Analyst Says PC Industry Nearing Bottom

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According to analysts, The PC industry is nearing the bottom and the downturn in PC sales could actually slow this quarter.

Gartner analyst Tracy Tsai predicts the global slide in personal-computer shipments will slow in the fourth quarter to a 3% year-on-year drop, compared with an 8.6% fall in the third quarter. PC makers have been battling sluggish sales since tablet computers and mobile devices burst onto the scene and stole away consumers. Next year, however, world-wide shipments should be roughly flat compared with this year, Ms. Tsai said.
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All this talk about nearing a bottom is premature. You could have said this 2 or 3 years ago. I will believe it when I see it.
 
I think the main problem is that most PCs and laptops that people already have do everything that they want to do plenty fast enough.

And then there is the whole "the economy sucks right now" thing which is also going to be a contributing factor.

Then we have the hate for Windows 8 for some reason.

It isn't just because of tablets and other mobile devices which are not good for getting any real work done whatsoever.
 
Too many "analysts".

Part of me says, I thought Acer was dead already /who cares, but then again if one dies its kinda bad for consumers. I wonder which will come first, poor quality or higher prices or both? I am not sure this will have a ginormous impact on most of us, but our vendor choices/quality may diminish over time. Who knows, time will tell.
 
I know we are holding off upgrading a bunch of workstations for a while. Not that we're a "big" company by any means, only about 8 workstations... still about $20,000 worth of hardware.
 
Johnny26 said:
Too many "analysts".

Part of me says, I thought Acer was dead already /who cares, but then again if one dies its kinda bad for consumers. I wonder which will come first, poor quality or higher prices or both? I am not sure this will have a ginormous impact on most of us, but our vendor choices/quality may diminish over time. Who knows, time will tell.
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Consolidation in the industry is probably a good thing in the long run for consumers. I'd rather have 5 financially strong companies that I know that will be there for the foreseeable future than 10 weak companies that could go belly up the next quarter.
 
Part of the reason for the death is the higher prices. Back in the Day 5+ years ago, you could build a rig that would play any current game for $500. Now, not so much, video card prices are just absurd now.
 
Back in the Day 5+ years ago, you could build a rig that would play any current game for $500.
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Of course back in the day, a processor could cost $500 and RAM was only a little bit behind in costs.

I purchased an Amiga 1000 Desktop Computer in 1986, It had a Motorola 68000 processor clocked at 7.16 MHZ, 512K RAM, (Yes, that's a K, not 512MEG), it didn't have a hard drive, it came with a 3 1/2" Floppy, and it cost good $2,000 and was the shit brother, the best hardware on the planet at the time. And that was $2,000 in 1986, not now, so you can add another $500 at least and call it inflation dollars. Later I added a RAM card with another 512K for a total of 1MEG of RAM, it cost $300.

Everything is relative.
 
plupien79 said:
Part of the reason for the death is the higher prices. Back in the Day 5+ years ago, you could build a rig that would play any current game for $500. Now, not so much, video card prices are just absurd now.
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I find 100% of your post erroneous.

Now, more than ever, you can build a gaming rig for cheap. If you think you need a $1000 video card to play current titles, you're the mayor of Toronto.
 
I'm starting to think the downturn in PCs has much to do with win8 and the crooked tactics of sales people.
RECENT example:

My mother-in-law needed to replace her ancient PC.
(actually she called me to fix it but I told her it was time to buy a new one. I didn't want to touch that 15 year old junk)
She does not want a laptop, she does not want a smart phone or a tablet. She wants a desktop PC.
I advised her a basic PC is needed but avoid Window 8 like the plague and insist on a PC with windows 7.
She goes to office store to purchase the PC and the jerk salesperson does everything to avoid selling her what she asks for. After being told nobody sell PCs with Windows 7 anymore she left the store with a PC with windows 8 and found it impossible to figure out.
She called me wanting me to "fix it" some how. I told her to call the store back and demand to speak to a manager, the salesperson lied to her. She did that and found out they had several PCs with windows 7 she could have purchased. She returned to exchange it for a win7 PC but still didn't escape the rip off upsell of making the PC "internet ready" to the tune of a $40 extra charge. At least now she has something she understands how to use and was happy. I didn't have the heart to tell her she was ripped off with the up sell since the PC was already internet ready and the setup is completely automatic.
 
The pc needs a less range of products. I love options but Intel sells five different mid range cpu's. That is extremely confusing and can seem daunting.
 
plupien79 said:
Part of the reason for the death is the higher prices. Back in the Day 5+ years ago, you could build a rig that would play any current game for $500. Now, not so much, video card prices are just absurd now.
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Maybe if you like playing 1-2 FPS.
 
Anal + Cyst ~= Analyst.

Prices? HAHAHA!! A 80486DX-33 CPU was $1000. 16 megabytes of RAM was $1200. A decent monitor was $500. This is when a new car cost $5000.
 
Dr. Righteous said:
She does not want a laptop, she does not want a smart phone or a tablet. She wants a desktop PC.
I advised her a basic PC is needed but avoid Window 8 like the plague and insist on a PC with windows 7.
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Had the same issue with an older (over 80) relative.
They had a problem with their 7 year old PC, and where told it would cost over $400 to replace the power button.

Instead, I bought them a new Dell business level system with Windows 7 from the Dell outlet store for <$400 shipped. 3 year on-site warranty, and the new PC was 2x the speed. They had little/no trouble switching from XP to Windows 7. I couldn't imaging trying to explain to them how to use Windows 8 with all the changes.
 
Mac industry however, is projected to grow substantially.


I keed. I keed.
 
Back in the day a computer was obsolete by the time you got home. Hardware couldn't keep up with software demands. Remember burning CD's and having audio corruption because your computer couldn't keep up with the burner, then came DVD, Blu-ray, high speed internet, etc that hardware had to keep up with. Now hardware is so stinking fast that you can buy a computer and it will run everything fine for years longer than before. The rig in my sig is still plenty fast enough to work in Photoshop/Illustrator, watch HD videos, and do just about anything else I need to do. Computers didn't have that kind of shelf life during the PC boom.

Not to mention that PC's didn't have competition back then. Now the desktop/laptop market is competing with low price phones and tablets. Many of us can't operate without a dedicated computer but 99% of the population doesn't need, nor do they use, computers in the home any more. Tablets and phones fit their needs better. Tech sales are through the roof, the slow downturn of PC's isn't a mystery.
 
Now the desktop/laptop market is competing with low price phones and tablets.
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I don't find these items low priced at all. Get your phone stolen and see what it costs to buy a new one at retail, add in your monthly charges. A Phone with service for my wife and I runs over $100 a month plus the initial outlay for the phones. I find nothing cheap about it, they are expensive luxuries. It's a $300 dollar laptop that is affordable and tailored to your needs, not the other toys.
 
I won't acknowledge that we're nearing a bottom in the PC industry until there is a significant installed base of x86 tablets running Windows vs ARM/iOS or ARM/Android. 'Cause it's largely consumer defections who are responsible for the shrinking PC market.
 
I don't like the way they throw out these attention grabber titles. How does "nearing bottom" translate into "a predicted slow in the fourth quarter". Am I missing something here or do these people really want you to read their horseshit that badly?
 
Am I missing something here or do these people really want you to read their horseshit that badly?
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You aren't missing anything at all. They will stretch the truth and everything else to make a headline look juicier then the story warrants. This is no different then the reporting on the NSA stuff I have been trying to get across. The media is out of control and off the reservation when it comes to any level of responsible reporting.
 
Qinsp said:
Anal + Cyst ~= Analyst.

Prices? HAHAHA!! A 80486DX-33 CPU was $1000. 16 megabytes of RAM was $1200. A decent monitor was $500. This is when a new car cost $5000.
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$5000 for a new car? Not quite. MAYBE a Yugo, but not a descent new car.
 
With Intel's lack of innovation, due to not having any competition, I doubt we're close to the bottom yet. Right now, the only reason to upgrade any system bought in the last 4 years is if dies. I doubt Windows 8 has that much to do with this problem.
 
pxc said:
I won't acknowledge that we're nearing a bottom in the PC industry until there is a significant installed base of x86 tablets running Windows vs ARM/iOS or ARM/Android. 'Cause it's largely consumer defections who are responsible for the shrinking PC market.
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From the OP article:

There’s one caveat, however: Gartner’s forecast includes some hybrid devices that some may classify as tablets.

PC makers themselves are also changing their definitions of what a PC is – in the past year in Taiwan, Acer and Asustek have both changed their methods of classifying their devices to account for new products like tablets with removable keyboards.
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So we have tablets, hybrids and convertibles and I'm assuming that hybrids and convertibles are being counted as PCs but pure tablets aren't, but then what does that make something like a Surface Pro? In any case, it will be interesting to see how the non-traditional PC form factors sell this holiday in the consumer space. I'm expecting some decent to good numbers because there are some nice devices at good prices out this year, from something like the Asus T100 and these new 8" Windows 8 tablets that are in line with the costs of mid to upper-range Android tablets and much faster than last year's Atom based devices. They seem to be getting good reviews on Amazon and around the web and the price some of these things are coming on sale, they will probably end up under a lot of trees.
 
dgingeri said:
With Intel's lack of innovation, due to not having any competition, I doubt we're close to the bottom yet. Right now, the only reason to upgrade any system bought in the last 4 years is if dies. I doubt Windows 8 has that much to do with this problem.
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Intel has concentrated most of efforts on Atom SoCs and the results are pretty impressive. The Atom is no longer slow and can now fit in $300 8" tablets that are probably faster than a lot older desktops out there.
 
heatlesssun said:
From the OP article:
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What does that have to do with what I wrote? ARM-based tablets (iOS, Android) are on pace to sell over 180 million units in 2013. x86 will still has negligible tablet share this year. Generously including x86 laptops with a touch screen into x86 "tablet" totals, you're only looking at around 25 million units of touch capable x86 laptops and tablets (of course you wouldn't want to include laptops in those totals due very few being convertible models -- not tablets).
 
pxc said:
What does that have to do with what I wrote? ARM-based tablets (iOS, Android) are on pace to sell over 180 million units in 2013. x86 will still has negligible tablet share this year. Generously including x86 laptops with a touch screen into x86 "tablet" totals, you're only looking at around 25 million units of touch capable x86 laptops and tablets (of course you wouldn't want to include laptops in those totals due very few being convertible models -- not tablets).
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I don't disagree with you're original point, I'm simply saying that it's not going to be a very clear cut count. A device like the T100 that comes with a keyboard but is completely detachable and the size of the Note 10 but will probably not be counted as a tablet even though that's what it when not in the dock. At any rate, there are more x86 tablet/hybrid/touch laptop options that are price competitive with tablets and that wasn't the case last year. There's a lot more overlap and competition.
 
Does this take into account people buying parts or small mom and pop computer stores?

My ccompny buys about 500 pcs a year but we do it from a local store that custom builds them
 
With a cheap processor and at least 4GB of ram any average joe would be satisfied. Until the software demands hardware that requires the average joe to upgrade there will still be people not buying new computers. Most dual cores are enough for surfing the internet and youtube. Most average people open up only a couple to a few tabs only so ram can be as little as 1-2GB. The upgrade justification for the average joe is just not there right now.
 
Conker said:
With a cheap processor and at least 4GB of ram any average joe would be satisfied. Until the software demands hardware that requires the average joe to upgrade there will still be people not buying new computers. Most dual cores are enough for surfing the internet and youtube. Most average people open up only a couple to a few tabs only so ram can be as little as 1-2GB. The upgrade justification for the average joe is just not there right now.
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I think this one reason why Windows 8 and new touch and more mobile devices are important to the future of PCs. More and more top level performance and hardware isn't what's driving consumer computing today. Small and light PCs with great battery life with good enough performance will be critical to PC growth into future.
 
Internet requirements have mostly driven Joe blow to upgrade to this point, the internet applications aren't going to require anymore resources now since we have caps. A company has to come out with a game changer program to breath new life in the stale pc market.
 
cyclone3d said:
http://www.caranddriver.com/features/1990-10best-cars

According to that, you could get a no frills Honda Civic for $6700.

Still, $5k for any kind of new car in 1990 was kinda not really happening.
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Kind of sickening that now for a base model vehicle you are looking at $20K.

When the Yugo hit in the mid 80s the advertising blitz was "a new car for $3990.00".
I knew several people that had them. Actually the engine and transmission was fairly reliable but the built quality of the body, interior etc was ridiculously bad. Owners had to stock up on things like door handles and window cranks because they broke so often.

yugo_gv2.jpg
 
cyclone3d said:
http://www.caranddriver.com/features/1990-10best-cars

According to that, you could get a no frills Honda Civic for $6700.

Still, $5k for any kind of new car in 1990 was kinda not really happening.
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IIRC, I bought a 1990 Nissan Hardbody work truck. Stripped. No AC, no Radio, etc.
It was less than $6000 after tax, license, transportation. So just over $5k MSRP.

The Chevy Sprint wasn't too pricey either.
 
I agree that slowing hardware development has a lot to do with slowing PC sales. Here's one example.

Earlier this year I had a customer bring in their desktop that really wasn't that old, it was a Quad-Core Phenom x4 with 7GB RAM and Integrated Geforce 6150 video running Vista that they bought back in '08. It was slow because it was infested with malware (not because of the hardware) but they were so sick of it they just wanted me to move their files, etc over to a new laptop they bought. After I was done they told me I could just keep the old desktop PC.

It might be a 5 year old PC at this point but it's still a Quad-Core with 7GB of Ram. I did a fresh format and put Windows 7 64-bit on there, etc. It's just like a new PC at this point, ready to be someone's office computer for the next 10 years.
 
GotNoRice said:
I agree that slowing hardware development has a lot to do with slowing PC sales. Here's one example.

Earlier this year I had a customer bring in their desktop that really wasn't that old, it was a Quad-Core Phenom x4 with 7GB RAM and Integrated Geforce 6150 video running Vista that they bought back in '08. It was slow because it was infested with malware (not because of the hardware) but they were so sick of it they just wanted me to move their files, etc over to a new laptop they bought. After I was done they told me I could just keep the old desktop PC.

It might be a 5 year old PC at this point but it's still a Quad-Core with 7GB of Ram. I did a fresh format and put Windows 7 64-bit on there, etc. It's just like a new PC at this point, ready to be someone's office computer for the next 10 years.
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"it was obsolete before i opened the box"

Ya if you have a core2duo with $30 in ram it will run any os and non game application fine. Pop in a $150 SSD (yes your pc has to be less than a decade old) and everyone will consider the pc "fast".

Hell pop in a ssd with the worlds slowest win8 fast boot compatible system, and it will be god like to any non gamer, and cost like $400.
 
The enterprise segment rules all sales volume, and the enterprise segment says that mobility is king. With the computing power and software capability now available in phones and tablets, I am not surprised in the least that PC sales have been declining for some time now and will continue to do so.

I have to give praise to AMD...it upset a lot of us when they announced that they would no longer compete in the performance/enthusiast CPU segment some time ago, but they get mad props for keeping their focus on a long-term success and survival plan, which is develop a hell of a good mobile APU, then keep refining and shrinking it going forward so that it can be applied to just about any type of mobile computing device 5-10 years from now.

And, in 5-10 years, I have a feeling that most enterprises will be buying some form of tablet (and likely a docking station, external monitor, keyboard, and mouse to go with it) as the daily driver for almost all of their employees instead of a traditional "clunky" desktop or laptop.
 
DejaWiz said:
The enterprise segment rules all sales volume, and the enterprise segment says that mobility is king. With the computing power and software capability now available in phones and tablets, I am not surprised in the least that PC sales have been declining for some time now and will continue to do so.

I have to give praise to AMD...it upset a lot of us when they announced that they would no longer compete in the performance/enthusiast CPU segment some time ago, but they get mad props for keeping their focus on a long-term success and survival plan, which is develop a hell of a good mobile APU, then keep refining and shrinking it going forward so that it can be applied to just about any type of mobile computing device 5-10 years from now.

And, in 5-10 years, I have a feeling that most enterprises will be buying some form of tablet (and likely a docking station, external monitor, keyboard, and mouse to go with it) as the daily driver for almost all of their employees instead of a traditional "clunky" desktop or laptop.
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It is hard to predict what the future will hold. BUT, I will give it a shot. :D
If you are really talking about portability I'm thinking of a "armband" or wearable computer in some way. The display will be a Google Glasses type deal. Also instead of a keyboard it will be voice commands and dictation.
Mouse control will be accomplished eye tracking. All this tech is currently out there in one form or another. It will come together in one complete system you wear. All data will be cloud based. The form factor can vary. It could all be included in some kind of headset.
But I think what will be most comfortable will be wearing "glasses" and that is all you will see as the person fully engaged in work as he or she walks down the street.
 
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