Trade War with China Will Drive Up GPU Prices Again

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well China gonna have to give up soon.. otherwise their currency will be end up like ruble
 
NotJay said:
well China gonna have to give up soon.. otherwise their currency will be end up like ruble
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Lower yuan means more trade for China. The US isn't Chinas only dancing partner. China has been devaluing their own currency on purpose for years now. It means production doesn't move to India or some other emerging industrializing country. When the yuan climes vs the US dollar China looses. The more the US force the yuan down the more they are simply playing into their hand. I mean think about it... what offsets a 20% duty on your imports, a better exchange rate to begin with.
 
There are no winners in trade wars, only losers. Everyone pays more for shit and sells less shit. Less money coming in due to decreased sales and more money coming out due to increased costs. Jobs are never coming back to the US as no one can afford to buy our products with such a high markup due to the cost of labor difference. Are the world leaders trying to send the global economy into the shitter? Because this is exactly how you do that.

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."
 
nilepez said:
The changes with MX are not huge (though it seems likely that car prices will increase and perhaps some auto parts).
It remains to be seen if Canada joins in, and we could get hurt badly there, since we have a trade surplus and they are the largest consumer of our products.

No idea on China, but my guess is they're willing to play this out and watch prices rise in the U.S. and see how consumers react, which means this will probably go on well into 2019, if not 2020.
Xi Jinping was just reelected, has been consolidating power (arguably he has more than anyone since Mao), so he's not going anywhere. Nobody in the U.S. has that much power.

Maybe you're right. Wall Street certainly seems unfazed, but I don't see China backing down. For now it's "Fuck you Xi." "Fuck me? Oh No Don, fuck you." Thus the tit-for-tat tariffs.
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If China has real pressure, and they don't yet, they will absolutely cave because the alternative is far, far more serious than many could imagine. China is fragile. They have monstrous debt. More debt than the US.
Sure, China owns a lot of US debt in the form of Treasuries and if China dumped them all tomorrow, we'd feel a brief blip before they're snapped up by other countries. Every time they dump US treasuries, they get snapped up. The havoc a massive dump of US treasuries would cause their own currency and exports would hurt them far more and for far longer.
While China does not rely on exports to keep itself afloat to the same degree it once did, a huge number of jobs typically filled by young, unskilled workers would be lost even under a short-term trade war. That equals politcal pressure. The CPC does not want young people unemployed on a large scale because they are the ones who typically stir shit up. China already has a massive number of serious issues at home and they all bubble under the surface. As long as the economy hums along, most are quiet. Disrupt that, and hell will break lose.

In the US, some prices may go up. In China, a government may come down. Those are the potential stakes. Ignore the posturing, China is weak.

As to Canada, no, we can't get badly hurt, we can get stung. They can lose 20% of their GDP though, that's pretty f'n hurt. Not many could recover from that kind of loss.

*note* I'm not pretending to be an economic expert and there are many factors I may not have considered.
 
Laowai said:
If China has real pressure, and they don't yet, they will absolutely cave because the alternative is far, far more serious than many could imagine. China is fragile. They have monstrous debt. More debt than the US.
Sure, China owns a lot of US debt in the form of Treasuries and if China dumped them all tomorrow, we'd feel a brief blip before they're snapped up by other countries. Every time they dump US treasuries, they get snapped up. The havoc a massive dump of US treasuries would cause their own currency and exports would hurt them far more and for far longer.
While China does not rely on exports to keep itself afloat to the same degree it once did, a huge number of jobs typically filled by young, unskilled workers would be lost even under a short-term trade war. That equals politcal pressure. The CPC does not want young people unemployed on a large scale because they are the ones who typically stir shit up. China already has a massive number of serious issues at home and they all bubble under the surface. As long as the economy hums along, most are quiet. Disrupt that, and hell will break lose.

In the US, some prices may go up. In China, a government may come down. Those are the potential stakes. Ignore the posturing, China is weak.

As to Canada, no, we can't get badly hurt, we can get stung. They can lose 20% of their GDP though, that's pretty f'n hurt. Not many could recover from that kind of loss.

*note* I'm not pretending to be an economic expert and there are many factors I may not have considered.
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Here to me what you and many say: China s economic system is fragile, perhaps in peril and dependent of US support approval and ' goodwill'.. I don't think this is false, however I do think the power of this argument is overblown.. US financial system is in a much reduced position, with countries routinely moving away from the dollar, probably due to the sanction abuses we have undertaken ( to us is like a joke know sanction this, sanction that) China has diversified significantly.. so yeah, let's nuke their economic system, fine we will at minimum badly harm ours too, but even worse we will lose access to a lot of goods we currently buy from them.. hubris doesn't build iphones.. meanwhile China can and will move their goods to other countries and create other ties.. thing is they already are, its just a matter of accelerating the process. China has increased ties with Russia, with countries in Africa and countries in Latin America.. its just a matter of speeding things up, and they can defray the damages quite a bit
 
Uvaman2 said:
Here to me what you and many say: China s economic system is fragile, perhaps in peril and dependent of US support approval and ' goodwill'.. I don't think this is false, however I do think the power of this argument is overblown.. US financial system is in a much reduced position, with countries routinely moving away from the dollar, probably due to the sanction abuses we have undertaken ( to us is like a joke know sanction this, sanction that) China has diversified significantly.. so yeah, let's nuke their economic system, fine we will at minimum badly harm ours too, but even worse we will lose access to a lot of goods we currently buy from them.. hubris doesn't build iphones.. meanwhile China can and will move their goods to other countries and create other ties.. thing is they already are, its just a matter of accelerating the process. China has increased ties with Russia, with countries in Africa and countries in Latin America.. its just a matter of speeding things up, and they can defray the damages quite a bit
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China can survive without US trade economically but it would cause a myriad of difficult issues for the CPC that they'd rather avoid. Issues that while many in the US seem ignorant of, I can assure you, the CPC is not.
I wasn't trying to make the point that China *needs* US trade, it actually does not. The CPC is more reliant on the US than China is right now, I am sure you can understand what I'm trying to say.

Either way, I think working out a new trade agreement is a far better option to tariffs or any economic nuclear option for all parties involved. China especially but others as well have taken advantage of trade for so long that they won't likely budge without tariffs though.

The longer I live here in China, the weaker the CPC's grip on power seems to be. Xi has tried to cement his power and reassert that of the CPC but his methods are showing many signs of backfiring and causing deep resentment.
My "Bourne Bag" has been packed and ready for two years now.
 
nilepez said:
Tariffs are going to increase prices, but I don't get the increases they're quoting
1000 is 25% more than 800, not 10%
Does anyone know how tariffs are calculated? I assumed it was based on the price of the components in said product or in this case, perhaps, the wholesale price of the card. In either case, I'd expect the increase to be less than 80.
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It will be 25% by January, it's 10% for now.
 
Tariffs are not passed on directly. If the tariff is 25% expect a 40% for the consumer as all the middlemen have to make a higher profit. Also, tariffs really mess with supply chains causing shortages and therefore price increases. Anyone minimizing the impacts needs to get their head out of their ass.
 
Trade war with China is a joke. Let's get out multi trillion dollar military budget under control first!
 
viscountalpha said:
Trade war with China is a joke. Let's get out multi trillion dollar military budget under control first!
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You're the joke because china is now crying and almost all of those military budget dollars go to American Companies. Or maybe we should just let them keep walking over us because it's worked so well up to now.
 
Laowai said:
China can survive without US trade economically

I wasn't trying to make the point that China *needs* US trade, it actually does not.
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I strongly disagree. If you think China doesn't need ANY trade with the U.S. then I'd encourage you to do more research.

The only reason China doesn't destabilize is the year-over-economic growth. Keep people moving forward is the chief most goal of the regime. They cannot achieve such growth without the U.S.
 
Here's hoping all there trade wars result in lower prices for the rest of us
 
Joust said:
I strongly disagree. If you think China doesn't need ANY trade with the U.S. then I'd encourage you to do more research.

The only reason China doesn't destabilize is the year-over-economic growth. Keep people moving forward is the chief most goal of the regime. They cannot achieve such growth without the U.S.
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I agree "partially". Nobody truly needs the other in this relationship to survive. The economic pain threshold is key for each. I'm not sure I need cheap walmart junk to keep me happy. I'd gladly pay more for a washing machine or whatever. The chinese are coming from lower 3rd world to 3 in the world. The free world got them there, and a lot of it was USA. The ruling class elite of china need to keep the standard of living moving forward and up to keep their grip on power. Apparently, in America, that is not the case and not many are noticing that we have topped out and the standard of living has gone down, a bit.

So whom is under the most pressure? I believe it is china and we are acting appropriately, China is getting rich off of their unfair trade laws at our expense. It is time to put a stop to it and I dont mind paying a few bucks extra.
 
I'm completely ok with paying 100% more for my PC in order for manufacturing to be gradually shifted to a non-hostile country.

Remember: In China, these forums would already be considered illegal due to the out speaking against the government in previous posts.
 
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Pieter3dnow said:
You guys know right that China holds a good deal of American debt https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080615/china-owns-us-debt-how-much.asp

And some still people think there is a trade war to be won somehow ?
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This is about bringing china to the bargaining table for fair trade practices. If china sells off US Bonds, it will incur debt for not realizing the gains in their treasury purchase - so VERY unlikely. If they do sell, others will pick them up, be it at a reduced rate that will short term increase our national debt.
 
ltron said:
It will be 25% by January, it's 10% for now.
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Still, I don't think tariffs are based on MSRP. Of course, I suppose it's possible that if a 2080's wholesale cost is 500, and tariffs add 125, then I suppose they could charge 1000 instead of 925, but my guess is they would not, because the 925 is already going to hurt sales, but maybe their models will show they'll lose less revenue at 1000 than 925 (but I doubt it).
 
Mega6 said:
You're the joke because china is now crying and almost all of those military budget dollars go to American Companies. Or maybe we should just let them keep walking over us because it's worked so well up to now.
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Are you sure about this? If so, then China doesn't buy many weapons, because they're not a major buyer from us. the UK is a bigger buyer than China, and the UK in 2016 only bought 217 Million dollars worth of arms from us. They are now capable of making their own aircraft carrier, so I assume they make other ships and while they did just get in trouble for buying one or more planes from Russia, China makes it's own fighter jets. A quick google search shows 2 of them are the J-16 and the J-20.

I really don't think China relies on U.S. companies for their military. Now they may rely on us for Commercial Jets, though even their they could just as easily go with Airbus planes.
 
nilepez said:
Are you sure about this? If so, then China doesn't buy many weapons, because they're not a major buyer from us. the UK is a bigger buyer than China, and the UK in 2016 only bought 217 Million dollars worth of arms from us. They are now capable of making their own aircraft carrier, so I assume they make other ships and while they did just get in trouble for buying one or more planes from Russia, China makes it's own fighter jets. A quick google search shows 2 of them are the J-16 and the J-20.

I really don't think China relies on U.S. companies for their military. Now they may rely on us for Commercial Jets, though even their they could just as easily go with Airbus planes.
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Let me clarify. all of OUR military budget dollars go to US Companies. Is that not what your were referencing in the first place?

China buys a shitload of weapons from Russia. Chinese fighers are underpowered junk compared to US counterparts. They dont have the engine technology, stealth is not to our standard, training.. Their aircraft carrier next to useless as their carrier planes are outclassed and they have no experience running an aircraft carrier in battle like USA has for ninety years. It is not an easy task to land a jet on a pitching deck, let alone everything that comes with it. Fire/damage control, superior avionics, battle plan experience.. I could go on for a long time.
 
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Mega6 said:
Let me clarify. all of OUR military budget dollars go to US Companies. Is that not what your were referencing in the first place?

China buys a shitload of weapons from Russia. Chinese fighers are underpowered junk compared to US counterparts. They dont have the engine technology, stealth is not to our standard, training.. Their aircraft carrier next to useless as their carrier planes are outclassed and they have no experience running an aircraft carrier in battle like USA has for ninety years. It is not an easy task to land a jet on a pitching deck, let alone everything that comes with it. Fire/damage control, superior avionics, battle plan experience.. I could go on for a long time.
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Sorry man. I read your post without reading the OPs statement. You're correct almost all of our military budget goes to U.S. companies.
 
Paul_Johnson said:
I'm not sure how, because of the topic, but keep the politics out of this thread. If this goes that way this thread is done.
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These kind of articles should never be posted in the news section to begin with. The very fact that we are discussing a tradewar( political) and price inflation (again political) and anyone's opinion about what is happening ( political). The only response left to make is.. ok or cool or good afternoon fellow Hared OCpers because literally any other response in a thread like this is political.

We need to go back to being a hardware enthusiast site and not the Drudgereport of computer electronic politics. There are too many political articles posted in the news section here that are getting people banned or strikes because they are political articles yet no political discussion is allowed. I know H doesnt plan to have this stuff happen but political articles are political articles and there are obvious unintended consequences
 
tangoseal said:
These kind of articles should never be posted in the news section to begin with. The very fact that we are discussing a tradewar( political) and price inflation (again political) and anyone's opinion about what is happening ( political). The only response left to make is.. ok or cool or good afternoon fellow Hared OCpers because literally any other response in a thread like this is political.

We need to go back to being a hardware enthusiast site and not the Drudgereport of computer electronic politics. There are too many political articles posted in the news section here that are getting people banned or strikes because they are political articles yet no political discussion is allowed. I know H doesnt plan to have this stuff happen but political articles are political articles and there are obvious unintended consequences
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Smashing Young Man said:
Basically all you can say without becoming political is, "Well . . . that sucks."
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UrielDagda said:
Kind of difficult to not talk politics when talking about something being done by a politician.
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tangoseal said:
These kind of articles should never be posted in the news section to begin with. The very fact that we are discussing a tradewar( political) and price inflation (again political) and anyone's opinion about what is happening ( political). The only response left to make is.. ok or cool or good afternoon fellow Hared OCpers because literally any other response in a thread like this is political.

We need to go back to being a hardware enthusiast site and not the Drudgereport of computer electronic politics. There are too many political articles posted in the news section here that are getting people banned or strikes because they are political articles yet no political discussion is allowed. I know H doesnt plan to have this stuff happen but political articles are political articles and there are obvious unintended consequences
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If it is too difficult to follow the rules in this thread, then I suggest you not post in this thread.
 
Why do people keep saying trade wars? It's just tariffs. Other countries have already been paying a premium for graphics cards, just tariffs, nothing new.
Now people in the US have to pay more, does that make it a war?
 
Paul_Johnson said:
If it is too difficult to follow the rules in this thread, then I suggest you not post in this thread.
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But every post in this thread is political. That was the point of my post: it is an innately political topic and every on-topic post in the thread will necessarily be political.

The whole no-politics rule for Front Page News is fuzzy given many of the unavoidably political articles posted. I'm guess it's blatant partisan bickering y'all want to avoid.
 
I think the staff is showing a little flexibility, why doesn't everyone else?

edit: i dont think anyone wants to be in a forum with "to the letter" rules. That kind of atmosphere is not conducive to "free discussion" which if thankfully promoted here.
 
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filip said:
Why do people keep saying trade wars? It's just tariffs. Other countries have already been paying a premium for graphics cards, just tariffs, nothing new.
Now people in the US have to pay more, does that make it a war?
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when two countries apply tariffs back and forth as retaliation, that is know as a trade war.
 
This will have some very unexpected and terrible consequences. But eh, whatever. What's going to happen will happen and the window for fixing this economy slipped by years ago.

I've heard of two stories where this tradewar has hurt actual people. I expect to hear plenty more in the coming days.
 
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Mega6 said:
when two countries apply tariffs back and forth as retaliation, that is know as a trade war.
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Yeah I looked up what a trade war is too. It is a new coined term to make economic sanctions, such as tariffs, a buzz word (CRINGE). This "war" is not about raising tariffs to get money, it is just economic sanctions the US has put into play to get something (apparently bring jobs back to the USA). The EU has done the same thing in the past where where these trade wars then?
America can't win a "trade war" with china is all I hear. America is not trying to win a "trade war", they have a goal for imposing these tariff/sanctions and hopefully they have done some good planing, so what they wanted pans out.
 
filip said:
Yeah I looked up what a trade war is too. It is a new coined term to make economic sanctions, such as tariffs, a buzz word (CRINGE). This "war" is not about raising tariffs to get money, it is just economic sanctions the US has put into play to get something (apparently bring jobs back to the USA). The EU has done the same thing in the past where where these trade wars then?
America can't win a "trade war" with china is all I hear. America is not trying to win a "trade war", they have a goal for imposing these tariff/sanctions and hopefully they have done some good planing, so what they wanted pans out.
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It's an OLD term. Ive already stated what this is about - "This is about bringing china to the bargaining table for fair trade practices" Stop deviating for your own agenda.
 
Mega6 said:
It's an OLD term. Ive already stated what this is about - "This is about bringing china to the bargaining table for fair trade practices" Stop deviating for your own agenda.
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Show me it's an old term. Stop divulging your own agenda.
You are correct that it is for fair trade deals, regardless of this fact it is just a sanction to get a fair deal.

Edited for clarity.
 
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There won't be any real price increase until I'm ready to purchase a new gpu. My luck is just that bad.
 
filip said:
Show me it's an old term. Stop divulging your own agenda.
You are correct that it is for fair trade deals, regardless of this fact it is just a sanction to get a fair deal.

Edited for clarity.
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WTF? really? What is the question and point? LOL Edit again for clarity.
 
Mega6 said:
WTF? really? What is the question and point? LOL Edit again for clarity.
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I mean can it be any clearer? Show me trade war and OLD term.
My point if you can connect it is that the term trade war is a new term made up as a buzz word and possibly also used to confuse people who do not have the capacity to google.
I believe that calling it a trade war is pushing an agenda. Let me clarify further, why is a buzz word used? To draw attention to a particular topic and make it memorable and then from there try to convince someone that a particular view is the correct one. Is it an old term, no. I bet you that you cannot find that it is an old term.

the edited for clarity was changing your comment, which I used because i misread it, "Stop deviating for your own agenda." (which assumed I had one, I don't) to something more appropriate for what I was trying to get across.

As I can see you wont be able to answer because I too have the magical power of google and the crystal ball is telling me trade war is a new buzz term. LOL WTF? Really?
 
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Prices will never go down even if China and the US worked together on a deal. Because "profit".
 
Prices will never go down even if China and the US worked together on a deal. Because "profit".
 
[21CW]killerofall said:
There are no winners in trade wars, only losers. Everyone pays more for shit and sells less shit. Less money coming in due to decreased sales and more money coming out due to increased costs. Jobs are never coming back to the US as no one can afford to buy our products with such a high markup due to the cost of labor difference. Are the world leaders trying to send the global economy into the shitter? Because this is exactly how you do that.

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."
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This.
 
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