HDD Pricewatch: Higher Prices Are the New Normal

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
Joined
May 9, 2000
Messages
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The floods are just a distant memory, the production of hard disk drives is getting back to normal and the prices are……still high. Granted, the prices have dropped since the first of the year spike, but still much higher than this time last year. Someone has to pay the cost of rebuilding those manufacturing plants, you know. :D

With profit margins like this, the hard drive manufacturers are going to be loathe to cut prices. After years of barely making profits, the Thailand floods are the best excuse ever to drive record income for a few quarters
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In a way I can't blame them...

On the other hand I liked cheap storage. lol
 
Glad I don't have any immediate storage needs. Manufacturers that are gouging because of this can go fuck themselves.

(And yes, at this point it is gouging while using the typhoon as an excuse still)
 
SSD's are getting cheaper, and I have no need for a good hard drive anymore, its just my storage. And even my dying HDD is still doing fine with just storing random crap :D
 
SSD are getting cheaper.... sure that is why as well, higher production, it is like going from DDR 2 to 3, DDR2 is cheap when in mass, DDR3 is expensive, then it switches..

SSD are getting cheaper and cheaper.
 
MrGuvernment said:
SSD are getting cheaper.... sure that is why as well, higher production, it is like going from DDR 2 to 3, DDR2 is cheap when in mass, DDR3 is expensive, then it switches..

SSD are getting cheaper and cheaper.
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Cheaper yet still nowhere near HDDs in $/gb.
 
I'm sure what they'll realize is their supply will get full and they'll need to drop prices to bring it back into market equilibrium (output matching demand). They may gouge for a little bit, but I doubt they'll be able to maintain unless they all collude to fix prices.
 
Spidey329 said:
I'm sure what they'll realize is their supply will get full and they'll need to drop prices to bring it back into market equilibrium (output matching demand). They may gouge for a little bit, but I doubt they'll be able to maintain unless they all collude to fix prices.
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Sure they could. Retail sales are minicule compared to OEM for prebuilts.
 
MrGuvernment said:
SSD are getting cheaper.... sure that is why as well, higher production, it is like going from DDR 2 to 3, DDR2 is cheap when in mass, DDR3 is expensive, then it switches..

SSD are getting cheaper and cheaper.
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SSDs are still nowhere near HDDs when it comes to $/GB or size/GB. 3TB SSD in a 3.5" formfactor? LOL.
 
It's no surprise that prices are staying high. Labor and materials costs have risen in the past year and why not keep turning in a profit if possible? While I like SSD technology for being insensitive to shock, the progressively smaller memory cells combined with MLC make the ~3k write lifespan a little worriesome. Price, as mentioned already, is still far above the cost for similar amounts of storage on conventional disks and there's obviously very little to no change in battery consumption.
 
It's to be expected. The cost per unit has gone up because the companies have to eat profits and borrow money in order to replace the manufacturing equipment and pay worker's salaries. That money has to come from somewhere.

Eventually the supply will catch back up with demand and the prices will lower. As long as there is continued demand, the manufacturers will continue to increase supply. They can't afford to not meet supply needs, and eventually the larger OEM customer's won't tolerate the higher prices if supply is being met sufficiently. If their price demands aren't met, they will seek supply elsewhere from the competing HDD manufacturer or the SSD manufacturer's.
 
Oh they are taking the gas price model, ANY REASON to jack up prices and then keep them high.
 
You guys think prices are "high" right now? They're not rock bottom like they were 2 years ago, but they are still REALLY good in the grand scheme of things.

And SSD's are getting to the reasonable size for price.

Processors are cheap.

Memory is cheap.

Monitors are cheap.

You guys are getting alot of hardware for what your paying. I'm amazed at the kind of specs you can get versus what you actually need. The overwhelming percentage of the population does need anywhere close to the hardware that is considered normal right now. 10 years ago, 15 years ago, normal people would bump into the limits of their machines.
 
I've always known that the floods would be a good excuse to get prices back up. They were silly cheap before. Problem is, we've been spoiled.
 
That's fine, I'll just keep doing what I've been doing, buying SSDs on the cheap instead of overpaying for HDDs.

It actually "costs" the overall industry twice over, when my families HDDs die they get an SSD replacement and an overall speed boost so they no longer crave that shiny new PC :rofl:
 
westrock2000 said:
You guys think prices are "high" right now? They're not rock bottom like they were 2 years ago, but they are still REALLY good in the grand scheme of things.
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The issue is that we know prices could be lower and the companies are reaping record profits, still using the tsunami excuse. It's not like prices are absurd but it's the principle of the matter.
 
The EU forced WD to divest some of its holdings to Toshiba as part of the Hitachi acquistion so there may stil be a third player on the horizon. Not holding my breath though. For one the Travelstar drives will sorely be missed. Can only hope the quality doesn't drop off as with the recent Seagate mergers.
 
In a way, I feel sorry for them. This might be the last big hurrah for the HDD industry. I'm not saying that HDDs are going away but their ubiquity in every computing device is at an end. Desktops have been overtaken in sales by laptops and tablets have overtaken laptops. And what form of storage is ideal for laptops and tablets? SSDs and flash memory. It doesn't matter how many drives are purchased for enterprise storage, once you loose the volume sales that go with consumer products the industry will be a shadow of what it once was.
 
BladeVenom said:
I'm just glad I got a 2 TB hard drive last year when they were $79.
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Last 2TB I picked up was only $69 just a few months before the floods :)

I'd like to add another 2TB to my HTPC, but not at the current prices. I'll make due with what I have until the prices come down.

Same as the office. I've pulled back in buying any new drives, making due with what we alread have. Lucky I had just finished a few server upgrades before the flood, and had plenty plenty of extra storage.
 
Safety said:
In a way, I feel sorry for them. This might be the last big hurrah for the HDD industry. I'm not saying that HDDs are going away but their ubiquity in every computing device is at an end. Desktops have been overtaken in sales by laptops and tablets have overtaken laptops. And what form of storage is ideal for laptops and tablets? SSDs and flash memory. It doesn't matter how many drives are purchased for enterprise storage, once you loose the volume sales that go with consumer products the industry will be a shadow of what it once was.
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I wouldn't worry too much about the HDD industry, flash still has a long way to go. $100 for a 128GB flash vs 2TB that WERE selling for less a year ago. That's still way too much of a price difference.

As for Laptops, if I could get a 512GB SSD for $100, then I might be able to start buying them for the office, but I don't see that happening in the next couple years. By that time I'll probably need to be buying 1TB drives for the Laptops.

I also can't see most companies using SSD's in servers. I've been buying 2TB drives for our main storeage servers, so I don't see replacing them with SSD any time soon.
 
"With profit margins like this, the hard drive manufacturers are going to be loathe to cut prices. After years of barely making profits, the Thailand floods are the best excuse ever to drive record income for a few quarters." ~ Joel Hruska
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After the floods and the "crisis" ensued the HDD market prices were raised to compensate for the damages and lack of production to meet the demands of the consumer.

HDDPWChart.png

The fact that Seagate didn't suffer any damage from the floods they then made a killing during the "crisis" as they raised prices increasing profit over 300% and increased its HDD shipments by about 2% compared to the previous year.

Though Western Digital's plants were severely affected, Seagate was not directly impaired at all.

In the end, it only had to prepare for lower component supply on the part of Nidec, the primary maker of HDD motors.

Nidec managed to restore operations quite swiftly, though, which put Seagate in a much more favorable position than WD. ~ Seagate Agrees That HDD Shortage Will Last Through All of 2012
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Why is a company that lacks excuses jumping on the "crisis" bandwagon? Seagate literally dodged a wave sized bullet and yet they continue to act like they were just as much a victim as other companies, other company's like Western Digital. Western Digital was hit so bad that it was predicted that they wouldn't fully recover until sometime in July of 2012.

It turns out the recovery was faster than thought possible.

Global volumes of HDDs are already back at almost 80% of the pre-flood capacity, so companies and stores shouldn't really be able to use shortages as an excuse for this ridiculous price inflation anymore. ~ HDD Prices Go Up 30-40% Again, Despite Supply Recovery - February 24th, 2012

Sure, there are some facilities to repair after the Thai floods, but WD and Hitachi Global Storage Technologies, Like Seagate, have insurance for that. Throughout this whole mess, low supply has been the only reason HDDs being overpriced. Alas, even with this problem out of the way, the issue persists. ~ HDDs Will Not Get as Cheap as They Are Supposed to Be - April 28th, 2012
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Since then report, after report, after report has come out regarding the "crisis".

Seagate jumped at the opportunity and snatched Samsung’s hard drive division for almost 2 billion dollars, back in April 2011.

Now Seagate proudly announces it has decided to spend 2.5 billion dollars to repurchase a considerable amount of its outstanding ordinary shares. Spending 2.5 billion dollars less than a year after buying Samsung’s HDD division for another 2 billion doesn’t really seem like a company “suffering” from a “crisis.” April 2012.

Western Digital, too, has just announced its fiscal third quarter financial results. Despite recently acquiring HGST (that’s Hitachi’s HDD division) in March last year and also “suffering” from a “difficult crisis,” they’ve made a net income of 146 million dollars, or 62 cents per share. April 2012.

After spending 4.3 billion dollars for Hitachi's HDD division last March, and right after paying 700 million worth of dividends this spring and buying Toshiba's Thailand HDD plant, Western Digital's Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase of 1.9 billion dollars. May 2012.
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If you were to ask somebody how fast it would be possible to take out multiple competitors so you could dominate the market and they told you as little as one year, that's very hard to believe and yet...

DeathPrincess said:
With only 2 major players left in the HDD industry, can sense some price fixing on the horizon. :(
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We are loooooong past the horizon Princess.
 
nutzo said:
I wouldn't worry too much about the HDD industry, flash still has a long way to go. $100 for a 128GB flash vs 2TB that WERE selling for less a year ago. That's still way too much of a price difference.

As for Laptops, if I could get a 512GB SSD for $100, then I might be able to start buying them for the office, but I don't see that happening in the next couple years. By that time I'll probably need to be buying 1TB drives for the Laptops.
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Does your office do some kind of multimedia related work? I can't see how 128GB wouldn't be enough for the majority of business related computers. I have a 60GB SSD in my laptop and its plenty for doing work related tasks. My main computer has a 160GB SSD and I have several games loaded, plus various programs.

Now we do have a server for media objects, but in a work enviornment and even for many eople at home, 100-200GB seems to be a very useable amount of space in reality.
 
It wouldn't be so bad if they made drives that worked properly. Go on Newegg and look at 2/3TB drives and how bad their reliability is. All of the manufacturers are selling defective drives.
 
This is simply divine intervention, driving the costs down on SSDs. Since the floods I know I have chosen solid state over mechanical for projects since I didnt need a large amount of storage and SSDs were actually a little cheaper. Perhaps others did the same and thats why prices are coming down on both
 
heatlesssun said:
Capitalism, love everything about it or you're a communist!
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Ironically, without competition, capitalism may as well be communism.

With only two major manufacturers, left, they are in no rush to undercut each other.
 
jpm100 said:
Ironically, without competition, capitalism may as well be communism.

With only two major manufacturers, left, they are in no rush to undercut each other.
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Careful now, this is a Microsoft Fanboi website.
 
I feel like a champ acquiring my 3TB Seagate USB 3.0 external on Black Friday for $86 shipped.

This drive rocks and has been great to me so far.
 
Merc1138 said:
SSDs are still nowhere near HDDs when it comes to $/GB or size/GB. 3TB SSD in a 3.5" formfactor? LOL.
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Any idea on the cost to fill 3TB with legally aquired data? Sure, there are data mining places, but I suspect that between managing the data and writing low-latency routines they will end up in the SSD camp.

Spinning hard drives are likely the sign of a pirate or a hoarder. Probably both. Please don't tell the HSA. Or maybe just buy a redbox for cover.
 
JimmayLong said:
sounds like price fixing to me
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More like monopoly (or is it still dualopoly) pricing. No need to bother setting up a meeting, just fix the price to the monopoly point and let the profits roll in.

You should have seen the tech business articles before the first indictment on DRAM price fixing. They were whining about the "immature market" and "dangerous price wars". Current capitalism *is* price-fixing (or at least refusal to compete on price). The pre-flood market is the exception. The name of the game in stock picking is to find someone who doesn't have to compete with anyone.
 
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