Amazon Drones Are 'Fantasy,' says eBay CEO

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
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The CEO of eBay basically called out Amazon CEO, Jeff Bezos, on his recent announcement concerning the use of drones to deliver packages within 30 minutes of less. John Donahue has called shens on Jeff Bezos. :D

Bezos told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that he hopes to have a drone-based delivery service ready by 2015, when he anticipates the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration will have formulated rules for civilian drone use.
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if you watched 60 min he did not confirm a date for the drone service but did speculate it would be after 2015 could be 5 - 20 years out from then
 
Only time will tell if Amazon's plan will actually work. If Amazon can get certain orders delivered within 30 minutes, they are already beating eBay's 1 hour delivery service. If Amazon can do it cheaper, that is another plus. Many hurdles to get over, but I am interested to see what happens!
 
Wasn't there people that said Amazon couldn't have a completely automated warehouse?

Yeah, if someones going to do it, it's Amazon.
 
Spidey329 said:
Wasn't there people that said Amazon couldn't have a completely automated warehouse?

Yeah, if someones going to do it, it's Amazon.
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If there's anything I've learned about business, it's to never put anything past Jeff Bezos. That man can do anything he puts his mind to.
 
While the idea is neat, the implementation is beyond impractical. The costs of the hardware plus the training and compensation of the people operating them would be huge, never mind the issues with navigation through populated areas (in my neighborhood just getting through the trees would be tricky). It's crazy how much money and work would have to be put into this, and for what? So that people can get their Downton Abbey Blu-ray faster? Guess what, kids, if there's something you need/want in less than a day, most of the US population is close enough to a store to conveniently get it, and probably for less money than it would cost to utilize the silliest home delivery idea in history.

And that's the real issue. The shipping cost for this would be huge. At some point, I can picture a few drones servicing the most expensive addresses in America with Jeff Bezos claiming "See, I told you we'd make it work!" while everyone else is wondering what kind of moron would pay a $50-100 premium for drone shipping.
 
Come to think of it, maybe the idea is a scam to get more people to use next-day delivery, taking a cue from the old Wendy's marketing story: When they took the triple cheeseburger off the menu, fewer people bought the double cheeseburger, supposedly because the availability of the triple made the double look less over-indulgent.
 
I can see the lawsuits mayhem... Drone crash into roof, Drone damage a car, Drone damage rain gutter, Drone hit dog, Drone cut powerlines........ I think I file a law suits :D
 
Again, they should put the costs toward training their employees to use shipping boxes that actually fit the product.
 
That's why eBay is all stagnant and no one gives a shit about it any more. They have no dreamers.
 
I may watch too many sci-fi movies...but it seems completely reasonable to me that with the rate that technology is advancing, that drones would be the delivery man of the future.
 
CorruptedOne said:
I may watch too many sci-fi movies...but it seems completely reasonable to me that with the rate that technology is advancing, that drones would be the delivery man of the future.
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But why? Just saying "technology is advancing" is meaningless. It's the sort of thing that people said when they speculated in the 1950s that we would have practical jet packs and flying cars by now (heck, 20+ years ago, really).

Consider this: Amazon, right now (at least six days a week), can deliver the vast majority of items on their site in the US the very next day after ordering. There really is such a thing as "fast enough," especially when considering potential shipping price differentials.
 
Megalith said:
Again, they should put the costs toward training their employees to use shipping boxes that actually fit the product.
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HAHA This one made me laugh... The last thing I had delivered from Amazon was a soft bow case that was maybe 2lbs & measured 3" x 30" by 18" (and soft so it could have been squished smaller).. It came delivered in a box that was about 18" x 24" x 72".. I was easily able to crawl into the box & had room to spare.. My Daughter then got creative & made it into a car... She can fit 4 kids sitting upright in it..

As for the drones I could see it working in some of the heavily populated area's around the Amazon Warehouses, but not anywhere else. The product size & weight will be limited of course, but if they are making them for say 500 bucks each a swarm of them could save Amazon thousands a month as opposed to paying traditional parcel deliver people (each one could make several deliveries a day for the running cost of a few cents worth of electricity after the manufacturing cost's). Programming them will be more difficult, but still not all that hard. Probably have to have more human interaction for the 1st delivery to each address, but then the landing procedure gets locked to memory so other then some form of collision detection for subsequent deliveries they would be able to run completely automated on their pre-determined routes.
 
Babbster said:
While the idea is neat, the implementation is beyond impractical. The costs of the hardware plus the training and compensation of the people operating them would be huge, never mind the issues with navigation through populated areas (in my neighborhood just getting through the trees would be tricky). It's crazy how much money and work would have to be put into this, and for what? So that people can get their Downton Abbey Blu-ray faster? Guess what, kids, if there's something you need/want in less than a day, most of the US population is close enough to a store to conveniently get it, and probably for less money than it would cost to utilize the silliest home delivery idea in history.

And that's the real issue. The shipping cost for this would be huge. At some point, I can picture a few drones servicing the most expensive addresses in America with Jeff Bezos claiming "See, I told you we'd make it work!" while everyone else is wondering what kind of moron would pay a $50-100 premium for drone shipping.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind that this is ONLY for people that are within 10 miles of a warehouse. they won't send your stuff via drone 100 miles (especially in 30 minutes). This is, if you life really really close to a warehouse and could drive there in a few minutes and just pick up your stuff, they will drop if off via drone.

Trees aren't a huge issue for most of the delivery, you go over them for most of the path and then the main issue is the landing. Same for anything else. they will know what is in their area and know how high to fly to get over it. Even the landing might not be that bad. How many addresses would be within 10 miles of one of their warehouses? I am guessing they probably normally have their warehouses in a little more of a rural location outside of a larger city instead of down town of a large city, so maybe 20 - 30,000 addresses. While that is a good number of houses, you could in theory have somebody go though every address and select coordinate wise from aerial maps where the "best" landing spot would be for every address, that way you can avoid trees and stuff like that. Would take every location about a month each maybe for a single person to sit down and work on that. so hire a few temps and have them plot that for all the addresses.

I wouldn't really see why the cost should be that much more. Sure would need to be more at first since they are going to need to recover the cost of getting the system up and off the ground, but they aren't delivering very far so fuel cost could be somewhat decent depending on what the system uses for power. Next day shipping for a box through UPS can run you $40+ and yet they give this free to members of Amazon Prime. so they are already eating that cost. I could see them being able to get close to that amount if not even less.

bastage said:
HAHA This one made me laugh... The last thing I had delivered from Amazon was a soft bow case that was maybe 2lbs & measured 3" x 30" by 18" (and soft so it could have been squished smaller).. It came delivered in a box that was about 18" x 24" x 72".. I was easily able to crawl into the box & had room to spare.. My Daughter then got creative & made it into a car... She can fit 4 kids sitting upright in it..

As for the drones I could see it working in some of the heavily populated area's around the Amazon Warehouses, but not anywhere else. The product size & weight will be limited of course, but if they are making them for say 500 bucks each a swarm of them could save Amazon thousands a month as opposed to paying traditional parcel deliver people (each one could make several deliveries a day for the running cost of a few cents worth of electricity after the manufacturing cost's). Programming them will be more difficult, but still not all that hard. Probably have to have more human interaction for the 1st delivery to each address, but then the landing procedure gets locked to memory so other then some form of collision detection for subsequent deliveries they would be able to run completely automated on their pre-determined routes.
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Agreed. And that is the plan you have to be within 10 miles of their warehouse. And also thought about the same thing for the landing (as I included in the top half of this reply).

I don't see the entire thing being too unrealistic. Even if it cost them a few grand per drone, like you said I wouldn't think the cost for fuel of flying at most 20 miles round trip would be that much. So once you regain that cost per drone you are savings over the $40+ that you can get charged by UPS or fedex to ship a package. I could see this happening in some areas in the next decade.
 
With most toy quadchoppers we have now, between battery life and size they can function for about 15 minutes.
So..
Not possible with current tech except for extremely short distances with extremely light packages.
Its going to take a few years for FAA rules and regulations along with technology developing better batteries before this becomes a reality. 2015 is a pipe dream.
Its possible, but there's a lot that has to happen first.
 
Exavior said:
Keep in mind that this is ONLY for people that are within 10 miles of a warehouse. they won't send your stuff via drone 100 miles (especially in 30 minutes). This is, if you life really really close to a warehouse and could drive there in a few minutes and just pick up your stuff, they will drop if off via drone.

Trees aren't a huge issue for most of the delivery, you go over them for most of the path and then the main issue is the landing. Same for anything else. they will know what is in their area and know how high to fly to get over it. Even the landing might not be that bad. How many addresses would be within 10 miles of one of their warehouses? I am guessing they probably normally have their warehouses in a little more of a rural location outside of a larger city instead of down town of a large city, so maybe 20 - 30,000 addresses. While that is a good number of houses, you could in theory have somebody go though every address and select coordinate wise from aerial maps where the "best" landing spot would be for every address, that way you can avoid trees and stuff like that. Would take every location about a month each maybe for a single person to sit down and work on that. so hire a few temps and have them plot that for all the addresses.

I wouldn't really see why the cost should be that much more. Sure would need to be more at first since they are going to need to recover the cost of getting the system up and off the ground, but they aren't delivering very far so fuel cost could be somewhat decent depending on what the system uses for power. Next day shipping for a box through UPS can run you $40+ and yet they give this free to members of Amazon Prime. so they are already eating that cost. I could see them being able to get close to that amount if not even less.
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This is how it's currently done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAjkuJdjZw4

Much of the location work is already done by google. They've already got the cities mapped in 3D and even the individual trees are marked. If these drones are indeed the future. Google maps has a big head start as they already have the support structure and they're already being used on current autonomous civilian drones.
 
I still don't get the point of using drones. If it's just going to be deliveries to addresses near their warehouses, why don't they start next year, make it one-hour service, and use electric cars with GPS? The technology exists (without extra research, design, or even modification), it's robust, and a car can carry a whole bunch of packages. Is it that Bezos hates paying humans?
 
Babbster said:
I still don't get the point of using drones. If it's just going to be deliveries to addresses near their warehouses, why don't they start next year, make it one-hour service, and use electric cars with GPS? The technology exists (without extra research, design, or even modification), it's robust, and a car can carry a whole bunch of packages. Is it that Bezos hates paying humans?
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That would cost more. Drones are cheaper and faster.

Lets say they go your route. So start with the basics. 1 car, 1 driver. So you buy 1 car (fully electric car is what $40,000ish), then you need a driver. You also need car insurance. Unless somebody nearby orders something this driver is just sitting around doing nothing waiting for a delivery. What if there are busy times where 1 person isn't enough? So now you have 2 cars and 2 drivers. which again at times 1 or maybe even both might just be sitting around most of the time doing nothing.

Now you look at a drone, much cheaper than $40,000. you don't pay it hourly wages so if there are busy times and dead times, it doesn't matter as it isn't costing you any more.

Yes the idea does seem a little silly to a degree, but at the same time, it would be the fastest and most practical way to get quick deliveries to customers without having to have a person sitting around on stand by in the event a person within 10 miles orders something from the site. Have something leave the warehouse, take the quickest overhead path there, drop off the package and come back.
 
With as much money as amazon has in the bank, and as much as Bezos has in his pocket, even if this is a massive failure, it's still going to be FUN to work on.

All the people bitching, and generally being nay-sayers, relax and have some imagination. Just because you can't see a way for it to work, does not mean there isn't a way at all.

Sad that most of the imagination and creativity of this country died with the end of the space race.
 
Next on the news: Amazon drone hijacked; terrorizes neighborhood with carpet bombing of iPhone 5s'. :D
 
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