VW Says Combustion Cars Will Fade Away after 2026

1_rick said:
Have you thought about the logistics required to service tens of thousands of cars? Are you going to have people stop off at a charging station and wait for an hour (I'm going to assume for this comment that every charger is a supercharger and it only takes 1 hour to fully charge your car, and ignore what upgrades that will require to the grid) on the way home for work, or drop the car off somewhere, and take a bus to the office, only to take another bus to get it when it's charged? (Surely you're not thinking of people leaving their cars all day for reasons that should be obvious.)

My building--one of ten in my apartment complex, and there's lots more buildings in the area--again has a parking garage with probably 200-300 cars in it. Where do you expect them to charge, if not at home? Let's be generous and assume, as dwellers in a major city, they will only need one hour a week of charge time.
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Now that i can digest as a full thought. Honestly I would imagine battery technology and chargers will get more efficient and quicker. Especially by the dates vw is going by.
 
{NG}Fidel said:
Honestly I would imagine battery technology and chargers will get more efficient and quicker. Especially by the dates vw is going by.
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Oh, I'm sure it WILL get better--but I can't see EVs wholesale replacing ICE until we reach the point where you can fully refuel your car in a few minutes, and I can't see that happening by 2026.

In spite of what I said in this thread I could actually get by with a BEV for 95% of what I do these days. But I still like to travel sometimes--last year I drove from Dallas to upstate South Carolina to view the eclipse and, you know, good luck doing that in an BEV. I think hybrids make more sense than BEV for the foreseeable future, and I'd love to see more work on things like tuning the gas engine to be more of a generator. One of the Japanese makers talked a few years ago about an ICE generator that was a pair of pistons in one horizontal cylinder. Do that, and get rid of the ICE transmission to save weight, complexity, and $$$, and do trials of that in cities.
 
They would need new battery tech as what's currently out there can catch fire! I've heard the fire department cant put out the fires once they start.

Car insurance companies gota love those claims! Prices would be too high to insure.
 
1_rick said:
In spite of what I said in this thread I could actually get by with a BEV for 95% of what I do these days. But I still like to travel sometimes--last year I drove from Dallas to upstate South Carolina to view the eclipse and, you know, good luck doing that in an BEV.
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And I could use a truck for that 5% of the time when I need to haul something, or take a ton of crap to the dumps... however instead of buying one and using that as my vehicle that does 95% of the driving as well, I just went to Uhaul and rented a truck for that rare time when I needed one.
 
1_rick said:
Oh, I'm sure it WILL get better--but I can't see EVs wholesale replacing ICE until we reach the point where you can fully refuel your car in a few minutes, and I can't see that happening by 2026.

In spite of what I said in this thread I could actually get by with a BEV for 95% of what I do these days. But I still like to travel sometimes--last year I drove from Dallas to upstate South Carolina to view the eclipse and, you know, good luck doing that in an BEV. I think hybrids make more sense than BEV for the foreseeable future, and I'd love to see more work on things like tuning the gas engine to be more of a generator. One of the Japanese makers talked a few years ago about an ICE generator that was a pair of pistons in one horizontal cylinder. Do that, and get rid of the ICE transmission to save weight, complexity, and $$$, and do trials of that in cities.
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Oh yeah i agree, and that Toyota hybrid suv they have looks amazing. I think vw hopefully is saying that their production will entirely change not so much that all ice vehicles will be off the streets. I'm sure that would take another 60 years until all remaining vehicles are defunct.
 
Toyota announced similar plans last December. “the early 2020s” Though they didn't predict the any kind of END, just that they are electrifying their line up.
https://electrek.co/2017/12/18/toyota-electric-car-plans/

Really if you think about it, VW is just grandstanding since the beginning of the END started with the success of Tesla. Proof that an sustainable electric car market exists.
 
Clearly VW knows something they're not telling or they're nuts. Given how quickly they folded to the EPA on the supposed diesel testing scam (like they all don't do it to get around insane CA standards) I'm guessing they're nuts and full of bluster. Then again, maybe they've found the secret to Mr. Fusion and all of our cars will be powered by banana peels and egg shells.
 
People will decide what happens in the future with our all mighty dollar unless we get a globalist president like in France and they jack the taxes up on fossil fuels to force the issue.
 
1_rick said:
Back in the 80s and 90s when they were talking about replaceable fuel cells, there was talk of 5-minute changes. Have you seen the size of a battery pack on a modern EV? They're pretty big, and in some cases mounted under the floor, the whole width of the car. I doubt it's an insurmountable obstacle but I'd be surprised if any current production car could be swapped out in a reasonable period of time.

In any event, that would simply create new issues. Now every recharge station has to carry a big pile of batteries, meaning a big increase in square footage, not to mention the facilities to charge a bunch, so it's the same problem as an apartment complex only smaller. Again, probably not ultimately insurmountable, but probably going to be expensive.

And that's before you consider that if they don't standardize the batteries, you could pull in to a place and find out they can't swap yours out. "Sorry, sir, we're fresh out of Chevies, you'll have to plug in and wait."
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And this is exactly what I'm getting at. As of now, imagine a kid paid minimum wage hooking a 600V (or higher!) Charger up to your car presumably with you inside.

I'm all for electric cars, I really want one. I'm just realistic. I think we need better batteries (smaller, lighter, more energy dense) for this to go mainstream.
 
Jtal said:
How much grid expansion will be needed to generate and distribute this energy
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It is going to need a ton of expansion on the transmission end. I'm not familiar with the distribution end to comment.

velusip said:
Expect the price of electricity to skyrocket
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Generally any capital expenses go into the rate base and up our rates, so fun fact....meeting demands of electric cars will make electricity more expensive.
 
For the people saying that 2026 sounds early, you didn't read the article.

"VW plans to launch fully or partly electric versions across its lineup of more than 300 cars, vans, trucks and motorbikes by 2030."
"After 2050, there may still be some gasoline and diesel models in regions where there is insufficient charging infrastructure, according to Jost."
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Infrastructure isn't getting upgraded overnight for apartment dwellers, so 30 years to work on that plus the slow charging times sounds reasonable.
 
sfsuphysics said:
Not sure how power works in Canada but here in the US if we need a larger service you can get the electric company to pull larger wires from the pole. Yes it costs money to do so, needs permits, electrician etc, but it is possible. I mean the house my aunt inherited that was built at the turn of the century (1900s) if you used a hair dryer upstairs in the bathroom the entire floor's electrical tripped (on a fuse), sometimes houses need to be upgraded to today's lifestyle/demand.
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I know I can do it if I have the money. I'm just saying that to meet VW's prediction, everyone that doesn't have an additional 30% power capacity to spare (like myself), would need to upgrade within the next decade. I don't see that happening unless the city does it for free, but I don't think they can upgrade everyone that fast.

My city has over 30% extra capacity in the grid after last years power plant expansion, but I doubt every city does.

https://slate.com/human-interest/20...w-much-energy-would-we-need-to-fuel-them.html
 
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