power alternatives now too. Lots of people building Pi machines or going with an Atom machine for basic movie watching and browsing.
 
otherweeb said:
Most of the world doesn't need a desktop for email anymore and I don't see CPUs advancing anywhere near as fast as yesteryear.
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These PC numbers aren't just desktops but include laptops ... Desktops have been a niche part of the PC market for around half a decade or longer
 
I have a rather unique experience in this department I can share to maybe make some of you feel better. I know I am not the only die hard fan that hears this type of stuff and becomes worried.

In the mid to late 80's when I was in college, my University was part of the Commodore Amiga Education program where you could get a Monitor, Amiga 500, Disk Driver and Software package for $499. I think the normal price for all of that was maybe $1,1000 dollars. So I bought one since it was at the time a really fantastic deal. For comparison, IBM x86 was doing 4 color VGA, if that and the Amiga could do 4,086 Colors HAM, but normally 32 colors I think.

Back then, you could still get Amiga software at Babbage's, Software Etc, Mom and Pop shops and even, believe it or not, Toy's R Us. Also, mail order was very popular as well.

Toward the end of the 80's, The Amiga was dying off in popularity and the PC was starting to shine. Think Star Trek, X-Com and Wing Commander as some of the hot hot titles. In 91 and 92, the Amiga was being liquidated everywhere in the Untied States. So as an Amiga user and huge fan, this was distressing to say the least. The Amiga died over-night and Europe kept it alive over the next 5 years or so.

So, here is where my 'unique experience' that relates to the PC declining comes in. When the Amiga died out, which I promise was 1/1000th of what the PC will ever be at rock bottom, there was still a lot of new content coming out over-seas. Personally, I think the experience will be a good one for us over the next 10 years. It will flush a lot of the crap game dev's down the toilet along with tons of bullshit companies and their sub-par products that floods the PC market.

I wouldn't worry and in fact, would look forward to the PC market shrinking. There will be more than enough meet on the bones for years to come and companies can and will survive on a market that will eventually be 1/10th of what it is today.

The PC scene will get back to it's cool niche self and I look forward to that. The other side of the coin that will be the saving grace eventually is when mobile phones become super powerful within the next 10 years. Who knows, maybe the mobile GPU's of tomorrow will be just as powerful as the 980ti's are today.
 
cortexodus said:
Or, maybe, most PCs simply haven't required a hardware upgrade or replacement in several years and continue to run fine. I've never understood why all economic markers expect infinite growth forever. If there's even a remote drop in growth, it's considered a "downward spiral". Anecdotally, I've helped more people buy new laptops or build desktop machines in the last year than I have in the past 5yrs...
Click to expand...
Without dividends the only way stockholders are making money is that the stock price increase, or the buy low sell high, and then the stock is suppose to rise. If it stands still they might as well keep the money in their pockets in their minds
 
My main box Just got a new motherboard (Z97 Extreme6 ASRock).
It has 6 SSD's & 7TB of hard disk storage for VMS (empty right now).
It has 16G of ram and a 4770k.
It has a GTX 670 which plays all my games under linux fine for now.

Nowhere really to go from here....

The thing is lightning fast as it is.
 
SixFootDuo said:
Here is a wired article that talks about how the decline is actually not even that bad.

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-great-pc-decline-isnt-as-bad-as-it-looks/
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As the article you linked to says, "there's lots of moving parts" which have already been mentioned in this thread. And perhaps the most important part of all of these moving pieces is that we ultimately still aren't moving away from PCs for the most productive or power hungry tasks.

Basically what I see is this:

1. The low end of the PC market will probably continue to contract indefinitely as these kinds of devices are the ones that people typically don't need for the power of a PC and tablets and smartphones suffice.

2. PCs above the low end are essentially durable goods now that simply don't need to be replaced as often. Even with the controversial nature of Windows 10 in a place like this, a lot of older PCs will be able to get extended life and support without new hardware with the currently free upgrade. And specific upgrades like faster hard drives, SSDs and memory can extended the life even more.

3. The PC form factor is beginning to change. While the concept of the Tablet PC is almost 15 years old, the hardware and software and pricing have finally come together to make these devices attractive to what appears even by these surveys a pretty hot market. While these devices should by next year make up enough of the loss of conventional PC sales to turn the contraction of the PC market into growth for the first time since 2011.

4. As low end PC sales contract and more exotic things like hybrids take their place, the average selling price of PCs should rise a bit. The PC market will become more "premium" so to speak. In addition to 2 in 1s, gaming laptops, ultra-powerful desktops and other non-conventional PC form factors and concepts will become more important again as the low end contracts.

TL;DR, the PC market will be a challenging one as the days of just selling cheap junk on autopilot comes to an end and the low end PC market contracts. But on the higher end of the spectrum, OEMs that invest and innovate in slick and cool designs will be able to generate better margins on flat sales in terms of volume.
 
andrewaggb said:
well like everybody else said, the motivation to upgrade is pretty low right now. Intel's focus has been on mobile, power consumption, and integrated graphics. There is pretty much nothing there for desktop users.

AMD has been MIA for 5 years.

Microsoft has been lowering the requirements of windows for the last 5 years, but haven't done much to make windows updates, maintenance, etc easier. Still the number one complaint I hear is that everytime somebody turns their pc on, windows updates! (And if you use it only once week or so, that's true).

Games have been targeting xbox 360 forever and the ps4/one are not spec'd high enough to demand upgrades.

Seems to me if they wanted to boost desktop PC sales, Intel just needs double the core count at all price points (totally doable but seems unlikely) and AMD/NVIDIA need the new process nodes for doubling video card performance (happening this year).

Pretty sure you'd get a mad rush of enthusiasts upgrading. Perhaps enough to show growth for a year. But unless intel plans to increase core counts again the following year... it'll die down right away. There won't be a new node for video cards for years and presumably intel's ipc gains next year will be 5% or less.
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It is easy software drives the hardware market. When there is no software demanding enough to pursuit new hardware there will be a "slump".

With the combined brains of these people did not help either.

PC does
The best Windows ever
Windows 10 combines the familiar features you love—like the Start menu—with new ones that you’ll fall for, like the brand-new Microsoft Edge browser, and Cortana*, your truly personal digital assistant.
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Yep Windows 10 is something that did not drive PC sales , totally weird...
 
Pieter3dnow said:
Yep Windows 10 is something that did not drive PC sales , totally weird...
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How would something that most existing PC users can get today for free drive the sales of new conventional PCs? I think most analysts predicted that free Windows 10, regardless of how one perceives its quality, would dampen new PC sales overall, at least initially.

However, Windows 10 may have helped drive sales of 2 in 1s along with ever better 2 in 1 hardware.
 
Having built my computers for a very long time, I replace a part when I want to or need to, but only buy the parts to build another maybe every six or so years. We have reached the point where there is not much need to constantly buy new computers, as the lifespans are longer. With that said, I always laugh when I see these doom and gloom articles. No industry is guaranteed year over year sales increases, much less to have the increases for eternity. The OEM's traditionally do not make very much from the hardware themselves, so these articles are not realistic.
 
Dv8ted21 said:
Having built my computers for a very long time, I replace a part when I want to or need to, but only buy the parts to build another maybe every six or so years. We have reached the point where there is not much need to constantly buy new computers, as the lifespans are longer. With that said, I always laugh when I see these doom and gloom articles. No industry is guaranteed year over year sales increases, much less to have the increases for eternity. The OEM's traditionally do not make very much from the hardware themselves, so these articles are not realistic.
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This and the fact that fewer sales does not mean fewer existing PC's. I work for a company where a big part of my responsibility is PC repair. (The OS does not matter, including Macs.) Whether someone buys a new PC and needs help setting up with data transfer or just needs a hard drive replacement, It is still there and has not declined.

I do think that with the increase of the security in Windows over the last 5 years, infections are not as common as they once where. That and folks are becoming a bit more educated than they once where.
 
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