Tesla Largely Responsible for Slide in US Home Solar Sales

Megalith

Megalith

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Home solar installations in the United States are poised to fall for the first time this year, and installation data suggests that most of the slowdown is traceable to Tesla, which acquired sister company SolarCity about a year ago. For years, SolarCity was the biggest player in residential solar and the driving force behind that market’s supercharged growth.

When Tesla bought SolarCity last year, Musk called the acquisition a “no-brainer,” saying the two companies shared “the same overarching goal of sustainable energy.” But under Tesla’s ownership, the company has largely stopped its aggressive marketing campaigns and ambitious expansion. As a result, Tesla’s rooftop solar installations have fallen sharply each quarter this year compared to last.
 
Megalith said:
suggests that most of the slowdown is traceable to Tesla, which acquired sister company SolarCity
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Cousin company is more accurate. The founders of Solar City are literally Elon's cousins. Elon has been involved since day -1.
 
It sounds good until you start looking at the numbers. I nearly signed on the dotted line, until you realize it's a 20 year lease that stays with the home. I can't predict the future 5-10 years out. The rate is allowed to rise something like 3% per year. My electric bill rises and falls over the years as I shop around. This is locked in to a rising rate. Plus as of now they do not energy storage, so at night you are on the grid. Also with the market being flooded, the buy back rate is pitiful so you won't be offsetting the cost in most markets.


The future is there, as is the potential, but it still has lots of hurdles for normal folk like me. Much like a Tesla car.
 
I wonder if since they aren't burning a bunch of money marketing if the profit per install is going up. Putting an end to annoying door-to-door sales and cold calls seems like a good thing to me.
 
Musk is losing interest because the gubberment subsidies are drying up. Same will happen with his other efforts "RE: Tesla" when the gubberment monies dry up. IIRC none of his efforts stand on their own feet financially w/o gobbs of taxpater $$.
 
Evil Scooter said:
Musk is losing interest because the gubberment subsidies are drying up. Same will happen with his other efforts "RE: Tesla" when the gubberment monies dry up. IIRC none of his efforts stand on their own feet financially w/o gobbs of taxpater $$.
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English?
 
Evil Scooter said:
Musk is losing interest because the gubberment subsidies are drying up. Same will happen with his other efforts "RE: Tesla" when the gubberment monies dry up. IIRC none of his efforts stand on their own feet financially w/o gobbs of taxpater $$.
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Without those government subsidies for electric cars it would still be a pipe dream. There is a need RIGHT NOW to kickstart massive adoption of electric vehicles(the Chinese are racing us to a mastery of this technology, and you know, the whole global warming and energy security thing) , I do think it's a waste that it applies to luxury EV's though, that doesn't help.
 
Chaos Machine said:
Without those government subsidies for electric cars it would still be a pipe dream. There is a need RIGHT NOW to kickstart massive adoption of electric vehicles(the Chinese are racing us to a mastery of this technology, and you know, the whole global warming and energy security thing) , I do think it's a waste that it applies to luxury EV's though, that doesn't help.
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Some of the very first cars were electric.. the technology is ages old. Same for solar. If the industry cannot stand on it's own two feet at this point, it's simply not viable. Throwing good money after bad into an industry that cannot sustain itself... time to move on. I could give a hoot what the Chinese are doing, they can dig their own graves with this EV stupidity. Global warming.. if you buy into that nonsense.. does not give a rip if the co2 comes out of your tailpipe or the power-plant that provides the lecrticity for your EV. Want energy security? Let's take advantage of the vast stores of energy under our feet here in the US and we won't need to import jack.
 
Chaos Machine said:
Without those government subsidies for electric cars it would still be a pipe dream. There is a need RIGHT NOW to kickstart massive adoption of electric vehicles(the Chinese are racing us to a mastery of this technology, and you know, the whole global warming and energy security thing) , I do think it's a waste that it applies to luxury EV's though, that doesn't help.
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I think, if anything, the luxury EVs help raise market awareness for these kinds of cars in general. Tesla has cemented itself as an object of desire. Had they opened with the Model 3 out of the gate, I'm not sure it would have been as popular.
 
Krixon said:
QFT. We should have let GM and Chrysler die.
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As a Ford stockholder, yes. If they had let Chrysler die the first time around the others might have gotten the message and fixed themselves. Instead the message was sent that the Feds will bail you out if you screw up.

Not mentioned yet is the petition to the Federal Govt by one or more of the bit player American solar companies to impose tariffs on the low cost solar panels coming from China. Last I heard was the tariff, if imposed, would raise US prices between 20 and 40%. This could leave the taxpayers paying for solar subsidies to those who adopt and those who adopt paying higher prices due to Federal tariffs. The winners would be the American companies that can't otherwise compete with China and the Chinese companies free to raise prices on panels sold to America.
 
I mean people complain a lot, however tests pays its taxes. Ford, Chrysler and GM have huge tax breaks so they pay less then 15% while tesla pays 35%.

GM doe have the biggest subsidy of any automotive manufacturer but boring has the biggest at over 30,000,000,000.

Lot of those manufacture in other countries to get lower taxes on parts and pre assembly and pay even lower effective tax rates.

I am happy ford hasn't bottomed out like other ex-Detroit companies but don't believe for a second they are not taking from the economy to survive.

Side note Abercrombie and fitch have more subsidies than tesla.....so yeah.

Easy info to find, perplexed me that people are hung up on such an amazing company.
 
There are a tonne of industries in the USA that receive heavy subsidising. Corn alone is pretty big. I think you may be surprised how not free the market is in the USA...

Krixon said:
QFT. We should have let GM and Chrysler die.
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Solar is sliding because incentives are sliding. The bubble in California is done - no more state level incentives, the utilities are starting to push back against private solar, and haven't pushed for any utility-scale projects in several years. The federal subsidy (ITC) is a year by year thing that has to be authorized by Congress each time, and it's always been on shaky ground, particularly with a Pro-Coal administration.

Most everyone in CA that wants solar has it by now, all the growth your really seeing Solar in CA now is with new buildings, so it will follow the construction industry more than anything.

It may pick up in other states, but I don't think it will be anything like CA was over the past 10 years. Some state utilities still remain hostile to it.

SolarCity isn't necessarily to blame for all of that - they are simply one of the largest installers, so of course they will be impacted the most when the industry shifts.

Energy Storage is the new hotness - I expect a lot of incentives to swing this way in a big way - pretty much like solar was back in 10-15 years ago.
 
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westrock2000 said:
It sounds good until you start looking at the numbers. I nearly signed on the dotted line, until you realize it's a 20 year lease that stays with the home. I can't predict the future 5-10 years out. The rate is allowed to rise something like 3% per year. My electric bill rises and falls over the years as I shop around. This is locked in to a rising rate. Plus as of now they do not energy storage, so at night you are on the grid. Also with the market being flooded, the buy back rate is pitiful so you won't be offsetting the cost in most markets.


The future is there, as is the potential, but it still has lots of hurdles for normal folk like me. Much like a Tesla car.
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You can do a lease. You can also sign what is called a PPA, where the company installs solar panels on your property, and you buy whatever power you use, just like you do the utility company. And you can outright buy them and have them installed if you want. Nothing says you have to sign a 20 year lease if your interested. If you purchase yourself, most solar companies will try to show a 3-4 year payback, in my experience it's actually closer to 7-9 (that depends greatly on your local utility rates). Some people are willing to make that investment, some aren't.

Whatever you do just read the fine print - you want to make sure where the ITC and any other incentive money is going - some leases/PPAs you sign that over to the installer/provider, others you get to keep it and it does make for a nice tax refund check. You can be sure if they don't mention anything about it, then they are planning on keeping it - someone is filing for it somewhere.

As far as energy storage - for most people/utilities it doesn't make much sense. You get what is called Net Metering (which is actually a Federal mandate that it be offered), which basically allows you to use the utility grid as a giant battery. In some places, it's nearly a 2-1 exchange and is a great deal, for every 1W you push in during the day, you can pull back almost 2W at night for no charge. If the utility company is willing to act as a battery, then why pay for one (unless you just want to offgrid it).
 
Brian_B said:
You can do a lease. You can also sign what is called a PPA, where the company installs solar panels on your property, and you buy whatever power you use, just like you do the utility company. And you can outright buy them and have them installed if you want. Nothing says you have to sign a 20 year lease if your interested.
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That is possible. The sales man never mentioned buying it outright, only a lease. No other sales model was discussed. He was a sales man though and the incentive for leasing is probably much higher. This was also in North Texas market. This was with Solar City. I ended finding a power company that was charging 5 cents per kilowatt hour 1 day before signing the lease. Sales man wasn't too happy.
 
Texas market is tricky. You guys are your own grid independant of the rest of the US, and massive amounts of Wind keep your prices pretty low.

Solar City's business model is around leasing/PPAs - they really don't want to just sell you panels. I know here in CA, there are literally dozens of shops that sell solar - electricians, HVAC contractors, plumbers, there's even a furniture store.
 
viper1152012 said:
I mean people complain a lot, however tests pays its taxes. Ford, Chrysler and GM have huge tax breaks so they pay less then 15% while tesla pays 35%.
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Considering Tesla has large losses virtually every quarter, Tesla doesn't pay much income taxes at all.
 
In late 2015, SolarCity withdrew from solar sales and installation in Nevada, following the decision by the state's Public Utilities Commission (PUC) to raise the monthly service charge for rooftop solar customers and progressively reduce the return on solar energy sold back into the grid under the state's net metering rule.[12] Under the new rules, the monthly service charge imposed on Nevada Power's rooftop solar-generating customers rose from $12.75 to $17.90 and was scheduled to rise to $38.51 by January 1, 2020; simultaneously, the rates given to rooftop solar generating customers for their surplus solar energy were also clawed back and were to continue to decline over the ensuing four years
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But yeah lets just blame Tesla for buying them, more and more municipalities are getting antsy about people generating their own power, so upping the minimum price to be connected to the grid, then solar doesn't look so attractive.
 
Chaos Machine said:
Without those government subsidies for electric cars it would still be a pipe dream. There is a need RIGHT NOW to kickstart massive adoption of electric vehicles(the Chinese are racing us to a mastery of this technology, and you know, the whole global warming and energy security thing) , I do think it's a waste that it applies to luxury EV's though, that doesn't help.
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Mastery of this technology?

The problem is not the technology, it's trying to build one with a decent range that is still affordable.

Any of the current car companies have the technology to build an electric car (or could easily aquire it).
The problem is that most people don't want to spend twice as much for a tiny car, with a limited range, no spare tire, that takes hours to charge.
 
I almost bought a house that had SolarCity panels. Payments started off reasonable enough, but then they go up every year. And the longer you have it, the less efficient the panels become. And if you wanted more power coverage and there is a lease already, you need to make a 2nd lease. Not to mention you don't get ANY of the tax benefits. They get to keep all that.

fuck that noise.

I rather just buy a system outright.
 
more like the coming end of hefty tax credits. If people need to fork out the full installation cost, of course the numbers will dwindle.
 
I am not sure about how solar city works in other places, but I have solar city panels for my home in Maryland. Electricity rate is locked in at 11cents per kw/H for 20 years and will never increase. Local power increases 5% a year on average. Most of the savings comes from locking in the rate over time. Solar city warranties and services everything themselves for 20 years and I can buy the system outright at any time at a substantial discount. Every other vendor I talked to would have a "manufacturer's warranty". Inverters are often only good for 10-15 years, so I thought Solar city was the safest choice.
 
timberwolf said:
OR, more likely that the solar power industry is running out of other peoples money.
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personally i just think the technology isn't there to make it as viable as people want it to be.. i'd love to move to solar but it's only useful here 3 months out of the year and that's 3 of the 5 months where our electricity is the cheapest.
 
I've been seeing this on the G feed and I've yet to read it. If they don't mention that tax breaks and the amount for paying back into the grid changes in the blurb then I feel it's going to be myopic speculation.
 
ahhh, is that why i have seen a sharp decline in the door to door solar sales people

GOOD!
 
Solar panels would be destroyed in sunny hurricane areas, so would windmills. Another fail for diffuse energy sources.
 
MrDeaf said:
Oh, you want to end tax subsidies?

Should I mention Farming?
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Do you like to eat? Thank a farmer. I know my family's 300 acres isn't getting any tax subsidies that will cover the crappy crop we got this year that barely pays the mortgage or seed costs or fuel costs or taxes on the land or repair costs on the equipment. Not everyone has 10,000 acres and gets those subsidies.
 
jtmcclain said:
Do you like to eat? Thank a farmer. I know my family's 300 acres isn't getting any tax subsidies that will cover the crappy crop we got this year that barely pays the mortgage or seed costs or fuel costs or taxes on the land or repair costs on the equipment. Not everyone has 10,000 acres and gets those subsidies.
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So ending subsidies for farming shouldn't be a problem for you.
 
Brian_B said:
As far as energy storage - for most people/utilities it doesn't make much sense. You get what is called Net Metering (which is actually a Federal mandate that it be offered), which basically allows you to use the utility grid as a giant battery. In some places, it's nearly a 2-1 exchange and is a great deal, for every 1W you push in during the day, you can pull back almost 2W at night for no charge. If the utility company is willing to act as a battery, then why pay for one (unless you just want to offgrid it).
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I'm not aware of any federal mandate requiring net metering, only that public utilities consider the issue. I'm in an area where we're served by a co-op rather than a public utility and they changed the rule this year so it's no longer cost effective to sell power back to the co. (they charge retail, buy at wholesale). I had solar on our condo but I'm not doing it on our home because it doesn't pencil out. I have an electric car, too, but it's not penciling out yet, either.

The reason for the slowdown is because utilities have been pushing back against home solar for the past few years and finally got a toehold. I'm pretty sure they shut it down in NV and going after or already cut it out of AZ. The rules in CA have changed, although those of us with systems under NEM 1.0 are grandfathered for 20 years, NEM 2.0 isn't as bad as what happened to my co-op but even that will eventually be superseded.
 
opfreak said:
It would actually help him, because it would make his farm more competitive with the big boys. Right now they are getting a break he isn't.
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Yup it would be a big help. I just get tired of people assuming all farmers get these stupid subsidies. Around here only the big farmers can afford to buy the farmland, at $10,000+ an acre you cant break even.
 
I don't think people aware of the details are assuming all farmers are getting these subsidies, but rather that there aren't very many of your family's farm left so when they say "farms" they're referring to the huge, corporate variety in general.
 
Well it's also only commodity crops that get subsides too, corn, wheat, soy, etc. if you grow fruits and vegetables that spoil if they don't sell then you don't qualify.
 
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