The Polestar 2 Will Come With Google Integration

travisty said:
Gas cars are going away for three reasons
1. They are dirty and contribute to greenhouse gas / glabal warming - yes it is man made
2. EVs are an exponential technology. The cost to manufacture drops at the rate of blthe battery's cost.
3. Safety features can be rolled back when humans are no longer driving as accidents will he non-existent decreasing the cost of manufacturing
4. The price of electricity is dropping exponentially because solar and batteries are both exponential technologies



Click to expand...


There is a large gap between "Fossil fuel vehicles are going away" and "Humans will not drive themselves anymore" the two concepts are NOT synonymous. People will take a lot of convincing in this country anyway, to give up the autonomy driving gives them. circumstances dictate that if you live in the inner city public transport (plus AV's) make more sense, but a huge portion of drivers are not restricted in that manner, as people already make extensive use of public transit in inner cities.

Certainly at some point in the future fossil fuel IC engines will fade away, but 5 years? certainly not. 10 years? extremely unlikely. perhaps in 20 years most vehicles on the road around major cities will be EV's, and a certain percentage in the rest of the country will be getting there. the problem? your "exponential technology" doesn't exist yet. the infrastructure doesn't exist yet. Batteries frankly, still suck for vehicles, some of the batteries in the research pipeline are promising, but when I can refuel my IC engine in less than 5 minutes, and it takes hours to do so for an EV even with a fast charger, that's just not viable for people that drive a lot.

I don't even understand wtf you are talking about when your mention cars will be cheaper when they can roll back safety features. in what reality do you see that happening? one where lawyers don't exist?

The price of electricity is certainly not dropping because of better battery tech, who's rectum are you pulling these ideas from? 80% of the energy produced in the world still is generated by fossil fuels, the rest mostly Hydro and nuclear, with a small percentage being Solar and wind. Most of the world can't EVER use solar or wind to replace fossil fuels, due to factors such as lack of sunlight and insufficient wind, and/or not enough land to stick massive windfarms on.
 
motomonkey said:
The price of electricity is certainly not dropping because of better battery tech, who's rectum are you pulling these ideas from? 80% of the energy produced in the world still is generated by fossil fuels, the rest mostly Hydro and nuclear, with a small percentage being Solar and wind. Most of the world can't EVER use solar or wind to replace fossil fuels, due to factors such as lack of sunlight and insufficient wind, and/or not enough land to stick massive windfarms on.
Click to expand...

I can tell you're still ignorant and did not take the time to educate yourself. Exponential decrease in solora costs is the main driver for cheaper electricity and batteries decreasing in price exponentially will assist in the process

There is a large gap between "Fossil fuel vehicles are going away" and "Humans will not drive themselves anymore" the two concepts are NOT synonymous. People will take a lot of convincing in this country anyway, to give up the autonomy driving gives them. circumstances dictate that if you live in the inner city public transport (plus AV's) make more sense, but a huge portion of drivers are not restricted in that manner, as people already make extensive use of public transit in inner cities.
Click to expand...

AI and EVs go together as they're both exponential technologies. With pay-per-mile/ride the distance and needs required for the trip will dictate the vehicle that is assigned to you. Need to go to the grocery store a few miles away? A small compact can be sent. Need to go cross-country? A hydrogen or gas powered vehicle can be made available but let's be honest, get on the hyperloop (though this is probably closer to 20 years down the road)

So fun watching someone's condescending attitude about what he thinks reality is, get shot all to hell.
Click to expand...

Then please do with facts and not uninformed posts saying you dont think it'll happen

As Bill Gates said, "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."

 
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travisty said:
Gas cars are going away for three reasons
1. They are dirty and contribute to greenhouse gas / glabal warming - yes it is man made
2. EVs are an exponential technology. The cost to manufacture drops at the rate of blthe battery's cost.
3. Safety features can be rolled back when humans are no longer driving as accidents will he non-existent decreasing the cost of manufacturing
4. The price of electricity is dropping exponentially because solar and batteries are both exponential technologies
Click to expand...

We're talking self driving cars. Don't deflect from this statement:

travisty said:
Don't blame me if your imagination is not up to the task. Going to the store? Summon a car 5-10 minutes ahead of time. People will be able to have manually driven cars, it just won't be affordable for most.
Click to expand...

That has nothing to do with EV vs ICE. You're stating that people will not be able to afford to drive a manually driven car, go ahead and explain how that happens in 20 years.
 
ND40oz said:
We're talking self driving cars. Don't deflect from this statement:



That has nothing to do with EV vs ICE. You're stating that people will not be able to afford to drive a manually driven car, go ahead and explain how that happens in 20 years.
Click to expand...

No deflection, as i said in my previous post EVs and AI go hand in hand. I have in my other posts in this thread and these forums. These videos will help you understand why





Summation?
Save money (at the individual level with pay-per-mile/ride)
Save lives (humans are terrible drivers comparatively speaking)
No more parking lots (think of what can be done with all that space)
 
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travisty said:
I have in my other posts in this thread. These videos will help you understand why

Summation?
Save money (at the individual level with pay-per-mile/ride)
Save lives (humans are terrible drivers comparatively speaking)
No more parking lots (think of what can be done with all that space)
Click to expand...

No, this doesn't explain it at all. Show the timeline that manufacturers will have stopped producing vehicles that are not driverless and the subsequent timeline of the phase out of all of the existing non-self driving vehicles. If you're going to make wild, baseless claims, then you need to explain them, not link videos that do not back up your claims.
 
ND40oz said:
No, this doesn't explain it at all. Show the timeline that manufacturers will have stopped producing vehicles that are not driverless and the subsequent timeline of the phase out of all of the existing non-self driving vehicles. If you're going to make wild, baseless claims, then you need to explain them, not link videos that do not back up your claims.
Click to expand...

Evidence is everywhere

Uber, Lyft, Tesla, and Waymo are all racing to develop autonomous driving for pay-per-ride/mile services.
Ford is aiming at 2021 for autonomous vehicles - https://corporate.ford.com/innovation/autonomous-2021.html
GM (via Cruise) and Honda putting huge money into it - https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/03/business/honda-gm-cruise-autonomous.html
GM plans full level 5 vehicle with no steering wheel this year (2019) - https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/12/16880978/gm-autonomous-car-2019-detroit-auto-show-2018
Nissan plans level 5 (full autonomous driving) by 2022 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...troduce-fully-autonomous-driving-cars-in-2022
Volswagon says they're 2 years behind Waymo - https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/vw-lagging-waymo-self-driving-car-development/
BMW on autonomous driving - https://www.bmw.com/en/automotive-life/autonomous-driving.html & https://www.autonews.com/article/20...g-second-generation-autonomous-driving-system (level 5 ~2024)

The transition to self driving cars is not hard. It's all software with some hardware attached. No huge modifications need to be made to assembly lines.

Just google all this. It's not hard: <car company> autonomous car

Hint: GM's model with no steering wheel / pedals is for commercial availability only. IE Uber/Lyft/Waymo/other for pay-per-mile/ride services.


This isn't even mentioning (freight) trucks
https://www.atbs.com/knowledge-hub/self-driving-trucks-are-truck-drivers-out-of-a-jo
Daimler (2025 goal) - https://www.daimler.com/innovation/autonomous-driving/freightliner-inspiration-truck.html
Waymo - https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/9/17100518/waymo-self-driving-truck-google-atlanta
Tesla (probably around 2020 for the truck to be available) - https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/when-tesla-semi-truck-will-be-available-14709990

Companies will jump at these. No extra cost of human employee drivers like wages, healthcare, etc
 
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travisty said:
Evidence is everywhere
Click to expand...

You are claiming that there will be next to no vehicles with drivers anymore in the near future. How does that transition happen, what's the timeline to get all of these vehicles with drivers off the road? I own a level 2 autonomous vehicle and I don't see the phase out period going nearly as quickly as you're claiming it will. It's great that they'll have level 4 and 5 out in the next few years and I'll own one when they're available, but that doesn't mean the millions of vehicles still on the roads at that time just stop being driven. When are they going to be too expensive to keep on the road and everyone will just be ordering a ride on their phone, which is what you're claiming?
 
motomonkey said:
There is a large gap between "Fossil fuel vehicles are going away" and "Humans will not drive themselves anymore" the two concepts are NOT synonymous. People will take a lot of convincing in this country anyway, to give up the autonomy driving gives them. circumstances dictate that if you live in the inner city public transport (plus AV's) make more sense, but a huge portion of drivers are not restricted in that manner, as people already make extensive use of public transit in inner cities.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I think people underestimate the resistance among those who are used to being able to drive themselves to this. I think it will phase in with younger people who aren't used to this freedom. To them it will seem like a good trade-off. This means several decades of phase-in though.

motomonkey said:
Certainly at some point in the future fossil fuel IC engines will fade away, but 5 years? certainly not. 10 years? extremely unlikely. perhaps in 20 years most vehicles on the road around major cities will be EV's, and a certain percentage in the rest of the country will be getting there. the problem? your "exponential technology" doesn't exist yet. the infrastructure doesn't exist yet. Batteries frankly, still suck for vehicles, some of the batteries in the research pipeline are promising, but when I can refuel my IC engine in less than 5 minutes, and it takes hours to do so for an EV even with a fast charger, that's just not viable for people that drive a lot.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Even if the battery tech were to materialize overnight, our electric grid couldn't handle the load, and major infrastructure improvements like this take decades to accomplish.


I don't quite agree with the rest of your post. I think a 100% renewable future is only a matter of time. Again, I think that is quite a lot of time. Several decades. But eventuellt we will get there.
 
ND40oz said:
You are claiming that there will be next to no vehicles with drivers anymore in the near future. How does that transition happen, what's the timeline to get all of these vehicles with drivers off the road? I own a level 2 autonomous vehicle and I don't see the phase out period going nearly as quickly as you're claiming it will. It's great that they'll have level 4 and 5 out in the next few years and I'll own one when they're available, but that doesn't mean the millions of vehicles still on the roads at that time just stop being driven. When are they going to be too expensive to keep on the road and everyone will just be ordering a ride on their phone, which is what you're claiming?
Click to expand...

The videos answer your question.

Cost is the main driver. Why would someone own an item that costs $30,000 then thousands on insurance and later maintenance yet goes unused more than 90% of the time.
Why would anyone own a vehicle when it's much cheaper to pay per use from a 3rd party?
(~10 years out) Why would insurance insure a human to driver when they're not safe drivers?

No laws required. Simple finance will lead the way.

Though legislatures looking at the millions of deaths per year from human driven vehicles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate). The billions of dollars lost due to medical and lost wages from those killed and injured by human driven vehicles. It would not be surprising to see a ban on human driven cars in 10-15 years time.

Just to help visualize how quickly new technologies are adopted: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-speed-technological-adoption/

Basically, when it becomes available it is consumed (bought). 10 years for nearly 70% penetration (via waymo/uber/lyft/etc and the non-ownership of vehicles) would not be surprising at all. There will be stragglers but after the transformation happens, the desire to get all human-driven vehicles off the road will be there as they'll be the source of the vast majority of the uncommon accident.
 
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travisty said:
The videos answer your question.

Cost is the main driver. Why would someone own an item that costs $30,000 then thousands on insurance and later maintenance yet goes unused more than 90% of the time.
Why would anyone own a vehicle when it's much cheaper to pay per use from a 3rd party?
(~10 years out) Why would insurance insure a human to driver when they're not safe drivers?
Click to expand...

A vehicle someone owns is cheaper to operate than paying for multiple daily Uber rides unless you're not using the vehicle on a regular basis. If you're a city dweller that already doesn't own a vehicle, you've already adopted this lifestyle.

travisty said:
No laws required. Simple finance will lead the way.

Though legislatures looking at the millions of deaths per year from human driven vehicles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate). The billions of dollars lost due to medical and lost wages from those killed and injured by human driven vehicles. It would not be surprising to see a ban on human driven cars in 10-15 years time.

Just to help visualize how quickly new technologies are adopted: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-speed-technological-adoption/

Basically, when it becomes available it is consumed (bought). 10 years for nearly 70% penetration would not be surprising at all. There will be stragglers but after the transformation happens, the desire to get all human-driven vehicles off the road will be there as they'll be the source of the vast majority of the uncommon accident.
Click to expand...

With the average age of the vehicles currently in use in the US approaching 12 years, there's no way we'll have 70% penetration in 10 years, especially since there aren't any level 5 vehicles in production yet. How are you going to out right ban human driving in 10-15 years when there are currently no vehicles for sale that aren't human operated? We're still at least 2 years away from being able to purchase one and 8 years after that, they'll have replaced 70% of the vehicles on the road? We're talking about the 2nd most expensive thing a normal buyer purchases behind their home, you can't compare that to smart phone or color tv penetration.
 
ND40oz said:
A vehicle someone owns is cheaper to operate than paying for multiple daily Uber rides unless you're not using the vehicle on a regular basis. If you're a city dweller that already doesn't own a vehicle, you've already adopted this lifestyle.
Click to expand...

Uber and Lyft are expensive due to the human driver's wage. Cut that out and you're looking at a few cents per mile for pay-per-mile services.

With the average age of the vehicles currently in use in the US approaching 12 years, there's no way we'll have 70% penetration in 10 years, especially since there aren't any level 5 vehicles in production yet. How are you going to out right ban human driving in 10-15 years when there are currently no vehicles for sale that aren't human operated? We're still at least 2 years away from being able to purchase one and 8 years after that, they'll have replaced 70% of the vehicles on the road? We're talking about the 2nd most expensive thing a normal buyer purchases behind their home, you can't compare that to smart phone or color tv penetration.
Click to expand...

You're forgetting the transition to not owning a vehicle will already be in full swing in 10 years

Edit: My last post was not clear on the last point, added extra text to clarify the penetration point
 
travisty said:
The videos answer your question.

Cost is the main driver. Why would someone own an item that costs $30,000 then thousands on insurance and later maintenance yet goes unused more than 90% of the time.
Why would anyone own a vehicle when it's much cheaper to pay per use from a 3rd party?
(~10 years out) Why would insurance insure a human to driver when they're not safe drivers?

No laws required. Simple finance will lead the way.

Though legislatures looking at the millions of deaths per year from human driven vehicles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate). The billions of dollars lost due to medical and lost wages from those killed and injured by human driven vehicles. It would not be surprising to see a ban on human driven cars in 10-15 years time.

Just to help visualize how quickly new technologies are adopted: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-speed-technological-adoption/

Basically, when it becomes available it is consumed (bought). 10 years for nearly 70% penetration (via waymo/uber/lyft/etc and the non-ownership of vehicles) would not be surprising at all. There will be stragglers but after the transformation happens, the desire to get all human-driven vehicles off the road will be there as they'll be the source of the vast majority of the uncommon accident.
Click to expand...


You just described vehicle ownership right now. My vehicles sit idle 90% of the time as it is, and I paid over $30k for it, not sure why you think this is something new.
 
travisty said:
I can tell you're still ignorant and did not take the time to educate yourself. Exponential decrease in solora costs is the main driver for cheaper electricity and batteries decreasing in price exponentially will assist in the process



AI and EVs go together as they're both exponential technologies. With pay-per-mile/ride the distance and needs required for the trip will dictate the vehicle that is assigned to you. Need to go to the grocery store a few miles away? A small compact can be sent. Need to go cross-country? A hydrogen or gas powered vehicle can be made available but let's be honest, get on the hyperloop (though this is probably closer to 20 years down the road)



Then please do with facts and not uninformed posts saying you dont think it'll happen

As Bill Gates said, "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction."

Click to expand...


you've linked 2 hours worth of videos, I'm sorry, I skimmed them, but I don't have time to sit through a Church service, which is what the few minutes I spent watching them felt like.

You keep using the phrase "Exponential technology" like it's some sort of magic or holy words. Unless the great sky daddy descends from the clouds and explodes all the IC vehicles, and puts some stone tablets on the steps of the capital that say "thoult shall build infrastructure because it is pleasing in the eyes of the lord" this shit isn't happening as fast as you seem to think.

And you still seem to be ignoring the huge areas outside the metropolitan areas, even if you have 100% penetration of EV/AV tech in the cities. what are you doing for the areas that don't even have broadband yet? or is that something "exponential technologies" will magically fix also?
 
motomonkey said:
You just described vehicle ownership right now. My vehicles sit idle 90% of the time as it is, and I paid over $30k for it, not sure why you think this is something new.
Click to expand...

Yes that is now. Why would someone pay $30,000 + insurance + maintenance for something they use less than 10% of the time?


motomonkey said:
you've linked 2 hours worth of videos, I'm sorry, I skimmed them, but I don't have time to sit through a Church service, which is what the few minutes I spent watching them felt like.

You keep using the phrase "Exponential technology" like it's some sort of magic or holy words. Unless the great sky daddy descends from the clouds and explodes all the IC vehicles, and puts some stone tablets on the steps of the capital that say "thoult shall build infrastructure because it is pleasing in the eyes of the lord" this shit isn't happening as fast as you seem to think.

And you still seem to be ignoring the huge areas outside the metropolitan areas, even if you have 100% penetration of EV/AV tech in the cities. what are you doing for the areas that don't even have broadband yet? or is that something "exponential technologies" will magically fix also?
Click to expand...

"Exponential Technology" is a way to describe anything that grows / becomes cheaper at an exponential rate. Nothing holy about it.

As Albert Einstein said, “The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest."

Humans are linear beings. We think in a linear fashion and imaging that way too. It's done us well. Processors are a prime example of an exponential technology. The cost per unit of computation has grown at a hyper-exponential rate (meaning it's curved upward on a logarithmic graph for visual aid). What else in human history has grown by a multitude of billions in a few decades?

Everything from energy production, manufacturing (via 3d printing), farming, medical advancements, transpiration to name a few areas are all going to be rapidly evolving over the next decade as they become more digitized assets. The pace of advancement is going to be astounding.


As for infrastructure, it's not hard to support EVs. The infrastructure is already laid out (hint: electrical lines). Passed that it's simply installing Level 2 and 3 charging stations which most cities and even rural ones are already well on their way.

https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point
https://www.tesla.com/supercharger?redirect=no

As for upgrading the electric grid, it's actually not needed as much as many think. Most charging is done at night when demand is low. If it is needed, solar is already on par or cheaper than natural gas (check out the first video i linked on this thread). Solar is still getting cheaper at an exponential rate. The adoption of solar and other green energy is fast approaching with many cities aiming for 2040 (where i live it's 2030). Rural is even easier as demand is lower and space is available.
 
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travisty said:
Yes that is now. Why would someone pay $30,000 + insurance + maintenance for something they use less than 10% of the time?
Click to expand...

To drive? For independence? For convenience? I will be damned if I will call some robo cab and have to wait for it, when I can drive myself there, finish my task and be home before the cab even gets to my house.

I happen to enjoy driving, the entire premise of the AV crusade is that it will free us from the terrible burden of driving. Sorry, but for a lot of Americans, that just isn’t the case.
 
motomonkey said:
To drive? For independence? For convenience? I will be damned if I will call some robo cab and have to wait for it, when I can drive myself there, finish my task and be home before the cab even gets to my house.

I happen to enjoy driving, the entire premise of the AV crusade is that it will free us from the terrible burden of driving. Sorry, but for a lot of Americans, that just isn’t the case.
Click to expand...

No, most Americans dont 'love' driving - https://news.gallup.com/poll/236813/adults-drive-frequently-fewer-enjoy-lot.aspx

33% "love" driving. If even half of those that moderately like driving give it up that's still 50%
The question should also be: "If stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic do you enjoy driving"? Followed by, "If stuck in traffic would you prefer to be playing on the computer/xbox/playstation/phone while you're driven to work?"

Then it become a question of, if 50% of people stop owning cars and depend on autonomous driving what happens?

  • Vehicle selection diminishes quickly since most people only buy a car once a decade, the market is autonomous self driven vehicles sold to corporations (waymo/uber/lyft)
  • The number of people insured goes down - prices on those still insured increase
  • Dealerships close down due to drastically cut number of customers.
  • Maintenance shops close due to decreased demand (Waymo/Lyft/Uber will have centralized maintenance shops for their fleets)

Those who choose to drive their own cars will need to understand it'll cost them more and more to do so. While those who have embraced the future will be saving. I look forward to converting my garage into a greenhouse :)
 
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travisty said:
The transition to self driving cars is not hard. It's all software with some hardware attached. No huge modifications need to be made to assembly lines.
Click to expand...

To do it at the price point and profit margin needed there are lots of changes that will need to be made. The current layout of a automobile is built around the driver. There is so much unnecessary in that design if it is going to be fully autonomous that the first to eliminate it and simplify the design is going to be miles ahead financially.
 
travisty said:
Don't blame me if your imagination is not up to the task. Going to the store? Summon a car 5-10 minutes ahead of time. People will be able to have manually driven cars, it just won't be affordable for most.
Click to expand...

First, I don't know how the autonomous vehicle is going to travel 20-40 miles across roads that are barely two lanes wide with deer and potholes along the way and get to my house in 5-10 minutes, that is just impossible.

travisty said:
No, most Americans dont 'love' driving - https://news.gallup.com/poll/236813/adults-drive-frequently-fewer-enjoy-lot.aspx

33% "love" driving. If even half of those that moderately like driving give it up that's still 50%
The question should also be: "If stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic do you enjoy driving"? Followed by, "If stuck in traffic would you prefer to be playing on the computer/xbox/playstation/phone while you're driven to work?"

Then it become a question of, if 50% of people stop owning cars and depend on autonomous driving what happens?

  • Vehicle selection diminishes quickly since most people only buy a car once a decade, the market is autonomous self driven vehicles sold to corporations (waymo/uber/lyft)
  • The number of people insured goes down - prices on those still insured increase
  • Dealerships close down due to drastically cut number of customers.
  • Maintenance shops close due to decreased demand (Waymo/Lyft/Uber will have centralized maintenance shops for their fleets)

Those who choose to drive their own cars will need to understand it'll cost them more and more to do so. While those who have embraced the future will be saving. I look forward to converting my garage into a greenhouse :)
Click to expand...

I haven't been stuck in bumper to bumper traffic for more than 10 minutes for most of my life, thankfully I don't live in a large city and the largest cause of a traffic jam around here is when some cows get out of their field and stand in the road.

Overall what you are saying is that people in rural areas are going to be downgraded to even lower than second class citizens because all the city dwellers will setting the rules for everyone. You even mentioned that if someone needs to take a long trip by then the will just jump on the hyperloop, I have to drive two hours just to get to the nearest airport, I doubt I will be able to jump on a hyperloop near me in 60 years.

As others have said, while EV will become more prevalent a limiting factor is going to be infrastructure. Solar might be getting cheaper, but once subsidies fall off it will not be that much cheaper, maybe not at all. Wind is similar because if it stops blowing, it won't generate. Hydro would be better but people won't let that expands for fear it will kill some endangered salamander. Upgraded power transmission lines will need to be built to feed all the EVs but people fight every time a new power line is built saying it needs to be in someone else's backyard, so that will slow the transition down even more.

Exponential growth sounds good in speeches and on paper, but once you factor in all the necessary social and political problems it will be slowed to barely above a linear growth. Just look at the other post here about people sabotaging Super Charger stations. It isn't logical but people will fight change. I think one reason people are sabotaging these stations is because they don't like the fact that they have to pay for gas while Tesla owners get free fuel. Imagine the backlash when people feel cheated because they choose to drive themselves. What if they start laying traps for the autonomous vehicles? Simple as putting a barrier in the road, a normal driver can get out of the vehicle and move it, the autonomous vehicle has to wait until some person can be summoned out to move it for them. It will not be as fast of a sell as you imagine, and the estimate using $30k costs for a new vehicle is not accurate since a majority of people pay far less since they purchase used vehicles. Even where I work we started purchasing off lease vehicles to save money, we don't pay anywhere near new prices.

You have to sell people on the idea, not force them by pricing them out. Trying to force them will only cause more backlash and slow the progress even more. Funny how it was thought that increasing the price of fuel would force people to drive fuel efficient vehicles but now large SUV are the biggest sellers. The "average" people fought back and changed policy that made fuel more expensive. I will never say it will never happen, but the timeline will be more like 20-30 years. We still have landline phones, and OTA TV, which many thought would be gone for good by now, but even OTA TV is making a comeback as people cut the cord. People are also starting to move away from Facebook and I know some that are moving away from smartphones for a less connected lifestyle. Things change, but they also stay the same more than we like to believe.
 
jedijeb13 said:
Overall what you are saying is that people in rural areas are going to be downgraded to even lower than second class citizens because all the city dwellers will setting the rules for everyone. You even mentioned that if someone needs to take a long trip by then the will just jump on the hyperloop, I have to drive two hours just to get to the nearest airport, I doubt I will be able to jump on a hyperloop near me in 60 years.
Click to expand...

Well, As I have stated repeatedly, I think he is wrong on many of his assumptions, but you have to realize this:

Urbanization rates in the U.S. are getting pretty close to 85%. That mean only 15% of the population lives in rural areas. Products and services are generally designed for and marketed toward larger customer groups, as there is a better chance of getting volume sales, and thus spreading out development costs over more units.

The rural lifestyle is rapidly becoming a footnote in the U.S.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
Well, As I have stated repeatedly, I think he is wrong on many of his assumptions, but you have to realize this:

Urbanization rates in the U.S. are getting pretty close to 85%. That mean only 15% of the population lives in rural areas. Products and services are generally designed for and marketed toward larger customer groups, as there is a better chance of getting volume sales, and thus spreading out development costs over more units.

The rural lifestyle is rapidly becoming a footnote in the U.S.
Click to expand...

Doesn't sound like many people live in outside Urban areas, does it? 15% is still almost 50 million people. it's also mostly in "Flyover land", between the coasts. making the disparity even more apparent.

I can recall flying over Alaska at night when in the military years ago, between Anchorage and Fairbanks. Not a single light on the ground for over 300 miles..... guess that's what it's going to look like between the coasts when Travisty's world comes to be, lol.
 
travisty said:
As soon as an exponential technology reaches the point of Disruption (coming 2-3 years for autonomous driving) and Dematerialization will cause people to realize paying thousands for insurance, maintenance, and loans is just not smart for something that sits unused for 95% of the day (on average).
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You're still gonna pay for insurance and maintenance even if you don't own the car. Those magically won't go away. You may not see them broken out in your final bill but that's psychological only.
 
Jagger100 said:
You're still gonna pay for insurance and maintenance even if you don't own the car. Those magically won't go away. You may not see them broken out in your final bill but that's psychological only.
Click to expand...

Insurance will be tied into the companies (Uber/Lyft/Waymo) that own the vehicles for pay-per-ride/mile. In all, at the individual level, these services will be far less than actually owning a car.
 
N4CR said:
'18 550d m wagon I went in recently swerved pretty badly in the lane whilst engaging auto mode in light snow... Not confidence inspiring on the autobahn at speed. I'll wait a few more years until trusting autonomous cars. They are doing well but need a lot of training.
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You were lucky. This time. Maybe next time it will be review the black box time. Sounds harsh but its the truth. If I were in your place I would not play the dice again.
 
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