Why The Apple Watch Is Flopping

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Oh, I don't know, maybe because everything you used to do with one hand on your smartphone now requires two hands to do with an Apple Watch? That would be my first guess. ;)

Now, a new report from third-party analysts Slice Intelligence not only show that Apple Watch sales are down 90% since launch—a big deal, since it implies early adopters aren't regaling more cautious buyers with glowing word-of-mouth—but also that Fitbit is outselling Apple in the wearables space.
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Perhaps it might be an idea to find out how Slice Intelligence actually compile their numbers before getting your little Android loving Woodies hard.
 
The Apple Watch feels like some sort of testbed product. It's like Apple has something -really- cool in some prototype phase and the Watch uses some of the tech they want to get the kinks out of. Right? Right? Please say I'm right ; ;

Other than that I have no idea why they made a watch.
 
We were at a car club gathering at a local Sonic some guy wanted to show me what the iWatch could do....first thing he does is ask me to hold his drink so he could use his watch. I was like WTF? How did no one at Apple think about that?

I can open a video, surf the net, make a call etc. etc. etc. with one hand on my phone...Apple Watch owners can't hold a drink and use their phone at the same time. :confused:
 
Steve said:
We were at a car club gathering at a local Sonic some guy wanted to show me what the iWatch could do....first thing he does is ask me to hold his drink so he could use his watch. I was like WTF? How did no one at Apple think about that?

I can open a video, surf the net, make a call etc. etc. etc. with one hand on my phone...Apple Watch owners can't hold a drink and use their phone at the same time. :confused:
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Where the watch with the face on the inside of your wrist. Problem solved. Sounds like this car guy was dumb ;)

I really don't see the point of one of any smart watch at this point. Originally, I thought the 18 hour battery life was fine...who wears a watch at night anyway? But the more I think about, isn't this supposed to replace a Fit Bit too? If so, how can it monitor your sleep if you have to charge it at night?

I really don't think this will be a thing before version 3 (assuming it eventually takes off).
 
Well I don't think it even has a reason to exist. Typically good technology helps you do something you couldn't do before. Fitbit works because it does one thing you couldn't really do before and it does that one thing well.

The Apple Watch tries to be a whole lot of things and most of those things you don't need. Tell time? That's why I have a phone. Make a call? Um my phone. Auto reply to text message? Um sir I bought a phone it does those things.

About the only thing the Apple Watch does that's helpful is the fitness aspect of it, but Fitbit does it better with battery life measure in days, not 18 hours.

And there you go... the reason why it's flopping.
 
All these stories about it flopping based on no actual data about it flopping.

Everything is based on one marketing company's assumption about sales, not based on any actual supply chain data.
 
Xrave said:
All these stories about it flopping based on no actual data about it flopping.

Everything is based on one marketing company's assumption about sales, not based on any actual supply chain data.
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Exactly.

"Slice Intelligence bases these numbers on e-receipt data it received from its panel of 2.5 million online shoppers in the U.S."

OK... so Slice has a pool of about 2.5 million people they keep track of.

But if someone isn't included in that pool of people... their Apple Watch sale isn't counted at all. Nor if they walk into an Apple Store and buy one.

And Slice has ZERO data on sales outside the US either.

I have no doubt that Apple Watch sales today are lower than the first week. It happens to all major products after a launch.

We just gotta figure out what a "normal" amount of sales looks like before we can decide if it's a "flop" or not.

Hell... 5,000 Apple watches a day in the US-only is pretty good... for a rather expensive, totally optional piece of tech.
 
It's flopping because it's $350. Most iPhone owners don't pay for their iPhones directly, they get them free with a contract.
 
When an Apple enthusiast like me finds no redeeming value in the Apple watch, you know there was a problem with projected demand.

Of course, I see no redeeming value in ANY smart watch.
 
The fact that it requires an iphone to do many things kind of makes it useless, why use a watch to do what your phone already does?

It'd be one thing if that thing wasn't required, I could see people being interested in it, but when it requires a phone for many things it kind of makes many people say "why do I need the watch then if my phone already does that?"
 
Ill get one when I can speak into it "KITT, meet me in the front of the store" and my car arrives there.
 
I wrote a scifi story c1990 in which every one had a wc (wrist comp not water closet) which was linked via satellite so it could stay connected and the interface was verbal but they could also provide a full projected holographic display...until such a device is reality I'll pass on these interim devices. Oh and they never needed recharging.
 
Stiler said:
The fact that it requires an iphone to do many things kind of makes it useless, why use a watch to do what your phone already does?

It'd be one thing if that thing wasn't required, I could see people being interested in it, but when it requires a phone for many things it kind of makes many people say "why do I need the watch then if my phone already does that?"
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This.
 
MScrip said:
Exactly.

"Slice Intelligence bases these numbers on e-receipt data it received from its panel of 2.5 million online shoppers in the U.S."

OK... so Slice has a pool of about 2.5 million people they keep track of.

But if someone isn't included in that pool of people... their Apple Watch sale isn't counted at all.
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Irrelevant. You can poll 1000 people on the outcome in an election and you'll be able to nail it within a few points. The only question is how they select the people they track
 
Siri, bring my car to me.
"Sorry Michael, I can't do that cause my battery is low."
Waste of $350!

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I have been using an Apple Watch for about 3 weeks. It's not mine - its for work (iOS software development/testing). I've also been an iPhone owner for about 5 years.
I like the watch - it's convenient to preview an email/text, screen calls during a meeting, etc. However, it's just as distracting to check my wrist as it is to check my phone in a meeting. Really, I think its rude to do either and not focus on the meeting.
The fitness part of the watch seems to be nice. It reminds you to stand up once an hour (I don't always follow its advice), exercise function seems good - but I have nothing to compare it to. I'm not using a FitBit or anything.
Interacting with the watch is fine once you get used to it. Use the Crown so you can see the screen. Compared to Android watches I've used, I'm giving the nod to Apple. I think it is more intuitive and easier to use. (Then again, I also use an iPhone more than Android so admit there could be bias in my opinion.)
Battery life: good. After wearing it for 12-14 hours, I still have 50-60% battery left.

Big question: Would I buy this for personal use? I gotta say no. Compared to other smart watches, I think it is the best I've used. That said, I still don't see smart watches as a must have. $400 is a lot of money - I would rather do something else with it.
 
I think the reason why it's flopping is because they're using a very limp wristband. That'd make it really, really floppy.
 
Xrave said:
All these stories about it flopping based on no actual data about it flopping.

Everything is based on one marketing company's assumption about sales, not based on any actual supply chain data.
Click to expand...

Here's what I know Apple is always quick to boast about their sales numbers on their products typically. With the Apple Watch they've gone completely silent.
 
Who uses watches anymore, honestly? I pick up my cell phone if I need the time. If it super light weight and unobtrusive, maybe. But's it's far from that. Hell, I bought a Fitbit Charge HR and thought it was way to bulky and returned it.
 
yesterday i happened to be in an apple store it was packed but what was interesting was absolutely not a single person around the apple watch display case. as i predicted these watches are about as useful as a boner in prison.
 
It's "failing" because it's an extremely overpriced smartwatch. Plain and simple. I'm sure they sold a bunch of them but they most likely fell far short of expectations. It's a very small niche market that I'd bet 80% (or more) of the population doesn't give a shit about.

Look I own a smartwatch and I laughed when I saw the estimates for the Apple Watch. I knew it wouldn't happen. A smartwatch isn't revolutionary. It isn't life changing. It's an accessory to your phone nothing more and nothing less. It's there for quick access to information so you know if you need to respond right then or if it can wait till later. People don't want to look at Instagram or Facebook or answer e-mails on a tiny ass screen. They'd rather pull out their phone.
 
DPI said:
Here's what I know Apple is always quick to boast about their sales numbers on their products typically. With the Apple Watch they've gone completely silent.
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I don't think any of those numbers are actually from Apple. The iPhone sales numbers are 3rd party results, similar to this.

I believe the official Apple numbers are only released in their fiscal reports.

The last quarterly report was for sales through March 28. The Apple watch started sales on April 10.

There is no official Apple data on the Watch sales...yet. But the next report is on July 21. Then we will get some real data, which might actually show what everyone else is assuming.
 
When the watch IS the phone this sort of thing will be sort of ready for prime time.

It's just not very attractive to anyone but an Apple fan right now.

Plus who the hell wants the first generation of anything?
 
nilepez said:
Irrelevant. You can poll 1000 people on the outcome in an election and you'll be able to nail it within a few points. The only question is how they select the people they track
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My issue has less to do with Slice and their testing methodologies... and more to do with whether their data alone can prove if the Apple watch is a "flop" or not.

Slice says Apple Watch sales have slowed down to 5,000 per day in the US. If we simply looked at that figure... is the Apple Watch a flop?

How many watches should Apple be selling?

And what if we added the other 18 countries that the Apple Watch is currently available in? That will add a bunch of additional Apple Watches that Slice has no clue about.

You're right... if Slice's data shows a slowdown in the US... there might also be a slowdown elsewhere in the world.

But Apple Watches continue to sell. I don't think 2 months and one analyst in the US are enough to label it a "flop"
 
I got the Apple watch budget edition a couple years back, I traded in a broken 1st gen ipod nano under the recall and got a 6th gen nano for free, then went to dealextreme and got a lunatik knock off watch case for it, the nano actually holds more music then the real apple watch and it has real radio. Apple can suck my bawls.
 
Stimpy88 said:
Perhaps it might be an idea to find out how Slice Intelligence actually compile their numbers before getting your little Android loving Woodies hard.
Click to expand...

The fact that Apple will not release any sales numbers at all is pretty telling. They had no problems doing so when the iPhonen was a hit.
 
I already have a phone I need to plug in nightly. I don't want a watch that does the same, and basically adds no extra functionality.

That, plus my watch's battery lasts years, and if I want to go anywhere, including camping, it will always tell time.
 
officer921 said:
Who uses watches anymore, honestly? I pick up my cell phone if I need the time. If it super light weight and unobtrusive, maybe. But's it's far from that. Hell, I bought a Fitbit Charge HR and thought it was way to bulky and returned it.
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You don't buy a Rolex to tell time.
 
Vermillion said:
It's "failing" because it's an extremely overpriced smartwatch. Plain and simple. I'm sure they sold a bunch of them but they most likely fell far short of expectations. It's a very small niche market that I'd bet 80% (or more) of the population doesn't give a shit about.
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How is that different from the original iPhone? It sold roughly 6.5 million during the year it was available. The watch had something like 1.5 million sold during the presale and now sells 20k/day.

If they get 11 months of 20k/day that's roughly 45*7*20,000 or 6.3 million + the 1.5 million sold to the fan boys before the launch. Has any other smart watch come close to those figures?

I'm not saying I think the device is compelling at this time, but I don't see how that can be considered disappointing for an expensive first gen device.
 
MScrip said:
My issue has less to do with Slice and their testing methodologies... and more to do with whether their data alone can prove if the Apple watch is a "flop" or not.

Slice says Apple Watch sales have slowed down to 5,000 per day in the US. If we simply looked at that figure... is the Apple Watch a flop?

How many watches should Apple be selling?

And what if we added the other 18 countries that the Apple Watch is currently available in? That will add a bunch of additional Apple Watches that Slice has no clue about.

You're right... if Slice's data shows a slowdown in the US... there might also be a slowdown elsewhere in the world.

But Apple Watches continue to sell. I don't think 2 months and one analyst in the US are enough to label it a "flop"
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5000 would be a low figure, but according to Motley fool, slice just says something south of 20k/day (which could be anything between 0 and 19499, assuming they round). If the final sales are close to the original iPhone, it's a success. If not, it may be a disappointment, but really it's Gen 1. It took MS at least 10 years to get Windows right...arguably longer.

IMO, the iPod wasn't a good device until the 5th gen (when they finally implemented gapless playback). This is from someone that wanted to buy one in 2003 or 2004 and bought a Rio Karma, because their UI was about as good (but different) and the EQ and gapless play back blew the iPod away. AFAIK, the iPhone still doesn't have an EQ (I use a 3rd party player for my music server, and it has a nice EQ...though it sometimes struggles with gapless) :(
 
Twisted Kidney said:
When the watch IS the phone this sort of thing will be sort of ready for prime time.

It's just not very attractive to anyone but an Apple fan right now.

Plus who the hell wants the first generation of anything?
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I don't see that happening. Screens aren't shrinking, they're growing. Nobody wants to have a watch screen as their only screen. The phone ain't going anywhere. IMO, the reason the watches may take off is because screens have grown so much. We'll see. I think virtually all of us in this thread agree they don't want/need a smart watch at this time...but that may change in 2 or 3 years. As you said, it's Gen 1...and only early adopters buy gen1.
 
nilepez said:
5000 would be a low figure, but according to Motley fool, slice just says something south of 20k/day (which could be anything between 0 and 19499, assuming they round). If the final sales are close to the original iPhone, it's a success. If not, it may be a disappointment, but really it's Gen 1. It took MS at least 10 years to get Windows right...arguably longer.
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Thanks for the Motley Fool info!

Slice had a chart that indicated 5,000 per day... so that's where I got that number: http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/559c5143ecad0458251d42ca-1200-667/apple%20watches%20sold%20by%20day.png

The Fool article also raises the question whether or not Slice counts retail sales as opposed to strictly online sales... and also international sales.

And that's what I was saying earlier... the Slice data apparently isn't looking at the total picture.


EDIT... that Slice chart specifically says "US Online Apple Watch Sales By Day"

So there we go. :)

Slice only measures a sampling of US online buyers... not Apple Store walk-ins... and they know nothing about sales in the other 18 countries around the world.

So if Slice is guessing 15,000 to 20,000 Apple Watches per day in the US... that number could be 50,000 to 80,000 per day across the world.

And that's a fuckton of watches. :D
 
Seen only two in the wild so far.

The first was a couple of weeks after launch. The guy was giving me a rave review of it. He was so excited that it now told him masses of mundane data about his day that he and no one else ever needed to know or cared about.

Pointless.
 
GaryJohnson said:
It's flopping because it's $350. Most iPhone owners don't pay for their iPhones directly, they get them free with a contract.
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The only iPhone you get free with your contract is the older model.
Current model is usually $200+ if it's subsidized, or you pay the entire cost over time, which is what a lot of carriers are doing with all of the expensive phones, or you lease it and turn it it in when the lease is up.
 
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