Pretty Soon Electric Cars Will Cost Less Than Gasoline

nutzo said:
Except you will still have the long charging times.

I can fill up my gas tank in less than 5 minutes. Even the fastest charging electric car (Tesla) will only charge the battery half way in 30 minutes.
If gas station add chargers, they better put them in a different line than the gas pumps. I can see many angry people when they have to wait 30 minutes or more for the car in front of them to charge their battery.
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That may or may not be true. Neither of us know how fast future battery tech will charge. Remember, I'm looking beyond Li as implied by my previous post. I personally don't think Li will cut it for previously mentioned reasons. Weather it does or not, yes that's an educated guess. To say that we're going to use Li cells forever is foolish though.

Another thought: what if the gas stations swap out your dead battery for a charged one? This isn't a new idea....

My point is don't make assumptions. When gas cars started they were horribly unreliable. That got solved just as the current issues with electric will.
 
sadsteve said:
Not all a load of crap. Considering the 100 mile range (~average out there currently) my last trip to Chicago, from Southern California would take around 2 days longer. This is assuming a recharge time of 2 hours.

The range needs to be increased by quite a bit and either battery replacement or some type of fast charger needs to be implemented.
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This was something I did acknowledge...right now no electric isn't worthwhile. It's certainly not for me, I have a 100km commute each way.

My point was that to believe that this will never change is very short sighted indeed.
 
THRESHIN said:
That may or may not be true. Neither of us know how fast future battery tech will charge.
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But, right now, it's completely true. On long distance trips, an electric car can add a day or more to your trip. Not just for charging, but for planning your trip around the need to recharge.

Going all "pie in the sky" on experimental battery tech that isn't even lab-proven yet helps NOTHING. You may as well introduce a flex-fuel car powered by elf jism and unicorn farts.

Another thought: what if the gas stations swap out your dead battery for a charged one? This isn't a new idea....
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No, some Tesla stations already tried to do this. They killed the program in favor of superchargers. Batteries are still expensive. Labor's still expensive. And it takes time to pull a battery pack off the underside of a Tesla.

My point is don't make assumptions. When gas cars started they were horribly unreliable. That got solved just as the current issues with electric will.
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Yep. But the gasoline automobile now has 130+ years of design and infrastructure development behind it.

If you think that ONE rich guy is going to completely duplicate that kind of infrastructure within a 10-20 years, you're crazy. Even with light competition from major auto vendors, we're not going to see the kind of changeover being talked about within a human lifetime.
 
Chas said:
But the gasoline automobile now has 130+ years of design and infrastructure development behind it. If you think that ONE rich guy is going to completely duplicate that kind of infrastructure within a 10-20 years, you're crazy.
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Electricity access is everywhere though and technically some of the 1st cars were actually battery powered too you know.

The problem isn't installing chargers, they're cheaper and easier to install than a gas station or fuel pump anyways. Any current existing gas station can easily install one if they want and I've seen ones that have. The problem is charge time and current battery tech. Both of which will improve significantly over the next few years at least.
 
THRESHIN said:
Another thought: what if the gas stations swap out your dead battery for a charged one? This isn't a new idea....
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The problem with this is right now it requires a lot of time , special tools, and training unless they are going to redesign the cars.

These batteries are not designed to be easily replaced. As someone who is trained on many different electric and hybrid cars, I can tell you, it's no joke working with these batteries , and you don't want just anyone sticking their hands in there
 
I can not be the only person that read the thread thinking "Soon I'll be able to buy an entire electric car for less than a fill-up of gasoline? Seriously? Wow... that's impressive, those Chinese factories really can produce stuff at low costs, amazing..." :D

I mean I get it, really I do but the title could have been worded just a bit more clearly like maybe "Pretty Soon Electric Cars Will Cost Less Than Their Gasoline Cousins" or something of that nature I suppose. Yes I'm being a bonehead, it happens on occasion and becoming more frequent as I get older. ;)
 
Maybe people should start thinking about electric cars as just a commuter vehicle to get to work, school, store, etc...
I would love it.
 
Until range improves significantly and standardized ratings and testing of range/charge time/lifespan of these vehicles in -20° weather I won't touch them.

Edit: although an AWD electric vehicle with each wheel having an independent motor could be awesome..
 
Logan321 said:
Sure, but used electrics are a sinkhole. Once the batteries start to drop capacity, you're looking at a huge expense to replace them. How many people are going to replace the batteries, THEN sell the car? Probably no-one. So on top of the car cost, you're looking at buying new batteries almost immediately. That's the downside of the current expense of the EV batteries. Once they come down a lot, it'll make a huge difference... but when they still cost more than an engine rebuild, it's hardly a motivator of used EV sales.
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The other problem is obsolescence.

When your car's empty fuel dummy light comes on, and you are "out of gas", you typically have a 40 mile range before the engine will shut off. Just to put things in perspective, when you're buying a Fiat 500 electric, and the range brand new is only double that to begin with, then when used and the battery is only charging to half capacity, you can understand the range anxiety that causes... and if the new model has a 120 mile range, who wants to buy a car that even if you buy a brand new battery is going to have 50% less range when the range is already so small?

Now, what would be nice is if you could upgrade the battery pack on your car and get extended range, but because that would often involve quite a bit of redesign, that's generally not done. By contrast, I'm selling my 2001 Vette soon, and the next owner can rest assured that even though its 16 years old that thanks to its 19+ gallon fuel tank and average 26mpg fuel economy that he's still going to get around a 350 mile cruising range w/o issue.
 
We take a long road trip at least once every year. 1200 miles one way. If I need to wait longer than 30 minutes every 200-300 miles. No thanks.

But for around the town to and from work one makes good sense if the costs get down there. Then charge times are no big deal.
 
So i guess we are going to continue on with this Stop Gap tech and forget about Fuel Cells? seems like the human thing to do. This species is doomed
 
Riptide_NVN said:
We take a long road trip at least once every year. 1200 miles one way. If I need to wait longer than 30 minutes every 200-300 miles. No thanks.

But for around the town to and from work one makes good sense if the costs get down there. Then charge times are no big deal.
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The exact reason I picked up a 2017 Volt -- my round trip for work is ~75 miles. I generally get 55-60 miles in all battery mode, burn a tiny bit each day to finish the rest. I was used to gassing up twice a week, now? Maybe once every 4 to 6 weeks depending on driving habits now. One of the things very few people understand these days is just how nice it only having to gas up maybe 12 times a year vs 100+ That particular perk isn't something you really understand till you already have the car.

When I drive to visit family its a 400 mile round trip, car works exactly like a traditional ICE engine and don't stop once for gas the entire trip.


Funny enough some of the people who are so scared of the "battery going bad" - stop listening to people who have no idea what they are talking about and stop thinking cars are using battery tech from the 80s like NiCad that suffer from memory effect and were generally crappy. With the current setup and design of all moden Li-Ion batteries the longevity of the packs is better than any traditional car. Here's some user sourced data on their miles vs charge vs degradation that's pretty interesting.

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/

GM's design and approach was very conservative when it comes to protecting the battery, look at the 2012 Volt with 300k on the clock, 100k+ of that in all electric) http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102736_durable-2012-chevrolet-volt-300000-miles-no-battery-loss

If it's a money thing, you buy a cheap well used Honda that has 150k on the clock for 7 or 8k and you take care of it till the wheels fall off. Just like all the latest computer hardware we enjoy, you wanna play with the latest, you gotta pay. I love the zippy instant torque, silent running, and rarely having to visit a gas station.
 
Zepharus said:
So i guess we are going to continue on with this Stop Gap tech and forget about Fuel Cells? seems like the human thing to do. This species is doomed
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Unfortunately its looking like fuel cells are going to stay very expensive for a long time so they're not all that practical for use in a vehicle. They maybe will be able to make some sense for use as a generator for buildings but even then, due to the high costs, its not looking good for that tech. Batteries + solar are actually starting to get good enough to make fuel cells kinda pointless it seems. Its going to take a gigantic leap in membrane and catalyst tech to improve on this situation and there doesn't seem to be much that is practical to implement on the horizon.
 
sadsteve said:
Not all a load of crap. Considering the 100 mile range (~average out there currently) my last trip to Chicago, from Southern California would take around 2 days longer. This is assuming a recharge time of 2 hours.

The range needs to be increased by quite a bit and either battery replacement or some type of fast charger needs to be implemented.
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I don't know where you getting the range. I have taken more than one Tesla between Las Vegas, San Diego & Los Angeles charged when I got to my destination I just grab a super charger the shortest range Tesla is over 200 miles. I have been in one with over 250 and it had juice when we went. The auto drive is worth it so much.

DocNo said:
How many people take trips like that on a weekly, yet alone monthly basis?

Dealers are up in arms about Tesla and other electrics not because of issues around the sale of electric cars, but because they don't need hardly any maintenance unlike their ICE gas guzzling brethren. Dealers live off of oil changes and other maintenance, not new car sales.
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I take long trips regularly, but usually anything outside of 200-250 miles we fly.

This is coming from someone that used to be a part of a dealership.

The bottom line isn't off of out of warranty maintenance, out of warranty fixes, but from used car sales, and warranty maintenance. The new car sales aren't that much either. The reason the dealers hate Tesla is the way they sell cars direct cutting out the dealerships!
 
mesyn191 said:
Electricity access is everywhere though and technically some of the 1st cars were actually battery powered too you know.

The problem isn't installing chargers, they're cheaper and easier to install than a gas station or fuel pump anyways. Any current existing gas station can easily install one if they want and I've seen ones that have. The problem is charge time and current battery tech. Both of which will improve significantly over the next few years at least.
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You apparently have never seen the wiring situations in most gas stations and truck stops....

Simply hooking up a bunch of chargers is a bit more difficult than you'd believe.

And remember, a stay beside a gas pump is maybe 5 minutes. You don't have someone impeding traffic flow by standing at one of them for 30-60 minutes at a time. Space has to be set aside for them. And that kind of space is not easily freed up in many locations.

So yes, while there's usually no problem PHYSICALLY delivering a charger to a station, the actual installation is still stirs up issues.
 
Chas said:
Simply hooking up a bunch of chargers is a bit more difficult than you'd believe.
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I said cheaper and easier to install than a gas pump or gas station. I didn't say it'd be trivial as in "just plug this thing in and go". You're still looking at spending at least a few grand to get one installed but that is nothing compared to how much the fuel pumps and storage tanks cost for gas.

Chas said:
And remember, a stay beside a gas pump is maybe 5 minutes. Space has to be set aside for them. And that kind of space is not easily freed up in many locations.
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Actually it is. They just put the chargers next to a parking spot. The chargers themselves aren't large at all and I don't know why you'd think they'd be difficult to install. You can even mount them on a wall if you like.

Chas said:
So yes, while there's usually no problem PHYSICALLY delivering a charger to a station, the actual installation is still stirs up issues.
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You either have a lack of imagination or just haven't seen how these things are installed in a actual location so you're making mountains out of molehills here. None of the issues you're talking about are show stoppers or particularly onerous in any way.
 
uberjon said:
Edit: although an AWD electric vehicle with each wheel having an independent motor could be awesome..
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Honda has a three motor system (one front motor, independent rear motors) in the Acura NSX and hybrid versions of the Acura RLX and MDX.
 
mesyn191 said:
I said cheaper and easier to install than a gas pump or gas station. I didn't say it'd be trivial as in "just plug this thing in and go". You're still looking at spending at least a few grand to get one installed but that is nothing compared to how much the fuel pumps and storage tanks cost for gas.
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You're looking a lot more than that if you want "high-speed" DC charging with 400V/300A, and even at that power output a gas pump still delivers a magnitude more miles/hour.
 
Those ones do cost a lot more right now but the price will go down on them too. They've already come down quite a bit from where they were a few years ago. Back then they could cost $50K. Now you can get a fast charger for around $25K I believe. BTC is claiming theirs will charge a car to 80% from zero with current battery tech in about 20min.

As battery tech improves and cost drops so will the tech for chargers.

Basically most of the criticisms in this thread are being made under the assumption that improvements don't happen and that current battery issues will be same forever and I don't know why they keep doing that.
 
mesyn191 said:
Those ones do cost a lot more right now but the price will go down on them too. They've already come down quite a bit from where they were a few years ago. Back then they could cost $50K. Now you can get a fast charger for around $25K I believe. BTC is claiming theirs will charge a car to 80% from zero with current battery tech in about 20min.

As battery tech improves and cost drops so will the tech for chargers.

Basically most of the criticisms in this thread are being made under the assumption that improvements don't happen and that current battery issues will be same forever and I don't know why they keep doing that.
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Qualcomm and Samsung are working on fastcharging tech for cars as we speak. What could go wrong?
 
One day, the cars will also be able to charge via solar power.
Maybe even via static electricity from tire rotation.

There will be more ways to charge a car than just plugging it in. It'll take time, but, we'll get there. Most likely not this lifetime though, too many corporations holding us back.
 
THRESHIN said:
When gas cars started they were horribly unreliable. That got solved just as the current issues with electric will.
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If you consider the high maintenance of gas powered vehicles reliable...I got a bridge to sell you.

I take my Tesla in once a year to change a few filters and rotate my tires. I bet I could skip this and only go in if any work was needed. Try doing that to an ICE vehicle.

In any case, I bet within a decade we will have a battery that could do a full charge in 15min or less at really high voltages. Li is probably a stop-gap to help drive early adoption.
 
mesyn191 said:
Actually it is. They just put the chargers next to a parking spot. The chargers themselves aren't large at all and I don't know why you'd think they'd be difficult to install. You can even mount them on a wall if you like.
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Not sure where you're located at that has big, roomy gas stations with lots of free parking spaces to spare.

Around me, they tend to be a lot more cramped. Doubly so if the place has a car wash attached.
 
sadsteve said:
Not all a load of crap. Considering the 100 mile range (~average out there currently) my last trip to Chicago, from Southern California would take around 2 days longer. This is assuming a recharge time of 2 hours.

The range needs to be increased by quite a bit and either battery replacement or some type of fast charger needs to be implemented.
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This is the biggest problem I see, as as things currently site, most electric cars are second or third cars for people. The limited range eliminates a large number of people who either can't afford, or can't justify, buying a spare car just for driving around town. Increasing the range, even by a considerable percentage wont solve that issue. This reminds me of all the celebrities who brag about their electric car, but strangely you only ever see them getting out of gas powered SUVs and limos, sure they own one, but just so they can show what wonderful people they are, classic virtue signaling.Most people I know that own electric cars spend far more time in their gas cars than their electric ones, for various reasons, but my God do they ramble on about "going electric."

An interesting point about debates I see/hear like this one, you have one side discussing "that is accused of bashing electric vehicles," the current state of vehicles while the others love to argue what the could potentially happen down the line, which to me speaks volumes. I mean if you drop a large chunk of change on a vehicle and then pick a fight based on "what might be" as opposed to what you own, your position might be weaker than you're willing to admit (like the guy above who said the one commenter's view was "narrow" because he was only considering current weights when comparing current gas and electric cars. WTF?!?
 
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SamuraiInBlack said:
I think what would really push EV's would be.....more places where you can charge up and take care of things while you wait. One of the big concerns I've read is the lack of places where you can charge up your car. Gas stations are everywhere. You can practically navigate the US by how many gas stations are out there. I think if charging stations for EVs were more prevalent, or at least more widely advertised, it would ease the concern about being able to make it to/from your destination.

Example: Truck stop diners/off-highway restaurants/rest areas. It would be awesome if you could go to a highway oasis/rest area and plug in your car while you get out, stretch your legs a bit, maybe grab a bite to eat while you wait. Same would go for any truck stop diners and such. I was just looking on PlugShare and for the state of Michigan, the amount of high power stations is minimal at best. There seems to be a decent amount of public stations, but many are set up for businesses that don't serve food, or government facilities. I doubt these places would let just anyone drive up to charge up for a bit unless they had actual reason to be there. (i.e. worker, patient/customer with appointment, etc.) It seems some grocery stores, malls, and major chain restaurants offer a way to charge up, but it's not everywhere. Some PlugShare users apparently are willing to share their own home charging stations, which is great, but not everyone is comfortable with going to someone's house for the sole purpose of refueling their car. It might be a great way to make friends, but it's not everyone's cup of tea.
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Yeah most of the ones I see are at like Best Buy and Meijer.
 
Logan321 said:
Qualcomm and Samsung are working on fastcharging tech for cars as we speak. What could go wrong?
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So are lots of other companies. The tech for chargers also isn't exactly new, company specific, or technically difficult either.

scojer said:
It'll take time, but, we'll get there. Most likely not this lifetime though, too many corporations holding us back.
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Chargers have already seen large improvements in performance, efficiency, and cost just over the last 10yr. You won't have to wait a lifetime. Really the chargers aren't a issue at all. Its the rate the batteries themselves can the charged that are more of a problem. But that too will improve with better batteries.

Chas said:
Not sure where you're located at that has big, roomy gas stations with lots of free parking spaces to spare.
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Any parking space can double as a charging spot. Most gas stations typically have at least 3-5 available. You don't need a particularly big gas station with lots of spots to make it viable particularly once the battery tech improves. It'll never be as fast as a gas fill up but charging to 50-80% capacity in 10 min. or less will be quite doable with new battery tech.
 
VRT said:
I don't know where you getting the range. I have taken more than one Tesla between Las Vegas, San Diego & Los Angeles charged when I got to my destination I just grab a super charger the shortest range Tesla is over 200 miles. I have been in one with over 250 and it had juice when we went. The auto drive is worth it so much.[/QUOT

For range, I just looked online for the quoted range for all the reasonably (no $50,000+ cars) priced electrics out there and 100 miles was about the average.
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mesyn191 said:
Any parking space can double as a charging spot. Most gas stations typically have at least 3-5 available. You don't need a particularly big gas station with lots of spots to make it viable particularly once the battery tech improves. It'll never be as fast as a gas fill up but charging to 50-80% capacity in 10 min. or less will be quite doable with new battery tech.
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My point is, those parking spots are normally VERY short-term parking for customers just popping into the store.
 
Chas said:
My point is, those parking spots are normally VERY short-term parking for customers just popping into the store.
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OK and how does that make it impossible for them to be used as charging stations too? I see plenty of people all the time who hang out in those spots already in their cars every day and night when I'm getting gas or buying something. edit: And that has been true for decades.

They're eating, or talking on their phone, or just waiting for someone. No one flips out about it.
 
mesyn191 said:
OK and how does that make it impossible for them to be used as charging stations too? I see plenty of people all the time who hang out in those spots already in their cars every day and night when I'm getting gas or buying something. edit: And that has been true for decades.

They're eating, or talking on their phone, or just waiting for someone. No one flips out about it.
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It doesn't, but they want those slots open for the next customer, not have one car parked in it for 15-20 minutes to charge their car. Which brings up the next issue, companies are going to expect to be paid for charging these cars, and the more congested an area is, the more they are going to want. For example if someone has a little mini mart with a dozen parking spots and they decide to add chargers to 4 of the spots, and let's say each charge averages 15 minutes. They are going to have to charge enough not only to pay for the electric, but also the commercial charging equipment, installation and maintenance, as well as any potential loss of sales from tying up those 4 slots for that time and finally, at the end of the day, they are going to want to get a bit of a profit off them as well.

Also many little gas station/mini marts biggest issue is parking, so expecting them all to tie up slots for charging stations is unrealistic.
 
Sufu said:
I take my Tesla in once a year to change a few filters and rotate my tires. I bet I could skip this and only go in if any work was needed. Try doing that to an ICE vehicle.
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Once a year is all the service my Hybrid needs, although the Oil change (very 10K miles) is something an electric car doesn't need.

Just like on an electric car, the regenerative brakes will easily last over 100k miles. It also have no belts to replace as even the air conditioner is all electric.
 
DarkStar_WNY said:
It doesn't, but they want those slots open for the next customer
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Everything you're bringing up is an "of course" when talking about installing a charger as a matter of business so I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

They won't have to tie up all the parking spots either. Many will simply choose to charge enough to get home where they can charge more as necessary from a wall unit. None of this is the nigh insurmountable issue you're making it out to be.
 
the biggest hurdle is infrastructure. Even if the product is great, you need an infrastructure to support it. Bio fuels will fair better in the foreseeable future. Some are getting close to a 1 to 1 ratio with gasoline and there's an infrastructure already in place. LS9 has been making some great strides with their fermentation bio-mass process. Renewable energy is great, but if you can just replace what is already there... thats even better.
 
I'm all for elf-driving solar powered cars, never needing to be plugged in, just a battery for running at night/overcast... oh, add in a jacuzzi, personal chef, and netflicks
 
sadsteve said:
For range, I just looked online for the quoted range for all the reasonably (no $50,000+ cars) priced electrics out there and 100 miles was about the average.
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Driving the Tesla is a hell of a lot cheaper than my Tahoe after you figure in fuel etc, it was north of 75K just MSRP. I am not saying that I am a Tesla fan boy, I am not, but 100 miles range is not correct, you wouldn't catch me dead driving one of those small ass POS cars.

Also in this day and age 75k is fairly reasonable for a car.
 
DarkStar_WNY said:
It doesn't, but they want those slots open for the next customer, not have one car parked in it for 15-20 minutes to charge their car. Which brings up the next issue, companies are going to expect to be paid for charging these cars, and the more congested an area is, the more they are going to want. For example if someone has a little mini mart with a dozen parking spots and they decide to add chargers to 4 of the spots, and let's say each charge averages 15 minutes. They are going to have to charge enough not only to pay for the electric, but also the commercial charging equipment, installation and maintenance, as well as any potential loss of sales from tying up those 4 slots for that time and finally, at the end of the day, they are going to want to get a bit of a profit off them as well.

Also many little gas station/mini marts biggest issue is parking, so expecting them all to tie up slots for charging stations is unrealistic.
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Said better than I was trying to say it myself...

So much for my dreams of Sesquipedalian Loquaciousness.
 
mesyn191 said:
Everything you're bringing up is an "of course" when talking about installing a charger as a matter of business so I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

They won't have to tie up all the parking spots either. Many will simply choose to charge enough to get home where they can charge more as necessary from a wall unit. None of this is the nigh insurmountable issue you're making it out to be.
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Fine. Whatever. Done and bored with this conversation already.
 
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